2023 NFL Draft Talk

[ET80]

5 minutes ago, mse326 said:

We had more success with Schaub than Watson and Carr combined.

Again - incorrect. Watson alone has as many division titles and playoff wins.

5 minutes ago, mse326 said:

How have the Browns done with Baker, and Manziel, and Weeden, and Brady Quinn

As well as Schaub did - one playoff win from Baker. But none of those guys are CJ Stroud or Bryce Young, so it's a moot point.

5 minutes ago, mse326 said:

Or the Bears with Fields, and Trubisky, and Grossman, and McCown

Better than Schaub. Grossman made a SB run. But none of those guys are CJ Stroud or Bryce Young, so it's a moot point.

5 minutes ago, mse326 said:

Or the Jets with Wilson and Darnold

Ok, we found one Schaub outdoes. But none of those guys are CJ Stroud or Bryce Young, so it's a moot point.

5 minutes ago, mse326 said:

Daniel Jones is what happens when you take a QB just to take a QB

Yeah... so is Josh Allen. 

But none of those guys are CJ Stroud or Bryce Young, so it's a moot point.

You have yet to tell anyone why you don't like Stroud or Young. As far as I can glean, you don't like them simply because they're not Caleb Williams. Care to elaborate?

[mse326]

34 minutes ago, ET80 said:

You have yet to tell anyone why you don't like Stroud or Young.

I have you just haven't listened.

Stroud gets happy feet and makes generally poor decisions when under a modicum of pressure. He also hasn't shown me the ability to go through reads if he doesn't have a 100% clear pocket to just stand in. These are things that are hard to teach out and has led to the downfall of many talented passers.

Young we'd be foolish to just overlook size. He isn't just short he is small. Like really small. I think people are overrating his arm. When he has the pocket to step into it, there is no problem, he can generate a bunch of zip. But when he is on the move and really can only generate with his arm instead of whole body it is average to me. Add to that while he generally is good in the pocket with footwork I do think there are times he is too quick to bail out.

Remember I said I can live with Young, I think he'll be a good QB, but I don't see a guy that can be the true driving force of the offense. I'm not saying game manager level but he'll need a good offense in terms of scheme and talent around him to be a top level QB. He won't make guys better. I see a slightly better Tua. If we had more talent on this team I'd be fine with him. I think we would be better in the long run if we use this year to build and aquire talent then get the QB after. I do think he'd make us better but that is actually a problem because he'll make us better but not near good enough to be exciting so we won't get high end draft talent and that is where you really have to get your stars. You can fill starting positions and depth with FA, but your stars will rarely come from there. So we won't be able to get those few top pieces that can make an offense or defense, we'd have to rely on everyone but at least a steady performer and that will take a long time with where we are at. By the time we even have a chance to be good, he'd be nearing the need for another contract if he is worth it. If we got more talent this year I'd even be ok with a Young level player, my estimation of what he is, in the next draft. So it isn't even that I'm banking on Williams or Maye. We just need talent and I think taking a QB just because we need a QB when there are better rated players not getting the QB bump is a mistake. 

[ET80]

3 hours ago, mse326 said:

I have you just haven't listened.

I went through this entire thread - all 27 pages - and this is the closest thing you said to what you just outlined below:

On 11/17/2022 at 3:12 PM, mse326 said:

I don't think that highly of Stroud and Young. I think both have shown serious holes this year. They are the top of the class, but I don't see franchise QBs in them. And at pick 1 or 2 you take a franchise player, not just a really good player

There's a difference between this and your current assessment - "shown serious holes" isn't nearly as comprehensive as what you just shared. If you said it somewhere else - Gen, Draft, CFB, Twitter, wherever - I can't be held responsible for knowing your thoughts on it. 

Nonetheless, let's look at your assessment.

3 hours ago, mse326 said:

Stroud gets happy feet and makes generally poor decisions when under a modicum of pressure. He also hasn't shown me the ability to go through reads if he doesn't have a 100% clear pocket to just stand in. These are things that are hard to teach out and has led to the downfall of many talented passers.

I know you're not big into individual instances, but that Georgia game (and last years' game vs Michigan) says he has the ability to process and execute cleanly under duress - but this is a valid criticism and it's probably the only real flag I have with Stroud, his improvisation skills and composure under duress. I'll be the first to admit that my feelings on Stroud were lukewarm through this whole process mostly due to this - but seeing that he HAS this skillset gives me a different perspective (it's inconsistent, sure - but it's there).

This being said - an OC who is willing to run an offense with WCO principles along with a lot of pre snap motion and timing-style "see, go and throw" concepts could mitigate a lot against that. Let him read pre-snap (a strength of his, and aided with frequent motion) get to the top of a three step drop and throw to a spot where a WR is supposed to be (strength). Multi-option routes, double break routes and deeper drops aren't on the menu yet, let him spend his first season running an offense that is simpler to digest and execute - build his confidence, let him gradually build on additional skillset that he's demonstrated (briefly demonstrated). It's not exciting, he's not going to throw for a gazillion yards and TDs in a setup like this, but it's an efficient way to build those skillsets he has ...but doesn't use consistently.

No rookie QB is coming in throwing the ball all over the yard for 4,000 and 30 TDs. Regardless of who the QB is (or - better stated - what year the QB is drafted) an OC has to create a modified script and gameplan that doesn't overwhelm, but puts the offense/QB in positions to succeed. So shelter Stroud while his spatial awareness and internal clock evolve (because they will, Stroud has the work ethic to manufacture these talents within the right offensive structure). Y2, you can start putting a foot on the throttle - hopefully with a better WR unit and better parts along the OL.

3 hours ago, mse326 said:

Young we'd be foolish to just overlook size. He isn't just short he is small. Like really small. I think people are overrating his arm. When he has the pocket to step into it, there is no problem, he can generate a bunch of zip. But when he is on the move and really can only generate with his arm instead of whole body it is average to me. Add to that while he generally is good in the pocket with footwork I do think there are times he is too quick to bail out.

I don't try to argue the size thing, because it's a legitimate concern - but I also ask, is the danger of injury from size or play style? Deshaun was 6' 4" 230, but was reckless when he ran, taking on a lot of unnecessary impact. Robert Griffin III was 6" 3" 225, but had the same issues. The only "small" QB youu can point to who gets hurt a ton is Kyler, and all of those were soft tissue or non contact injuries. As far as his arm - I don't grade by strength of the arm, he's not going to make a throw like Josh Allen to John Brown (to be fair, there are only two people on the planet who could make that throw) but I like the way he deploys his arm; Regardless of arm slot or base, the ball pops out of his hand with a clean release, and gets to the intended spot with little effort. He's not threading a tight needle or uncorking a cross field go route, but he puts the ball where it needs to be.

The bailout part feels like a rookie thing (Watson was this guy) so that's just price of doing business with a young QB (no pun intended). It'll improve over time.

3 hours ago, mse326 said:

Remember I said I can live with Young, I think he'll be a good QB, but I don't see a guy that can be the true driving force of the offense. I'm not saying game manager level but he'll need a good offense in terms of scheme and talent around him to be a top level QB. He won't make guys better. I see a slightly better Tua. If we had more talent on this team I'd be fine with him. I think we would be better in the long run if we use this year to build and aquire talent then get the QB after.

I get what you're saying, but actually believe differently - rookies tend to learn from vets, I don't think this is some groundbreaking revelation. I think a QB should be the driver behind rookie development at other positions vs another position trying to mentor a rookie QB, you know? A WR knows what they're supposed to do, an OL knows what they're supposed to do, a QB needs to know what everyone is doing; I'd rather a vet QB directing traffic, calling out blitzers to the OL and putting his younger WR/TE in position vs an OL and WR/TE group trying to force feed their responsibility to a young QB. I think it's better for the QBs development too, you have a tendency to better learn your mark when you're teaching vs observing and getting direction - you're speaking it into existence while teaching, if you will.

Both Stroud and Young have that football IQ and leadership intelligence to make their mark and make it THEIR offense. The guy that REALLY demonstrated this was Hendon Hooker, too bad he got hurt when he did.

 

[Pastor Dillon]

Lions GM indicated they play to move forward with Goff as their QB, which would eliminate one team needing a QB

[lumberjackchris]

 

[Blaze]

43 minutes ago, lumberjackchris said:

 

Maybe so but I don't think it's for Bryce Young. We see it every year. Measurables often dictate where players are drafted regardless of film. Much as I love Bryce Young, I dont see any team trading up for him. My bet, if anything would be for Indy to trade up for Levis. He seems like their type of QB.

[ET80]

18 minutes ago, Blaze said:

Maybe so but I don't think it's for Bryce Young. We see it every year. Measurables often dictate where players are drafted regardless of film. Much as I love Bryce Young, I dont see any team trading up for him. My bet, if anything would be for Indy to trade up for Levis. He seems like their type of QB.

I agree with this - we have yet to get measurements and times and those things will make more of an impact than actual production. Bryce Young is going to come in at 5’ 10” 190lbs - that’s fine if a team is using one pick for one players, but investing multiple 1st and other premium picks on that? I doubt it. Indy is going to look at traditional H/W guys, and Stroud has just as good a resume… and then there’s the guy who looks like he’s built to play QB, Will Levis. This guy is going to look fantastic throwing in a sterile environment and people are going to project abilities onto him that he doesn’t have - namely, playing QB.

I mean, did anyone have Zach Wilson ahead of Justin Fields pre-draft? No, the answer is a resounding NO. Then… Wilson threw the ball around in his pro day and people couldn’t wait to bust on him. I am nearly certain that Levis is going to do the exact same thing - my only hope is the Texans aren’t the team who falls for it. Levis is Christian Hackenberg, a big dude with an arm that can throw the ball far and with good velocity, but that’s about it. We see this guy show up every year, every year scouts overvalue him… and every year he fails.

[Blaze]

7 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I agree with this - we have yet to get measurements and times and those things will make more of an impact than actual production. Bryce Young is going to come in at 5’ 10” 190lbs - that’s fine if a team is using one pick for one players, but investing multiple 1st and other premium picks on that? I doubt it. Indy is going to look at traditional H/W guys, and Stroud has just as good a resume… and then there’s the guy who looks like he’s built to play QB, Will Levis. This guy is going to look fantastic throwing in a sterile environment and people are going to project abilities onto him that he doesn’t have - namely, playing QB.

I mean, did anyone have Zach Wilson ahead of Justin Fields pre-draft? No, the answer is a resounding NO. Then… Wilson threw the ball around in his pro day and people couldn’t wait to bust on him. I am nearly certain that Levis is going to do the exact same thing - my only hope is the Texans aren’t the team who falls for it.

I honestly don't think Caserio can afford to risk his job on Levis at #2. You can sell Bryce and Stroud and Carter or Anderson if you go defense. 

[ET80]

1 minute ago, Blaze said:

I honestly don't think Caserio can afford to risk his job on Levis at #2. You can sell Bryce and Stroud and Carter or Anderson if you go defense. 

Well then… imagine a new GM looking at Levis and saying “that’s my guy…”

[Pastor Dillon]

Levis seems 70% Bust 30% all pro and nothing in between. 
 

he could be a Big Ben, Josh Allen type or he could be Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel 

I really want to see Young’s measurements, if he even shows up at the combine. Is he 5ft 10 or closer to 6ft? 
 

Wilson has had a great career but really struggled this season. Kyler Murray sucked it up. Tua can’t stay healthy. 
 

there’s just not many examples of sub 6ft talk QBs with a small frame making it big. Drew Brees may be the best 6ft guy of all time and he had a solid frame and slightly over 6ft tall. 
 

young will have lots of problems seeing over NFL linemen. His durability is a concern. He’s not gonna be on the best team in football, he’s gonna be asked to carry the load on a rebuilding team with first year coaches. 

[Pastor Dillon]

I’m intrigued by Richardson but I think he will grade out as a day 2 pick. 
 

I would not be upset if we took a defensive player and a WR in round 1 and drafted Richardson at 33 to compete with Mills. 
 

I’ve been a large critic of Mills but I don’t think we should just cut the guy. Whoever we draft and whenever we draft then should be forced to compete for the job with Mills. 

[mse326]

2 hours ago, lumberjackchris said:

 

This is where you absolutely HAVE to trust your scouting of a player. Do not overrate the QB because you need him. And if you don't think he's good enough don't run scared from trading with a division rival for them to take.

I'd be perfectly fine trading the 2nd pick to the Colts for whoever they want and take the haul we get in return.

[ObotimusPrime]

The more I hear about Levis, the more I think he’s gonna fall to day 2. There’s so much talk this early in the draft cycle that he’s going to be overdrafted, usually, this kind of conversation usually doesn’t pop up until we’re much closer to the draft. It doesn’t seem like a lot of people think he’s that good but everybody thinks a GM will fall in love. (I hope the colts do) 

We all know this is a copy cat league with a heavy recency bias, and Zach Wilson was the last work out warrior that busted and that’s probably going to affect Levis’s stock dramatically. And yes, every now and then there’s a Josh Allen, and yes he was drafted on pure potential and his tools, but he went to a small college where it was “easier” to project his physical abilities. Similar to why Carson Wentz and Trey lance both went top 3. Levis played in the SEC, went against NFL players and should be easier to project as what I see as an average at best nfl player. 

Also, he’s also a 5th year senior who couldn’t beat out the Penn state quarterback - a qb who’s not gonna get drafted correct? 

Other thoughts:

My early prediction for the draft is that the colts or panthers will trade up to 1.1 and draft Stroud.

Short/ frail QBs have not fared well this season in the NFL. So even though I’d prefer Young for the Texans, I understand all the concern. I just think someone who’s put up these type of numbers in 2 years (8,000+ throwing yards), has this much passing attempts/ experience throwing the ball (in the SEC with a NFL offensive scheme) will not fail in the NFL… barring injury with me realizing that’s a big if. If he does bust, we know it won’t be for immaturity like a few other shorter QBs in the last 5-10 years.  

[Pastor Dillon]

Here’s a legit question: if Young played for Kentucky and Levis played for Alabama would young even be drafted in round 1?

[ET80]

22 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Here’s a legit question: if Young played for Kentucky and Levis played for Alabama would young even be drafted in round 1?

Assuming production stayed the same? Yeah. 

The biggest issue with Levis is that he has yet to consistently play good football. For every big game vs Louisiana Monroe (2021) he has a disaster showing vs Florida (2021). His game vs Tennessee this year was about as poor a showing I’ve ever seen from a college QB. 

And it’s not like he had a poor supporting cast - Wan’Dale Robinson is a very good WR, Chris Rodriguez is one of the best RBs in the SEC - but as soon as Robinson was drafted by the Giants, Levis was merely a mid QB who lit up D2 schools and lost every bit of composure whenever the talent level on the other side of the ball gave him a slight challenge.

If there is a specific game of Levis I need to watch to prove out how good of a QB he is, let me know. Conversely, if there’s a bit of game tape that shows Bryce Young isn’t the guy who should be drafted in the top 3, let me know. If you actually watch them, you see there’s a significant difference in their abilities.