43M's Delusional Mockumentary 3 - Final Pre Draft Mock(s) - Page 5

[warfelg]

That wasn’t the point I was making. You gain compensatory picks. You can’t lose something you don’t have. On top of that there’s teams with big name FAs who will get signed for a lot and those teams will be higher in the formula than us. Likely only JuJu and Edmunds sign big enough contracts to matter. And at that they might not sign for that big money. All to gain what, maybe a 4th? 5th? If we get a 4-5 year starter somewhere because of signing in month 1 over the 4/5th comp pick I wouldn’t be sweating waiting. 

[warfelg]

7 minutes ago, 43M said:

Haeg cancels out Feiler.   

Dupree not playing enough snaps is why we wont get a 3rd.

And if Haeg didn’t play he doesn’t cancel Feiler, meaning Feiler+Dupree gets a 3rd. 

[43M]

2 minutes ago, warfelg said:

And if Haeg didn’t play he doesn’t cancel Feiler, meaning Feiler+Dupree gets a 3rd. 

Pretty sure Haeg didnt impact Dupree at all.

[warfelg]

7 minutes ago, 43M said:

Pretty sure Haeg didnt impact Dupree at all.

To qualify for compensatory picks, teams must end up with more or better qualifying free agents lost than gained in a particular year.
 

Thats from the NFL. Nothing in there is of one for one. The one eliminating the other and the deal for deal is speculation due to bloggers. 

[43M]

5 minutes ago, warfelg said:

To qualify for compensatory picks, teams must end up with more or better qualifying free agents lost than gained in a particular year.
 

Thats from the NFL. Nothing in there is of one for one. The one eliminating the other and the deal for deal is speculation due to bloggers. 

Okay...I dont know exactly how the comp system works, but apparently no one does.    Still, Ive seen nothing to support that Haeg playing impacted both Feiler and Dupree.

[warfelg]

2 minutes ago, 43M said:

Okay...I dont know exactly how the comp system works, but apparently no one does.    Still, Ive seen nothing to support that Haeg playing impacted both Feiler and Dupree.

It’s a combination of contract, so losing Dupree and Feiler based on contract netted a 3rd and 5th. Heags contract at that time was to net Tampa a 7th. Playing time is what comes next. Heags play and contract matched what Fielers did. When you factor in the playoffs and Fieler not making it, Diptera contract value and playing time cut into that 3rd. 

[43M]

3 minutes ago, warfelg said:

It’s a combination of contract, so losing Dupree and Feiler based on contract netted a 3rd and 5th. Heags contract at that time was to net Tampa a 7th. Playing time is what comes next. Heags play and contract matched what Fielers did. When you factor in the playoffs and Fieler not making it, Diptera contract value and playing time cut into that 3rd. 

Either way, most projections I saw, even at the end of the season, had us getting a 4th for Bud due to him not recovering fast enough and it cutting in to his snap count.

So Im just going to pretend Haeg didn't affect that to maintain some sanity.  

[43M]

This is my 2^nd mock of 2022.

This one is my “wishful thinking” mock, and pretty much what I would do if I were calling the shots.

I will do one more mock next week, which will be closer to what I think WILL happen, even though I don’t want to think about that.

Here is my mindset while doing this draft….   (Sorry about some of the formatting.  I typed this up in word first and it was wonky pasting it over)

T    1) This is one of the few times I recall the Steelers going into the draft with glaring holes.    This year, we kind of have 2   (Safety and WR).     I cant believe they haven’t signed someone at either position, even just to give them some peace of mind.

2     2) There is no chance Im willing to pay DJ the money he will command next year.    I don’t trust him one bit.   He has skills, but he isn’t dependable.    Let someone else overpay him.

3     3) While there is some potential at QB in this draft, none of them are worth the risk of a first round pick.    And honestly, there are only three QBs Id draft before day 3.

         4) If we don’t draft OL early, which I doubt we will, I wouldn’t take a single OLineman the entire draft.   We have enough developmental and backup caliber lineman.   We don’t need more this year.   Maybe grab a UDFA, but thats it.

5     5) The Steelers shouldn’t be trading up at all.   Trade down all you want, but we don’t have the picks to be moving up, especially for QB with major question marks.

 

 

 

Steelers trade Dionte Johnson to the Falcons for 2023 3^rd round pick.

 Steelers trade 1(20) to the Lions for 1(32) and 3(66).

1 (32)  WR George Pickens - Georgia
2 (52)  S Lewis Cine - Georgia
3 (66)  DL Phidarian Mathis – Alabama
3 (84)   WR Tyquan Thorton - Baylor
4 (138) EDGE DeAngelo Malone – Western Kentucky
6 (208) NT Otito Ogbannia - UCLA
7 (225) RB Tyrion Davis-Price – LSU
7 (241) CB Damarion Williams – Houston

 

Post Draft FA Signings

UDFA QB to replace Dwayne  😥.  I don’t know QBs this late so I’ll let you all fill in that blank.

RB Sony Michel  - You can replace him with pretty much anyone.   Just some cheap FA RB that will barely play.

WR DeSean Jackson - I doubt he would come here, and some will be against it due to his age, but I feel like he could be 1 year stop gap while the rookie WRs learn.

EDGE Tak McKinley -  Blah blah blah, not an all pro backup, I get it.    Just a cheap vet to replace what we lost for a year.

Edited April 17, 2022 by 43M

[Dcash4]

I’m not a huge fan of trade mocks, but I would love it if it broke that way. Also like the players, so overall a good mock. I do think OT is very much in play in the middle, developmental rounds  but I also don’t think it’s necessary so it’s also likely to get skipped. 

I don’t get the DJ trade, even speaking just from a value standpoint. I’m obviously a person who is higher on him than (seemingly) the consensus, but that’s not a good value swap IMO. Even with just an okay year he is likely to get a 3rd round comp based on the receiver market, so you are just saying “that’s fine” and moving the pick up a year. If he has a good/great year you could either get the comp or tag him and flip him for much higher value (2nd, 2nd+)….or if he is much improved with better QB play, pay him consistently to market and have a really, really good receiver. 

I just don’t think it’s necessary here. Do the same draft, but keep DJ. That’s a bet that he completely falls apart, which is possible. But I think it’s more likely we see much better output with a QB and an offense that can work down the field. And that would net you far better value. 

Im fine trading DJ, but you would need better value at this point, I don’t think a future 3rd would benefit us enough when it’s likely what his value would remain after a mediocre season. 

[AFF]

@43M

Not enough Value for DJ…a 2nd is fine but I can see the franchise tag for him in 2023 if no long term deal is worked out.

I also agree with @Dcash4…a mid round OT makes a lot of sense…the Steelers like Moore/Chuks and Haeg is the swing OT. They can find out for sure onMoore at LT and the worst case for 2023 the new guy can be the new swing OT which isn’t a bad value.

I think they really like Pickens…if they don’t go QB in the 1st, I think the pick is him.

[Chieferific]

I dig it. Trading down and picking up a 3rd is huge. Like I said, that gap between 3 and 4 is huge so picking up an extra 3rd is great. Compared to my mock, Burks>Pickens but Cine>Cook so Tomayto-Tomato. Mathis was my on my list too as was Tenn Butler. All 3 would have an impact. I tried to find a spot for a RB but was unable to (I really like Ealy to compliment Harris). Ross at #6 instead of a 2nd DL and it would be like I picked the mock myself (that's meant to be a compliment).  I'd be happy with this. 

[MOSteelers56]

I understand people are low on Diontae, but trading him for next years 3rd is crazy. That’s pretty much less than what we got for Martavis Bryant.

[Chieferific]

1 minute ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I understand people are low on Diontae, but trading him for next years 3rd is crazy. That’s pretty much less than what we got for Martavis Bryant.

It's certainly easier to swallow in imaginary land so I don't necessarily disagree. But, I don't see a scenario where they resign him. Tag him maybe but not resign. So I'm ok with trading him in rebuild year. The Raiders overpaid. That was pretty obvious day one. I don't know if you can get a 2nd for him right now. While not out of the realm of possibility, a 3rd seems more likely to me. Having the 3rd next year I assume is for the purposes of trading up for a QBOTF. But again, it is a trade that would make you pinch your nose and regrettably accept. 

[MOSteelers56]

29 minutes ago, Chieferific said:

It's certainly easier to swallow in imaginary land so I don't necessarily disagree. But, I don't see a scenario where they resign him. Tag him maybe but not resign. So I'm ok with trading him in rebuild year. The Raiders overpaid. That was pretty obvious day one. I don't know if you can get a 2nd for him right now. While not out of the realm of possibility, a 3rd seems more likely to me. Having the 3rd next year I assume is for the purposes of trading up for a QBOTF. But again, it is a trade that would make you pinch your nose and regrettably accept. 

I don’t know how accurate it is anymore, but I always think of a pick next year to be valued at -1 from a current pick. So a 3rd next year would be a 4th this year. If we can’t get more than a 4th for Diontae we should just keep him and take the comp pick the next year. I think he’ll be pretty sought after. I think the minimum I’d take for Diontae is a 3rd this year and a 3rd next year. Even that’d be tough to swallow. 
 

Also, it’s nice to see you back and slumming it with us again, @Chieferific

[Chieferific]

6 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I don’t know how accurate it is anymore, but I always think of a pick next year to be valued at -1 from a current pick. So a 3rd next year would be a 4th this year. If we can’t get more than a 4th for Diontae we should just keep him and take the comp pick the next year. I think he’ll be pretty sought after. I think the minimum I’d take for Diontae is a 3rd this year and a 3rd next year. Even that’d be tough to swallow. 
 

Also, it’s nice to see you back and slumming it with us again, @Chieferific

I can't really argue with any of that. It's prolly the better take but I'm old and crotchety so when I hear an exorbitant amount of money for a dynamic but inconsistent WR I just want them to get off my lawn. And thanks for the welcome back.