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Brownie Man's First Round Mock Prediction with Explanations! (No Trades)

brownie man

Did You Like My Pick for Your Team?  

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  1. 1. Did You Like My Pick for Your Team?

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    • No - (If no please list who you would've chosen)

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Draft Time 

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This draft is my prediction of how the draft will fall out. A mix of what I'd do along with what the team would do. 

1. Jacksonville - DE Aidan Hutchinson - I think Kayvon is the better pass rusher, but Aidan is more well rounded. Hit the double and keep it moving. 

2. Detroit - DE Kayvon Thibodeaux - I think Travon is a hell of an athlete, but for him to jump Kayvon would be ridiculous. Don't overthink this Detroit get a special pass rusher. 

3. Houston - S Kyle Hamilton - I usually would not go safety this high, but Hamilton is a unique player. They also have a huge hole at the position. I think it's worth the opportunity here. 

4. NY Jets - DE Travon Walker - Jets need a pass rusher BAD. Get some help across from Carl Lawson. 

5. NY Giants - OT Evan Neal OT - Get the most versatile lineman. He can play RT, LT, or guard. Build that oline up. 

6. Carolina - OT Ikem Ekwonu- There's no way they can go QB here. They actually have to trade down. Even if they don't get a great return they need picks to help with that oline. QB is getting alot of help, but they'd be fools to not prioritize Oline first. Get a QB like Carson Strong or Sam Howell later. Take a swing, but not in the first. 

7. NY Giants - CB Sauce Garder - Get CB help with Bradberry leaving. Sauce is a safer pick than Stingley right now. Hit doubles. 

8. Atlanta - WR Garrett Wilson - Their WR room is embarrassing. Get your QB next year and have weapons ready for him. Wilson is WR 1 in this class.

9. Seattle - CB Derek Stingley JR - BPA right here, and after this I feel like the "Special" talent drops. Don't go QB here don't do it. 

10. NY Jets - WR Drake London - He's not my WR 2, but I do like the Skillset he would bring to their WR room. Give Wilson a big body that can be a safe target. 

11. Washington - OT Charles Cross - Bring in some Oline help to protect your investment in Wentz. Cross can play either side, and possibly guard if he needs to wait for a tackle spot to open. 

12. Minnesota - CB Trent McDuffie - Vikings have a huge need at corner. McDuffie can play outside or in the slot. Solid pick for that defense. 

13. Houston - DE Jermaine Johnson II - You got your safety at 3, and now you get a serious pass rusher at 13 to help out that defense. Jermaine would be a great pick here. 

14. Baltimore - DE George Karlaftis - They just missed out on Johnson, but Karlaftis still is a talented player that would fill a pass rushing need across from Oweh. 

15. Philadelphia - DT Devonte Wyatt - Their interior Dline is unsigned after this season. Wyatt would be a home run pick right here to build that dline depth. 

16. NO Saints - QB Malik Willis - Saints traded up for some reason. Idk if it's to trade up for a QB, but in this situation Wills falls to them. Mold him behind Jameis and hopefully you've got your QB of the future. 

17. LA Chargers - DT Jordan Davis - They'd run up to the podium here. There's not much better player to team matchups in the draft. Davis would be a huge help for that run defense. 

18. Philadelphia - WR Treylon Burks - Bring some size and talent to that WR core. Burks will be a great compliment to Devota Smith, and he'll be weapon on sweeps and other exotic plays with Hurts. 

19. NO Saints - WR Chris Olave - Got your QB now get him that deep threat. Willis and Olave would be a nasty tandem for a decade. 

20. Pittsburgh - C Tyler Linderbaum - Another pick where they run up to make the selection. Linderbaum would a great fit on the interior of that oline. 

21. NE Patriots - CB Kaiir Elam - They lost their top corner. BB knows corner is a need, and he loves to target them early. Elam would be a solid pick here. 

22. Green Bay - WR Jameson Williams - They've got to go receiver in the first round, and they can't wait till their next pick. Get Rodgers a deep threat even if you may have to wait a little for him to get on the field. 

23. Arizona - Andrew Booth Jr CB - They need DB help and Booth is versatile. You've got to have corners in that division. 

24. Dallas - G Kenyon Green - Another standard pick. Dallas knows they've got to replace alot of lost Oline, and Green is the first major step in doing so. 

25. Buffalo - RB Kenneth Walker II - Somewhat an out of the box pick, but I love the fit of Walker on that team. They need to stop playing around with Singletary and Moss and just finalize that position. 

26. Tennessee - OT Trevor Penning - D Henry is only getting older. Bring in some nasty Oline help to make his run lanes a little easier to go through. 

27. Tampa Bay - S Lewis Cine - Not many needs on that roster. Bring in a versatile DB to go against these passing offenses. Cine will also come and knock yo a$$ out. 

28. Green Bay - G Zion Johnson - Got the WR help, and they could use some interior help. Bring in Zion to protect that investment in Rodgers. 

29. Kansas City - WR Christian Watson - They've got to get a deep threat. I don't trust Valdez at all. Bring in Watson and he can develop a year behind Valdez till he replaces him. 

30. Kansas City - CB Kyler Gordon - Come back with a corner to go up against these offenses. They would use a number 2 corner to come in an help that defensive backfield. 

31. Cincinnati - DB Dax Hill - They made major moves on the Oline. Now bring in a talented versatile DB that can play safety, slot corner, and some outside if you really need it. 

32. Detroit - LB Devin Lloyd - Another sprint to the podium. My first true linebacker off the board. Kayvon and Lloyd would be two corner stones on that defense. Take a swing at QB later if you want, but you can't pass on Lloyd here. 


Final mock with some changes 


1.) Jacksonville Jaguars - EDGE Aidan Hutchinson

2.) Detroit Lions - EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux

3.) Houston Texans - DL Travon Walker 

4.) New York Jets -  CB Sauce Gardner

5.) New York Giants -  OT Evan Neal

6.) Carolina Panthers - OL Ikem Ekwonu

7.) New York Giants - CB Derek Stingley Jr.

8.) Atlanta Falcons - QB Malik Willis

9.) Seattle Seahawks - EDGE Jermaine Johnson II

10.) New York Jets - WR Garrett Wilson

11.) Washington Commanders - WR Drake London

12.) Minnesota Vikings - C Tyler Lindebaum  

13.) Houston Texans - S Kyle Hamilton

14.) Baltimore Ravens - DT Jordan Davis

15.) Philadephia Eagles - WR Jameson Williams 

16.) New Orleans Saints - OT Charles Cross 

17.) Los Angeles Chargers - CB Trent McDuffie 

18.) Philadelphia Eagles - DT Devonte Wyatt

19.) New Orleans Saints - WR Chris Olave 

20.) Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Trevor Penning

21.) New England Patriots - CB Kaiir Elam 

22.) Green Bay Packers - WR Treylon Burks 

23.) Arizona Cardinals - EDGE George Karlaftis

24.) Dallas Cowboys - OL Kenyon Green 

25.) Buffalo Bills - RB Breece Hall

26.) Tennessee Titans - OG Zion Johnson

27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - S Lewis Cine

28.) Green Bay Packers - DL Logan Hall 

29.) Kansas City Chiefs - WR Christian Watson 

30.) Kansas City Chiefs - CB Andrew Booth 

31.) Cincinnati Bengals - CB Kyler Gordon 

32.) Detroit Lions - LB Devin Lloyd

Edited by brownie man
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Absolutely not for the Falcons taking a WR at 8 in this loaded WR class is just a dumb move for us to do.  You can get a WR with almost identical talent in round 2 of this draft to Wilson.  Heck i would personally take  Pickens, Olave, and Jameson Williams over Wilson and i don't even view them as top 20 guys in this draft.  Wilson and London are probably 5 and 6 on my list of WR's.

The correct move for the Falcons here is to take Johnson at Edge Rusher and fix the position we have been the weakest at for the longest amount of time and a MUCH MUCH more important position and a harder one to fix.   You can fix WR so easy at any given time in FA or draft theirs just to many talented ones available in every draft and FA.    Edge rushers are a different thing they are very hard to come by and keep talented ones that actually work out.   To me WR is just like RB a dime a dozen and you can plug and play solid ones as long as you got a good o-line.

Also our Edge Rushing group looks a heck of alot worse than our WR group right now lol   Atleast we got WR's that have proven something in the league for 500+ yards per season and some over 800 yards.   Don't forget Pitts and Patterson line up at WR as well.  Pitts spent more time at WR and running WR routes last year than TE.

TE: 27% , slot: 43% , wide: 30% were his splits

As far as edge rusher goes we have 1 guy on the team that has gotten more than 2 sacks a season and thats Lorenzo Carter at 5 sacks as his best year.   The rest of the edge rushers on the team don't have 4 SACKS COMBINED BETWEEN THEM FOR THEIR ENTIRE CAREERS.    

Now you add in the fact that the 2nd worst pass rushing team last year had 29 sacks  and the Falcons were dead last with more than double digit sacks less than that with 18.  Proves how horribly bad we are at that position and how severely we need a legit edge rusher in here PRONTO.   Heck if it's up to me im probably double dipping at edge in the 1st 2 rounds.    Hutch, Thibs, Johnson, Walker in round 1 in that order for me at 8.   Then in round 2 im taking Bonitto, Karlaftis, Ojabo, Mafe, Ebiketie, or Enagbare in that order as well.  With my other 2nd round pick i go WR and then with one of my 3rds i go WR.

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6 hours ago, brownie man said:

20. Pittsburgh - C Tyler Linderbaum - Another pick where they run up to make the selection. Linderbaum would a great fit on the interior of that oline. 


I was all in on Linderbaum before free agency, but the Steelers signed two IOL who have position flexibility to play C. 

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16 hours ago, brownie man said:

21. NE Patriots - CB Kaiir Elam

No  You filled a need however the Pats have holes across the board. The pick should be BPA. Elam not rated that high and you just let the best WR go to the next pick. You also didn't take Penning, Johnson and Hill who are better players.  All players I mentioned are critical needs.

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8. Atlanta - WR Garrett Wilson - Their WR room is embarrassing. Get your QB next year and have weapons ready for him. Wilson is WR 1 in this class.

Terrible pick with worse reasoning. "They need a WR, so I'm gonna give them a WR." You know what other rooms in Atlanta are embarrassing? The Pass rush room. Bruce Carter is the only EDGE of substance the same way Auden Tate is the only WR of substance. Why do people not see that and realize that they need EDGE? Oh, because they WANT A WR to go to Atlanta and don't actually research the team or their needs or how they're going BPA. 

The picks that actually make sense in this situation are Jermaine Johnson, Malik Willis or Derek Stingley if you're going BPA. I think the Falcons would go Johnson here as they're one of a handful of teams that do have a top 10 grade on him.

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29. Kansas City - WR Christian Watson - They've got to get a deep threat. I don't trust Valdez at all. Bring in Watson and he can develop a year behind Valdez till he replaces him. 

30. Kansas City - CB Kyler Gordon - Come back with a corner to go up against these offenses. They would use a number 2 corner to come in an help that defensive backfield. 

I don't like either of these. Watson is a reach and Gordon is a poor fit. 

On 4/17/2022 at 5:04 PM, kingseanjohn said:

Not a fan of Watson personally. Give me Dotson at 29 here. I could live with Gordon at 30 but I'd rather go BPA DL or DB. I think Hill would be BPA DB here.

He's right about Dotson. We disagree on DB in the 1st, but Hill is definitely the one if it has to be a DB. Take pass, rush. Take it twice if there is reasonable value. #50 and #62 are good enough for  developmental WR and DB.


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Kenneth Walker is a horrible pick. If were going RB Breece Hall is the better fit, way more versatile in the passing game then Walker and were as pass happy as they come.

List of players available wed want over Kenneth Walker

RB Breece Hall

CB Kyler Gordon

CB Roger McCreary

LB Nakobe Dean

LB Devin Lloyd

LB Leo Chenal

OL Zion Johnson

WR Jahan Dotson

WR Skyy Moore



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5 hours ago, Suffering_Bills said:

Interesting for the Bills.

I dont get the justification of Walker over Breece Hall tbh 

Were a pass first team who just about signed JD McKissic. He changed his mind the last minute. That shows were looking for a more versatile RB. Breece Hall is proven in the pass game and is the top rated RB of the draft.


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