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2018 Draftable QB Discussion


candyman93

Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold?  

72 members have voted

  1. 1. Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold?

    • Josh Rosen
      25
    • Sam Darnold
      47


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14 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

No one said that. Seems some Darnold fans are extremely sensitive. If you mention his fumbles that is putting him down? I'd hate to critique some of you guys if I were your supervisor. I would hope that these QBs take constructive criticism a lot better than their fans do.

Many people on this board are completely trashing Baker as far as being a legitimate prospect and those same guys seem to be extremely offended when there is mention that their favorite isn't a flawless prospect.

Who are the ones trashing Mayfield? Are there names? Turnabouts 

This forum is an interesting dynamic into human nature. ?

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2 hours ago, Bonanza23 said:

Who are the ones trashing Mayfield? Are there names? Turnabouts 

This forum is an interesting dynamic into human nature. ?

Akron, Aztec, Bruce, MWIII, Mind, Master, pretty much anyone who has a user name starting with A or M besides mistakey.

 

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33 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Akron, Aztec, Bruce, MWIII, Mind, Master, pretty much anyone who has a user name starting with A or M besides mistakey.

 

I have never bashed Baker Mayfield, quite the opposite actually. I literally spent 25 mins making a whole list of previous 1st round QBs for the past 10 years and where his insanely high completion percentage and QBR ranks compared to them. Its #1 by the way with only Russell Wilson coming in a close 2nd if I remember correctly. Deshone Kizer had the worst combination of Comp% and QBR in college of any top rated QB in the past decade. 

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38 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

I have never bashed Baker Mayfield, quite the opposite actually. I literally spent 25 mins making a whole list of previous 1st round QBs for the past 10 years and where his insanely high completion percentage and QBR ranks compared to them. Its #1 by the way with only Russell Wilson coming in a close 2nd if I remember correctly. Deshone Kizer had the worst combination of Comp% and QBR in college of any top rated QB in the past decade. 

My apologies then.

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Look, I have never bashed any of the QB's available in this year's 1st round. The only knock I had was on Rosen, simply because he has had 2 concussions and a separated shoulder and isn't very mobile. It would scare me if we draft him, because he gets compared to Bradford for his statue like play in the pocket.

I have said repeatedly that I believe we will draft Darnold, but it is still possible that Allen could bypass him if he shows significant improvement after 2 months of training under a pro type QB coach and I absolutely believe in Mayfield. His leadership qualities completely remind me of Brees and I think he definitely has 1st round talent, the only knock I have on him is his height, a height that only 6% of the current starting QB's in the NFL have!

I would say there are only two types of prospects I ever actually hate, for all others I always keep an open mind!

1) I hate guys who show up to the Combine, completely out of shape and know from experience, that they will never survive in the NFL and have just completely wasted their talent. See Orlando Brown

2) I hate prospects who have real serious off the field character issues and cannot set their lives in order. Again I just hate the complete waste of talent that goes with not being able to stay clean of battering woman, crimes, drugs and all such things. See Josh Gordon

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On 3/19/2018 at 4:07 PM, Aztec Hammer said:

Interesting how Rosen is a perfect, refined prospect and Darnold is a bag of shhh that will throw it to the other team at any given moment...

We've had this conversation before. Using career stats instead of this year's stats can be helpful in some situations, but in this case it skips some important contextual points (Rosen starting as a true freshman, Darnold's regression year one to two).

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6 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

We've had this conversation before. Using career stats instead of this year's stats can be helpful in some situations, but in this case it skips some important contextual points (Rosen starting as a true freshman, Darnold's regression year one to two).

That’s fair. Context is important. Rosen had a really nice true fresh season. Statistically it was almost the same as his most recent one.

Darnold’s two seasons might as well be considered two different offenses. No Juju. No Darreus Rogers. Three main linemen moved onto to the nfl.

I really like both guys.

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6 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

We've had this conversation before. Using career stats instead of this year's stats can be helpful in some situations, but in this case it skips some important contextual points (Rosen starting as a true freshman, Darnold's regression year one to two).

...Baker laying an egg on the national stage against teams Ohio State and Texas as a junior...

;)

*Stirring the Pot*

:)

 

 

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1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

...Baker laying an egg on the national stage against teams Ohio State and Texas as a junior...

I mean, I'm talking about entire years of a career, not individual games. One game can give insight, but it can also cloud it because of complicating factors.

That 2016 OSU defense might be one of the 3-4 most talented college defenses of all time, and that's not overstating it. But yeah, that was probably the worst game of his college career (53% cmpl, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, not good, but better than like 50% of Allen's games this year lol). Once again, let us lol at Allen together. lol.

I don't know about the Texas one though. Dude threw for 390 yards, 71% cmpl, and 3 TDs. He had two INTs too, but overall not bad at all. The fact that that comes to mind for you as one of his BAD games says something about the quality of his college career.

Like, looking at 2016, outside of Ohio State and West Virginia (in which he only threw 15 times because it was such a blowout) Mayfield never once had a GAME at less than 66.7 cmpl%. Dude was hella accurate at the college level. 

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1 minute ago, freakygeniuskid said:

I mean, I'm talking about entire years of a career, not individual games. One game can give insight, but it can also cloud it because of complicating factors.

Oh, I mean, I totally agree with you, I just wanted to stir the pot. #offseason

The hard part about regression is that sometimes it's scheme (DeShaun Watson's turnovers...he was encouraged to take shots down the field on 3rd downs and a lot of 50/50 balls, leading to lots of turnovers), sometimes it's about a lack of surrounding talent (my argument for Darnold this year, especially in the OL department and the young WR early on lacking in experience), and sometimes it's definitely fair (It's a valid concern for Darnold, as it is about how good Baker's OL and surrounding skill players were WITH the scheme that he played in).

JMHO

1 minute ago, freakygeniuskid said:

That 2016 OSU defense might be one of the 3-4 most talented college defenses of all time, and that's not overstating it.

From a secondary standpoint, hard to argue against. The funny thing is, I still like their 2015 defense more.

1 minute ago, freakygeniuskid said:

But yeah, that was probably the worst game of his college career (53% cmpl, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, not good, but better than like 50% of Allen's games this year lol). Once again, let us lol at Allen together. lol.

I'll laugh hard at Josh Allen once I'm 100% sure we pass on him. The thought of us drafting him is too real for me to laugh yet...I'm legitimately scared.

1 minute ago, freakygeniuskid said:

I don't know about the Texas one though. Dude threw for 390 yards, 71% cmpl, and 3 TDs. He had two INTs too, but overall not bad at all. The fact that that comes to mind for you as one of his BAD games says something about the quality of his college career.

Considering how bad Texas' defense was and the fact that he threw 2 INT is what I'm mentioning. We're talking about a 5-7 team last year.

1 minute ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Like, looking at 2016, outside of Ohio State and West Virginia (in which he only threw 15 times because it was such a blowout) Mayfield never once had a GAME at less than 66.7 cmpl%. Dude was hella accurate at the college level. 

For sure. 

He's very accurate. I'm intrigued to see if that translates at the NFL level where people aren't "college spread scheme open". I'd also have loved to have seen how he would have done against OSU's defense Week 10. That's one of the reasons I had OSU losing to OU early in the season, especially coming off of the IU game. That, and of course JT Barrett...but that's another story LOL.

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So, I'm trying to get on board with Darnold. Because some of the most plugged in twitter "insiders" have told people to start getting used to Darnold #1. And I'm still really struggling.

Like, this is the Penn State bowl game, this is when he seemed to become the consensus favorite for #1 pick. And while he makes a handful of REALLY impressive throws, I can't help but see how many dink and dunkers he misses that Rosen/Mayfield would put on the money. I also can't help but notice how interceptable passes he throws (I counted three that hit defenders in the back/chest/hands and five more that were just lobbed up with multiple defenders in the area.) In general, he seems to work best outside of the scheme, which I don't love because in the NFL, improvisation is only valuable once the plan has failed. 80% of the time the best thing a QB will be able to do is to quickly and decisively execute the plan. And I can't stop noticing how many "plan" throws (screens, slants, quick comebacks/curls) Darnold misses. Like, the first two throws in the tape go over and behind a guy who sat down in a hole in zone, and then at the feet of his next target.

I just can't stop getting DA vibes. I mean, obviously he's way more mobile/athletic. But the whole, nail a 40 yard boundary pass and then immediately throw it straight into a defender on a slant thing is real here. His game ending drive? Mostly about two big PI penalties, and more, PI penalties where Darnold HITS THE DEFENDER IN THE BACK ON BOTH! Like, that CB turns around and you've got two game ending picks.

I'm gonna watch a few more game cut ups and hope to see something different, but right now, while he's got a ton of potential and seems like he has a solid mentality, I just have no idea why he's #1 over Rosen/Mayfield unless somebody is waaaaaaaay more concerned about the concussions/off-the-field stuff than I am. Like, why is he over Lamar Jackson? Both have big arms and make a few "wow" throws a game while also missing on some gimme throws every game. Both played in semi-pro style offenses. Both are athletic and mobile, having the ability to run but preferring to stay in the pocket. I'm hoping I see something from Darnold (I've seen the highlight plays, I mean some progression in hitting the easy stuff) that moves him up. But right now I think my tiers are staying Rosen/Mayfield and Darnold/Jackson.

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15 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

I'm gonna watch a few more game cut ups and hope to see something different, but right now, while he's got a ton of potential and seems like he has a solid mentality, I just have no idea why he's #1 over Rosen/Mayfield unless somebody is waaaaaaaay more concerned about the concussions/off-the-field stuff than I am.

I think that Darnold has a better frame than Mayfield with a lot fewer personality/off the field question marks. Fair or not, Baker's height puts him at a massive disadvantage as a prospect.

People are scared of Rosen's medical, which is valid, because it's more extensive than anyone would want to admit. I think that the personality is overblown personally, but whatever. Rosen also has an inferior arm to Darnold.

15 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Like, why is he over Lamar Jackson?

A 57% completion rate for one. That's a lot of meat left on the bone.

15 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Both have big arms and make a few "wow" throws a game while also missing on some gimme throws every game. Both played in semi-pro style offenses. Both are athletic and mobile, having the ability to run but preferring to stay in the pocket.

Darnold does better from the pocket IMO. Jackson shows major flashes, but also has major accuracy issues as well. His frame is also slighter at 215.

15 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

I'm hoping I see something from Darnold (I've seen the highlight plays, I mean some progression in hitting the easy stuff) that moves him up. But right now I think my tiers are staying Rosen/Mayfield and Darnold/Jackson.

I won't speak to the rest of your post above all this (PSU FILM for example), because you have some valid points, although I'd argue he's WAY more athletic than DA and WAY more accurate than DA.

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45 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

A 57% completion rate for one. That's a lot of meat left on the bone.

Yet again, career vs. last year stats. His last year was 59% despite his receivers dropping more than double the passes of Darnolds. When you adjust for drop % Darnold and Jackson's last year cmpl% is pretty similar.

46 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Darnold does better from the pocket IMO. Jackson shows major flashes, but also has major accuracy issues as well. His frame is also slighter at 215.

See, I don't think I agree. Darnold's best moments in the games I've watched and highlights come when the play breaks down and he's forced out of the pocket, he is a SPECIAL improviser and has tons of self-belief. Whereas my favorite Jackson throws all come inside the pocket, especially "avoid pressure and step up" throws. I don't really care about the frame issue since it's ten pounds and an NFL training regimen can take care of that no problem. It's a thing, but I don't see how it swings things.

48 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I won't speak to the rest of your post above all this (PSU FILM for example), because you have some valid points, although I'd argue he's WAY more athletic than DA and WAY more accurate than DA.

I don't disagree, especially the raw athleticism. I was more talking about how he's infuriating in the same way, where he hits a seemingly impossible pass at least 1-2 times a game, but then misses at least 4-5 super easy passes every game too. I hope he becomes more consistent on those as he develops his footwork and timing, but I just don't know if it's a good assumption to make when I see the same issue 2016 and 2017.

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