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CW21's Green Bay Packers Mock Offseason v2022.02


CWood21

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Was going to do another mock based on a Rodgers trade-based mock, but since I procrastinated I'll give you guys one last mock draft with FA.

Scenario:
Aaron Rodgers has already announced he's returning.  I'm operating under the assumption that the 4 year, $200M with $153M guaranteed is relatively accurate.  Right now, the Packers are $45.8M over the cap.

Free Agency

Tenders & Tags:
WR Davante Adams - Franchise Tag

WR Allen Lazard - ROFR
WR Malik Taylor - ERFA
TE Dominique Dafney - ERFA
OT Yosh Nijman - ERFA
ILB Krys Barnes - ERFA

New Cap Space: $48,262,202

Nothing on here appears overly crazy.  Davante Adams has already received a franchise tag, so the Packers will likely continue to seek a long-term deal that lowers his cap hit for 2022.  Allen Lazard is the only RFA, so the question comes do the Packers apply a second round tender in hopes of getting a team to cough up a SRP or do they slap a ROFR tender on him and save ~$1.5M.  The rest of the ERFAs seem like most logical starting with Yosh Nijman and Krys Barnes.  I think the Packers' coaching staff likes Malik Taylor and Dominque Dafney enough to tender them, but the rest of them are buried on the depth chart and probably a chance to turnover the bottom of their roster.

Release:
WR Randall Cobb
EDGE Za'Darius Smith

New Cap Space: $26,232,914

Randall Cobb isn't coming back with an $9.5M price tag.  That's simply not happening.  I do think that either a pay cut, or a release and subsequent re-signing is likely but we're talking around $2.5M for next year instead of his ballooned salary this year.  The fact that Green Bay hasn't released either Za'Darius Smith or Preston Smith suggests to me that the Packers are still talking extension and/or trades with them, and likely one ends up getting the axe while the other one stays.  Again, I think Za'Darius Smith is the odd one out unless he's willing to take a MASSIVE paycut which seems unlikely.

Extensions:
QB Aaron Rodgers (4 years, $200MM, $158M GTD)
2022: $1,120,000 | $5,070,116 | $0 | $500,000 | $19,173,569 | $25,863,685
2023: $10,000,000 | $5,070,116 | $36,250,000 | $500,000 | $7,673,568 | $59,493,684
2024: $10,400,000 | $5,070,116 | $37,990,000 | $500,000 | $0 | $53,960,118
2025: $11,800,000 | $5,070,116 | $39,720,000 | $500,000 | $0 | $57,090,118
2026: $12,410,000 | $5,070,116 | $41,430,000| $500,000 | $0 | $59,410,118

WR Davante Adams (3 years, $75M, $35M signing bonus, $45.5M GTD)
2022: $3,000,000 (GTD) | $7,000,000 | $500,000 | $10,500,000
2023: $16,000,000 (Partial GTD) | $7,000,000 | $500,000 | $23,500,000
2024: $19,500,000 | $7,000,000 | $500,000 | $27,000,000

Y4 (void): $0 | $7,000,000 | $0 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000
Y5 (void): $0 | $7,000,000 | $0 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000

 

EDGE Preston Smith (3 years, $37.75M, $10M signing bonus, $20M GTD)
2022: $3,000,000 (GTD) | $9,250,000 | $400,000 | $12,650,000M
2023:  $10,350,000 (Partial GTD) | $2,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $15,350,000
2024: $9,500,000 | $2,000,000 | $1,150,000 | $12,650,000
2025: $0 | $2,000,000 | $0 (VOID)
2026:  $0 | $2,000,000 | $0 (VOID)

CB Jaire Alexander (5 years, $101.5M, $17.5M signing bonus, $42.535M GTD)
2022: $1,035,000 (GTD) | $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $5,035,000

2023: $9,000,000 (GTD) | $3,500,000 | $15,000,000 (GTD) | $500,000 | $28,000,000
2024: $14,500,000 |  $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $18,500,000
2025: $17,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $21,000,000
2026: $20,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $0 | $500,000 | $24,000,000
2027: $23,000,000 | $0 | $0 | $500,000 | $23,500,000

S Adrian Amos (3 years, $27.5M, $10M signing bonus, $14.5M GTD)
2022: $1,500,000 (GTD) | $6,582,000 | $500,000 | $8,582,000
2023: $6,000,000 (Partial GTD) | $3,582,000 | $1,000,000 | $10,582,000
2024: $7,500,000 | $3,582,000 | $1,000,000 | $12,082,000
2025: $0 | $4,664,000 | $0 (VOID)

New Cap Space: $22,942,145

Very similar to the extensions I mentioned at some point this offseason.  I'll start with the Rodgers' extension.  Rodgers' 2022 cap flow for the 2022 season is just under $27.5M despite his cap hit being nearly $46.6M.  By converting his base salary into a signing bonus, the Packers can spread that cap hit over 5 years with a new 4 year extension to lower his 2022 cap hit down to just under $26M.  In return, Aaron Rodgers gets a unique deal where his roster bonus guarantees for the following year effectively locking him into Green Bay until he decides to retire.  For example, his 2023 roster bonus would guarantee in the Xth day of the 2022 league year, his 2024 roster bonus would guarantee the Xth day of the 2023 league year, etc.  The only one that doesn't operate that way would be his 2026 roster bonus which guarantees on that year.  Rodgers' deal is said to be unique but also team friendly, and Patrick Mahomes' contract is probably the only one I think might be a valid contract comparison and his is a BUNCH of roster bonuses.

The Adams' extension really has changed much.  It makes him the highest paid WR outside of Nuk, but it does give him the highest signing bonus of any WR.  Preston Smith's contract comparison didn't change much for me, so I'm expecting that $13M/year AAV for him.  With the guarantees, the Packers effectively break even by releasing Preston Smith after his first year, so there's not a ton of of motivation for the Packers to release him after 2022.  As I mentioned in the other thread, I think Marshon Lattimore's contract is the clear comparison for Jaire Alexander.  The Packers don't affect Jaire's 2022 cap flow, and he actually gets about a $4M pay bump by agreeing to this extension.  That 2023 roster bonus will almost certainly be converted into a signing bonus, so it's effectively a delayed signing bonus.  And Amos' extension isn't altered I don't think.

Re-Signings:
WR Randall Cobb (1 year, $2.5M, $1.5M signing bonus)
2022: $1,000,000 | $200,000 | $500,000 | $1,700,000
2023: $0 | $200,000 | $0 (VOID)
2024: $0 | $200,000 | $0 (VOID)
2025: $0 | $200,000 | $0 (VOID)
2026: $0 | $200,000 | $0 (VOID)

TE Robert Tonyan (1 year, $4.5M, $2M signing bonus, $2M GTD)
2022: $2,000,000 | $500,000 | $500,000 | $3,000,000
2023: $0 | $500,000 | $0 (VOID)
2024: $0 | $500,000 | $0 (VOID)
2025: $0 | $500,000 | $0 (VOID)

ILB DeVondre Campbell (3 years, $22.5M, $8M signing bonus, $12M GTD)
2022: $1,000,000 | $1,600,000 | $500,000 | $3,100,000
2023:  $5,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $500,000 | $7,600,000
2024:  $6,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $500,000 | $8,600,000
2025: $0 | $1,600,000 | $0 (VOID)
2026: $0 | $1,600,000 | $0 (VOID)

P Corey Bojorquez (2 year, $3.5M, $1M signing bonus)
2022: $1,000,000 | $200,000 | $0 | $1,200,000
2023: $1,400,000 | $200,000 | $100,000 | $1,7000,000
2024: $0 | $200,000 | $0 (VOID)
2025: $0 | $200,000 | $0 (VOID)
2026:$0 | $200,000 | $0 (VOID)

New Cap Space: $10,134,107

Again, not a whole lot has changed.  Right now, the Packers have enough cap space to sign their draft class outright plus they'll have their in-season flexibility with roughly $3.2M being attached to the draft picks.  That would leave about $6.9M in cap space for in-season moves.  I think we're more likely to get that cap space created via restructures.  The Packers could restructure Dean Lowry (~$3.5M) and Billy Turner (~$3M) to create the necessary cap space for in-season moves much like they did last year.  Plus, I think they could also get Mason Crosby to accept a pay cut.  

Free Agency:
WR Allen Robinson (3 years, $54M, $25M signing bonus)
2022: $1,500,000 | $5,000,000 | $500,000 | $7,000,000
2023: $11,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $500,000 | $16,500,000
2024: $15,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $500,000 | $20,500,000
2025: $0 | $5,000,000 | $0 (VOID)
2026: $0 | $5,000,000 | $0 (VOID)

Yes, I do think Allen Robinson will receive more lucrative offers then this, but I think there could be real motivation for the Packers and Allen Robinson to agree to a deal this time around.  And I think watching the contract that Davante Adams will eventually sign will stick in the back of his mind.  For the Packers, they get a clear #2 WR for Aaron Rodgers.  No more excuses from Aaron in that he doesn't have the offensive weapons around him.  With Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and now Allen Robinson, he's got plenty of targets to throw to.  For Robinson, not only does he have a chance to be wildly more successful then he was with Mitchell Trubisky, but he also has the ability to cash in for one final mega deal after his age 30 (if he's released after the 2022 season) or age 31 seasons.

New Cap Space: $3,959,107

Future Salary Cap Implications:
2023: $42,018,752
2024: $14,232,377

That 2023 salary cap number looks really, really bad especially when the Packers went from that before the season, but there's a ton of flexibility there with restructures.  The Packers will be able to restructure Aaron Rodgers (~$34M), Jaire Alexander (~$19M), Davante Adams (~$10M), etc.  If the 2 year timeline is accurate for Aaron Rodgers, then we're probably looking at 2024 going down as a miserable season as they pay the piper for the salary cap manipulation.

NFL Draft

Round One (28th Overall)
George Karlaftis [EDGE;  Purdue]

One of the top EDGE is going to be available on the board at 28.  After the Combine, I think Travon Walker goes off the board in the top 15 picks.  I think Kayvon Thibodeaux and Aidan Hutchinson are top 10 locks, but beyond those 3 I think you're going to see a LOT of variation among your pass rushers on the board.  I think the Packers could look to grab an OT like Trevor Penning here or a DL like Perrion Winfrey if one of the EDGE don't fall down the board, but I think one of them is going to and it's probably George Karlaftis who is being slept on hard this draft process.  Even if he's not viewed as an elite athlete at EDGE, he's still got more then enough athleticism to make an impact and he's a capable run defender with strong hand usage.  I kinda view him as the anti-Rashan Gary, and I've seen comparisons to Ryan Kerrigan which I don't hate.

Round Two (59th Overall)
Jalen Pitre [DB; Baylor]

I'm expecting this pick to be used on a player who fits a particular role in the Packers' scheme whether it be on offense or defense, and given that the Packers have already filled the hole at WR2 with Allen Robinson, I'd imagine that the STAR position is going to loom large given that the Packers let Rasul Douglas walk.  Jalen Pitre can fit into that STAR position, or they can push Darnell Savage into that role on a more permanent basis.  Either way, I'd imagine we're going to see a DB as one of our top picks in the first three rounds.  Overall, I think he's got a bright future in the NFL if he's put on a team where his DC will utilize him correctly.

Round Three (92nd Overall)
Abraham Lucas [OT; Washington State]

This is probably a bit on the optimistic side as I think he goes off the board early on Round 3, but if he's there on the board he fits the Packers' offense OL mold and he's probably the long-term future at RT after Billy Turner.  The Packers could opt to grab an IOL if they view Elgton Jenkins as their RT moving forward, so it wouldn't surprise me if they went that way to free up this pick for another position.  I think the Packers are going to look to solidify the future of their OL.  The only three constants you know are going to be there is David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Josh Myers.  Jon Runyan has probably done enough to secure one of the starting OGs spots, but the other guard spot is open if they move Jenkins to RT.

Only doing 3 rounds of draft today.

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Did you make this for me?

Lol, was literally going to do a mock tomorrow where we land Robinson as basically our one "all in" FA get and the attack defense in the draft. Might go with some different picks but Karlaftis is a heck of a player.

Close to a dream off-season for the guy who's been clamoring for another good WR along side Adams. 

I'm sold. 

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1 minute ago, packfanfb said:

Did you make this for me?

Lol, was literally going to do a mock tomorrow where we land Robinson as basically our one "all in" FA get and the attack defense in the draft. Might go with some different picks but Karlaftis is a heck of a player.

Close to a dream off-season for the guy who's been clamoring for another good WR along side Adams. 

I'm sold. 

Oh. So you give up on Olave just like that eh?  :)

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18 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Did you make this for me?

Lol, was literally going to do a mock tomorrow where we land Robinson as basically our one "all in" FA get and the attack defense in the draft. Might go with some different picks but Karlaftis is a heck of a player.

Close to a dream off-season for the guy who's been clamoring for another good WR along side Adams. 

I'm sold. 

Yes.  And this would be the near dream scenario for Green Bay.  I think we're probably looking at that next tier of EDGE rushers, but I'm holding out hope that one of them falls.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I think we're probably looking at that next tier of EDGE rushers, but I'm holding out hope that one of them falls.

Karlaftis would be appealing too because he turns 21 in April. However, if he's gone, I think Mafe is definitely in play at pick 28. He's 23 so a bit older than we'd like but his measureables are right up Gute's alley.

 

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3 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Karlaftis would be appealing too because he turns 21 in April. However, if he's gone, I think Mafe is definitely in play at pick 28. He's 23 so a bit older than we'd like but his measureables are right up Gute's alley.

It's a shame Cameron Thomas hurt himself at the Combine.  Thought he was a darkhorse candidate for our pick.  Interested to see what the Pro Day numbers are.

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Love it. Matches up very similarly to what I was thinking.

I'm heavily in the Allen Robinson camp, I think he's sick of terrible QBs. I'll be lining for him until he puts a pen to paper this offseason, with or without us.

I like how the void years are pretty well spread out so not one year gets footed with a huge bill. You're right about next year...we're in fantastic cap shape (in addition to the ones you mentioned, Jones, Bak and Clark are all guaranteed to be restructured - next year's team is going to be incredible since we can flex in FA after those savings.)

I'm more believing the report that GB offered him that deal and he turned it down. I think that McAfee and his "source...es" are our most trusted source when it comes to what's going on with Aaron.  But even if he does sign that record breaker, this shows a way to build a SB caliber team around it. Well done.

 

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3 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Love it except for the CB room.

We're one injury away from starting Kabian Ento or Shemar Jean-Charles. Yikes.

This is what happens when you pay WR2. Our secondary depth goes to hell. Even with Pitre on board, he's not playing outside.

I'd much rather have Douglas than A-Rob. 

They can always bring Sully back for few mil tops. I'd obv like Douglas back as well but if your plan is to win the SB with Adams-Lazard-Cobb/Rodgers as your WR room, not sure you even bother showing up.

Now if you're going WR in round 1, perhaps with a slight move up to get an Olave/Wilson/Burks, then you could convince me otherwise. 

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36 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

They can always bring Sully back for few mil tops. I'd obv like Douglas back as well but if your plan is to win the SB with Adams-Lazard-Cobb/Rodgers as your WR room, not sure you even bother showing up.

Now if you're going WR in round 1, perhaps with a slight move up to get an Olave/Wilson/Burks, then you could convince me otherwise. 

You're at 15-18m a year for A Rob. Bring Douglas back for 8 per, sign Will Fuller to a 1 year deal for 6-7m with a void year, draft a WR on day 2. That's a much better team.

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19 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

You're at 15-18m a year for A Rob. Bring Douglas back for 8 per, sign Will Fuller to a 1 year deal for 6-7m with a void year, draft a WR on day 2. That's a much better team.

Robinson won't cost much in year one. Rodgers isn't staying with the Packers for more than 1-2 years. If the Packers clear $25-30m in cap (which they can if they want to move the money), they could probably bring back Sul and sign ARob. This all depends on how far Gute is actually willing to take this. 

Regardless, Robinson is a guarantee to move the needle in the passing game. That's a home run swing on offense. If Stokes takes a jump, you still have two top CBs, can have Sully as a safety net at nickel and can fill in the back end with cheap depth.  

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2 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Robinson won't cost much in year one. Rodgers isn't staying with the Packers for more than 1-2 years. If the Packers clear $25-30m in cap (which they can if they want to move the money), they could probably bring back Sul and sign ARob. This all depends on how far Gute is actually willing to take this. 

Regardless, Robinson is a guarantee to move the needle in the passing game. That's a home run swing on offense. If Stokes takes a jump, you still have two top CBs, can have Sully as a safety net at nickel and can fill in the back end with cheap depth.  

Sullivan stinks and is still not an outside option, neither is SJC, meaning if Jaire or Stokes go down, it's Ento. That's not an all in team, that's worse than Gunter out there.

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