2022 RDT

[bmorecareful]

2 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I need to correct my previous post because I did the math wrong and also didn't include the 2nd Cleveland game where Lamar only played like 10 snaps:

Huntley in 5 games: 20.17PPG and 347YPG

Lamar in 11 games: 24.18PPG and 396YPG

Lamar in 10 games in 2022: 24.8PPG and 350YPG

That's probably a much better representation of the difference between Lamar and Huntley. Team is still scoring over 24 PPG but the yardage has slipped a lot despite a better offensive line and a much improved running game.

Your ignoring the receiving options though… if we had last years receivers with everything else in tact… we would average 30 plus per game and 400 yards… I kno it’s impossible because we literally traded Hollywood for Tyler L but for arguments sake let’s pretend…

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

4 minutes ago, bmorecareful said:

Your ignoring the receiving options though… if we had last years receivers with everything else in tact… we would average 30 plus per game and 400 yards… I kno it’s impossible because we literally traded Hollywood for Tyler L but for arguments sake let’s pretend…

I mean the only year in Lamar's career he averaged over 30 was 2019 where we were 33 PPG and 407.56 YPG, and that was just with Hollywood and Andrews and the best run game in the NFL with probably the best OL in the NFL too.

It's not a stretch, but we also have to consider that Lamar since 2019 has never even sniffed being as good as he was that season, so thinking we're gonna average 30 PPG again by having better weapons also ignores that Lamar himself has significantly regressed every year since then, especially as a passer. Here's his advanced passing metrics every year since 2019:

Year	Att	Cmp%	Y/A+	NY/A+	AY/A+	ANY/A+	Cmp%+	TD%+	Int%+	Sack%+	Rate+
2019	401	66.1	110	114	123	125	106	143	114	108	128
2020	376	64.4	103	102	108	106	99	124	98	93	110
2021	382	64.4	108	102	98	95	98	97	77	80	94
2022	290	63.4	94	96	98	99	95	112	97	94	101

It's really not even comparable. Lamar from 2020 - 2022 is probably a much better indicator of his level of play than Lamar in 2019, where he was just on another level. At this point in the conversation, I want to just double back to my original point, which was that in some alternate reality where Lamar walks and we are forced to re-evaluate our QB position, it's my opinion that in our current offensive system we would never see our offense fall to the current levels of the NYJ or PIT teams simply because of the system we have in place with Roman, which does have a high-floor to it even with the extreme lack of ability to design a competent passing game.

[diamondbull424]

4 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I mean the only year in Lamar's career he averaged over 30 was 2019 where we were 33 PPG and 407.56 YPG, and that was just with Hollywood and Andrews and the best run game in the NFL with probably the best OL in the NFL too.

It's not a stretch, but we also have to consider that Lamar since 2019 has never even sniffed being as good as he was that season, so thinking we're gonna average 30 PPG again by having better weapons also ignores that Lamar himself has significantly regressed every year since then, especially as a passer. Here's his advanced passing metrics every year since 2019:

Year	Att	Cmp%	Y/A+	NY/A+	AY/A+	ANY/A+	Cmp%+	TD%+	Int%+	Sack%+	Rate+
2019	401	66.1	110	114	123	125	106	143	114	108	128
2020	376	64.4	103	102	108	106	99	124	98	93	110
2021	382	64.4	108	102	98	95	98	97	77	80	94
2022	290	63.4	94	96	98	99	95	112	97	94	101

It's really not even comparable. Lamar from 2020 - 2022 is probably a much better indicator of his level of play than Lamar in 2019, where he was just on another level. At this point in the conversation, I want to just double back to my original point, which was that in some alternate reality where Lamar walks and we are forced to re-evaluate our QB position, it's my opinion that in our current offensive system we would never see our offense fall to the current levels of the NYJ or PIT teams simply because of the system we have in place with Roman, which does have a high-floor to it even with the extreme lack of ability to design a competent passing game.

Lamar’s numbers are with him being the primary defensive focus, Huntley’s numbers are with defenses not having their defensive gameplan tailored around his specific tendencies.

Also while 2019 didn’t have elite weapons it’s still better than all the weapons outside of 2021, only 2021 was by far the worse rendition of our OL. Looking at the above numbers it’s quite easy to see a path where Lamar’s completion percentage increases with better weapons and it’s also easy to see where his turnovers would drop with a better OL, just look at his turnovers last season under a below average OL to this season with a great one.

A decrease in turnovers, an increase in TDs (more playmakers), and completion percentage would equate to numbers absolutely comparable to 2019.

Lamar’s actual passing fundamentals are improved over 2019, his pocket presence has improved this season as well. The major difference is we have no explosive element to this offense nor an elite run game to help boost efficiency as well.

That’s my analysis.

[bmorecareful]

5 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I mean the only year in Lamar's career he averaged over 30 was 2019 where we were 33 PPG and 407.56 YPG, and that was just with Hollywood and Andrews and the best run game in the NFL with probably the best OL in the NFL too.

It's not a stretch, but we also have to consider that Lamar since 2019 has never even sniffed being as good as he was that season, so thinking we're gonna average 30 PPG again by having better weapons also ignores that Lamar himself has significantly regressed every year since then, especially as a passer. Here's his advanced passing metrics every year since 2019:

Year	Att	Cmp%	Y/A+	NY/A+	AY/A+	ANY/A+	Cmp%+	TD%+	Int%+	Sack%+	Rate+
2019	401	66.1	110	114	123	125	106	143	114	108	128
2020	376	64.4	103	102	108	106	99	124	98	93	110
2021	382	64.4	108	102	98	95	98	97	77	80	94
2022	290	63.4	94	96	98	99	95	112	97	94	101

It's really not even comparable. Lamar from 2020 - 2022 is probably a much better indicator of his level of play than Lamar in 2019, where he was just on another level. At this point in the conversation, I want to just double back to my original point, which was that in some alternate reality where Lamar walks and we are forced to re-evaluate our QB position, it's my opinion that in our current offensive system we would never see our offense fall to the current levels of the NYJ or PIT teams simply because of the system we have in place with Roman, which does have a high-floor to it even with the extreme lack of ability to design a competent passing game.

But again.. the outside options also improve the running game because you have to defend the team different.. with Hollywood and a healthy Bateman and Andrews there is no way you could play the safeties as close to the line of scrimmage nor could u have multiple Lamar spies as multiple teams have implemented this season… No one o the team puts fear in other teams safety and LB game plan because of the lack of one on one threats on the perimeter… We are a short pass offense and everyone knows it… The craziest part of all of it is the fact that we appear to believe we have enough going forward to keep teams honest despite not having anyone show they can put pressure of defenses vertically… Like where is Andy Isabella… i kno he isn’t anything special but he can’t provide any less than Proche and Victor does for the team now…. We need help and it might not show in the wind and losses because of the schedule we have down the stretch but at some point it will and his knows I hope I’m wrong but u don’t see how I could be unless DJax turns back the clock 

[DreamKid]

One of the bigger surprises of the season thus far has to be the emergence of Broderick Washington. When is the last time we had this much young talent at DI? Buike, Washington, and Jones are all 25 or under. 

[diamondbull424]

6 hours ago, DreamKid said:

One of the bigger surprises of the season thus far has to be the emergence of Broderick Washington. When is the last time we had this much young talent at DI? Buike, Washington, and Jones are all 25 or under. 

Hopefully these guys have learned a lot from Campbell and can continue to perfect their craft when he’s no longer around- likely next season one can imagine.

In all likelihood with 6 more games to go he should *knock on wood* be able to finally eclipse that 100 sack mark that he was desperately targeting. 

So outside of a ring, he’s achieved everything he could really hope for in what should be a HOF career. Can’t imagine he’ll be back. So it’s definitely nice to have some hope that we should be good moving forward. We’ll have the above guys and Michael Pierce will also be back even if for only a number of games. 

[DreamKid]

13 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Hopefully these guys have learned a lot from Campbell and can continue to perfect their craft when he’s no longer around- likely next season one can imagine.

In all likelihood with 6 more games to go he should *knock on wood* be able to finally eclipse that 100 sack mark that he was desperately targeting. 

So outside of a ring, he’s achieved everything he could really hope for in what should be a HOF career. Can’t imagine he’ll be back. So it’s definitely nice to have some hope that we should be good moving forward.

I agree, I see him hitting that mark and riding off into the sunset. One of our all time imports for sure. If anyone "deserves a ring", it's him. His impact on and off the field for the club, across only a couple years of being here, is just incredible.

16 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

We’ll have the above guys and Michael Pierce will also be back even if for only a number of games. 

😆 Probably true. He's going to end up like our Jimmy Smith of the DL.

[Ray Reed]

11 hours ago, DreamKid said:

I agree, I see him hitting that mark and riding off into the sunset. One of our all time imports for sure. If anyone "deserves a ring", it's him. His impact on and off the field for the club, across only a couple years of being here, is just incredible.

😆 Probably true. He's going to end up like our Jimmy Smith of the DL.