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San Fran will most likely trade out of #1 (or #2).


JustPlainNasty

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34 minutes ago, JustPlainNasty said:

They need a WR to pair up with Jimmy G.  They need OL help and CBs. I don't feel there is an elite WR from what Ive seen in this years class. Some good ones but not elite. 

Play along....What would it take for us to get that top spot?

I can't imagine the Steelers FO giving up anything like three 1s or that type of deal for one pick unless they LOVED the guy.  JPN, who do you like best out of this years' class?  Who would be worth making that kind of sacrifice for?

I don't recall what was given up by the Eagles & Rams in 2016 to get up that far.  Obviously they didn't have as far to go.  I could see them jumping up like 10 spots, a la Polamalu, but probably not all the way.  

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They will be pick top 3.

We will likely be picking bottom 6 or so.

Its not going to happen, but playing along, it would take like 3 first round picks worth of value. 

There isnt a single upcoming player in the draft that is worth that.  Not one.  Even if there was, the Steelers wouldnt do it.   They covet their draft picks too much to give up THAT much.

Most I could see us doing is trading ONE future first (or maybe a 2nd and a future 2nd) to trade up into the teens IF it was someone they were EXTREMELY high on.

The only type of player worth trading up from the late 20s to a top 5 pick would be a QB....but there isnt a single QB Id take that high even if I had a top 5 pick.  Id trade down and take one.     Personally, I think we can sit tight and get one, or maybe trade a our second to move up to the late teens or so.    No chance I trade more than that in this years draft.

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6 hours ago, FourThreeMafia said:

 maybe trade a our second to move up to the late teens or so.    No chance I trade more than that in this years draft.

that's the route I hope we go if they find a QB they love... 2018 1st, 3rd and a high pick from 2019 to get us picking around 12-15... believe KC gave up more for mahomes tho so the steelers better love that QB   lol

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I'd look to history to help decide along with utilizing the NFL trade scale to help reference where the trade were in relation to the points system. I'd value future picks as middle of the round picks as that would be the average(#17 in each round to be conservative) since we don't know how each team will finish year to year. 

Last year:

The Texans traded #25 and their 2018 1st round pick to move up to #12. The Texans traded 1670 points for 1200; 139% of the value. 

The Chiefs traded #27 and their 2018 1st and 3rd round picks to move up to #10. The Chiefs traded 1815 points for 1300; 139% of the value.

The Bears traded #3, #67, #111, and their 2018 3rd round pick to move up to #2. The Bears traded 2712 for 2600; 104% of the value.

The Falcons traded #31, #95, and #249 to move up to #26. The Falcons traded 720 points(#249 doesn't have a value) for 700; 103% of the value. 

Total: 6917 for 5800; 119% of the total value. 

The Steelers currently are #31, so based on that it would likely take 3570 points or in an example of draft picks; #31, #63, #95, our 2019 1st round pick, 2nd round pick, 3rd round pick, 5th round pick, and 2020 first round pick for 3569.5 points. 

That said, Ben wasn't a top 10 pick, Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, Aaron Rodgers was picked in the mid 20's, Derek Carr was a second round pick, etc. 

Ryan Leaf was a #1 pick, Jamarcus Russell was a #1 pick, Tim Couch, David Carr, etc

For further reference on the crap-shoot that is the draft here's a fun one: 

https://www.si.com/nfl/photos/2013/10/03/nfl-draftquarterbacksfirst-roundbusts

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3 hours ago, PghCrew said:

I'd look to history to help decide along with utilizing the NFL trade scale to help reference where the trade were in relation to the points system. I'd value future picks as middle of the round picks as that would be the average(#17 in each round to be conservative) since we don't know how each team will finish year to year. 

Last year:

The Texans traded #25 and their 2018 1st round pick to move up to #12. The Texans traded 1670 points for 1200; 139% of the value. 

The Chiefs traded #27 and their 2018 1st and 3rd round picks to move up to #10. The Chiefs traded 1815 points for 1300; 139% of the value.

The Bears traded #3, #67, #111, and their 2018 3rd round pick to move up to #2. The Bears traded 2712 for 2600; 104% of the value.

The Falcons traded #31, #95, and #249 to move up to #26. The Falcons traded 720 points(#249 doesn't have a value) for 700; 103% of the value. 

Total: 6917 for 5800; 119% of the total value. 

The Steelers currently are #31, so based on that it would likely take 3570 points or in an example of draft picks; #31, #63, #95, our 2019 1st round pick, 2nd round pick, 3rd round pick, 5th round pick, and 2020 first round pick for 3569.5 points. 

That said, Ben wasn't a top 10 pick, Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, Aaron Rodgers was picked in the mid 20's, Derek Carr was a second round pick, etc. 

Ryan Leaf was a #1 pick, Jamarcus Russell was a #1 pick, Tim Couch, David Carr, etc

For further reference on the crap-shoot that is the draft here's a fun one: 

https://www.si.com/nfl/photos/2013/10/03/nfl-draftquarterbacksfirst-roundbusts

I think we all know that getting a QB high doesnt guarantee anything, but you absolutely have a better chance to find a franchise QB (or a great player in general) earlier in the draft than later.  

I just hope they dont force a pick at QB.   If they really really like someone...so be it.   Otherwise, wait on it.    The worst thing you can do IMO is get desperate for a QB and start reaching on them.     Because if you take a QB you arent particularly high on early out of desperation, you are stuck with that QB for at least 3 years while you wait for them to progress into something you may have never truly believed they could be.     I mean, you can be wrong on players you were truly high on as well, but I just hope we are patient with the process.     As much as a fear life after Ben....Id rather wait a couple years to find the right guy than draft someone who isnt that good and just hope they are the right guy.

I thought this QB class was going to be much better than its turning out.     I dont know that there is a single QB in next years draft Id actually trade up for.  

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12 hours ago, PghCrew said:

Ryan Leaf was a #1 pick, Jamarcus Russell was a #1 pick, Tim Couch, David Carr, etc.

While I get your overall point, as a Vols fan I must take this moment to correct you. We have nothing else going to cling to at the moment. The #1 pick of that draft was future HOF'r Peyton Williams Manning. 

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2 hours ago, Chieferific said:

While I get your overall point, as a Vols fan I must take this moment to correct you. We have nothing else going to cling to at the moment. The #1 pick of that draft was future HOF'r Peyton Williams Manning. 

True, I always remember more so that he was drafted right along with Manning and then of course his locker room temper tantrums.

I understand the clinginess as well. Don't worry though you still got Josh Dobbs. 

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On 11/8/2017 at 9:23 PM, PghCrew said:

I'd look to history to help decide along with utilizing the NFL trade scale to help reference where the trade were in relation to the points system. I'd value future picks as middle of the round picks as that would be the average(#17 in each round to be conservative) since we don't know how each team will finish year to year. 

Last year:

The Texans traded #25 and their 2018 1st round pick to move up to #12. The Texans traded 1670 points for 1200; 139% of the value. 

The Chiefs traded #27 and their 2018 1st and 3rd round picks to move up to #10. The Chiefs traded 1815 points for 1300; 139% of the value.

The Bears traded #3, #67, #111, and their 2018 3rd round pick to move up to #2. The Bears traded 2712 for 2600; 104% of the value.

The Falcons traded #31, #95, and #249 to move up to #26. The Falcons traded 720 points(#249 doesn't have a value) for 700; 103% of the value. 

Total: 6917 for 5800; 119% of the total value. 

The Steelers currently are #31, so based on that it would likely take 3570 points or in an example of draft picks; #31, #63, #95, our 2019 1st round pick, 2nd round pick, 3rd round pick, 5th round pick, and 2020 first round pick for 3569.5 points. 

That said, Ben wasn't a top 10 pick, Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, Aaron Rodgers was picked in the mid 20's, Derek Carr was a second round pick, etc. 

Ryan Leaf was a #1 pick, Jamarcus Russell was a #1 pick, Tim Couch, David Carr, etc

For further reference on the crap-shoot that is the draft here's a fun one: 

https://www.si.com/nfl/photos/2013/10/03/nfl-draftquarterbacksfirst-roundbusts

for every "hidden gem"  QB success you can point to similar draft position where 5/10 who didn't make more than an inury replacement start and another 4.9 who didn't make a C2.

 

as much a crapshoot as a top10 QB is, it's much higher hit rate than hoping to find a later gem- even at about 20% success.

 

With that said,  if Steelers and Ben truly believe he can play at a decent level 2 more years, I wouldn't mind selling the farm for a non-QB impact player on D if they think they have one in trading up.   even a slightly declinging BigBen with this D + 1 more player can compete against a very weak Pats team (in spite of coach tomlin and his stubbornness)

 

Odds are they're going to have to suck for a year or two and hit the draft lottery to replace BigBen and be SB caliber again after he retires.

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, SlevinKelevra said:

With that said,  if Steelers and Ben truly believe he can play at a decent level 2 more years, I wouldn't mind selling the farm for a non-QB impact player on D if they think they have one in trading up.   even a slightly declinging BigBen with this D + 1 more player can compete against a very weak Pats team (in spite of coach tomlin and his stubbornness)

We don't to sell the farm to get a big impact player on D.  IF they are not going to target Ben's replacement next year, they can get a difference maker in the draft.  Colbert and Tomlin have done a great job of late and if they can have another A draft, we should be sitting pretty for next year.  

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10 minutes ago, JLambert58 said:

We don't to sell the farm to get a big impact player on D.  IF they are not going to target Ben's replacement next year, they can get a difference maker in the draft.  Colbert and Tomlin have done a great job of late and if they can have another A draft, we should be sitting pretty for next year.  

Dupree  Tuitt  Hargrave Heyward  Watt 

  Shazier  Williams (worst player out of 11 ... only on field in base and 1st/2nd down)

Burns     Haden

  Davis  Derwin James (allows to play a lot of single deep S looks,  all over field in nickel)

 

 

   Tuitt Hargrave Watt

      Dupree Shazier 

Burns    Sutton    Hilton  Haden

Davis  Derwin James

 

*drool*

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