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Grade the draft


JAF-N72EX

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I took a look at all drafts from 2011-2019 and compiled the data by age and wCAV similar to the article above. The only differences is that I used the age drafted instead of a cutoff date and then took it a step further by also separated them by each individual age, year and round.

As you can see below, age does matter as evidence by the average weighted AV.  The avg weighted AV at 20 in all rounds combined is 25.5 (although a smaller sample size) and the averages drop with each age.

  • Age 20: 25.5
  • Age 21: 21.4
  • Age 22: 15.8
  • Age 23: 12.9
  • Age 24: 11.0
  • Age 25: 5.4
  • Age 26: 8.4
  • Age 27+: 6.3
Xxxaj4t.png
 
 

If we're taking this at face value and using it as any prediction baseline for the Bears draftees then their careers will look like this.


Kyler Gorden:  22 (21.9 rounded up)
Similar wAV comps: 1.10 Eli Apple,  3.84 Kendall Fuller,  1.31 Bradley Roby,  6.173 Byron Maxwell,  2.41: Lamarcus Joyner

Jaquan Brisker:  26 (25.5)
Similar wAV comps:  2.33 Johnathan Cyprien,  5.147 Ricardo Allen,  3.91 Duron Harmon,  3.84 Shawn Williams,  1.6 Morris Claiborne

Velus Jones Jr:  2
Similar wAV comps:  1.7 Kevin White, 2.37 Devin Smith,  3.70 Jaelen Strong,  3.85 Braxton Miller, 3.83 Jerrel Jernigan

Braxton Jones/Dominique Robinson:  9
Similar wAV comps:  1.23 Danny Watkins,  2.52 Jake Fisher,  2.48 Jason Spriggs,  5.159 Jermaine Eluemunor,  5.155 Scott Quessenberry

Zachary Thomas:  6
Trestan Ebner:  7
Doug Kramer:  6
J’atyre Carter:  4
Elijah Hicks:  7
Trenton Gill: HOF (???)

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2 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

I took a look at all drafts from 2011-2019 and compiled the data by age and wCAV similar to the article above. The only differences is that I used the age drafted instead of a cutoff date and then took it a step further by also separated them by each individual age, year and round.

As you can see below, age does matter as evidence by the average weighted AV.  The avg weighted AV at 20 in all rounds combined is 25.5 (although a smaller sample size) and the averages drop with each age.

  • Age 20: 25.5
  • Age 21: 21.4
  • Age 22: 15.8
  • Age 23: 12.9
  • Age 24: 11.0
  • Age 25: 5.4
  • Age 26: 8.4
  • Age 27+: 6.3
Xxxaj4t.png
 
 

If we're taking this at face value and using it as any prediction baseline for the Bears draftees then their careers will look like this.


Kyler Gorden:  22 (21.9 rounded up)
Similar wAV comps: 1.10 Eli Apple,  3.84 Kendall Fuller,  1.31 Bradley Roby,  6.173 Byron Maxwell,  2.41: Lamarcus Joyner

Jaquan Brisker:  26 (25.5)
Similar wAV comps:  2.33 Johnathan Cyprien,  5.147 Ricardo Allen,  3.91 Duron Harmon,  3.84 Shawn Williams,  1.6 Morris Claiborne

Velus Jones Jr:  2
Similar wAV comps:  1.7 Kevin White, 2.37 Devin Smith,  3.70 Jaelen Strong,  3.85 Braxton Miller, 3.83 Jerrel Jernigan

Braxton Jones/Dominique Robinson:  9
Similar wAV comps:  1.23 Danny Watkins,  2.52 Jake Fisher,  2.48 Jason Spriggs,  5.159 Jermaine Eluemunor,  5.155 Scott Quessenberry

Zachary Thomas:  6
Trestan Ebner:  7
Doug Kramer:  6
J’atyre Carter:  4
Elijah Hicks:  7
Trenton Gill: HOF (???)

Can you expand on these acronyms?

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1 hour ago, chisoxguy7 said:

Can you expand on these acronyms?

  • "Rnd" is short for round drafted
  • "Count" is the number of players drafted in each round for each age group
  • "Total" is the total number of players drafted and the total combined average wCAV, regardless of round.
  • "wCav" or "wAV" is short for Weighted Career Approximate Value.

Career Approximate Value (CAV or AV) is a methodology put together by PFR (pro-football-reference) to put a value on a single player's performance in a given season.

AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can't be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. But I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV."

"Essentially, AV is a substitute for --- and a significant improvement upon, in my opinion --- metrics like 'number of seasons as a starter' or 'number of times making the pro bowl' or the like. You should think of it as being essentially like those two metrics, but with interpolation in between. That is, 'number of seasons as a starter' is a reasonable starting point if you're trying to measure, say, how good a particular draft class is, or what kind of player you can expect to get with the #13 pick in the draft. But obviously some starters are better than others. Starters on good teams are, as a group, better than starters on bad teams. Starting WRs who had lots of receiving yards are, as a group, better than starting WRs who did not have many receiving yards. Starters who made the pro bowl are, as a group, better than starters who didn't, and so on. And non-starters aren't worthless, so they get some points too.

Weighted Career Approximate Value is an expansion of CAV

At the top of every player's PFR page, you will see "Weighted Career AV" and a ranking since 1950. This is Doug's way of balancing peak production against raw career totals; for each player, he computes the following weighted sum of seasonal AV scores:

100% of the player's best season, plus 95% of his 2nd-best season, plus 90% of his 3rd-best season, plus 85% of his 4th-best season, ....

And so on.

You can read a more detailed explanation of this metric here. (Note: "Weighted Career AV" should not be confused with "career AV", which is just the unweighted sum of a player's AV scores.)

Edited by JAF-N72EX
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2 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:
  • "Rnd" is short for round drafted
  • "Count" is the number of players drafted in each round for each age group
  • "Total" is the total number of players drafted and the total combined average wCAV, regardless of round.
  • "wCav" or "wAV" is short for Weighted Career Approximate Value.

Career Approximate Value (CAV or AV) is a methodology put together by PFR (pro-football-reference) to put a value on a single player's performance in a given season.

AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can't be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. But I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV."

"Essentially, AV is a substitute for --- and a significant improvement upon, in my opinion --- metrics like 'number of seasons as a starter' or 'number of times making the pro bowl' or the like. You should think of it as being essentially like those two metrics, but with interpolation in between. That is, 'number of seasons as a starter' is a reasonable starting point if you're trying to measure, say, how good a particular draft class is, or what kind of player you can expect to get with the #13 pick in the draft. But obviously some starters are better than others. Starters on good teams are, as a group, better than starters on bad teams. Starting WRs who had lots of receiving yards are, as a group, better than starting WRs who did not have many receiving yards. Starters who made the pro bowl are, as a group, better than starters who didn't, and so on. And non-starters aren't worthless, so they get some points too.

Weighted Career Approximate Value is an expansion of CAV

At the top of every player's PFR page, you will see "Weighted Career AV" and a ranking since 1950. This is Doug's way of balancing peak production against raw career totals; for each player, he computes the following weighted sum of seasonal AV scores:

100% of the player's best season, plus 95% of his 2nd-best season, plus 90% of his 3rd-best season, plus 85% of his 4th-best season, ....

And so on.

You can read a more detailed explanation of this metric here. (Note: "Weighted Career AV" should not be confused with "career AV", which is just the unweighted sum of a player's AV scores.)

Sounds kind of similar to baseball’s WAR (wins above replacement). Thanks for the info.

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13 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

I took a look at all drafts from 2011-2019 and compiled the data by age and wCAV similar to the article above. The only differences is that I used the age drafted instead of a cutoff date and then took it a step further by also separated them by each individual age, year and round.

As you can see below, age does matter as evidence by the average weighted AV.  The avg weighted AV at 20 in all rounds combined is 25.5 (although a smaller sample size) and the averages drop with each age.

  • Age 20: 25.5
  • Age 21: 21.4
  • Age 22: 15.8
  • Age 23: 12.9
  • Age 24: 11.0
  • Age 25: 5.4
  • Age 26: 8.4
  • Age 27+: 6.3
Xxxaj4t.png
 
 

If we're taking this at face value and using it as any prediction baseline for the Bears draftees then their careers will look like this.


Kyler Gorden:  22 (21.9 rounded up)
Similar wAV comps: 1.10 Eli Apple,  3.84 Kendall Fuller,  1.31 Bradley Roby,  6.173 Byron Maxwell,  2.41: Lamarcus Joyner

Jaquan Brisker:  26 (25.5)
Similar wAV comps:  2.33 Johnathan Cyprien,  5.147 Ricardo Allen,  3.91 Duron Harmon,  3.84 Shawn Williams,  1.6 Morris Claiborne

Velus Jones Jr:  2
Similar wAV comps:  1.7 Kevin White, 2.37 Devin Smith,  3.70 Jaelen Strong,  3.85 Braxton Miller, 3.83 Jerrel Jernigan

Braxton Jones/Dominique Robinson:  9
Similar wAV comps:  1.23 Danny Watkins,  2.52 Jake Fisher,  2.48 Jason Spriggs,  5.159 Jermaine Eluemunor,  5.155 Scott Quessenberry

Zachary Thomas:  6
Trestan Ebner:  7
Doug Kramer:  6
J’atyre Carter:  4
Elijah Hicks:  7
Trenton Gill: HOF (???)

So the Bears are... f***ed... so to speak?

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Because most people graduate HS at around 18 and college at 21-23. 

The data outside those numbers is small in comparison and smaller sample the more your conclusions are likely to be wrong. 

If you feel confident enough to enter draft at 20 you probably have some big plus traits and if you weren’t good enough by 23 there are probably issues too.   

Obviously there is an advantage to playing against teenagers when you are 25.   Just like those kids in HS who are 19+ have an even larger advantage playing 16 year olds.  You have to factor all that in of course.  

I think over extrapolating from age numbers is a mistake though.   You aren’t guaranteed a stud with huge upside drafting a 20 year old or a dud maxed out drafting a 25 year old.  

Still look at each case individually.

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28 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Because most people graduate HS at around 18 and college at 21-23. 

The data outside those numbers is small in comparison and smaller sample the more your conclusions are likely to be wrong. 

If you feel confident enough to enter draft at 20 you probably have some big plus traits and if you weren’t good enough by 23 there are probably issues too.   

Obviously there is an advantage to playing against teenagers when you are 25.   Just like those kids in HS who are 19+ have an even larger advantage playing 16 year olds.  You have to factor all that in of course.  

I think over extrapolating from age numbers is a mistake though.   You aren’t guaranteed a stud with huge upside drafting a 20 year old or a dud maxed out drafting a 25 year old.  

Still look at each case individually.

Indeed, there are definitely reasons why a guy might not go into the draft until later on. Hayden Hurst and Brandon Weeden stick out in my head as two guys who come to mind right away. Both were first round picks, Hurst by the Ravens who many in this board reference as “always drafting well”.

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2 minutes ago, chisoxguy7 said:

Indeed, there are definitely reasons why a guy might not go into the draft until later on. Hayden Hurst and Brandon Weeden stick out in my head as two guys who come to mind right away. Both were first round picks, Hurst by the Ravens who many in this board reference as “always drafting well”.

I think drafting well is relative.  You are still going to fail a lot.  There are only so many good players in any draft.  

Ravens do well, but they aren’t perfect.  They tend to over draft TE or Ozzie did.

Their current experiment with playing a primary running QB and actually building around that is definitely interesting.   They have had regular season success with it.  

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5 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

So the Bears are... f***ed... so to speak?

Not necessarily, no. But I do think it reinforces some concerns about Jones' age though. Even my own. I hated the pick but the age didn't bother me too much. But the data here is pretty hard to ignore.

If you look at all 19 players who were 25 years old when drafted from 2011-2019, it doesn't exactly scream confidence. Especially at WR. T Bolles has had the best career out of all of them, and lets be honest Munchek is a large reason for his turn around. He struggled big time out the gate until the Munchek light came on and now it's night and day.

There's a reason why nearly half of them (9) were not selected until the 7th round.

1 20 Garett Bolles T 25
5 145 Matt Gay K 25
1 25 Hayden Hurst TE 25
7 235 Jimmy Wilson DB 25
7 223 Deon Simon NT 25
5 174 Cameron Artis-Payne RB 25
4 111 Clyde Gates WR 25
4 116 Keith McGill DB 25
7 236 Mark Nzeocha OLB 25
6 197 Demetri Goodson DB 25
3 70 Bronson Kaufusi DE 25
7 231 Ty Powell DE 25
7 249 DeMarco Sampson WR 25
7 227 Kiero Small RB 25
5 181 Dylan Donahue DL 25
7 236 John Ursua WR 25
7 221 Brad Sorensen QB 25
7 243 Kaleb Ramsey DE 25
4 108 Jalston Fowler FB 25

 

 

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5 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Because most people graduate HS at around 18 and college at 21-23. 

The data outside those numbers is small in comparison and smaller sample the more your conclusions are likely to be wrong. 

Even if you look at the two age groups with the largest sample sizes and nearly the same amount of players (22 and 23) you can still see a noticeable drop off from 15.8 to 12.9. 

5 hours ago, dll2000 said:

You aren’t guaranteed a stud with huge upside drafting a 20 year old or a dud maxed out drafting a 25 year old.  

You have a much better chance with a 20 year old than 25 though. At 20 there is still upside. At 25, not so much.

 

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Solid B.

This roster is getting overhauled, and I am of the opinion we landed two quality defensive starters with our first two picks. I think our secondary is now a strength, which honestly was a weakness 1 week ago.

I think Velus Jones should help out as a returner, at minimum, and depending upon how quickly he picks up the offense I think he could be a valuable chess piece.

Offensive line... lot of dudes; if we find a starting RG and swing tackle that could compete for and even take the starting LT/RT position then I'm thrilled.

Running back... I think Ebner is going to get some burn early, dude can run routes like a WR, has legit 4.4 speed and the long-speed to take it to the house.

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25 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Even if you look at the two age groups with the largest sample sizes and nearly the same amount of players (22 and 23) you can still see a noticeable drop off from 15.8 to 12.9. 

You have a much better chance with a 20 year old than 25 though. At 20 there is still upside. At 25, not so much.

 

I would agree odds for upside for a 20 year old drafted is way higher than a 25 year old drafted generally speaking.   

It is common sense that if you are good enough to be drafted at 20 you are probably a better player with higher upside than one who had to wait until 25.   Most people want to start their pro careers as soon as feasible.    

I am saying a guy like Velus specifically can contribute during his rookie deal.  

It does take away the lottery like aspect of draft picks though. 

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On 5/2/2022 at 3:21 AM, brownie man said:

In regards to the thread I made. No I don’t believe I was trolling. I’m an Ohio State alum and Justin is the most talented QB to ever come out our program. 
 

I told you guys I would be here as soon as he was drafted. And based on the lack of assets devoted to the position your FO is setting him up for failure. And this is past a draft grade. You all didn’t do anything in Free Agency either. 

Darnell Mooney is a stud. Bears fans, and the Chicago media (to some extent), may like to pretend that isn't case...but they're wrong.

Velus Jones led the nation in YAC. 

The offensive line will be much better.

Don't buy into the current hysteria. 

On 5/3/2022 at 8:44 AM, Sugashane said:

Yeah if he stays healthy and blows up Poles blew it. All those 6ths and 7ths and not even a flier? Im all for being aggressive for major talents with late picks. 

Even with major medical red flags I'd take that chance. 

Nope. 

Poles will sign a guy. It's cool. 

On 5/3/2022 at 12:39 PM, Bigbear72 said:

I get the fact that you are trying to make a point to JAF but...

I never really get the need to insult someone while debating. Is the goal to prove a point or to just piss someone off? If it is to prove a point I would say that the point would be lost and the focus becomes the insult.

This comes from the top down. Webby needs to do his job, and he's shown in the past he's reluctant to do so. Which is ridiculous. 

That then flows to the mods here, who follow @Webmaster's example...and don't do a lot. They should be far more proactive. 

The goal of a forum is for everybody to be at least somewhat civil, and have a good time debating things. We have a lot of people in charge of this forum who don't seem to give a **** about that sort of thing. 

On 5/4/2022 at 1:51 PM, dll2000 said:

Goldfish gave us 25th best draft.

Which is ridiculous. I had safety as one of our top concerns, and always thought it should be one of our first three selections. 

He doesn't know the team, pay it no mind.

I'd give the draft a B, I think. Still wanted Poles to get into the fourth...but understand his pivot to spam lower round picks. I totally acknowledge his strategy may work. 

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