Potential Targets

[MWil23]

Here's what's interesting to me in regards to the F.O. and drafting past players:

Myles: Hit about all 5 benchmarks

Baker: Hit 3.5 out of 5 (Age, decent but not awesome testing, which the emphasis for QB isn't really about testing per our F.O. philosophy)

Chubb: Hit 4 out of 5 (Age)

Ward: Hit 5 out of 5

I really don't know what to make about the metrics our F.O. uses to evaluate QB after considering it. Rodgers, Russell Wilson, TB12, were all JUCO guys or didn't meet the age threshold. (Rodgers was young)

Watson, Allen, Lamar, and Mahomes all hit 4+ of these markers and we passed on them/went another direction (can't fault the Myles pick over Mahomes).

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

10 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Here's what's interesting to me in regards to the F.O. and drafting past players:

Myles: Hit about all 5 benchmarks

Baker: Hit 3.5 out of 5 (Age, decent but not awesome testing, which the emphasis for QB isn't really about testing per our F.O. philosophy)

Chubb: Hit 4 out of 5 (Age)

Ward: Hit 5 out of 5

I really don't know what to make about the metrics our F.O. uses to evaluate QB after considering it. Rodgers, Russell Wilson, TB12, were all JUCO guys or didn't meet the age threshold. (Rodgers was young)

Watson, Allen, Lamar, and Mahomes all hit 4+ of these markers and we passed on them/went another direction (can't fault the Myles pick over Mahomes).

I think QB is a bit different.  Some of the same stuff applies, early breakout age, productivity, big school/conference, etc.

Age is a lesser issue imo, a lot of QB’s stay 4-5 years.

I don’t think size is nearly as valued as some fans.  As long as they’re within normal limits, cool. I think it’s more looking for possible physical limitations. Obviously everyone wants a guy with Lamar’s athleticism, but I think most teams really just want a guy who can avoid the rush, make plays outside of the pocket, etc.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

12 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Here's what's interesting to me in regards to the F.O. and drafting past players:

Njoku, Peppers and Coleman were all 5/5 iirc 

 

[MSURacerDT55]

Perrion Winfrey

Logan Hall

Travis Jones

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 hour ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

Perrion Winfrey

Logan Hall

Travis Jones

I’ll just lumps the IDL guys in here.

 

Jordan “Geordan” Davis: 4/5 (age, but shouldn’t be too big of a concern as he was a day 1 contributor)

DeMarvin Leal: 4/5 (age)

DeVonte Wyatt: 4/5 (age, will 24 this month)

Perrion Winfrey 3/5* (late breakout and hasn’t tested fully)

Travis Jones 3/5 (age and conference)

Logan Hall 0/5* (age, conference, late breakout age, production, hasn’t tested fully)

 

Phidarian Mathis: 3/5* (age, hasn’t fully tested, but vert wasn’t promising.  Giving the benefit of the doubt with breakout age considering other DL talent at Alabama)

Haskell Garrett: 2/5* (age, breakout age, hasn’t fully tested)

Matthew Butler: 2/5 (age, breakout age, testing)

John Ridgeway: 1/5* (age, breakout age, testing not complete but not promising, not terribly productive)

Edited March 14, 2022 by LETSGOBROWNIES

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I think QB is a bit different.  Some of the same stuff applies, early breakout age, productivity, big school/conference, etc.

Age is a lesser issue imo, a lot of QB’s stay 4-5 years.

I don’t think size is nearly as valued as some fans.  As long as they’re within normal limits, cool. I think it’s more looking for possible physical limitations. Obviously everyone wants a guy with Lamar’s athleticism, but I think most teams really just want a guy who can avoid the rush, make plays outside of the pocket, etc.

No doubt, but I personally believe that if you're going to be targeting a "smaller" QB, and even if you're targeting a "bigger" one, I'd like to see someone who is a plus athlete. I don't need a Lamar or Allen, but a Watson, Mahomes, Rodgers, Herbert, or even worst case scenario a Burrow in today's league is probably the benchmark...unless you have a cerebral wizard who can align the OL, read a defense, and slide protections accordingly, while having elite pocket navigation.

Just now, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Njoku, Peppers and Coleman were all 5/5 iirc 

 

These things really bothered me about 2 of those 3:

*Peppers was a LB in college basically after being exposed in pass coverage.

*Njoku had dropsies

*Coleman ran 2 routes in college and never was asked to perimeter block

I personally respectfully disagree with our FO on what they consider "great film". I get some will say I'm nitpicking here, but that's personally how I feel and felt at the time.

[MSURacerDT55]

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I start work at 9, I’ll get those then.  

This is pretty dope what you are doing btw

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

4 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

This is pretty dope what you are doing btw

Thanks man!  We’ll see how accurate it is in a month lol 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

 

7 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

These things really bothered me about 2 of those 3:

*Peppers was a LB in college basically after being exposed in pass coverage.

I think Peppers, like many UM players suffered from a failure of coaching. 
 

I thought he had a clear cut role day 1 as a box safety/sub package LB.  Obviously Greggggg decided to play him at extra free safety

7 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

*Njoku had dropsies

Yeah. Inconsistent hands are why he lasted as long as he did. If his film was better he’s a top 10-15 pick. 

7 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

*Coleman ran 2 routes in college and never was asked to perimeter block

True.  He also posted 2k yards and a good bit of hardware.  Most players are gonna have some schematic issues that don’t project well to the league.  If you look at his play style in college and strength you’d hope he could develop into a competent blocker.

7 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I personally respectfully disagree with our FO on what they consider "great film". I get some will say I'm nitpicking here, but that's personally how I feel and felt at the time.

I think there’s a difference between great film and elite film.  There aren’t a ton of elite guys in any particular draft. Every player is gonna have some warts.

[MWil23]

7 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

 

I think Peppers, like many UM players suffered from a failure of coaching. 
 

I thought he had a clear cut role day 1 as a box safety/sub package LB.  Obviously Greggggg decided to play him at extra free safety

I have no issue with Peppers in a box safety role. I personally wouldn't draft a box safety in the first round at all, but he wasn't a terrible pick. He was a capable NFL starter.

7 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Yeah. Inconsistent hands are why he lasted as long as he did. If his film was better he’s a top 10-15 pick. 

Also a fair take based upon the value of where we drafted him.

7 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

True.  He also posted 2k yards and a good bit of hardware.  Most players are gonna have some schematic issues that don’t project well to the league.  If you look at his play style in college and strength you’d hope he could develop into a competent blocker.

https://ras.football/2019/12/26/corey-coleman-ras/

The athletic measuarables and age was there, but he always felt like a 2nd Round guy to me, and it didn't help that I liked Taylor Decker, albeit everyone else in that 1st Round kinda sucked or disappointed tbh.

7 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I think there’s a difference between great film and elite film.  There aren’t a ton of elite guys in any particular draft. Every player is gonna have some warts.

Yeah, especially given the slot they're taken.

This is my one "major" issue with trading down. While we recouped a lot of value, and more picks = more chances for a great player, if we stay put at 12 we also draft Watson, then likely the following year if we flip the Texans record with ours (4th overall), we still end up with Ward and Chubb (the Osweiler pick).

Granted, I'm glad we don't have Watson for a plethora of reasons.

[mtmmike]

15 hours ago, NudeTayne said:

Since you're already up...maybe do the top receivers as well and any outlier players--I mentioned Jordan Davis above, but this could also be guys like Charles Cross if our FO knows something we don't about Conklin--who our FO might have their eye on at 13 or a small trade-back.

Excellent point how about draft Cross then trade Conklin on a team friendly contract if he is healthy. 

This would ensure the line is together for the next foreseeable future plus have multiple high picks into the future. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’ll just lumps the IDL guys in here.

 

 

Jordan “Geordan” Davis: 4/5 (age, but shouldn’t be too big of a concern as he was a day 1 contributor)

DeMarvin Leal: 4/5 (age)

DeVonte Wyatt: 4/5 (age, will 24 this month)

Perrion Winfrey 3/5* (late breakout and hasn’t tested fully)

Travis Jones 3/5 (age and conference)

Logan Hall 0/5* (age, conference, late breakout age, production, hasn’t tested fully)

Phidarian Mathis: 3/5* (age, hasn’t fully tested, but vert wasn’t promising.  Giving the benefit of the doubt with breakout age considering other DL talent at Alabama)

Haskell Garrett: 2/5* (age, breakout age, hasn’t fully tested)

Matthew Butler: 2/5 (age, breakout age, testing)

John Ridgeway: 1/5* (age, breakout age, testing not complete but not promising, not terribly productive)

@MSURacerDT55 those are the IDL

Edited March 14, 2022 by LETSGOBROWNIES

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

It’s important to keep in mind that we’re not going to be able to draft all 5/5 guys.  Those players are often R-2 picks and I think that will be the case this year.

Once you get to rounds 3-7, you’re going to have to start looking at more flawed prospects (obviously).  
 

I think the things you’re less likely to see from this FO is a willingness to look at guys from smaller schools and late breakout players. Bryant is really the only exception here and he won the Maxwell.
 

I don’t see them having much interest in 24 year old rookies. 23 perhaps, but I think they’d have to check every other box, and even then only day 3.

 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

What I also find interesting is despite all of the smoke and nonsense, the last 2 drafts this FO has done exactly what most fans have assumed in R1-2. No curveballs.

2020: we needed a tackle and a S and we took both.  We had a lot of names at both positions, but they took the obvious needs and players at those positions who met the criteria we’re discussing. Followed guardrails positionally, but that’s not much of a surprise as no S was worth a top 10 pick.

2021: I think Newsome and JOK were probably the two most commonly mocked players and we took them both.  The takeaway here for me is they definitely seemed to follow their guardrails and took the CB before the LB despite very similar prospects talent wise.

Applying that info to this year, what can we project?  I think most fans are expecting either a WR or a DE.  I think those are the first two picks.  Using the guardrails, I’m expecting DE in R1, followed by WR.  I don’t think it’s out of the question to move up again to get a guy they really like in R2.

[Bonanza23]

1 hour ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

This is pretty dope what you are doing btw

Agreed. Now I’m left wondering who took over @LETSGOBROWNIES account.