Fantasy Sleepers this year?

[Dr LBC]

12 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I agree, Hamler may not be very good for fantasy just because the Broncos have so many mouths to feed. I love Courtland Sutton in round 5/6 and think he has a chance to be this years breakout WR. 

I'm personally not that high on Gallup either considering how late he tore his ACL and the fact that he's not going to be available when the season starts. I like James Washington as a potential sleeper, he's not someone that I'd draft but I'll definitely have him high on my early season waiver watchlist. 

Yeah there's still a long way to go and things will change before the season but I've started to make a list of guys that I like in the later rounds. 

So far my list includes: 

RBs:

• Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England - He looked better than Damien Harris last season and I think there's a good chance he surpasses him as RB1 for the Patriots this year. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Harris is moved since he's in a contract year and the Pats drafted two RB.

• Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas - Looked significantly more explosive than Zeke and had a significant role in the receiving game. Apparently the Cowboys are going to use him more in the slot and since he's going into a contract year I'm assuming they'll try to get all they can out of him.

• Darrell Williams, RB, Arizona - He was RB18 last year with the Chiefs in a RB by committee approach and projects to be the Cardinals primary backup and 3rd down RB. He's someone that should score at a decent level with Conner playing and projects as a potential starter if Conner misses any time.

• Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota - Doesn't have a ton of value in a backup role but has shown he can be a 3 down back if Cook misses any time. 

• Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles - Doesn't have a ton of value in a backup role but has shown he can be a 3 down back if Akers misses any time. 

WRs:

• Russell Gage, WR, Tampa Bay - The Bucs lost Gronk/AB and Godwin is likely going to miss the first portion of the season. Gage received a sizeable deal from the Buccaneers and is apparently someone that Brady pushed the team to sign. 

• Tim Patrick, WR, Denver - Projects as the Broncos #3 WR but I think he fits better with Wilson than Jeudy does and considering they just signed him to a sizeable extension I think he'll be a big part of their offense. 

• Jarvis Landry, WR, New Orleans - With the uncertainty surrounding Michael Thomas' return/health Landry could potentially be the Saints #1 WR this season. 

• Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati - Boyd has been one of the most consistent WR's in the league over the last few seasons and with Higgins coming off of a shoulder injury I could see an uptick in production. 

• Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit - The most talented rookie WR coming into the league and worth a late round flier even if he is going to miss the first portion of the season. 

I'll go on record how in saying that, outside of 10-team or smaller leagues (which people on here know I'm against... because anything smaller than 12 teams flatly isn't competitive), come draft time (i.e. mid-preseason) no one's going to be getting Sutton after the 4th round; his stock is going to inflate off hype alone (may well be deserved hype, IMO, but it'll be the hype as a "sleeper" that will vault his stock).

I think Darrell Williams' stock is more boosted by Conner's injury history than by assumed opportunity going into the Edmonds role - and I say this as someone who suffered through owning Edmonds in a pivotal league last season.  Outside of PPR formats I don't see the Edmonds role as being worthy of a roster spot on it's own.  However, Conner's penchant for picking up niggling injuries in Pittsburgh when given the full load has me willing to set Williams as a top-end handcuff, and probably more worth an end-of-roster spot for me over the likes of Mattison (unless you're a Cook owner) because the later just isn't going to offer you much of anything worthy in the week-to-week unless Cook picks up an injury.

Gage has habitually been one of my late round grabs - not sure he's going to get the TD output or that he's going to get the AB lines, but he'll get the AB routes and usage.

I want to do more research into Landry, but I'm not sure his skillset fits as well as people might want to think with Jameis' strengths.

And Jameson is currently projected for a mid-October, at best, return to action.  In re-draft leagues, I'm not drafting that.  I'll earmark to put in a WW claim a week or two in advance of him returning, but I'm not burning the roster spot for that first month of the season.

Also, I'm not totally sold it's going to result in a return to his old snap-share, but Zeke, by all accounts, played last season with a partially-torn knee ligament - which would explain both the lack of explosiveness and the yielding of snaps to Pollard in order to limit his workload.  All that said, with Zeke even if he is at full health once more, from what I can tell the "out" in his contract is in 2023 in his age-27 year, the same year Pollard is a free agent.  I don't think Jerruh is going to be dictating usage, but if Kellen Moore is being viewed as the "new Sean Payton" by Jones (i.e. the one he's going to make sure doesn't get away this time), if Pollard is more Moore's guy, I can see them wanting to make sure he gets the necessary snaps to feel wanted.  To me, at this point, Pollard is a poor man's Kareem Hunt - though I'm still erring on Hunt's side because of proven usage.

[NYRaider]

13 minutes ago, Dr LBC said:

I'll go on record how in saying that, outside of 10-team or smaller leagues (which people on here know I'm against... because anything smaller than 12 teams flatly isn't competitive), come draft time (i.e. mid-preseason) no one's going to be getting Sutton after the 4th round; his stock is going to inflate off hype alone (may well be deserved hype, IMO, but it'll be the hype as a "sleeper" that will vault his stock).

I think Darrell Williams' stock is more boosted by Conner's injury history than by assumed opportunity going into the Edmonds role - and I say this as someone who suffered through owning Edmonds in a pivotal league last season.  Outside of PPR formats I don't see the Edmonds role as being worthy of a roster spot on it's own.  However, Conner's penchant for picking up niggling injuries in Pittsburgh when given the full load has me willing to set Williams as a top-end handcuff, and probably more worth an end-of-roster spot for me over the likes of Mattison (unless you're a Cook owner) because the later just isn't going to offer you much of anything worthy in the week-to-week unless Cook picks up an injury.

Gage has habitually been one of my late round grabs - not sure he's going to get the TD output or that he's going to get the AB lines, but he'll get the AB routes and usage.

I want to do more research into Landry, but I'm not sure his skillset fits as well as people might want to think with Jameis' strengths.

And Jameson is currently projected for a mid-October, at best, return to action.  In re-draft leagues, I'm not drafting that.  I'll earmark to put in a WW claim a week or two in advance of him returning, but I'm not burning the roster spot for that first month of the season.

Also, I'm not totally sold it's going to result in a return to his old snap-share, but Zeke, by all accounts, played last season with a partially-torn knee ligament - which would explain both the lack of explosiveness and the yielding of snaps to Pollard in order to limit his workload.  All that said, with Zeke even if he is at full health once more, from what I can tell the "out" in his contract is in 2023 in his age-27 year, the same year Pollard is a free agent.  I don't think Jerruh is going to be dictating usage, but if Kellen Moore is being viewed as the "new Sean Payton" by Jones (i.e. the one he's going to make sure doesn't get away this time), if Pollard is more Moore's guy, I can see them wanting to make sure he gets the necessary snaps to feel wanted.  To me, at this point, Pollard is a poor man's Kareem Hunt - though I'm still erring on Hunt's side because of proven usage.

Sutton was WR19 playing with Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and Brandon Allen. His ADOT has been one of the highest in the league so I think he'll fit well with  Wilson.

Before Edmonds got hurt in the week 9 game against the 49ers he had 76 carries (9.5 per game)/37 targets while Conner had 94 carries (11.7 per game)/5 targets. Through the first 8 weeks in a PPR format Edmonds was averaging 12.1 ppg while Conner was averaging 11.4 ppg. Conner came on strong when Edmonds went down with an injury but was extremely TD dependent before that because Edmonds got almost all of the receiving work.

I think Gage will see a solid amount of targets, especially early on before Chris Godwin returns. The Buccaneers didn't give him 3 yr/$30M to not use him. 

Early reports on Landry have been extremely positive and Thomas' health is still a major question mark. The only other WR that projects to see a healthy target share is rookie Chris Olave. 

I'd still consider Williams with a late round flier just because he has a chance to be the best rookie WR, if I don't he's definitely someone that I'm keeping high on my waiver priority.  

The Cowboys only save $5M while eating $11M in deadcap if they cut Zeke in 2023 so they're likely not going to move on until 2024 at the earliest. Which leads me to believe that they'll try to get as much usage out of Pollard next season before he moves on in free agency.

Edited June 20, 2022 by NYRaider

[BayRaider]

People are sleeping on John Metchie. He’ll be back way earlier than Jameson, he’s already running. Should be back the first couple weeks of the season. Mille loved his slot in college. And I love Metchie’s tape. Imagine if you can get this year’s Amon Ra St Brown in the 18th Round. 

[NYRaider]

4 hours ago, BayRaider said:

People are sleeping on John Metchie. He’ll be back way earlier than Jameson, he’s already running. Should be back the first couple weeks of the season. Mille loved his slot in college. And I love Metchie’s tape. Imagine if you can get this year’s Amon Ra St Brown in the 18th Round. 

I don't like Metchie in redraft leagues but he's definitely someone that will be on my early waiver wire watch list.

[BayRaider]

17 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I don't like Metchie in redraft leagues but he's definitely someone that will be on my early waiver wire watch list.

Talking about bestball. Metchie will be a slot WR, he’s a second round talent which is what you look for (1st or 2nd round talent), being undervalued because of an ACL tear and being on the Texans, Mills loves going to the slot, and I think Metchie is better than Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan and should be Mills #2 target. 

Metchie doesn’t have elite speed but he has good speed, and in the slot you don’t need speed. He has the route running and release package to be good right away in his rookie season. In the 18th Round, the value is too good to pass up IMO. 

[BayRaider]

Nykeim Hines is a big sleeper you can get in the 11th round this year. I wouldn’t draft him in Half PPR such as Underdog, but he’s one of my main sleepers in Full PPR such as Drafters and FFPC. 

In 2020 Hines finished as a Top 25 PPR RB, even with Taylor on the team. Last year they had Wentz who hates checking down. This year they have Matt Ryan who loves checking down. The Colts Offense overall should be much improved and score more fantasy points in general. 

Hines is being drafted as RB41 on average, and could finish Top 30. 

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

Nykeim Hines is a big sleeper you can get in the 11th round this year. I wouldn’t draft him in Half PPR such as Underdog, but he’s one of my main sleepers in Full PPR such as Drafters and FFPC. 

In 2020 Hines finished as a Top 25 PPR RB, even with Taylor on the team. Last year they had Wentz who hates checking down. This year they have Matt Ryan who loves checking down. The Colts Offense overall should be much improved and score more fantasy points in general. 

Hines is being drafted as RB41 on average, and could finish Top 30. 

Darrel Williams was RB18 with the Chiefs last year and is stepping into the Chase Edmonds role as the Cardinals pass catching back.

[NYRaider]

3 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Talking about bestball. Metchie will be a slot WR, he’s a second round talent which is what you look for (1st or 2nd round talent), being undervalued because of an ACL tear and being on the Texans, Mills loves going to the slot, and I think Metchie is better than Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan and should be Mills #2 target. 

Metchie doesn’t have elite speed but he has good speed, and in the slot you don’t need speed. He has the route running and release package to be good right away in his rookie season. In the 18th Round, the value is too good to pass up IMO. 

I loved Metchie as a prospect, how many rounds does your best ball league have?

[BayRaider]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

Darrel Williams was RB18 with the Chiefs last year and is stepping into the Chase Edmonds role as the Cardinals pass catching back.

Don’t sleep on James Conner. He was a great receiving back last year. And my RB13. Cardinals with Hollywood added and McBride, I don’t think they support enough volume for two receiving backs. Tons of mouths to feed. I still like Williams, but as a RB5 in the 15th Round. 

[BayRaider]

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I loved Metchie as a prospect, how many rounds does your best ball league have?

20 in Drafters (PPR, $20 per team), 20 in FFPC (PPR, $125 per team), 18 in Underdog (Half PPR, $25 per team). Not the biggest underdog fan though, their customer service is total trash is you ever run into a problem. Plus I prefer full PPR. 

[NYRaider]

11 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Don’t sleep on James Conner. He was a great receiving back last year. And my RB13. Cardinals with Hollywood added and McBride, I don’t think they support enough volume for two receiving backs. Tons of mouths to feed. I still like Williams, but as a RB5 in the 15th Round. 

In the first 8 weeks of last season Chase Edmonds averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game and James Conner averaged 11.4. He only had 5 targets during that stretch while Edmonds had 37. He was like Damien Harris to start the year, TD or bust for fantasy purposes. 

[NYRaider]

• Robert Woods, WR, Titans (ADP: 124) - The ACL tear isn't ideal but he's reportedly already participating in OTA's and projects to be the Titans #1 option in the passing game. Tennessee has shown that they can support a top tier WR with AJ Brown over the last couple of seasons so I'm optimistic about Woods. Over the last 4 seasons Woods finished as WR11 (16.6 ppg), WR14 (15.5 ppg), WR13 (15.3 ppg) and was WR17 (15.2 ppg) before he got hurt last season. In the 9th/10th round I don't think that you're going to find a better option.  

[Sllim Pickens]

22 hours ago, NYRaider said:

• Robert Woods, WR, Titans (ADP: 124) - The ACL tear isn't ideal but he's reportedly already participating in OTA's and projects to be the Titans #1 option in the passing game. Tennessee has shown that they can support a top tier WR with AJ Brown over the last couple of seasons so I'm optimistic about Woods. Over the last 4 seasons Woods finished as WR11 (16.6 ppg), WR14 (15.5 ppg), WR13 (15.3 ppg) and was WR17 (15.2 ppg) before he got hurt last season. In the 9th/10th round I don't think that you're going to find a better option.  

I just grabbed him in the 9th in a best ball draft.  

[NYRaider]

17 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I just grabbed him in the 9th in a best ball draft.  

He's going to be one of the better value picks this year, imo. Dude has literally been a top 15 WR for the last 4 seasons. 

[BayRaider]

14 hours ago, NYRaider said:

He's going to be one of the better value picks this year, imo. Dude has literally been a top 15 WR for the last 4 seasons. 

The reason I’m high on him is Treylon Burks sucks imo, Burks is valued as a 7th Rounder and Woods a 9th. If Burks busts, Woods should have been valued as a 5th Rounder.