Is Paying top WRs $28-30m/year the new normal?

[PossibleCabbage]

In the 2022 season, the collective bargaining agreement set the salary cap at $208.2m.  Now full disclosure, I firmly believe the percentage of the revenue the NFL players should receive is significantly more than half, but what's collectively bargained is collectively bargained.  You're only going to have about $208.2 million to spend, give or take, and you have to divide it between your entire roster.  Quarterbacks commanding ~15% of the entire salary cap is not new, but in 2021 the only player who's not a quarterback who got into that "one player commands 15% of the entire pie" range was TJ Watt, who at least plays defense.

You can certainly make a case for elite players being hard to come by at every position, and you pay what it costs to keep them, but we did just see two teams with highly paid quarterbacks trade away their best wide receivers, who immediately signed contracts comparable to "elite QB money".  You could also make a case to allocating ~15% of the salary cap to one player on offense and one player on defense if both are worth it.  But if you have that top QB and that top WR, do you really want to devote 30% of your money to 22% of your offense?

So is this going to be a thing that's going to proliferate, where teams that paid their QB top of the line money are going to jettison their best receivers to teams that have not paid their QBs top of the position money?  Like is Cincinnati likely to lose Chase after they pay Burrow?  Or is this an aberration due to temporary circumstances, and will correct itself sooner or later (possibly when teams end up regretting spending QB money on non-QBs)?

[BayRaider]

We live in a world the commentators are making 20M a year now. 

McVay is probably gone after a couple more years, extension or not. 

[RaidersAreOne]

Every elite player at every position is going to continue to "become the highest paid ever". Give it a couple years until Kupp, Jefferson, Chase, etc are up and they'll be big compared to Hill and Adams. 

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

Inflation. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships

[Matts4313]

I made a comment in the Cowboys forum and I think WRs will start to be like running backs, but drafting in the first round for the 5th year option. What I mean by that, is they get drafted, keep them on a rookie contract, then send them on their merry way. Either trade them or get a fat comp pick. 

^^^ Thats for any team with a QB on a franchise deal ^^^

[Soko]

It’ll keep going up for every position. In 2007, the highest paid QBs were making less than the top tier of tight ends do in 2022. 

[massraider]

Tyreek and Adams aren't getting 28-30 mill either.  

Real quick:

The guys who announce these deals, the players agents are the sources. In return for getting the scoop, all the information guys announce the pumped up contract numbers, that have bogus years on the end. 

For example:
Davante Adams

5 years, 140 mill.  Literally half of that is in the final two years, with base salaries of 35 million each year. So it's actually a 3 year deal for around 70 mill. 

Tyreek's deal will no doubt include a 4th year with some crazy base salary. 

Why do people keep falling for this?

[Daniel]

 

[Danger]

9 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Every elite player at every position is going to continue to "become the highest paid ever". Give it a couple years until Kupp, Jefferson, Chase, etc are up and they'll be big compared to Hill and Adams. 

I think what's crazy about it right now is we saw a massive jump from like 19-21 Million immediately all the way up to 28-30 Million. Usually this stuff I feel is more gradual.

[MikeT14]

I think two years ago this question was asked at the $20 million dollar mark, so yeah, it probably is. 

[Tk3]

So this is another one of those conversations where the dollar amount is a sticker shock, but we really should be thinking about it in terms of % of cap rather than dollars. Because the dollars are always going to go up

 

In 2019, the Browns/Texans/Bears had the most invested in the WR position. They were all in the 14-15% of cap range for the entire WR group.

In 2023, Reek, Adams, and Hopkins are all around 14% by themselves alone. And the Bucs/Dolphins are in the 25-30% of total cap spent on WR groups.

 

So it definitely IS going up. The counter argument is - over the past several seasons, we're seeing significant increase in WR talent entering the NFL. From a simple supply and demand standpoint, I'm a bit surprised we're seeing WR salaries go up in this way.

For my personal opinion, I think I'd CONSIDER paying an elite player elite money (Hill/Adams type) What I would NOT consider, is paying the 2nd/3rd tier guys the money they are getting. The Kirk/Williams/Golladay types of contracts are the ones that make no sense. Either spend big on elites or draft replacements, but don't go halfway on a guy who is good, but not elite

[Mox]

1 hour ago, massraider said:

Tyreek and Adams aren't getting 28-30 mill either.  

Real quick:

The guys who announce these deals, the players agents are the sources. In return for getting the scoop, all the information guys announce the pumped up contract numbers, that have bogus years on the end. 

For example:
Davante Adams

5 years, 140 mill.  Literally half of that is in the final two years, with base salaries of 35 million each year. So it's actually a 3 year deal for around 70 mill. 

Tyreek's deal will no doubt include a 4th year with some crazy base salary. 

Why do people keep falling for this?

If you just take the 28-30 mil part out his point remains. Paying so much of your cap to a WR may lead to top WR's getting moved more often when paired with QB's who have also been paid.

[biggie.]

Wide receivers are a dime a dozen. Most overvalued position now.

[PossibleCabbage]

1 hour ago, Bullet Club said:

If you just take the 28-30 mil part out his point remains. Paying so much of your cap to a WR may lead to top WR's getting moved more often when paired with QB's who have also been paid.

I mean, if you get ten of those guys who command 10% of the cap, you can't field a team.  At some point you have to make sacrifices to "go cheaper" at a position.  We know this happened at running back.

But you can absolutely make a case for paying the elite QB, left tackle, edge rusher, and cornerback what it costs to keep them.  Teams might go cheap at DT, but if you have an Aaron Donald you're not likely to get another one so you pay him what he's worth.  I don't think Adams and Hill are "Aaron Donald" level talents at their respective positions though.

[Nabbs4u]

1 hour ago, biggie. said:

Wide receivers are a dime a dozen. Most overvalued position now.

Seems like this statement changes posistionally every few years.  First it was with TE's, then RB's, now WR's.

It's real evident this isn't the case for those teams who have none! Just saying.