Jump to content

2023 NFL Draft Talk


lumberjackchris

Recommended Posts

On 2/21/2023 at 2:12 PM, ET80 said:

Edit: Don’t discount a guy like TE Michael Mayer climbing up draft boards either - maybe not a WR, but is a prototypical TE who can do everything well. There are shades of Travis Kelce to his game, he just gets open and uses his size to win on his routes and in the open field.

TE is one of my favorite positions, but I’m against taking them in the 1st round. It’s been proven again and again that you can find them on day 2 or 3. When was the last impact TE taken in the first round? The 2 best TEs in the league were taken day 2 and there are plenty of busts when taking one then. 
 

I think TE is a positio. Of strength and one will fall to us/ there are so many holes on the team so better used at a premium position this year. 1st round TEs are a luxury imo. 
 

https://thefalconswire.usatoday.com/gallery/nfl-draft-falcons-tight-end-kyle-pitts-hayden-hurst-atlanta/

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/21/2023 at 2:12 PM, ET80 said:

I personally think JSN is the best of the group - the hamstring injury really took away this season, but this time last year he was the top WR at OSU (ahead of BOTH Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, two first round picks and the top two candidates for OROY). If he went top 15, I wouldn’t be shocked; Teams would be evaluating his film from 2021 and testing that hamstring… and would have to be comfortable thinking it’s an anomaly. His film from last season had him as a top 10 guy.

This being said, Jordan Addison is growing on me - he reminds me a lot of Devonta Smith with Philly, just a slick route demon with impeccable hands. The transfer to USC was good to get his name out there as a serious prospect, but his film from Pitt might be more impressive than his one season in SoCal. His timed speed is going to determine how high he goes, because his film is just filthy fun - his size is a concern, but that was the narrative on Smith as well. 

At the moment I think JSN won’t live up to his draft hype. But as you mentioned - all we’ve seen was his 2021 year when he had the two leading offensive ROY on the outside. In a great system for WRs. He was a 5 star coming out of HS, I’m not gonna say he’s gonna be a bust but I don’t like him at 12. Especially if he’s primarily a slot guy, we need a winner on the outside. 
 

As for Addison, weirdly enough his size concerns me more than Bryce. I definitely don’t want both our 1st round picks to be extremely undersized, small ball only works in the NBA (sometimes) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, ObotimusPrime said:

TE is one of my favorite positions, but I’m against taking them in the 1st round. It’s been proven again and again that you can find them on day 2 or 3. When was the last impact TE taken in the first round? The 2 best TEs in the league were taken day 2 and there are plenty of busts when taking one then. 
 

I think TE is a positio. Of strength and one will fall to us/ there are so many holes on the team so better used at a premium position this year. 1st round TEs are a luxury imo. 
 

https://thefalconswire.usatoday.com/gallery/nfl-draft-falcons-tight-end-kyle-pitts-hayden-hurst-atlanta/

 

Right now at this point - I’m qualifying them as pass catchers, hence why I listed Mayer.

This being said I think the most recent example is a strong case that drafting a TE in the 1st can pay dividends (Kyle Pitts was hamstrung by probably the worst QB play in football last season - even semi-competent play from Matt Ryan turned Pitts into a top 3 QB). Mayer is the type of guy who can further alter this narrative - and even if he isn’t, Brock Bowers will change the narrative in 2024, where he’s a legit top 3 prospect. In addition, TJ Hockenson is starting to live up to his billing, as is Evan Engram with Jacksonville - the talent was already there, but system specific changes needed to take place for them to thrive. We’re a bit removed from the days of Eric Ebron busting out hard.

I agree that a TE can be found in mid to late rounds - but specific to this draft, I don’t see that guy anywhere. We’re more likely to find more Brevin Jordan/Kahale Warring/CJ Fidorowitz-type TEs outside of round one. Honestly, I’m not terribly high on TE Dalton Kincaid either (Darnell Washington is such a unicorn at the position, I can’t help but to be interested in some capacity - not every day you have a 285lb TE who can actually move). Putting Mayer there is more of a reflection of Mayer the player vs the position itself.

39 minutes ago, ObotimusPrime said:

But as you mentioned - all we’ve seen was his 2021 year when he had the two leading offensive ROY on the outside. In a great system for WRs.

I don’t think the “great system for WRs” is a fair knock (if it was meant as a knock, mind you). As the two ROY guys proved, whatever that system is doing is actually developing WRs who can come in and compete against NFL talent from day one - and it isn’t done yet, JSN will end up being drafted in the top 40 picks, Marvin Harrison Jr will end up being drafted in the top 10 in 2024, and Emeka Egbuka is probably a top 25 pick in 2024. (Don’t be too surprised if Julian Fleming decides to live up to his billing as the best player in the 2018 freshman class and vault to the first, either). This great system for WRs is creating guys who step in and produce pretty quickly.

Much like how you said LSU is developing WRs at a healthy rate, OSU doing just as good a job. Brian Hartline is doing a great job of turning these 5-Star recruits into NFL talent - these guys came in as the cream of the crop in the nation, and they’re translating that ability into what NFL teams need at the position. Assuming that hamstring is not seriously injured, I expect JSN to continue down that path.

39 minutes ago, ObotimusPrime said:

As for Addison, weirdly enough his size concerns me more than Bryce. I definitely don’t want both our 1st round picks to be extremely undersized, small ball only works in the NBA (sometimes) 

Devonta Smith’s emergence has changed my opinion on the position. With so many rule changes that protect WRs from significant contact (not just targeting, but a renewed emphasis on defensive holding - we literally just saw a SB decided on that) the smaller guys aren’t as much of a riskier proposition. You can’t grab ‘em, you can’t jam ‘em, you can’t hit ‘em hard anymore… so little dudes like him can criss-cross the field without real repercussions. 

Trust me, I actually like the 6’ 4” 220lb guys to win out at the position - the 6’ 3” 210lb Harrison Jr is probably one of my favorite prospects in the past five years - but I don’t see enough in Quentin Johnston as an actual viable option as WR1 at this level. I think he’ll be a good WR (think Cortland Sutton ceiling, Corey Davis floor) but his technique in catching the ball needs a lot of improvement; With his physical gifts, he should be doing much more than what he did against traditionally soft secondaries in the Big 12. I’m also worried about how bad he looked against Kelee Ringo - I get that Max Duggan completely imploded vs Georgia, but Ringo was able to completely suffocate Johnston, he couldn’t get open because he couldn’t create separation in his routes - if he’s not bigger/faster/stronger, he’s not getting open. Part of the reason Duggan was a disaster is because Johnston couldn’t get open. 

That was probably the only game I saw him play vs an NFL caliber CB… and he didn’t look good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, jch1911 said:

@ET80 Look at the list of 1st round TE's in the past 15 years... history has not been kind (even our own O.J. Howard - who I hope we re-sign for cheap)

By this logic - should we pass on Brock Bowers if he’s on the board when we’re on the clock?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ET80 said:

By this logic - should we pass on Brock Bowers if he’s on the board when we’re on the clock?

I think we should do our due diligence.  Make sure analytics match with measureables.  Don't fall in love with a prospect because of reputation alone.

To be perfectly honest, I do not know anything about Brock Bowers - yet.

It's just a colleague and I had done a deep dive on 1st round TE's a few weeks back and as I said... history has not been kind.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, jch1911 said:

I think we should do our due diligence.  Make sure analytics match with measureables.  Don't fall in love with a prospect because of reputation alone.

To be perfectly honest, I do not know anything about Brock Bowers - yet.

It's just a colleague and I had done a deep dive on 1st round TE's a few weeks back and as I said... history has not been kind.

I understand that and I’ll always preface these takes with “climbing up the boards” or something like that - I guess what is unwritten is WHY they’re coming up the board, which is traditionally due to testing and due diligence matching up with the reputation gained. Every prospect is contingent on positive testing and research - in any given draft, there are only 1-2 players who defy this logic and are considered “sure things” (Will Anderson might be this years’ guy - last year didn’t have a guy [maybe Aiden Hutchinson?] Trevor Lawrence was that guy two years ago, etc).

I do fully understand that TE is a position that hasn’t lived up to expectations, but - similar to what you said - you can’t really fall “out of love” with a prospect because of positional reputation. Passing on Mayer because OJ Howard failed doesn’t make sense - in the same vein drafting Mayer because Kyle Pitts worked out doesn’t make sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/22/2023 at 9:25 PM, ET80 said:

Devonta Smith’s emergence has changed my opinion on the position. With so many rule changes that protect WRs from significant contact (not just targeting, but a renewed emphasis on defensive holding - we literally just saw a SB decided on that) the smaller guys aren’t as much of a riskier proposition. You can’t grab ‘em, you can’t jam ‘em, you can’t hit ‘em hard anymore… so little dudes like him can criss-cross the field without real repercussions. 

I hear ya, my point was I don’t think we should building our core around multiple undersized players. (So in the scenario of us drafting Bryce) Also, since we’re talking about Smith, he’s a good player but he’s a no.2 receiver. It wasn’t until they got AJ brown that their offense became truly dynamic. Brown is their go to guy to make the big plays. Smith was the heisman winning 1st round pick and AJ was a 2nd rounder. 
 

We need receiver help I just think it shouldnt be with the 12th pick in regards to this wideout class. And when we do get a receiver, I’d rather swing and get a no.1 receiver vs a no.2 option. 

Edited by ObotimusPrime
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/23/2023 at 9:49 AM, ObotimusPrime said:

I hear ya, my point was I don’t think we should building our core around multiple undersized players. (So in the scenario of us drafting Bryce)

I mean… I get it. I’m more subscribed that size along the trenches is more important than size at skill positions, but it doesn’t mean I don’t get it.

On 2/23/2023 at 9:49 AM, ObotimusPrime said:

Also, since we’re talking about Smith, he’s a good player but he’s a no.2 receiver. It wasn’t until they got AJ brown that their offense became truly dynamic.

He was trending towards #1 status as a rookie last season, and I’d argue the dynamic turn was moreso to Jalen Hurts taking a massive step as an actual passer. Yeah, AJ Brown was a significant find for them - but I believe a similar jump was on the horizon even without Brown.

On 2/23/2023 at 9:49 AM, ObotimusPrime said:

We need receiver help I just think it shouldnt be with the 12th pick in regards to this wideout class. And when we do get a receiver, I’d rather swing and get a no.1 receiver vs a no.2 option. 

I’m willing to split the difference and say trade down to 18 and grab JSN. I feel as if the guys considered 2nd round guys are there because they’re simply not as good as the top three guys - if the intent is to grab a legit #1 WR, you’re probably punting on this draft entirely; This class is pretty benign overall, 2024 is when the alpha WRs are available.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

I’m all for going all in on defense. Especially defensive line. We can get linebacker and secondary taken care of in free agency. 

Someone shared this stat/graph and I think it’s relevant to this train of thought. In essence - you can put together an All Star defense, the rule changes are set to where it’s inevitable that they’ll give up 30+ a few times. Defense has been legislated out of football for the most part, it doesn’t matter what scheme or personnel you have.

I’m not saying you shouldn’t draft defensive players - just saying that the return on investment is reduced because the rules are now set to give an offense every single advantage.

The graph also does a good job at specifying teams that don’t take advantage of these offensive rule changes - bottom left hand quadrant, only one team is worse than the Texans (and they’re picking ahead of us). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...