aceinthehouse Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 So I ran the numbers going back 42 years for the #11 pick selection in the 1st Round. http://www.mynfldraft.com/2021-nfl-draft/2021-results/round1/ I'm a HUGE believer in statistical anomalies, as some of you may know. I do not believe in coincidences. Having said that, I was very curious how the positional breakdown goes for each position a team can draft. What I found, was very interesting. Below, you will see the position, then how many drafted of that position, then finally the % drafted in the 42 years going back to 1980. Statistically, There's a 71% chance, that we draft a DB, an Offensive Lineman, or a Defensive Lineman. (If we stay at the #11 pick) The interesting part of that is....We don't need 2 of those 3 positions with a high % of probability. Only DB would be a pick that would make sense @#11 with the current roster. That being Safety or Corner. So if your a betting man...put your money on Stingley, Hamilton or some other D-back to be picked @#11. Unless our Front office has something else in mind. DB-11--26% OL-10--24% DL-9--21% LB-5--12% QB-4-10% WR-2--5% RB-1--2% #11 pick overall 2021) QB-Justin Fields 2020) OT-Mekhi Becton 2019) OT-Jonah Williams 2018) DB-Minkah Fitzpatrick 2017) CB-Marshon Lattimore 2016) CB-Vernon Hargreaves 2015) CB-Trade Waynes 2014) OT-Taylor Lewan Pos. School Drafted By 2013 DJ Fluker OT Alabama San Diego 2012 Dontari Poe DT Memphis Kansas City 2011 JJ Watt DE Wisconsin Houston 2010 Anthony Davis OT Rutgers San Francisco 2009 Aaron Maybin DE/OLB Penn State Buffalo 2008 Leodis McKelvin CB Troy Buffalo 2007 Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss San Francisco 2006 Jay Cutler QB Vanderbilt Denver 2005 Demarcus Ware DE Troy State Dallas 2004 Ben Roethlisberger QB Miami, O. Pittsburgh 2003 Marcus Trufant CB Washington State Seattle 2002 Dwight Freeney DE Syracuse Indianapolis 2001 Dan Morgan MLB Miami Carolina 2000 Ron Dayne RB Wisconsin N.Y. Giants 1999 Daunte Culpepper QB Central Florida Minnesota 1998 Tra Thomas T Florida State Philadelphia 1997 Michael Booker CB Nebraska Atlanta 1996 Alex Molden CB Oregon New Orleans 1995 Derrick Alexander DE Florida State Minnesota 1994 John Thierry OLB Alcorn State Chicago 1993 Dan Williams DT Toledo Denver 1992 Leon Searcy T Miami Pittsburgh 1991 Pat Harlow T Southern California New England 1990 Anthony Smith DE Arizona L.A. Raiders 1989 Donnell Woolford CB Clemson Chicago 1988 Michael Irvin WR Miami Dallas 1987 Shawn Knight NT Brigham Young New Orleans 1986 Joe Kelly MLB Washington Cincinnati 1985 Richard Johnson CB Wisconsin Houston 1984 Wilber Marshall OLB Florida Chicago 1983 Tim Lewis DB Pittsburgh Green Bay 1982 Anthony Hancock WR Tennessee Kansas City 1981 Keith Van Horne OT USC Chicago 1980 Brad Budde OG USC Kansas City 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 Wonder if there’s any possibility of them taking an OT there. Part of me wonders if Charles Cross will make it to our pick, and whether we’d take him if he did. In terms of balancing talent and positional value, he might honestly be BPA there. I like the player, but I would be looking to use him as a trade-back chip. Teams like HOU, BAL, NO, and LAC would all be in the market for a guy like him, I’d imagine. I definitely would not take Trevor Penning there. I keep seeing him creeping up toward the top 10, but I don’t see it. Guy got a lot of helium from bullying dudes at the Senior Bowl, but he’s still awfully raw in pass protection. I would absolutely auction him off to the highest bidder if other teams see him as the last top-tier OT though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, e16bball said: I definitely would not take Trevor Penning there. Same. No thanks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 (edited) On 4/19/2022 at 3:57 PM, e16bball said: Wonder if there’s any possibility of them taking an OT there. Part of me wonders if Charles Cross will make it to our pick, and whether we’d take him if he did. In terms of balancing talent and positional value, he might honestly be BPA there. I like the player, but I would be looking to use him as a trade-back chip. Teams like HOU, BAL, NO, and LAC would all be in the market for a guy like him, I’d imagine. I definitely would not take Trevor Penning there. I keep seeing him creeping up toward the top 10, but I don’t see it. Guy got a lot of helium from bullying dudes at the Senior Bowl, but he’s still awfully raw in pass protection. I would absolutely auction him off to the highest bidder if other teams see him as the last top-tier OT though. Yeah, I’m wondering the same. If Cross is there I think we could trade down with one of the teams you mentioned. We could possibly get Olave, Drake London, Jameson Williams, Trey Burks, Jahan Dotson, Devin Lloyd, Nakobe Dean or Trent McDuffie in the late teens. Edited April 25, 2022 by turtle28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aceinthehouse Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 If we're trading Payne, that puts DT Jordan Davis in play. "71%" I think D-back has been in play from the very beginning. This could be Hamilton, Stingley, McDuffie as the guys who could go at 11. O-Line is the only position I can't see at 11. I really hope we go skilled position player at 11. But on a trade down? I think O-line is possible. What makes me nervous is there will be O-lineman like Cross, Linderbaum, Raimann, Green, Zion Johnson & Penning who could be taken earlier than expected. All possible 1st Rd prospects. I hope we have enough brains, not to take one @11 & would trade down before taking any of these guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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