The Last Straw

[Brit Pack]

Preamble
I don’t have a clue. Just trying to look at needs and who might be available at the spot we pick. The draft is so fluid and how a fan views it and a GM/scouts is ultimately oceans apart but based on what little research I do, which is ultimately great fun, here is my take on it all.

THE TEAM
Studs on the Packers roster:
Offence: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins* 
Defence: Kenny Clark, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, De'Vondre Campbell, Eric Stokes, Rasul Douglas, Jaire Alexander*, Adrian Amos*

Good players or starters for the Packers:
Offence: Allen Lazard*, Randall Cobb*, Robert Tonyan*, Marcedes Lewis*, Yosh Nijman*, Jon Runyan, Josh Myers, Royce Newman, Jordan Love
Defence: Dean Lowry*, Jarran Reed*, Krys Barnes, Darnell Savage

* denotes on last year of contract

Where are the major holes:
WR: we don’t have any studs and the starters that we currently have all but Amari are on their last year of their deals, we desperately need talent here
DL: two of the three starters will probably not be with the Packers next year
TE: both starters in last year of deal this year, I’m guessing good chance Bobby gets a new contract

Need to fill out:
Safety: one starter on the last year of his deal, the other not sure if 5^th year option will be picked up, so this could be a problem and depth behind is somewhat required. However, both starters could be easily resigned and I think that is likely and I’m hopeful Savage comes on strong now
OLB – got two great starters need more behind them
OL – we are pretty set here with the draft investment. Issue centres around are we paying Jenkins past this year and we could always have depth
CB – Starters set, Jaire on his last year, but I’m sure he is sticking, still need one player more for solid depth

THE DRAFT
Players almost 100% gone by pick 22:
Neal, Kkwonu, Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, Hamilton, Cross , Walker, Gardner, Stingley, Willis, Wilson, London

Players most likely gone
Davies, Pickett, Williams, Lloyd, McDuffie, Wyatt, Karlaftis, Johnson II, Penning, Olave
                               
Pick 22
Option 1: trade back for a high 2^nd and high 3^rd
Option 2: small trade up for: Karlaftis, Johnson II, Penning, Olave, Williams, one of them should be available in the late teens
Option 3: stay put: Burks, Linderbaum, Zion Johnson, Raimann or whoever else from the ‘most likely gone’ section still remains

Apart from Burks, I really don’t like the options available at 22. Not a fan of either of the Georgia Dlinemen, that is if one of them drops. Much prefer the idea of a trade back or a trade up

Pick 28
Options 1: WR - Watson, Pickens, Dotson
Option 2: Safety - Hill, Cine, Pitre
Option 3: Others defence - Dean, Booth, Elam, Mafe

Here WR is a decent soft spot, before the most likely run at the end of the of the 1^st and beginning of the 2^nd kicks in. Also a nice place to go Safety if we feel that is worth investing in such a high pick, personally don’t see it.

IF we traded out of 22 and have a pick at the top of the second
Option 1: WR - Pierce, Skyy Moore
Option 2: DL - Logan Hall, Travis Jones, DeMarvin Leal
Option 3: Safety - Pitre, Brisker
Option 4: Others - Tyler Smith, Quay Walker, Ojabo, Ebiketie

By this stage there will be players who have ‘dropped’ and their will be more options for sure. I do like this as a place to take a DL guy assuming we have already addressed WR

At picks 53 and 59
Option 1: Edge - Bonitto, Cameron Thomas, Sam Williams, Enagbare, Paschal
Option 2: DL - Winfrey, Mathis
Option 3: CB - Woolen, Emerson Jr
Option 4: ILB - Muma, Chanal, Tindall, Harris
Option 5: WR - Tolbert, Shakir, Robinson, Austin III
Option 6: Others - McBride, Parham

I really like some of the edge options at this stage. Like the WR options less so here

Breaking it down what I would like to see happen:
Pick 22: struggle to find someone, therefore trade back or Burks
Pick 28: WR soft spot, take one
Top of the 2nd: DL soft spot
Pick 53 and 59: Go edge here and then take another WR or TE

The unpopular take
If the players are available, our first two picks will be WRs!!! Where we pick as it stands in the rest of the draft doesn’t allow us to access the players that we typically like for WR and we really desperately need impact there. Pick 22 lends itself to one of the ‘Big 5’ and pick 28 lends itself to the Second Tier of Watson, Pickens and Dotson. I don’t see any of the Second Tier getting past the Chiefs and the Lions at the end of the 1^st and at the beginning of the 2^nd we have Texans, Jets, Bears who are all WR needy teams




 

[AlexGreen#20]

1. Middle of April

2. Packers fans talking themselves into the idea that the Packers are going to blow a ton of draft capital at WR. 

Name a more iconic Duo. 

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

1. Middle of April

2. Packers fans talking themselves into the idea that the Packers are going to blow a ton of draft capital at WR. 

Name a more iconic Duo. 

Challenge Accepted.

Jay and Silent Bob.

[Les Punting]

3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

1. Middle of April

2. Packers fans talking themselves into the idea that the Packers are going to blow a ton of draft capital at WR. 

Name a more iconic Duo. 

Says the guy who traded for Metcalf and drafted Pickens in his mock. 

[AlexGreen#20]

16 minutes ago, Les Punting said:

Says the guy who traded for Metcalf and drafted Pickens in his mock. 

Before we had Watkins. 

[smetana34]

As exciting as the idea of adding two of the high end receivers is, it's just not going to happen. Burks and Pickens would both be exciting. But the draft is deep, take one early, and another in the middle if so inclined. I don't think the room is nearly as dire as some. With Watkins in tow, there isn't a direct path to snaps for any rookie to begin the year. Watkins and Cobb will both miss games eventually, so that will help a rookie get his feet wet before having any expectations. Drafting two high is a massive overkill. I still maintain they won't take one in the 1st unless the board is shot and they can't find a trade partner. 

[Brit Pack]

Lost 1500 yards production from Adams
Another 500 yards production from MVS

Replaced with Watkins - good for 500 - 700 yards
Remaining starters are Lazard, free agent in 2023, Cobb, free agent in 2023 and Watkins, free agent in 2023.
Still need to get about 1500 yards of production from somewhere? Maybe Lazard does a bit more and so does Cobb assuming both are healthy.

To say this position group is bare would be an understatement. It is bare in the immediate and in the future.

Unfortunately, the kind of WRs we are after are predominantly available at the early part of the draft rather than later on where we have more of the slot type guys.

Edited April 18, 2022 by Brit Pack

[vegas492]

39 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

Lost 1500 yards production from Adams
Another 500 yards production from MVS

Replaced with Watkins - good for 500 - 700 yards
Remaining starters are Lazard, free agent in 2023, Cobb, free agent in 2023 and Watkins, free agent in 2023.
Still need to get about 1500 yards of production from somewhere? Maybe Lazard does a bit more and so does Cobb assuming both are healthy.

To say this position group is bare would be an understatement. It is bare in the immediate and in the future.

Unfortunately, the kind of WRs we are after are predominantly available at the early part of the draft rather than later on where we have more of the slot type guys.

Not disagreeing with the overall opinion of your post.

Am disagreeing concerning WR's and this draft.  I think there are some nice size/speed guys to be had in the mid rounds, too.

And that Austin kid from ND has the size and RAS that has me drooling over him.  He's a mid round kid with a lot of upside.

They are there.  Even Pierce if he is a top of round 3 kid.

[smetana34]

Is there something stopping us from resigning Lazard, Watkins, or Cobb? Or dabbling in free agency 2023, or drafting guys in 2023? 

[squire12]

1 hour ago, smetana34 said:

Is there something stopping us from resigning Lazard, Watkins, or Cobb? Or dabbling in free agency 2023, or drafting guys in 2023? 

the sky falling?

[Brit Pack]

1 hour ago, smetana34 said:

Is there something stopping us from resigning Lazard, Watkins, or Cobb? Or dabbling in free agency 2023, or drafting guys in 2023? 

Nothing stoping us. Firstly do you think they are good enough? I like Lazard and if he is healthy could see a very good season out of him. The other two less sold on. Especially if Watkins has a good year he'll want paying top dollar. And then assuming AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Johnson, Deebo and McLaurin all get new deals at their respective clubs, the FA market next year for WR looks very dire. 

There is also the fact though we'll have the following players contracts expiring: Elton Jenkins, Adrian Amos, Robert Tonyan, Merc Lewis, Jarran Reed, Dean Lowry, Mason Crosby and Yosh Nijam, with also Rashan Gary and Savageon their 5th year options so we might want to do their deals next offseason. Assuming we are resigning some of those guys above, how much do we want or have left to invest in a 33 year old Randall Cobb or Lazard and Watkins?

We have the luxury not to have much need in many other areas of our roster this year and we are in a draft which has some really good talent in the WR department, especially early. I don't see why the hesitancy to address the weakest part of our roster by far early and often in the draft. 

[Brit Pack]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

Not disagreeing with the overall opinion of your post.

Am disagreeing concerning WR's and this draft.  I think there are some nice size/speed guys to be had in the mid rounds, too.

And that Austin kid from ND has the size and RAS that has me drooling over him.  He's a mid round kid with a lot of upside.

They are there.  Even Pierce if he is a top of round 3 kid.

I like Austin but apart from him, that is where I struggle to find better talent later on which fits our size and athelitc profile. I think Pierce will go towards the top of the 2nd round. That for me leaves these players:

Size and atheltic:
Tolbert
Shakir
Tyquan Thornton

Then this lot that don't quite fit:

Size but not atheletic enough:
Ross
Bell (who I like a lot)
Jaivon Heiligh
Romeo Doubs

Atheltic enough but not size:
Austin III
Wan Dale Robinson
Kyle Philips (I like a lot)
Bo Melton

Not that I'm married to it but I just think there is a nice soft spot at the end of the 1st round to grab two WRs that could set us up for years to come.

[vegas492]

7 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

I like Austin but apart from him, that is where I struggle to find better talent later on which fits our size and athelitc profile. I think Pierce will go towards the top of the 2nd round. That for me leaves these players:

Size and atheltic:
Tolbert
Shakir
Tyquan Thornton

Then this lot that don't quite fit:

Size but not atheletic enough:
Ross
Bell (who I like a lot)
Jaivon Heiligh
Romeo Doubs

Atheltic enough but not size:
Austin III
Wan Dale Robinson
Kyle Philips (I like a lot)
Bo Melton

Not that I'm married to it but I just think there is a nice soft spot at the end of the 1st round to grab two WRs that could set us up for years to come.

It's kind of beyond analyzing now.  Just let it happen.  

If it is me, I'm going into this draft saying get Olave and get Pickens.  They fit.  And I'm working the board to get them while still fortifying the roster.

But I'd be working very hard to see how to get those two guys.

[Brit Pack]

6 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

It's kind of beyond analyzing now.  Just let it happen.  

If it is me, I'm going into this draft saying get Olave and get Pickens.  They fit.  And I'm working the board to get them while still fortifying the roster.

But I'd be working very hard to see how to get those two guys.

I'm with you on this

[smetana34]

19 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

Nothing stoping us. Firstly do you think they are good enough? I like Lazard and if he is healthy could see a very good season out of him. The other two less sold on. Especially if Watkins has a good year he'll want paying top dollar. And then assuming AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Johnson, Deebo and McLaurin all get new deals at their respective clubs, the FA market next year for WR looks very dire. 

There is also the fact though we'll have the following players contracts expiring: Elton Jenkins, Adrian Amos, Robert Tonyan, Merc Lewis, Jarran Reed, Dean Lowry, Mason Crosby and Yosh Nijam, with also Rashan Gary and Savageon their 5th year options so we might want to do their deals next offseason. Assuming we are resigning some of those guys above, how much do we want or have left to invest in a 33 year old Randall Cobb or Lazard and Watkins?

We have the luxury not to have much need in many other areas of our roster this year and we are in a draft which has some really good talent in the WR department, especially early. I don't see why the hesitancy to address the weakest part of our roster by far early and often in the draft. 

Because receiver might be the least important position of the starting 22. Rodgers makes what he does to get the job done with a cast of #2s and #3s. Brady did it for years, Brees did it for years, Wilson, Ben, etc. The only high profile QB that I can think of that was continuously surrounded by early round picks or had money thrown into the position was Peyton Manning, and the trade off there was routinely having crap defenses. 

 

Lazard is a fine #2 option. Watkins when healthy (the biggest question) is a fine #2. Cobb at this point is fine as your #3. Then there's our 3rd rounder from next year who you can't write off yet. There's literally no direct path to playing time for any rookie, let alone two. 

Say we go the way OP is talking and select Burks and Pickens. What's the depth chart looking like; Burks, Lazard, Pickens, Watkins, Cobb, Rodgers? What it looks like is we're investing a top pick to keep Cobb off the field, and to keep Watkins off the field for 75% of the game. Is that really worth it when right now Garvin is our 3rd pass rusher or Vernon Scott is our 3rd safety, two positions that played significant snaps for us last year? We have two All Pro linemen coming off ACL tears and the entire right side of the line up for grabs even if they were healthy. I don't have to tell you that a good offensive line is key in giving receivers time to get open. It's been stated for years now that Clark needs a quality running mate. Lowery and Reed are fine as #3 and #4, but a #2 would take this defense to the next level. 

 

I don't think anybody wants to completely ignore the receiver position, and I can buy into the thought about the room in 2023. But right now I feel better about our receiver room than I do about our offensive line, our edge rotation, and safety rotation. Add a receiver, and a player to those to three positions by the end of Day 2, and I'm a happy guy. Just don't feel receiver needs two of our Top 60 picks allocated to it