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Pick 31: Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan


THE DUKE

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My gut reaction was a little not happy, but not pissed or anything. After a nights sleep and likely a hearty draught of the Kool-Aid, i'm seeing the logic now. 

  • Hill was very likely BPA.  I didn't see him as a prime target because of fit, but i'm coming around the more I look in.
  • Career snap splits: Deep FS 311, Box S 309, Slot CB 906, Boundary CB 35.  He really did play all over and could replace either one of Bates or Bell after this year and still manage to get 400-500 or maybe more snaps this year.
  • While Kyler Gordon may have been a better fit to need, I do think Dax Hill is a better player than Gordon.  Gordon probably had a clearer path to more snaps, but if Hill is the better player.....
  • Was too early for Logan Hall or Travis Jones, and may not have had an offer to trade back.  Either one of those picks is only likely getting 400-500 snaps as well.
  • 99th percentile production score from Joe Goodberry's metrics
  • Still only 21 years old
  • Lou Anarumo has talked about wanting to have interchangeable safeties.  If we resign Bates, then the two of them could absolutely be interchangeable depending on the defensive call.
  • Mike Renner from PFF thinks Hill may get a chance to compete for the boundary CB position. I've been told by more than one person is that Hill was capable of playing boundary CB, but that Michigan wanted to use him like Tyrann Mathiu
  • End of the day, the secondary just got better
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3 minutes ago, Beck Bristow said:

Not what I was hoping for, but a good player and good value. And definitely a path to being a big contributor by year two.

I think he could be every bit as impactful as a 3-Tech like Hall or Jones if they went that route.  No guarantees Kyler Gordon beats out Eli Apple, in which case, he's likely only getting 200-300 reps barring injury.

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9 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

I think he could be every bit as impactful as a 3-Tech like Hall or Jones if they went that route.  No guarantees Kyler Gordon beats out Eli Apple, in which case, he's likely only getting 200-300 reps barring injury.

The one thing I like, they went with BPA instead of taking the 5th ranked CB or something like that. The DT class is brutal, but that doesn't mean you reach for one if the value wasn't there

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10 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

I'd rather have taken Booth or Gordon there but Hill is ok. It seems to mean they aren't going to extend Bates. I guess they would rather pay Wilson or Higgins with the Bates money in 2023. 

I was out on Booth. Injuries concern me for him. I would have been OK with Gordon though 

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21 hours ago, Carson4MVP said:

I will say, the Bengals must have been pumped he was there. Seemed like we were only on the clock for 15-20 seconds before the pick was in. Wouldn’t seem like they even considered trading down. 

Agreed. I think they were ecstatic to see him there. Extremely versatile and athletic. Something we badly needed. 

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