taylor made Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, e16bball said: I always put drafting a QB in a different category than any other position. The payoff is just so much different than any other position, which changes the whole calculus. You know (everyone does) my position on QBs taken after the first 15 picks or so, it’s almost always a waste of time. But the reward on the rare occasion that you do actually get it right is so massive that at a certain point, it does often make sense to take a swing. No slot receiver or nickel CB — even if you hit on them, which is no great bet that late in the game — will ever come close to approaching the value you get from hitting on a late round QB. Yeah, it is the 5th round so it is arguing over small value and dart-throws. But I guess it is a different type of debate so it is fun! I really haven't done enough research on hit percentages on late round receivers or other positions. I agree with you that a QB would payoff better than WR in theory. IF you hit on it. But the hit factor on QB would still be so much lower than the hit factor on a WR. So why waste that pick? You can land better than just a slot WR late in the draft. Let's look at the past couple years 5th round WRs of note: 2021: Doesn't look like anyone 2020: Tyler Johnson, Darnell Mooney, KJ Osbourne 2019: Hunter Renfrow, Darius Slayton 2018: Marquez Valding-Scantling 2017: Nobody of note 2016: Tajae Sharpe, *cough* Tyreek Hill *cough*, Rashard Higgins 2015: Stefon Diggs 2014: No one 2013: Kenny Stills 2012: No one 2011: Denarius Moore, Jeremy Kerley 2010: Riley Cooper 2009: Johnny Knox 2008: No one 2007: No one 2006: No one 2005: No one 2004: DJ Hackett 2003: Bobby Wade, Justin Gage, Doug Gabriel So, I don't know. Maybe there's just been a recent run of decent late round WRs the past couple of years. That 2005-2008 stretch is pretty bad for WRs as you can see. But when you compare it to QBs drafted in the fifth round, I didn't see any QBs with value drafted. Just a lot of Nathan Petermans and Brett Hundleys. I'll never forget those 3 games Josh Johnson started though. Edited May 13, 2022 by taylor made 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noptov52 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, taylor made said: But when you compare it to QBs drafted in the fifth round, I didn't see any QBs with value drafted. There was a pretty okay one drafted in the sixth though... 🤷♂️ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylor made Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, noptov52 said: There was a pretty okay one drafted in the sixth though... 🤷♂️ Yup, no doubt about it. Gardner Minshew was also drafted in the sixth round. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 On Kevin Sheehan’s podcast, I saw someone on Twitter say that either Sheehan or Cooley compared Howell to Rex Grossman or they said maybe it was Logan Paulsen who did it. I like the Rex comp for Howell, I hadn’t thought about that before. I do think that Howell takes care of the ball better than Rex, or at least Howell took care of the ball well in college. If Howell can throw for around 4000 yds but have 15 or less TDs he may be a future starter for us. 🤷 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, taylor made said: Yeah, it is the 5th round so it is arguing over small value and dart-throws. But I guess it is a different type of debate so it is fun! I really haven't done enough research on hit percentages on late round receivers or other positions. I agree with you that a QB would payoff better than WR in theory. IF you hit on it. But the hit factor on QB would still be so much lower than the hit factor on a WR. So why waste that pick? You can land better than just a slot WR late in the draft. Let's look at the past couple years 5th round WRs of note: 2021: Doesn't look like anyone 2020: Tyler Johnson, Darnell Mooney, KJ Osbourne 2019: Hunter Renfrow, Darius Slayton 2018: Marquez Valding-Scantling 2017: Nobody of note 2016: Tajae Sharpe, *cough* Tyreek Hill *cough*, Rashard Higgins 2015: Stefon Diggs 2014: No one 2013: Kenny Stills 2012: No one 2011: Denarius Moore, Jeremy Kerley 2010: Riley Cooper 2009: Johnny Knox 2008: No one 2007: No one 2006: No one 2005: No one 2004: DJ Hackett 2003: Bobby Wade, Justin Gage, Doug Gabriel So, I don't know. Maybe there's just been a recent run of decent late round WRs the past couple of years. That 2005-2008 stretch is pretty bad for WRs as you can see. But when you compare it to QBs drafted in the fifth round, I didn't see any QBs with value drafted. Just a lot of Nathan Petermans and Brett Hundleys. I'll never forget those 3 games Josh Johnson started though. The reason is because I think most would agree that there’s a strong chance that Sam Howell at least develops into a Rex Grossman/Chase Daniel/Colt McCoy/Taylor Heinicke type QB at the least where he’ll be a good back up for us. Having a good back up QB is more important than having a good #5 type WR we may have drafted in the 5th round. Also, we already have good WR depth. I don’t think we needed more after drafting Dotson to be our #3 this year and future #2. 1. Terry 2. Samuel 3. Dotson 4. Sims 5. Dyami Brown 6. Kelvin Harmon 7. Dax Milne 8. AGG Given our Wr depth, why would you take another late round WR this year? That doesn’t make much sense to me. Sam Howell actually has a chance to be a steal in this draft. He has a good to great arm, is a great leader and is strong & sneaky athletic runner. When he develops into our NFL offense and gets comfortable going through progressions more, I think he’s going to at worst be a good back up for us. Edited May 13, 2022 by turtle28 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylor made Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 19 hours ago, turtle28 said: The reason is because I think most would agree that there’s a strong chance that Sam Howell at least develops into a Rex Grossman/Chase Daniel/Colt McCoy/Taylor Heinicke type QB at the least where he’ll be a good back up for us. Having a good back up QB is more important than having a good #5 type WR we may have drafted in the 5th round. Also, we already have good WR depth. I don’t think we needed more after drafting Dotson to be our #3 this year and future #2. 1. Terry 2. Samuel 3. Dotson 4. Sims 5. Dyami Brown 6. Kelvin Harmon 7. Dax Milne 8. AGG Given our Wr depth, why would you take another late round WR this year? That doesn’t make much sense to me. Sam Howell actually has a chance to be a steal in this draft. He has a good to great arm, is a great leader and is strong & sneaky athletic runner. When he develops into our NFL offense and gets comfortable going through progressions more, I think he’s going to at worst be a good back up for us. I think WRs #1-5 are pretty much locks to make the roster but that #6 spot is wide open and could have been upgraded in the draft. AGG is a nobody and I'm not sure what your obsession with Kelvin Harmon is. He was relevant 3 years ago in 2019. Furthermore, Curtis Samuel could easily be a cap casualty next year. WR is a risky position to draft and if they (Dotson and D. Brown) don't pan out, I would have preferred if they got more insurance than somebody like Dax Milne. Like you already said, we have a good backup already: Taylor Heinicke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 20 hours ago, taylor made said: I think WRs #1-5 are pretty much locks to make the roster but that #6 spot is wide open and could have been upgraded in the draft. AGG is a nobody and I'm not sure what your obsession with Kelvin Harmon is. He was relevant 3 years ago in 2019. Furthermore, Curtis Samuel could easily be a cap casualty next year. WR is a risky position to draft and if they (Dotson and D. Brown) don't pan out, I would have preferred if they got more insurance than somebody like Dax Milne. Like you already said, we have a good backup already: Taylor Heinicke. Well if AGG or Harmon don’t do enough to be a #6 WR, which I seriously doubt, Dax Milne sure flashed enough last year to be a #6 WR & we always seem to find one UDFA who’s worthy of making it as a #6 WR type or a practice squad player. The pick of Howell is a long term play. Long term he could be a great back up or even our starter. It was such a better pick then taking a #6 WR or another position. It could end up being a great pick for us and I think it will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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