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2023 NFL Draft Talk


lumberjackchris

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5 minutes ago, ET80 said:

We get it, you don't like Bryce.

No clue why either. i found this quote from Bruce Feldman's Mock Draft on The Athletic this morning. Perfectly sums up Bryce. Size is a concern, but I can't see him failing due to talent.

 

“I am a big believer in Bryce. Been watching him forever. I was really impressed, especially with his intelligence and his decision-making. He’s emotionally mature and really accurate. We heard when Bill O’Brien got there, Bryce ended up teaching him the early stages of their offense. My only concern is that he’s little. At some point one of these gigantic interior guys is gonna land on him and you’ll be scared that he’s not gonna get up. His size scares me because against us, he really didn’t escape. We ran him down three or four times. We’ve got some good athletes, but those are the athletes that you’re trying to run away from at that level.”

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7 hours ago, LORK88 said:

No clue why either. i found this quote from Bruce Feldman's Mock Draft on The Athletic this morning. Perfectly sums up Bryce. Size is a concern, but I can't see him failing due to talent.

 

“I am a big believer in Bryce. Been watching him forever. I was really impressed, especially with his intelligence and his decision-making. He’s emotionally mature and really accurate. We heard when Bill O’Brien got there, Bryce ended up teaching him the early stages of their offense. My only concern is that he’s little. At some point one of these gigantic interior guys is gonna land on him and you’ll be scared that he’s not gonna get up. His size scares me because against us, he really didn’t escape. We ran him down three or four times. We’ve got some good athletes, but those are the athletes that you’re trying to run away from at that level.”

I sincerely don't understand it - I mean, since when did people take height/weight and measurements that have zero correlation over actual production on the field?

Bryce Young, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson all played in the SEC. Only one of them managed to actually succeed in the SEC - Young. Both Levis and Richardson were sub par at best. But now… I'm supposed to believe that Levis/Richardson > Young because of a few throws against air, with no pass rush? Seriously, Young’s worst year as a starter is nearly TWICE as good as Levis/Richardson‘s best years, there is a SIGNIFICANT difference statistically.

Somebody make this make sense to me.

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3 hours ago, ET80 said:

I sincerely don't understand it - I mean, since when did people take height/weight and measurements that have zero correlation over actual production on the field?

Bryce Young, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson all played in the SEC. Only one of them managed to actually succeed in the SEC - Young. Both Levis and Richardson were sub par at best. But now… I'm supposed to believe that Levis/Richardson > Young because of a few throws against air, with no pass rush? Seriously, Young’s worst year as a starter is nearly TWICE as good as Levis/Richardson‘s best years, there is a SIGNIFICANT difference statistically.

Somebody make this make sense to me.

To be fair, Bama does have way more talent than Florida and Kentucky 

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1 hour ago, lumberjackchris said:

To be fair, Bama does have way more talent than Florida and Kentucky 

Maybe in years past - but this past season? They have Jahmyr Gibbs and that’s about it. The transfer portal really killed a lot of their depth.

Despite this, Young doubled both up in just about every stat.

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I played qb in flag football leagues for years.  I played on the best team (backup qb but I started a handful of games against the top teams in the league, and beat most of the ones I played against) and I played on bad teams, and trust me, it is hard af to win on a bad team. Context matters. That's why I was such a huge Mills apologist. The texans SUCKED last couple of years. I'm not sure Brady in his prime could've had a winning record on those teams.. I say that to say, Levis/Richardson will likely be better once they are millionaires surrounded by nfl coaching and talent, and it's not insane to project based on their skill sets alone. That being said,  give me BY all day. 

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5 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

If it makes you feel better, once we actually draft him, give me a few days to mourn and then I’ll be his biggest fan and hope that I had him all wrong. 

I’ll be waiting for this moment, friend.

Call it a feeling, but I think he’s going to make us all proud.

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8 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

I played qb in flag football leagues for years.  I played on the best team (backup qb but I started a handful of games against the top teams in the league, and beat most of the ones I played against) and I played on bad teams, and trust me, it is hard af to win on a bad team. Context matters. That's why I was such a huge Mills apologist. The texans SUCKED last couple of years. I'm not sure Brady in his prime could've had a winning record on those teams.. I say that to say, Levis/Richardson will likely be better once they are millionaires surrounded by nfl coaching and talent, and it's not insane to project based on their skill sets alone. That being said,  give me BY all day. 

I mean - I understand this. But I think we are thinking of Alabama as who they were, not who they are right now.

The caliber of WRs isn’t like it was when it was Ridley/Cooper to Jeudy/Ruggs to Smith/Waddle to Williams/Metchie. There is no Najee Harris or OJ Howard to rely on either (heck, Brian Robinson Jr would be a slight upgrade). As far as offensive skill players, Alabama is awfully closer to the rest of the world vs the NFL factory we’ve been witness to in Tuscaloosa - Jahmyr Gibbs is probably the best skill player they have, and the Georgia Tech transfer is not on the same level as previous ‘bama RBs. Jermaine Burton was supposed to be WR1, but the Georgia transfer was stuck in the same mud that got him demoted from the Dawgs to begin with. Ja’Corey Brooks is a homeless mans’ Amari Cooper - I have him projected as a 3rd round pick in 2024, and this is contingent on him glowing up with a year of experience under his belt. Cameron Latu is a blocking TE who can probably project as a day 3 pick at best this draft, most likely an undrafted TE - at this level, he makes a living as a ST upblocker and an H-Back on the goal line. One day, Kendrick Law is going to be a BMOC and a mid first round guy, perhaps - but that’s it for Alabama right now, their offense is awfully vanilla in terms of ability. Defense has a few studs on the field, I’ll admit that - so that’s why Alabama can still win games (please note: wins aren’t a QB stat, so that’s why I didn’t reference W/L in my argument against Levis/Richardson. I’m talking strictly counting stats).

This isn’t a team that carries a QB - like when Ruggs/Jeudy/Waddle carried Tua or Devonta/Waddle/Metchie carried Mac - Bryce has to carry Brooks/Burton/Gibbs, there is no elite playmaker that makes him look better than he is. Sure, you can point at 2021 and say Bryce was carried by Jameson Williams and Metchie, but 2022? That Alabama offense would have sank like a stone if Bryce wasn’t there to keep the engine running in the right direction. 

This is one of the main reasons I’m so high on Bryce - this season’s 3328/32/5 is MUCH better than anything Levis/Richardson ever did in college, and it was with an offense that was about as equal as you’ll ever see from a Crimson Tide offense. They didn’t just win with superior firepower as they usually do, they won because Bryce made a bunch of mid-level players play over their heads.

That’s what you want the most out of a QB - a guy who makes players play above their talent level. It’s hard to gauge that, but when you see it, you gotta pounce on that guy.

 

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On 3/31/2023 at 7:01 AM, LORK88 said:

No clue why either. i found this quote from Bruce Feldman's Mock Draft on The Athletic this morning. Perfectly sums up Bryce. Size is a concern, but I can't see him failing due to talent.

 

“I am a big believer in Bryce. Been watching him forever. I was really impressed, especially with his intelligence and his decision-making. He’s emotionally mature and really accurate. We heard when Bill O’Brien got there, Bryce ended up teaching him the early stages of their offense. My only concern is that he’s little. At some point one of these gigantic interior guys is gonna land on him and you’ll be scared that he’s not gonna get up. His size scares me because against us, he really didn’t escape. We ran him down three or four times. We’ve got some good athletes, but those are the athletes that you’re trying to run away from at that level.”

There are 21 year old 300lb d line men in college just like there is in the NFL. The size difference isn’t that dramatic honestly.

The Texans scouts aren’t going to be like “oh Bryce could throw over his 6’5” oline men in college but as soon as he goes to the NFL, balls swatted and he’s gonna be too short!” same with “oh Bryce got landed on by big DE’s in college but as soon as he goes to the NFL, defensive players of the same size will flatten him!!” 

Draft analysts really shouldn’t be listened to. There’s a reason Kyler went first, freak athleticism and talent, not size, and while he may not reach his potential, that’s all mental and nothing to do with how his physical makeup is.

Contact sports all over the world like Rugby have short guys playing with tall guys, average weight vs. heavy set guys and they tackle without any gear on, it’s never an issue there but it is for football cause we create negative misconceptions that constantly get proven wrong by players like Russ, Brees, Kyler.

Edited by Drained
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3 hours ago, Drained said:

Contact sports all over the world like Rugby have short guys playing with tall guys, average weight vs. heavy set guys and they tackle without any gear on, it’s never an issue there but it is for football cause we create negative misconceptions that constantly get proven wrong by players like Russ, Brees, Kyler.

Let’s also take into consideration some QBs we know who were considered injury prone:

- Sam Bradford (6’ 4” 225)

- Robert Griffin III (6’ 3” 220)

- Andrew Luck (6’ 4” 240)

- Cam Newton (6’ 6” 250)

- Jimmy Garoppolo (6’ 2” 225)

- Sam Darnold (6’ 3” 230)

- Lamar Jackson (6’ 3” 230)

Now - from looking at this list, could I easily (and incorrectly) correlate that drafting a “big” QB is more likely to lead to an injury. Based on the data supplied here, pretty much everyone NOT named Bryce Young is more likely to get injured.

So, perhaps people are looking at this incorrectly - maybe it isn’t playing SIZE that gives you insight on an injury. Maybe it’s more about playing STYLE (run first guys, “escape artist” guys who fight off contact in the pocket and behind the LOS, etc). Kyler falls into the injury prone group, but all of his injuries are non contact injuries - hamstring pulls, rolled ankles and a torn ligament in his knee. Is any of that because he’s 5’ 10” or is it because he’s a run-first QB and escape artist in the pocket? 

So, I think those who evaluate and suggest a higher degree of injury hasn’t really thought about it…

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Problem solver Bryce Young is ideal for the Texans, just as the draft's best flat passer, Will Levis, is perfect for the team with the lowest Average Depth of Target, Indianapolis.

A remarkable free agency has put Houston into AFC-South contention.  They will need a WR who can get downfield fast, with or without the ball.  Draft Day will be interesting.

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1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Problem solver Bryce Young is ideal for the Texans, just as the draft's best flat passer, Will Levis, is perfect for the team with the lowest Average Depth of Target, Indianapolis.

A remarkable free agency has put Houston into AFC-South contention.  They will need a WR who can get downfield fast, with or without the ball.  Draft Day will be interesting.

People are vastly overhyping the Texans. We have a 1st time head coach, a 1st time OC, and we have lots of holes that we will depend on rookies to fill. 

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