2023 NFL Draft Talk

[ET80]

31 minutes ago, ObotimusPrime said:

And I still like Hendon Hooker after the acl injury. If we’re able to sign Jimmy and draft Hooker in the 2nd or 3rd round it would immediately improve or QB room for the next year, and allow us to potentially get two studs/ BPAs with our two 1st rounders. 

I’m a big Hendon Hooker fan, but he’s going to be 25 next season (a season that’s basically a redshirt season due to the ACL - Hooker is older than Davis Mills). His first taste of NFL action at NFL speeds, he’ll be 26. How many years do you realistically get out of a 25 year rookie who is going to need time to come back from an injury and was already going to need time to acclimate away from his college read-option tendencies?

Age and injury is going to drop Hooker to day 3 or UDFA - he’s this season’s Carson Strong (remember how people said Strong was a sleeper 1st round guy, and then he went completely undrafted?) There’s an opportunity to stash him on a practice squad or keep him on a futures contract, but he’s going to need time to get a return. I like him a lot though, he’s the type of QB a team like Detroit drafts to marinade behind Jared Goff.

[PAtexansFAN_99]

I have a confession to make.. I watched a few game tapes of a few of these QBs I've been talking about as being viable, and they look far less impressive than I thought they would based on their highlights..

Cameron Ward is probably the most appealing among the 2nd tier of QB prospects. There's some innate playmaking ability there. The accuracy is a bit too inconsistent for me, and he's got happy feet, the ball security is very questionable. I imagine he's several years away from being playable. 

Max Duggan also seems like an offense can be designed in which he's a top 20 or so QB in the NFL. He's a good athlete, and he's got some arm talent, I saw some impressive throws. Ultimately though the accuracy is inconsistent. To me, he looks like he might actually be able to win some games in the NFL. I'd probably prefer Duggan to Ward. 

Jaren Hall is similar to Duggan in my opinion. Good athlete, good arm. Pretty accurate for the most part. Ultimately, I kept wanting to see one of these guys just like, put the team on their back and win a game that way, but it like never happened in the games I watched. Hall vs Baylor was one of the more impressive games I watched of any of these guys. 

If they decide Mills has capped out, I suppose taking Bryce Young at 1.1 makes good sense. But also, if watching these games told me one thing it's that I really, really want Quentin Johnston. They target him so many times on crucial downs and he consistently comes up with the first downs. That is what a #1 WR is supposed to look like. 

There's also now like, drafting Bryce Young vs hedging our Davis Mills bet with a FA, or straight up replacing him with someone like Derek Carr who will seemingly be available. Mike White could be a nice hedge if we go with Mills again, and if the Jets replace him. Honestly, Sam Darnold is intriguing to me. I've always wanted Darnold, I'd be interested to see if Pep could get him going in the right direction. That dude is immensely talented. 

We've got options. I need to see Mills ball out these last two weeks. If he ****s the bed, I'll hop aboard the BY bandwagon. If he looks good, I think things are allowed to get a little more complicated. 

[ET80]

4 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

We've got options. I need to see Mills ball out these last two weeks. If he ****s the bed, I'll hop aboard the BY bandwagon. If he looks good, I think things are allowed to get a little more complicated. 

So... define "****s the bed" for me, because that seems to be pretty subjective and open to interpretation with you. I argue that the bed is basically a septic tank with all of the Davis Mills poo that's been plopped on it the last three weeks, but you see something different.

I'm totally cool with us having different opinions on this but let me know before we watch this week - what does a bad Davis Mills week look like to you?

[ObotimusPrime]

6 hours ago, ET80 said:

I’m a big Hendon Hooker fan, but he’s going to be 25 next season (a season that’s basically a redshirt season due to the ACL - Hooker is older than Davis Mills). His first taste of NFL action at NFL speeds, he’ll be 26. How many years do you realistically get out of a 25 year rookie who is going to need time to come back from an injury and was already going to need time to acclimate away from his college read-option tendencies?

Age and injury is going to drop Hooker to day 3 or UDFA - he’s this season’s Carson Strong (remember how people said Strong was a sleeper 1st round guy, and then he went completely undrafted?) There’s an opportunity to stash him on a practice squad or keep him on a futures contract, but he’s going to need time to get a return. I like him a lot though, he’s the type of QB a team like Detroit drafts to marinade behind Jared Goff.

Yes, I know he’ll be older than we’d like, but I don’t think he’ll go undrafted. Strong didn’t put up Heisman like numbers in the SEC like Hooker did before getting hurt. If he falls to day 3, even better. Wouldn’t be opposed to drafting 2 QBs if we pick one in the first. I just think the Texans need to take as many shots at getting a QB until they’ve found their guy. It’s hard watching games while we’re in QB purgatory. 
 

Given his age, yes I think he should be on a shorter leash than a typical 22 year old rookie. Let’s say 8 games before move on from him hypothetically. But sometimes guys just have the “it” factor when they come into the league. It only took us a handful of games to realize qb4 was going to be the guy. 

[ET80]

3 hours ago, ObotimusPrime said:

Wouldn’t be opposed to drafting 2 QBs if we pick one in the first.

I actually like this idea - sort of like RG3 and Cousins back in 2011 with Washington. Draft two if you want to hedge, but the odds of finding a QB that works out are greater with a 1st than it is anywhere else.

3 hours ago, ObotimusPrime said:

Yes, I know he’ll be older than we’d like, but I don’t think he’ll go undrafted. Strong didn’t put up Heisman like numbers in the SEC like Hooker did before getting hurt.

I think Hooker also had health issues in Virginia Tech? I forget the nature of it, but it was one of the reasons he transferred.

I’m probably harsh in saying UDFA, but early day 3 does seem likely. 

[Blaze]

I'm too lazy to do the research but were the comparisons of Mahomes from Texas Tech similar to what Will Levis is getting? Generally asking because I know Mahomes had the tools but he had a bunch of questions as well.

[Pastor Dillon]

12 hours ago, Blaze said:

I'm too lazy to do the research but were the comparisons of Mahomes from Texas Tech similar to what Will Levis is getting? Generally asking because I know Mahomes had the tools but he had a bunch of questions as well.

I haven’t seen that comparison but I don’t think anyone saw Mahomes becoming what he has become, especially this quickly. He was a semi successful college QB that played for a team that had limited success. 
 

so I could see people hoping Levis has that kind of potential 

[ET80]

59 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

I haven’t seen that comparison but I don’t think anyone saw Mahomes becoming what he has become, especially this quickly. He was a semi successful college QB that played for a team that had limited success. 
 

so I could see people hoping Levis has that kind of potential 

Mahomes was a bit more than semi successful in college - but more importantly, he landed in the absolute perfect situation with two elite pass catchers, a QB whisperer HC and an established QB ahead of him so there was no rush to start him.

Levis wasn't nearly as successful in college (he actually regressed a bit this season) and doesn't have the physical traits that Mahomes has (notably, the A+ arm strength that Mahomes is known for). Levis looks the part (6’ 5” 240) and looks really good throwing the ball when he’s in shorts and a t-shirt, throwing to guys running against no secondary. I predict he’s going to have the throw that breaks Twitter this draft season (think about that one time Zach Wilson threw that cross field post route and everyone freaked out…)

(Edit: THIS throw, remember? Nobody heard of Wilson until this went viral).

Now, Levis CAN develop into a plus starter, but you have to find a perfect situation like Mahomes has (Seattle - with WRs DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett, QB whisperer Pete Carroll and QB Geno Smith - seems like the best possible fit). There, Levis could hit his ceiling - which I think is Carson Wentz in 2016/17, very respectable, MVP caliber ceiling. His floor is scary, he's Christian Hackenberg with the wrong supporting cast and coaching. People look at him and WANT to see Josh Allen - but if you actually watch him play, you come away very unimpressed.

I honestly think Levis is going to get a GM fired (unless it’s John Schneider).

[Pastor Dillon]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Mahomes was a bit more than semi successful in college - but more importantly, he landed in the absolute perfect situation with two elite pass catchers, a QB whisperer HC and an established QB ahead of him so there was no rush to start him.

Levis wasn't nearly as successful in college (he actually regressed a bit this season) and doesn't have the physical traits that Mahomes has (notably, the A+ arm strength that Mahomes is known for). Levis looks the part (6’ 5” 240) and looks really good throwing the ball when he’s in shorts and a t-shirt, throwing to guys running against no secondary. I predict he’s going to have the throw that breaks Twitter this draft season (think about that one time Zach Wilson threw that cross field post route and everyone freaked out…)

(Edit: THIS throw, remember? Nobody heard of Wilson until this went viral).

Now, Levis CAN develop into a plus starter, but you have to find a perfect situation like Mahomes has (Seattle - with WRs DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett, QB whisperer Pete Carroll and QB Geno Smith - seems like the best possible fit). There, Levis could hit his ceiling - which I think is Carson Wentz in 2016/17, very respectable, MVP caliber ceiling. His floor is scary, he's Christian Hackenberg with the wrong supporting cast and coaching. People look at him and WANT to see Josh Allen - but if you actually watch him play, you come away very unimpressed.

I honestly think Levis is going to get a GM fired (unless it’s John Schneider).

Mahomes threw for a lot of yards in an air raid offense 

as a freshman they went 4-8

as a sophomore they went 7-6

as a Junior they went 5-7

he was not very successful as a college QB. 
 

no one thought he would win MVP his 2nd season or a Super Bowl his 3rd and pretty much become a top 3 QB in the league nearly instantly. 

[Blaze]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Mahomes was a bit more than semi successful in college - but more importantly, he landed in the absolute perfect situation with two elite pass catchers, a QB whisperer HC and an established QB ahead of him so there was no rush to start him.

Levis wasn't nearly as successful in college (he actually regressed a bit this season) and doesn't have the physical traits that Mahomes has (notably, the A+ arm strength that Mahomes is known for). Levis looks the part (6’ 5” 240) and looks really good throwing the ball when he’s in shorts and a t-shirt, throwing to guys running against no secondary. I predict he’s going to have the throw that breaks Twitter this draft season (think about that one time Zach Wilson threw that cross field post route and everyone freaked out…)

(Edit: THIS throw, remember? Nobody heard of Wilson until this went viral).

Now, Levis CAN develop into a plus starter, but you have to find a perfect situation like Mahomes has (Seattle - with WRs DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett, QB whisperer Pete Carroll and QB Geno Smith - seems like the best possible fit). There, Levis could hit his ceiling - which I think is Carson Wentz in 2016/17, very respectable, MVP caliber ceiling. His floor is scary, he's Christian Hackenberg with the wrong supporting cast and coaching. People look at him and WANT to see Josh Allen - but if you actually watch him play, you come away very unimpressed.

I honestly think Levis is going to get a GM fired (unless it’s John Schneider).

I guess I'm trying to find a way not to be disappointed by finding other QB options that may hit.. I envision the Texans winning out and dropping to #3 and missing out on Young. It's the Texan way that nothing goes the way it should. 

[ET80]

2 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Mahomes threw for a lot of yards in an air raid offense 

as a freshman they went 4-8

as a sophomore they went 7-6

as a Junior they went 5-7

he was not very successful as a college QB. 

By success, I mean stats. Levis has never thrown for 3,000 in a single season or had a TD/INT ratio better than 2:1 - most of his numbers come from really inferior competition (he’ll blow up Miami of Ohio and Northern Illinois, but gets blown up by Tennessee to the tune of 98 yards and 3 INTs).

[Blaze]

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/analysis/why-kentuckys-will-levis-could-be-first-qb-taken-in-2023-nfl-draft/

Actually a solid, lengthy read on Levis. I just don't know about him but I hope the best. I do know, he will be backing up Mills at the beginning. Young will not, Stroud probably not either. 

[Pastor Dillon]

36 minutes ago, ET80 said:

By success, I mean stats. Levis has never thrown for 3,000 in a single season or had a TD/INT ratio better than 2:1 - most of his numbers come from really inferior competition (he’ll blow up Miami of Ohio and Northern Illinois, but gets blown up by Tennessee to the tune of 98 yards and 3 INTs).

I agree with that, but I’m just saying no one thought Mahomes would be this good. 

[Pastor Dillon]

Young looked pretty good today, I’ll give him that. I think he’s the pick unless stroud wins today. 

[ET80]

45 minutes ago, Blaze said:

I guess I'm trying to find a way not to be disappointed by finding other QB options that may hit.. I envision the Texans winning out and dropping to #3 and missing out on Young. It's the Texan way that nothing goes the way it should. 

I honestly don’t have us beating Jacksonville. It’s pretty safe to say they’re one of the hottest teams in football. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t turned over the ball in nearly two months, he’s finally figured it out and is only getting better on a weekly basis.

Even if the narrative is “the Texans always beat Jax” the other narrative we can rely on is “the Texans always lose in Indy”. So, we have a path to losing to Bryce.

As far as Levis? I mean, he has the baseline traits to get excited about - big arm, can make every single throw to all parts of the field, has a good sense on how to run as a QB, can take a hit and get up with ill effect - he can be an OK QB, I guess. Good coaching can make him better…