Packfanfb's "Quick 5-Round" Mock

[packfanfb]

Packers currently projected at around $17.8m in cap space (details of Reed's deal still pending). 

Pre-Draft Moves

TRADE - Packers send 2023 6th Round pick (conditional to 5th) to Miami for DeVante Parker (WR)

Gutey has been patient on the FA WR front, but I think Parker would be a good get for the price. Not overly expensive (cap hits under $7m for the remaining two years of his deal), and the Packers could always restructure this year's cap hit if needed. He's still 29 and is two years removed from a 72-1,202-9 season when FitzMagic was his QB (probably the best QB he's played with in 7 years with Miami). Adds another WR to mix with good size (6'3" 210 lbs) who can play on the perimeter. Shouldn't cost much in draft capital because Miami's WR room is loaded with the addition of Hill and there's really no place for Parker moving forward (would have done 6th rounder this year but we don't have one so we give a 2023 6th that can become a 5th if Parker hits certain benchmarks).

DRAFT

Round 1 (Pick 22) - Chris Olave - WR (OSU) - 6'1", 187 lbs

Every time I think about mixing it up and picking a different WR here, I keep coming back to Olave as the perfect fit. Especially after bringing in another bigger guy like Parker to go with Lazard, the Packers need their "Jennings" type receiver, a guy who can get over the top but also be the precise route-runner and intermediate guy they need. Olave is that dude. Pair him with Parker and Lazard and you immediately have a solid top 3. 

Round 1 (Pick 28) - Cameron Thomas - EDGE (SDSU) - 6'4", 267 lbs

Thomas isn't the twitchiest guy off the edge and we haven't seen him run yet (private pro day in early April after missing Combine with hammy). I love the fit for GB because when we lost Z, we lost our Mr. Versatile who can play on the edge or rush inside. Thomas isn't Z, but he's versatile AF. Played everywhere with SDSU and produced everywhere. Led the FBS with 72 pressures last season. High football IQ and an advanced pass rush technician who comes with a plan. Would add immediate EDGE depth, as well as potential to slide inside in rush packages.  

Round 2 (Pick 53) - Phidarian Mathis - DL (Bama) - 6'4", 310 lbs

Even with the addition of Reed who fits the 3T/4T role, we add Mathis who is a 5T prospect who can spell Lowry and replace him next season if we let him walk. Mathis has good anchor and should be a good rotational piece on what should be the deepest DL the Packers have had in several years. 

Round 2 (Pick 59) - Sean Rhyan - OG/OT (UCLA) - 6'5", 321 lbs

Packers like versatile guys on the OL and Rhyan fits the bill. Mostly played OT at UCLA, but could play either in the NFL. Fits the athletic profile (RAS 8.26 for OT and 9.49 for OG). As an added bonus, the Packers just hired Ramsen Golpashin (former UCLA OL analyst for the last 3 years) as an offensive quality control coach. Should immediately compete for the starting RG spot with Newman and worst case is our new swing OT until Jenkins returns and supplants Nijman.

Round 3 (Pick 92) - Bryan Cook - S (Cinci) - 6'1", 206 lbs

Versatile safety who should be able to immediately fill the dime LB role due to his size and toughness. Physical player who likes to hit. Deep safety class and Cook is right in the mix of guys who should go on Day 2. 

Round 4 (Pick 132) - Charlie Kolar - TE (ISU) - 6'6", 252 lbs

Had been going with Bellinger in this spot because he's the better blocker coming out, but Kolar may be the more dynamic prospect in the passing game and isn't a bad blocker. Has potential to be a complete TE, and demonstrated his athletic ability at the Combine (RAS 9.76). 

Round 4 (Pick 140) - Velus Jones, Jr. - WR (Tenn) - 6'0", 204 lbs 

Our potential MVS replacement with plus-plus ST skills. Could be our top gunner-PR-KOR guy in 2022 even if he never sees the field as a WR. Has deep speed (4.31). Biggest knock on his is that he'll be 25 as a rookie, but in the 4th round, who cares. Bisaccia's favorite pick of the draft. 

Round 5 (Pick 171) - Akayleb Evans - CB (Missouri) - 6'2", 198 lbs

Been in my last couple mocks as well. 9.63 RAS and the length to be a viable roster replacement for King and add to ST. 

 

[gopackgo972]

[beekay414]

Don't think Kolar makes 132, so go Bellinger there. Gute was at Ohio State so, if Olave's there, it's a shot. If he passes, he saw something. If not, I like it. I've been on the Olave to GB train for 2+ years now. Though, I think we're going to end up with Pickens. Better RAS, bigger player, more dynamic, true #1 potential.

Not going to knock it though. Mine would be a bit different, and I basically posted a mini-mock earlier in the draft thread, but I don't hate this one.

Edited March 24, 2022 by beekay414

[R T]

I brought up Velus Jones Jr. a few days back as a day 3 player to keep an eye on for the Packers, could be a plus STer from day one. 

The Olave 1st round pick seems to have over run the internet, but just don't believe Gutes and staff are as gaga about him as fans are. My guess is that one of Burks, London or Pickens have a greater likelihood of being a Packer than Olave does. 

[packfanfb]

7 hours ago, R T said:

I brought up Velus Jones Jr. a few days back as a day 3 player to keep an eye on for the Packers, could be a plus STer from day one. 

The Olave 1st round pick seems to have over run the internet, but just don't believe Gutes and staff are as gaga about him as fans are. My guess is that one of Burks, London or Pickens have a greater likelihood of being a Packer than Olave does. 

I'd be fine with Burks or Pickens in that spot, I'm just partial to Olave because I think he's the best Day 1 route runner in the group and I think our offense needs that guy if we're going with bigger guys around him like 13 and potentially a guy like Parker. 

Burks would be fun because of his versatility, and Pickens could be the biggest boom guy overall, but I think Olave is a sure thing even if the ceiling is slightly shorter.

[Packerraymond]

Have a mock I was going to post today with a Parker trade and the same first round, so I will be editing that now, thanks a lot. 

[R T]

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

I'd be fine with Burks or Pickens in that spot, I'm just partial to Olave because I think he's the best Day 1 route runner in the group and I think our offense needs that guy if we're going with bigger guys around him like 13 and potentially a guy like Parker. 

Burks would be fun because of his versatility, and Pickens could be the biggest boom guy overall, but I think Olave is a sure thing even if the ceiling is slightly shorter.

The next time Gutes selects a lower ceiling guy with a 1st round pick will be his first, history tells us that Gutes probably isn't as high on him as the public is.    

[packfanfb]

12 minutes ago, R T said:

The next time Gutes selects a lower ceiling guy with a 1st round pick will be his first, history tells us that Gutes probably isn't as high on him as the public is.    

Who would be your pick between those 3, Pickens?

[Arthur Penske]

Like it a lot. Kolar is on my wish list.

I think it will likely take more than that to get Parker, however.

[R T]

52 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Who would be your pick between those 3, Pickens?

I don't have a pick, nor do I have any draft crushes, but I do attempt to figure out Gutes picks.  It is doubtful that any WR moves him enough to be taken in the 1st round but if there is it probably is London followed by Burks. London has the kind of physical traits that would excite him, whereas Burks is, of all the WR's, the perfect fit for MLF's offense. 

In trying to read what moves Gutes is going to make we need to understand Gutes, he is a scout first and scouts trust the people they have built relationships with and have earned that trust. TT had tons of faith in his Pac-12 guy and for years we could count on high picks coming from there because of TT trust in his guy. And he delivered with Rodgers, Matthews, Clark yet since Gutes took over the Pac-12 has become Siberia to the Packers draft room. So, London might not be getting a strong look either. On the flipside Gutes was the southeast scout for a lot of years and Arkansas and Georgia were in his territory and those relationship are strong and trusted. Now before anyone goes off the rails here claiming the player is all that matters, that is true. The pool of players is built first and pared down from there, but the relationships are a huge part of the paring down process.     

[Sandy]

Really sound. Refreshing since a lot of your picks after Olave haven't been seen in a lot of the mocks around here.  There's a realistic element to this one.

I was thinking a 6th should do it for Parker too. Fits very comfortably with our remaining cap (my estimate comes out to $13.8m left after Reed and Tonyan).

In the draft, hits all our major needs. The mid round emphasis on ST is good. It would be nice to wake up after the draft to a roster like this.

[jleisher]

I really like this one.  Thanks!

[mikemike778]

On 3/24/2022 at 2:08 PM, R T said:

The next time Gutes selects a lower ceiling guy with a 1st round pick will be his first, history tells us that Gutes probably isn't as high on him as the public is.    

As things stand,  WR is one of the biggest need positions we have ever had going into a Gutey draft as we need both starters and depth urgently. Its also maybe the only critical need on the roster.

With that in mind and the fact we have two 1st round picks (so he could go more upside with the other), it would make sense if Gutey went safer with that pick than he usually does as (depending on what the WR room looks like at the time) its maybe a pick he really can't afford to miss on.

The draft last year did seem to be a more 'immediate impact over upside' focused last year as well. 

 

[R T]

3 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

As things stand,  WR is one of the biggest need positions we have ever had going into a Gutey draft as we need both starters and depth urgently. Its also maybe the only critical need on the roster.

With that in mind and the fact we have two 1st round picks (so he could go more upside with the other), it would make sense if Gutey went safer with that pick than he usually does as (depending on what the WR room looks like at the time) its maybe a pick he really can't afford to miss on.

The draft last year did seem to be a more 'immediate impact over upside' focused last year as well. 

 

What the conversion was about was 1st round picks so I'm not going to let you just slip last year's whole draft in there like that is what we where talking about. Eric Stokes was drafted because he was a very high ceiling guy and not because he was some high end college producer. Gutes understands that a team needs to hit home runs with 1st round picks not singles, he will continue to swing for the fences because it is the right thing to do. Even if it makes some fans uncomfortable.   

[mikemike778]

21 hours ago, R T said:

What the conversion was about was 1st round picks so I'm not going to let you just slip last year's whole draft in there like that is what we where talking about. Eric Stokes was drafted because he was a very high ceiling guy and not because he was some high end college producer. Gutes understands that a team needs to hit home runs with 1st round picks not singles, he will continue to swing for the fences because it is the right thing to do. Even if it makes some fans uncomfortable.   

Fair point.

To be fair though in previous drafts Gutey seemed all about upside all the through the drafts with the crazy RAS scores whereas last year, there seemed more emphasis on safer play now picks. Get your point with Stokes and the first rounder being an upside pick but there is still reason to think his priorities may have changed slightly which could transition to the first rounders in 2022 (or one of them).

It looks like we probably have a two year window now at which point Rodgers may retire and have a leaving present of lots of dead money so we do need guys who will contribute in those 2 years - particularly receiver.