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Green Bay's Valuations of Draft Picks and Christian Watson


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1 hour ago, Old Guy said:

They leaked it to the guy on the NFL network, Daniel Jeremiah, who had him going to the Packers at pick 28 in his final mock draft. I think he had us taking Wyatt at pick 22 as well. 

I had seen that too and was thinking no way lol

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2 hours ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

But then why didn't they just take Wyatt and Watson in the first round and wait for Walker in the second round?

If you have a crystal ball and can see what other teams are thinking/doing ... then all is ok.  That isn't the case .. period.  

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2 hours ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

But then why didn't they just take Wyatt and Watson in the first round and wait for Walker in the second round?

reports were that JAX wanted Walker at their pick in the second.  assuming Walker would still be on the board at 53 is an issues

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7 minutes ago, squire12 said:

reports were that JAX wanted Walker at their pick in the second.  assuming Walker would still be on the board at 53 is an issues

I've seen a few people around now, not on FF, but YouTube and TV and Twitter and stuff and they're basically saying I'm fine with getting those three players we got with the draft capital we used, I just don't like the order we took them and I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around it.

I love the scouting stuff but I wonder if it's just gotten so huge now that once the general consensus comes together, anything that doesn't fall on line enough with it is just pure foolishness from the NFL teams and not that maybe the outside had it wrong. And then this is endlessly justified by looking at mistakes every team has made without ever trying to see the mistakes in that overall consensus every year.

I think we need to realize more and more that this is fun as hell but it's not a science certainly and that applies to both sides. But the guys who get paid millions to do this, ya know, probably aren't bumbling idiots who just forgot to read the mock drafts the week before to see where guys were going to go before picking. 

 

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2 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I certainly noticed (buried in a gazillion other pre-draft tidbits) that Quay Walker was a riser in the last few days before the draft. I'm guessing someone in a scouting department let something slip about him being valued higher than mid-2nd.

Walker may have been flying under the radar with Packer fans, but bettors were not surprised by his high selection. Two weeks before the draft you could have gotten Walker at +1400 to be the first LB selected, on the day before the draft he was down to +170. Follow the money, people knew he was going to go about where he went.  

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2 hours ago, squire12 said:

How are the tiers wrong?

Have you seen draft boards for this or other years?

15 tier 1

20 tier 2

15 tier 3

20 tier 4

Why not try to get one player from tier 2 vs 2 from tier 4?

because when you look at the hit rate of draft picks, it's still abysmally low.  Teams are frequently slotting tier 6 players in tier 1 and so on.

 

There are still 5-10 tier 1 players available in the late 2nd early 3rd every year.  Because everyone's tiers are wrong and it's a flawed process.  So usually having more picks reflects that, and the good draft value charts reflect that too!

 

While I think it's a good scouting exercise to tier up players to compare against each other, it's not a good practice to overpay in draft value to move up to get the "last guy in a tier" or anything similar.

 

It's not the last guy.  Accept that you've made errors in an inexact process, and take your next 2 best players and hope they hit their upside.

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14 minutes ago, Norm said:

I've seen a few people around now, not on FF, but YouTube and TV and Twitter and stuff and they're basically saying I'm fine with getting those three players we got with the draft capital we used, I just don't like the order we took them and I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around it.

I love the scouting stuff but I wonder if it's just gotten so huge now that once the general consensus comes together, anything that doesn't fall on line enough with it is just pure foolishness from the NFL teams and not that maybe the outside had it wrong. And then this is endlessly justified by looking at mistakes every team has made without ever trying to see the mistakes in that overall consensus every year.

I think we need to realize more and more that this is fun as hell but it's not a science certainly and that applies to both sides. But the guys who get paid millions to do this, ya know, probably aren't bumbling idiots who just forgot to read the mock drafts the week before to see where guys were going to go before picking. 

 

It's definitely an info/consensus issue. 99.9999% of everyone who "follows" the draft bases 99.99% of their opinion based on other people's opinions and not direct evidence. So they then feel "attacked" when reality doesn't play out to their flawed expectation. The result is them thinking they know more than any other draft follower, or worse, actual NFL teams.

 

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22 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

It's definitely an info/consensus issue. 99.9999% of everyone who "follows" the draft bases 99.99% of their opinion based on other people's opinions and not direct evidence. So they then feel "attacked" when reality doesn't play out to their flawed expectation. The result is them thinking they know more than any other draft follower, or worse, actual NFL teams.

 

It's hard to argue with 39 wins in 3 years.  

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26 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

It's definitely an info/consensus issue. 99.9999% of everyone who "follows" the draft bases 99.99% of their opinion based on other people's opinions and not direct evidence. So they then feel "attacked" when reality doesn't play out to their flawed expectation. The result is them thinking they know more than any other draft follower, or worse, actual NFL teams.

 

I do think that there's something to the "general consensus" being an actual general consensus.  Maybe 25/32 teams evaluate that player similarly

But "it just takes 1" hold true here, and can actually be predictive?  Is there anything to the idea that when NFL teams buck the consensus trend they actually outperform that consensus trend or how good that player "is supposed to be"

 

you can see the Rams viewed Strange as a 3rd round prospect, and so did the NFL consensus, but NE drafted him in round 1.  Rams coach and FO lit into him for the pick.

 

So at least in this case, the consensus was actually the NFL team consensus.

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42 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

It's definitely an info/consensus issue. 99.9999% of everyone who "follows" the draft bases 99.99% of their opinion based on other people's opinions and not direct evidence. So they then feel "attacked" when reality doesn't play out to their flawed expectation. The result is them thinking they know more than any other draft follower, or worse, actual NFL teams.

 

Find someone, or more than one person, whose opinion you respect, and listen to what they say. They may be wrong (in fact they WILL be wrong, many times), but you respect what they say enough to pay attention to their views.

That might even give you a better take than those that trust their own eyes when evaluating, it depends on how good the evaluator is, compared to the one(s) whose opinion you follow. If you respect (for example) Daniel Jeremiah's and Bootleg Football's opinions (which I do), you can afford to dismiss draftniks you have little respect for (like say, ESPN's Kiper, or NFL Network's Eisen - who admittedly is more a program host than a draft guy).

Edited by OneTwoSixFive
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I think there's a message here for my wife with her annual yard sales. When no one in the crowd will buy an item for ten bucks, she wants to put a dollar on it. I tell her that the item is clearly not overpriced--the person who wants it will take it happily for ten bucks, but they haven't shown up yet, and the person who doesn't want it for ten bucks doesn't want it for a dollar either.

The value of any thing is kind of funny that way.

Gute showed up at the Vikings flea market table.

How much is that 29?

Not for sale.

I'll give you a 53 and a 59.

Maybe tomorrow. I might have a 34 for you tomorrow.

A 53 and a 59 is a little pricey for a 34.

Up to you.

Edited by Uffdaswede
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26 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

It's definitely an info/consensus issue. 99.9999% of everyone who "follows" the draft bases 99.99% of their opinion based on other people's opinions and not direct evidence. So they then feel "attacked" when reality doesn't play out to their flawed expectation. The result is them thinking they know more than any other draft follower, or worse, actual NFL teams.

 

That's how I feel as well. And I don't even want to attack those dudes because I get there's some genuine passion for it and everything but it really seems to hurt their damn egos at times when it doesn't go their way and they're just convinced they can't be wrong and it's an entire NFL scouting staff that is.

And there's just enough anecdotal evidence in their own minds from the guys they've been right about over the years that they just have to be right again.

But now I'm breaking it down too much but this is what my mind does.

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I love what we did in the draft.

It is not what I would have done, and that is a good thing.

We tried trading up for a WR, and the cost wasn't worth it.

So we fortified the defense, and then some.

We gave up too much for our move up in the second.  But, we got a WR with incredible upside and obviously we liked the kid as a person.  I don't like how much we gave up, but we must have really, really liked Watson, so I'm thrilled.

Then we solidified that OL and we added an EDGE while taking a few more fliers on WR, where value was appropriate.

This draft got easier once we locked down that first WR.  I really could care less what we gave up for him, now.

If I were drafting, I would have overdrafted for need (WR) and ultimately, the roster would not have been as good as it is now.

Gute built a roster.  Now the coaches have to get to work.

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