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2023 NFL Draft Talk


lumberjackchris

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16 hours ago, Texansfan713 said:

im worried as well. 

I'm actually OK with this - for the first time ever, I don't really have a preference on the top two QBs. I see both as great fits for different reasons:

- Stroud is smooth in his mechanics, his reads and release and throws one of the most catchable footballs I've ever seen. His ceiling might cap out in the 6-8 range, but his floor is a top 15 QB IMO. 

- Young is incredibly explosive and elusive on the field, he is able to create throwing lanes with his footwork, body language and arm slotting. His size does lead to concerns on him bottoming out, but his football IQ and spatial awareness can vault him inside the top 5 of QBs. 

I'm actually pretty content with either. I'd prefer Young, but not gonna balk at Stroud. 

(I will vomit if it's Will Levis).

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5 hours ago, ET80 said:

I'm actually OK with this - for the first time ever, I don't really have a preference on the top two QBs. I see both as great fits for different reasons:

- Stroud is smooth in his mechanics, his reads and release and throws one of the most catchable footballs I've ever seen. His ceiling might cap out in the 6-8 range, but his floor is a top 15 QB IMO. 

- Young is incredibly explosive and elusive on the field, he is able to create throwing lanes with his footwork, body language and arm slotting. His size does lead to concerns on him bottoming out, but his football IQ and spatial awareness can vault him inside the top 5 of QBs. 

I'm actually pretty content with either. I'd prefer Young, but not gonna balk at Stroud. 

(I will vomit if it's Will Levis).

This is where I’m at. Even if we take Anderson at 1-2, with the plan being to move whatever capital next year to get a top QB prospect, im good with it. 

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7 hours ago, lumberjackchris said:

Even if we take Anderson at 1-2, with the plan being to move whatever capital next year to get a top QB prospect, im good with it. 

This...  would give me a lot of heartburn. Moving capital to get a QB isn't guaranteed to get the top QB prospect. What if a team like Atlanta gets 1.1 and decides to end the Desmond Ridder era? Do you think there's going to be any compensation to get them to trade away the opportunity to draft the best QB prospect since Trevor Lawrence? What sort of compensation is required to get a pick that's going to end up being an elite QB? Carolina just gave up a significant amount and an established player to go from 9 to 1, and that's in a year without a consensus #1 QB - next year, there's very little question on who QB1 is, Caleb Williams is pretty much a lock. How much is that really going to cost? 

Ultimately, you're banking on earning 1.1 outright (which... well, if anyone knows about how that can go, it's us) or hoping a team with an established QB (Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, etc) loses said QB and ends up with 1.1 - both of which are total crapshoots. Pretty much every team would replace their existing QB with Williams if the opportunity presented itself, save for about 10-12 teams that don’t realistically have a chance to pick that high. If you don't get 1.1 in those capacities, you're then punting a 2023 opportunity for inferior QB prospects to Young or Stroud (this includes Drake Maye - I’ll watch him more intently next season, but I have him firmly behind Stroud and Young).

Sometimes you can't look a gifted horse in the mouth, and a franchise QB will always be more valuable than a franchise edge defender. That's just how I see it, don't overthink this pick when you have two guys who have legitimate claims to being the BPA and top QB on the board.

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10 hours ago, ET80 said:

This...  would give me a lot of heartburn. Moving capital to get a QB isn't guaranteed to get the top QB prospect. What if a team like Atlanta gets 1.1 and decides to end the Desmond Ridder era? Do you think there's going to be any compensation to get them to trade away the opportunity to draft the best QB prospect since Trevor Lawrence? What sort of compensation is required to get a pick that's going to end up being an elite QB? Carolina just gave up a significant amount and an established player to go from 9 to 1, and that's in a year without a consensus #1 QB - next year, there's very little question on who QB1 is, Caleb Williams is pretty much a lock. How much is that really going to cost? 

Ultimately, you're banking on earning 1.1 outright (which... well, if anyone knows about how that can go, it's us) or hoping a team with an established QB (Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, etc) loses said QB and ends up with 1.1 - both of which are total crapshoots. Pretty much every team would replace their existing QB with Williams if the opportunity presented itself, save for about 10-12 teams that don’t realistically have a chance to pick that high. If you don't get 1.1 in those capacities, you're then punting a 2023 opportunity for inferior QB prospects to Young or Stroud (this includes Drake Maye - I’ll watch him more intently next season, but I have him firmly behind Stroud and Young).

Sometimes you can't look a gifted horse in the mouth, and a franchise QB will always be more valuable than a franchise edge defender. That's just how I see it, don't overthink this pick when you have two guys who have legitimate claims to being the BPA and top QB on the board.

All valid points...  but Jalen Hurts was a 2nd round pick  (was Raegor Eagles' pick before Jalen? I think so)... Joe Montana was a 3rd... IJS

I trust our coaches to know which QB's will work.

Pretty sure Brock Purdy was not high on 49ers list (hence 7th round), but they saw potential and he fit the system.

That being said, I have FINALLY come around on BY (even CJ).

Moreover, it we end up with Anthony Richardson and Will Anderson Jr. in the 1st... I will sleep just fine (and be excited about the upcoming season)

 

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2 hours ago, jch1911 said:

All valid points...  but Jalen Hurts was a 2nd round pick  (was Raegor Eagles' pick before Jalen? I think so)... Joe Montana was a 3rd... IJS

Joe Montana was drafted before I was alive, FTR - and I’m OLD. Hurts was in danger of losing his job until the end of last season and was initially drafted as an insurance policy if/when Carson Wentz didn’t return to form. 

I get what you’re saying, but I think these two examples aren’t exactly telling of the general condition - which is to win in the AFC, you’ll likely have to beat a combination of guys like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert and (specific to the AFCS) Lawrence. I don’t think that’s attainable unless you have a guy of that caliber.

2 hours ago, jch1911 said:

Moreover, it we end up with Anthony Richardson and Will Anderson Jr. in the 1st... I will sleep just fine (and be excited about the upcoming season)

I mean, I get it… but I don’t think I’ll share the same enthusiasm. We can just agree to disagree on Richardson.

2 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

I’m hoping with all I have that we get Stroud at pick 2. Why on earth would we consider passing on him?

I think the narrative that Lance Z is pushing (other than clickbait) is that Stroud is represented by David Mulegheta (Deshaun Watson’s agent) and that the business relationship between Mulegheta and the McNair family is burned.

I don’t personally believe it (holding grudges is a poor way to do business) but Lance Z gets paid by the click and gets how the Houston market works - so getting the 4th largest city clicking on his article to say “what the hell is he talking about?” puts money in his pocket. 

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On 4/8/2023 at 9:53 AM, Pastor Dillon said:

I’m hoping with all I have that we get Stroud at pick 2. Why on earth would we consider passing on him?

Agreed (though Young would be fine, too).  A top end rookie in a normal year rates to be average (16th) in the NFL.  According to another geek rule of thumb, going from a bottom end to an average QB (or from average to elite) is worth three games on its own.  This is over and above the free agents Houston has already acquired, the remaining draft capital (which began as #1), the cakewalk ease of schedule (3rd), and the cap space (5th with ~$21M today).

If the Texans front office doesn't do a complete faceplant...

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So, PFF with this three round mock:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-three-round-2023-nfl-mock-draft-colts-anthony-richardson-jets-calijah-kancey
 

1.2: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama 

***Trade: 1.12 to Pittsburgh for 1.17, 3.80***

1.17: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois 

2.33: Brian Branch, CB/S, Alabama 

3.65: Luke Wypler, C/G, Ohio State

3.73: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State

3.80: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati

Quite frankly, this mock is too good to be true. The secondary goes from promising to a league leader, you get your QBOTF with a new C and WR with some scary speed. Henley is really undersized and is going to have to bulk up, but he’s got the baseline tools to be a coverage LB on passing downs. Would have preferred an edge rusher here, but that’s my only real recommendation. 

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3 hours ago, ET80 said:

So, PFF with this three round mock:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-three-round-2023-nfl-mock-draft-colts-anthony-richardson-jets-calijah-kancey
 

1.2: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama 

***Trade: 1.12 to Pittsburgh for 1.17, 3.80***

1.17: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois 

2.33: Brian Branch, CB/S, Alabama 

3.65: Luke Wypler, C/G, Ohio State

3.73: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State

3.80: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati

Quite frankly, this mock is too good to be true. The secondary goes from promising to a league leader, you get your QBOTF with a new C and WR with some scary speed. Henley is really undersized and is going to have to bulk up, but he’s got the baseline tools to be a coverage LB on passing downs. Would have preferred an edge rusher here, but that’s my only real recommendation. 

I dont mind that mock. I like that we address the Secondary. It would struggle this season badly, but the future would be amazingly bright. I am still not sold that Stingley is going to turn into a great player, so this helps hedge that. 

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On 4/7/2023 at 6:53 PM, lumberjackchris said:

This is where I’m at. Even if we take Anderson at 1-2, with the plan being to move whatever capital next year to get a top QB prospect, im good with it. 

as long as they dont get the pick wrong, i'm great with whoever lol. I dont know who the right pick is, but dont get it wrong. Good luck front office!

 

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Anderson wouldnt be the end of the worst at pick 2 ONLY if Young went 1.  I love Anderson as a prospect and He will be a consistent 10 sack a year guy.

What I would hate is if we pass on Stroud at 2 and the Titans trade up with Arizona to take him.  That would sting big time.

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