What does a potential Jaire Alexander extension look like?

[CWood21]

What has been routinely discussed throughout this offseason besides Aaron Rodgers is a potential Jaire Alexander extension.  When looking at the top cornerback salaries in terms of AAV (Average Annual Value), you'll see the tiers start to break.  The top 10 salaries are:

1.) Jalen Ramsey - $20.00M/year
2.) Marshon Lattimore - $19.52M/year
3.) Marlon Humphrey - $19.5M/year
4.) Tre'Davious White - $17.25M/year
5.) Darius Slay - $16.67M/year
6.) Byron Jones - $16.5M/year
7.) Xavien Howard - $15.05M/year
8.) James Bradberry - $14.5M/year
9.) Marcus Peters - $14M/year
10.) Trae Waynes - $14M/year

When you're looking at those cornerback deals, you start to see the tiers break up.  You have Tier 1 that is $19M+ and all were 5 year deals.  Tre'Davious White took a lower AAV, but he hits FA a year earlier since he signed a 4 year deal.  Tier 2 is that Tre'Davius White to Byron Jones, and then Tier 3 is everyone below that.  There's probably little reason to believe that Jaire Alexander isn't going to be asking for Tier 1 money, and when you compare situations I think the Marshon Lattimore extension is a near perfect comparison where the Packers don't have affect his 2022 cap flow, but also use that 2022 5th year option as extra flexibility.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/marshon-lattimore-21752/

Marshon Lattimore signed a 5 year extension with a $7.5M extension and a 2021 roster bonus of $9.254M that is effectively restructured as a signing bonus.  That means Lattimore's effectively signing bonus is just over $16.7M.  Now any Saints' fan can correct me (paging @Dome), but I believe that Lattimore's 5th year option was in the neighborhood of $12M so in terms of actual cash flow, Lattimore ended up getting a ~$5.5M raise in 2021 despite the meat of the contract not being touched until 2022.  But the bigger kick in the contract is the 2022 roster bonus set at $15M that will almost assuredly be converted into a signing bonus this offfseason with how bad of a shape the Saints' cap space is.   By tacking 5 year onto the 5th year option, they can spread a signing bonus over the 5th year to effectively give the Saints a "free" year and Marshon Lattimore makes more money in his 5th year option then he was set to make.  Plus, he gets to be the second highest paid cornerback in the NFL behind Jalen Ramsey.

So how does this affect Jaire Alexander?  The Packers can use this same technique to spread out the cap hit of Jaire Alexander, but also fairly compensate Jaire Alexander in a long-term deal.  Let's use 5 years, $98.75M as his baseline in new money which would make him the second highest paid CB behind Jalen Ramsey in the NFL.  They'll need to come up with at minimum $13.3M signing bonus to keep his cap flow the same for the 2022 season, but probably need to give him incentives to bump it up more.  Let's say $17.5M which is a healthy $4M bump over his 2022 salary.  With a minimum salary of $1.035M plus the pro-rated signing bonus you're talking about a cap hit of $4.535M.  The Packers also like to put workout bonuses, so figure another 500k and you're looking at a 2022 cap hit of $5.035M which is cap savings of nearly $8.3M.  But let's look at a potential long-term deal for Jaire Alexander using this structure.

Year | Base Salary | Signing Bonus | Roster Bonus | Workout Bonus | Dead Cap | Cap Savings
2022: $1,035,000 | $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $5,035,000 | $12,465,000
2023: $9,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $15,000,000 | $500,000 | $28,000,000 | $14,000,000
2024: $14,500,000 |  $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $18,500,000 | $8,000,000
2025: $17,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $21,000,000 | $14,000,000
2026: $20,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $24,000,000 | $20,500,000
2027: $23,000,000 | $0 | $0 | $500,000 | $23,500,000 | $23,500,000

Now looking at the overall contract, it's not really a great deal for Jaire Alexander since the Packers can effectively get out after the first year with significant savings, so the Packers will almost certainly need to guarantee a large chunk of that 2023 salary and/or bonus.  The Saints guaranteed the 2022 salary and roster bonus, and if the Packers did the same thing then the savings would adjust as such:

2022: $1,035,000 | $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $5,035,000 | $12,465,000
2023: $9,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $15,000,000 | $500,000 | $28,000,000 | $10,000,000
2024: $14,500,000 |  $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $18,500,000 | $8,000,000
2025: $17,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $21,000,000 | $14,000,000
2026: $20,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $24,000,000 | $20,500,000
2027: $23,000,000 | $0 | $0 | $500,000 | $23,500,000 | $23,500,000

And if they wanted to make it harder to release him, they could partially guarantee his 2024 salary very similarly to Marshon Lattimore.  Lattimore got $2.5M of his $14.5M salary guaranteed, which is roughly 17% of his base salary which would be similar to what I'd expect Jaire Alexander would get.  Overall, Jaire Alexander signs a 5 year extension at $101M with a $17.5M signing bonus and $45M guaranteed.

[squire12]

Lattimore 5th year option was $10.244M

Quote

MAR 19 2020New Orleans (NO) exercised a $10.244 million 5th year option for 2021

 

[squire12]

I still think that is going to be a bit light for what Jaire might be looking to get.  

Lattimore $19.5 aav when the cap was in the $198

with the cap set to make some big jumps, I would think Jaire is going to be looking to be over $20 if not $21aav

[Sandy]

1 hour ago, squire12 said:

I still think that is going to be a bit light for what Jaire might be looking to get.  

Lattimore $19.5 aav when the cap was in the $198

with the cap set to make some big jumps, I would think Jaire is going to be looking to be over $20 if not $21aav

I think this is pretty well in line if the guarantees slip into 2024. It would be a tough contract to pass up.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, squire12 said:

I still think that is going to be a bit light for what Jaire might be looking to get.  

Lattimore $19.5 aav when the cap was in the $198

with the cap set to make some big jumps, I would think Jaire is going to be looking to be over $20 if not $21aav

He can ask for that, but it's not likely.  When Lattimore signed that extension, he was coming off back-to-back seasons as a Pro Bowler and played in 14 games that season.  Jaire played in 4 games last year.  He's not resetting the CB market.

[OzPackfan]

I see a 5 year 97m extension as the minimum. Structure something like this: 

Salaries

2022 - 1.294m fully guaranteed 

2023 - 6.5m fully guaranteed 

2024 - 12.5m fully guaranteed

2025 - 17.5m

2026 - 17.5m

2027 - 22.5m

 

2022 Signing Bonus - 17.5m

2023 Roster Bonus - 12m (converted to signing bonus in March 2023)

 

Workout bonuses:

2024 - 750k

2025 - 750k

2026 - 750k

2027 - 750k

 

Cap hits:

2022 - 4.79m

2023 - 12.4m

2024 - 19.15m

2025 - 24.15m

2026 - 24.15m

2027 - 25.65m

[squire12]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

He can ask for that, but it's not likely.  When Lattimore signed that extension, he was coming off back-to-back seasons as a Pro Bowler and played in 14 games that season.  Jaire played in 4 games last year.  He's not resetting the CB market.

Absolutely he can ask. It's a negotiation. 

Hypothetically,  Jaire and his agent counter with

5 years $107.5M ($21.5M per yer) with $45M in signing bonus and the same base and workout bonus as you have.  

2022 cap hit of $10.55M

What's GB response?

[OzPackfan]

37 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Absolutely he can ask. It's a negotiation. 

Hypothetically,  Jaire and his agent counter with

5 years $107.5M ($21.5M per yer) with $45M in signing bonus and the same base and workout bonus as you have.  

2022 cap hit of $10.55M

What's GB response?

To go back with the original offer and then use the tag for the next 2 years

Anyone who think Jaire should be the highest paid CB has rocks in their head. 

[Sandy]

59 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Absolutely he can ask. It's a negotiation. 

Hypothetically,  Jaire and his agent counter with

5 years $107.5M ($21.5M per yer) with $45M in signing bonus and the same base and workout bonus as you have.  

2022 cap hit of $10.55M

What's GB response?

The Packers don't need a Jaire extension to get under the cap. It does hurt their ability to bring back both Rodgers and Adams while also bringing back Campbell and Douglas, but if negotiations get to a point where they've given him a fair offer and he counters with something ridiculous, they'll just tag him in the offseason and then maybe even tag him again and still come out ahead after three seasons.

Edit: should have read Oz's response before posting pretty much the same thing 😂

Edited March 6, 2022 by Sandy

[squire12]

4 hours ago, OzPackfan said:

To go back with the original offer and then use the tag for the next 2 years

Anyone who think Jaire should be the highest paid CB has rocks in their head. 

I guess that a fair stance.  Certainly makes it harder to get under the cap and retain some players.  Rodgers,  Adams, Campbell, etc.

[squire12]

4 hours ago, Sandy said:

The Packers don't need a Jaire extension to get under the cap. It does hurt their ability to bring back both Rodgers and Adams while also bringing back Campbell and Douglas, but if negotiations get to a point where they've given him a fair offer and he counters with something ridiculous, they'll just tag him in the offseason and then maybe even tag him again and still come out ahead after three seasons.

Edit: should have read Oz's response before posting pretty much the same thing 😂

So GB would be willing to possibly not bring back some key pieces?

[mikemike778]

6 hours ago, squire12 said:

Absolutely he can ask. It's a negotiation. 

Hypothetically,  Jaire and his agent counter with

5 years $107.5M ($21.5M per yer) with $45M in signing bonus and the same base and workout bonus as you have.  

2022 cap hit of $10.55M

What's GB response?

I'm guessing they respond with something higher than their original offer and something less than this.

We pretty much need this done.  And we aren't going to want to go  down the tag routes.  I  can live with a few of the older guys walking away including Adams) but you need your young studs signed up on their second deal.  Obviously if the numbers get absolutely crazy then its a problem but you might need to stretch what you consider to be acceptable numbers.

 

[VonKarman]

4Y/81M in new money with a 25M SB.

[squire12]

1 hour ago, mikemike778 said:

I'm guessing they respond with something higher than their original offer and something less than this.

We pretty much need this done.  And we aren't going to want to go  down the tag routes.  I  can live with a few of the older guys walking away including Adams) but you need your young studs signed up on their second deal.  Obviously if the numbers get absolutely crazy then its a problem but you might need to stretch what you consider to be acceptable numbers.

 

GB has a timeline to get under the cap.  They have a few avenues to do that, but a Jaire extension both helps the cap and secures a young premium position stud for a longer term deal.   

I would think GB would prefer to extend Jaire and push the cap hits down then line with his contract vs the older players that would be getting a 3rd contract.  

 

[Sandy]

6 hours ago, squire12 said:

So GB would be willing to possibly not bring back some key pieces?

That really depends. If you crunch the numbers, they could bring everyone back and not extend Jaire. Depends on how rediculous his contract demands are. 

According to OTC we're 26m over right now. Cut Z, extend Preston, extend Rodgers, extend Amos, cut Cobb, maybe restructure Crosby or cut Lewis and we have enough at that point to bring back Adams, Douglas and Campbell and sign our draft picks. 

Jaire knows that he does not have us over the barrel, and that he's another injury filled season away from taking a huge loss on the open market.