Fantasy Sleepers this year?

[Sllim Pickens]

2 hours ago, The BILLievers said:

He's not technically a sleeper but a sleeper as to where he's going right now. I really think Gabriel Davis will be a top 10-12 WR at the end of the season. He's going to get 90% of the snaps, in a pass heavy offense, where Diggs and Knox get a lot of attention. Not to mention he's a good deep threat that's 6'-3" 227 pounds. I expect a 1000 yard season and 10+ TDs.

His catch conversion percentage scares me, but its mainly because he is a deep threat which are lower percentage passes.  He may get targets but has only converted 55% of his targets each of his first two years.  So even if he gets Beasley's 112 targets,  he will end with 66 catches which might get him that 1,000 yards if he maintains his 15 yards per catch however I don't see him getting those targets since he is the deep threat (hence the YPC) and Beasley averaged 8 YPC which means those targets will likely go to Mackenzie or Cook more than to Davis.  I think he has a better year than last year but his role isn't going to be significantly different  other than Sanders is gone to take some if his targets.  So say he ends up with 80-85 targets which is 15 more than Sanders got last year, at his catch rate and YPC he will have about 47-50 catches and 750 yards.  TDs are hard to predict but he likely has some growth there and ends with 9 or 10.  Thats a really good year but its more in line with where he is being drafted than being a top 10-12 WR.  If he starts running more shorter routes and increases his conversion rate to 60% and has a shorter YPC at 13 or so, he could end up with more catches but similar yards.  

[The BILLievers]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

His catch conversion percentage scares me, but its mainly because he is a deep threat which are lower percentage passes.  He may get targets but has only converted 55% of his targets each of his first two years.  So even if he gets Beasley's 112 targets,  he will end with 66 catches which might get him that 1,000 yards if he maintains his 15 yards per catch however I don't see him getting those targets since he is the deep threat (hence the YPC) and Beasley averaged 8 YPC which means those targets will likely go to Mackenzie or Cook more than to Davis.  I think he has a better year than last year but his role isn't going to be significantly different  other than Sanders is gone to take some if his targets.  So say he ends up with 80-85 targets which is 15 more than Sanders got last year, at his catch rate and YPC he will have about 47-50 catches and 750 yards.  TDs are hard to predict but he likely has some growth there and ends with 9 or 10.  Thats a really good year but its more in line with where he is being drafted than being a top 10-12 WR.  If he starts running more shorter routes and increases his conversion rate to 60% and has a shorter YPC at 13 or so, he could end up with more catches but similar yards.  

I don't think it's fair to look at his target conversion rates of the past two seasons and try to project this upcoming season, especially since he was more of a gadget WR the past two seasons and ran a lot of deep crossing routes behind Diggs/Sanders/Beasley when he got his chances. He was also a 5th round pick and was still learning the NFL. 

This season his role is going to be much different. He's the locked in WR2 and the Bills best blocking WR on the team so he'll be out there more than Diggs imo. Sanders and Beasley were old and sucked for most of the season last year so you can't really look their numbers or efficiency. 

There's not a doubt in my head he will easily clear 50 catches and 750 yards, easy. I'm a die hard Bills fan and a die hard Diggs fan, I have the 11th pick in my fantasy draft and i like Davis so much this year i am skipping Diggs at 11th overall because i want Davis and don't think it's wise to start two WRs on the same team. Time will tell but I think he's going to be a TD machine this season and also top 1,000 yards.

 

[Sllim Pickens]

18 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

I don't think it's fair to look at his target conversion rates of the past two seasons and try to project this upcoming season, especially since he was more of a gadget WR the past two seasons and ran a lot of deep crossing routes behind Diggs/Sanders/Beasley when he got his chances. He was also a 5th round pick and was still learning the NFL. 

This season his role is going to be much different. He's the locked in WR2 and the Bills best blocking WR on the team so he'll be out there more than Diggs imo. Sanders and Beasley were old and sucked for most of the season last year so you can't really look their numbers or efficiency. 

There's not a doubt in my head he will easily clear 50 catches and 750 yards, easy. I'm a die hard Bills fan and a die hard Diggs fan, I have the 11th pick in my fantasy draft and i like Davis so much this year i am skipping Diggs at 11th overall because i want Davis and don't think it's wise to start two WRs on the same team. Time will tell but I think he's going to be a TD machine this season and also top 1,000 yards.

 

Diggs was a fifth round pick and has never converted less than 62% of his targets. Davis is a deep threat WR, so his conversion percentage will be lower but again if he runs shorter routes, his YPC goes down.  He isnt a slot WR, he wont be running crossing routes like Beasley did, so other than taking the snaps Sanders had, I don't see his role/route tree being significantly different. 

Sanders had a similar conversion rate (58%) because his role is similar to Davis'.  Beasley had a higher rate (72%) because he runs short/slot routes.  They may have been old but they were productive and good at what they did.  Again, Davis is not going to be running a bunch of short crossing routes when his strength is going deep. 

Yes he is the WR2, but yes there are others who will get targets (McKenzie, Cook, Knox, OJ Howard, Shakir, Crowder) so its not like you can just add Sanders targets to Davis.  I get what you want to happen, but given the facts I have seen, he is being drafted right about where he belongs, maybe a little higher based on TD potential which is volatile.  I think he probably ends the year around 60 catches, 800-950 yards and 9 TDs.  Which is a good year, but not top 10-12.  Last year DK Metcalf had 77 catches for 975 and 12 TDs.  I think that would be an absolute best case for Davis this year and that landed DK at 15th best WR.  If he finishes with what I am expecting, it would be similar to Adam Theilin last year who was the #2 on a high powered offense and finished with 67 catches, 726 yards, and 10 TD which was good enough for 29th best WR.  Davis is currently being drafted as WR29, so again, it seems he is being drafted about where he should but he does have some upside to outplay that slot.  

[The BILLievers]

1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Diggs was a fifth round pick and has never converted less than 62% of his targets. Davis is a deep threat WR, so his conversion percentage will be lower but again if he runs shorter routes, his YPC goes down.  He isnt a slot WR, he wont be running crossing routes like Beasley did, so other than taking the snaps Sanders had, I don't see his role/route tree being significantly different. 

Sanders had a similar conversion rate (58%) because his role is similar to Davis'.  Beasley had a higher rate (72%) because he runs short/slot routes.  They may have been old but they were productive and good at what they did.  Again, Davis is not going to be running a bunch of short crossing routes when his strength is going deep. 

Yes he is the WR2, but yes there are others who will get targets (McKenzie, Cook, Knox, OJ Howard, Shakir, Crowder) so its not like you can just add Sanders targets to Davis.  I get what you want to happen, but given the facts I have seen, he is being drafted right about where he belongs, maybe a little higher based on TD potential which is volatile.  I think he probably ends the year around 60 catches, 800-950 yards and 9 TDs.  Which is a good year, but not top 10-12.  Last year DK Metcalf had 77 catches for 975 and 12 TDs.  I think that would be an absolute best case for Davis this year and that landed DK at 15th best WR.  If he finishes with what I am expecting, it would be similar to Adam Theilin last year who was the #2 on a high powered offense and finished with 67 catches, 726 yards, and 10 TD which was good enough for 29th best WR.  Davis is currently being drafted as WR29, so again, it seems he is being drafted about where he should but he does have some upside to outplay that slot.  

Exactly why I posted in the sleeper thread that I believe he's a sleeper as to where his value is lol. 

I guess we'll find out in a month or two! 

[Sllim Pickens]

3 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

Exactly why I posted in the sleeper thread that I believe he's a sleeper as to where his value is lol. 

I guess we'll find out in a month or two! 

Or 4 months.  He will have big games most likely, thats how deep threats are.  I am not sure he is a week to week guy that will get you the 6/7 catches and 60 yards minimum.  And although I said he has potential to outplay his draft spot, I think he is being drafted where he is based on the projections of increased targets already.  In that same range (25-35) of WRs I like Jeudy, Allen Robinson, Hollywood Brown, Cooper, JuJu, Bateman and Renfrow more as far as potential to outplay their draft spot.    Michael Thomas is in there too and if healthy I easily take him over Davis.  I like Davis more than Moore and Theilin given he is a younger version of Theilin.  So although it is possible, I don't think it is likely he is a top 20 WR let alone a top 10.    

[The BILLievers]

1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Or 4 months.  He will have big games most likely, thats how deep threats are.  I am not sure he is a week to week guy that will get you the 6/7 catches and 60 yards minimum.  And although I said he has potential to outplay his draft spot, I think he is being drafted where he is based on the projections of increased targets already.  In that same range (25-35) of WRs I like Jeudy, Allen Robinson, Hollywood Brown, Cooper, JuJu, Bateman and Renfrow more as far as potential to outplay their draft spot.    Michael Thomas is in there too and if healthy I easily take him over Davis.  I like Davis more than Moore and Theilin given he is a younger version of Theilin.  So although it is possible, I don't think it is likely he is a top 20 WR let alone a top 10.    

Sounds good! Like I said we'll see. 

[Sllim Pickens]

Side note, I think Hunter Renfrow might be the most likely to outplay his draft spot.  He converted 80% of his targets last year and 75% the year before.  Last year he was a focus but this year will have Adams to take the top DBs.  Yes I know there are only so many balls to go around but if he gets close to his 100 targets again, he will be a top 10 WR again like he was last year. It is more likely he is in the 10-20 range but even that is a huge bump from his ADP of WR34.  

[BayRaider]

4 hours ago, The BILLievers said:

He's not technically a sleeper but a sleeper as to where he's going right now. I really think Gabriel Davis will be a top 10-12 WR at the end of the season. He's going to get 90% of the snaps, in a pass heavy offense, where Diggs and Knox get a lot of attention. Not to mention he's a good deep threat that's 6'-3" 227 pounds. I expect a 1000 yard season and 10+ TDs.

In casual leagues Davis is a sleeper in the 7th Round but in any non-casual league, Davis goes in the Early 4th Round. I would like more Davis shares but I can’t justify such an early price tag. Only have one share in 100+ drafts. 

[BayRaider]

8 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Side note, I think Hunter Renfrow might be the most likely to outplay his draft spot.  He converted 80% of his targets last year and 75% the year before.  Last year he was a focus but this year will have Adams to take the top DBs.  Yes I know there are only so many balls to go around but if he gets close to his 100 targets again, he will be a top 10 WR again like he was last year. It is more likely he is in the 10-20 range but even that is a huge bump from his ADP of WR34.  

The problem is Adams and Waller target share. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Sad to see Mike Williams and Courtland Sutton jump to Top-35, not exactly sleepers but at cost they were to me

[BayRaider]

14 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Sad to see Mike Williams and Courtland Sutton jump to Top-35, not exactly sleepers but at cost they were to me

Been smashing Sutton all year. I miss him being a 5th Round pick in June. Picking him in the 3rd hurts, but I still do it often. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Just now, BayRaider said:

Been smashing Sutton all year. I miss him being a 5th Round pick in June. Picking him in the 3rd hurts, but I still do it often. 

Yea I'm picking high round 3 so it sucks. its why I wish we'd do more salary cap drafts

[Sllim Pickens]

18 hours ago, BayRaider said:

The problem is Adams and Waller target share. 

I think Adams and Waller's target share goes down some too though.  They all take a hit IMO.  The chemistry Carr has with Renfrow is legit and it wont go away because of Adams.  Last year Renfrow saw 120 targets, which isnt going to happen again, but he will still get plenty against worse CBs now going forward.  If he gets 90-100 targets, which is reasonable (Carr threw it 646 times last year so it would be less than 1/5th of the targets), he will still be a top 15 WR and is currently has an ADP of WR32.  Adams saw 169 targets last year but that number will likely come down to the 120-140 range.  Waller saw 90 targets last year and that likely comes down to 75-80.  All will be relevant, all will be worse than last year, but all still can be elite fantasy players like when Moss and Welker both saw 150 plus targets in under 600 pass attempts. 

[paul-mac]

Speaking of the Raiders, I’m actually very high on Carr this year. Best WR he’s ever had, a coach that has a long history of getting very efficient seasons out of QBs, and they seem to be meh on Jacobs so it seems like they’ll be the most throw heavy Raider teams of the past few years. 

[BayRaider]

5 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

Speaking of the Raiders, I’m actually very high on Carr this year. Best WR he’s ever had, a coach that has a long history of getting very efficient seasons out of QBs, and they seem to be meh on Jacobs so it seems like they’ll be the most throw heavy Raider teams of the past few years. 

Very hard for a pure passing QB to finish Top 5-6. Stafford threw 41 TD’s and barely finished as QB5. 

I think Carr could finish in the 8-12 range, but if you’re looking for upside, he’s not the pick. 

The only pure passing QB I like this year is Russell Wilson. Would not be surprised if that ends up a Top 3 Offense and Wilson has the best year of his career.