LOOKING AHEAD AT THE 2022 SEASON AND THE 2023 DRAFT

[Karnage84]

The 2022 draft has come and gone. Since we're so far away from real football, we'll need to look beyond 2022 and into the 2023 draft (gotta keep feeding the addiction). 

Looking ahead at the 2022 season 

• WSH - W
• CHI - W
• DAL - L
• CHI - W
• GB - W
• MIN - W
• PHI - L 
• BUF - L
• MIA - L
• GB - L
• MIN - L
• NE - L
• NYG - W
• NYJ - L
• CAR - W
• JAC - W
• SEA - L

This would realistically leave us at 8-9. This assumes:

• Division: Split with GB and MIN, sweep CHI
• Split Games: 3 (Giants, Panthers, Jags); 4 (Dolphins, Pats, Jets, Seahawks)

In the 2022 draft, the following picks had the following records (original team):

• 11) WSH 7-10
• 12) MIN 8-9
• 13 ) CLE 8-9
• 14) BAL 8-9
• 15)MIA 9-8

If we sit at pick #14 (1100) and have pick #28 (660) from the Rams (could be higher or lower), we're looking at a total of 1760 points. 

Pick #3 overall is 2200 points. If we add on a QB premium (especially after such a poor 2022 class) of 20%, we're looking at 2,640 points. 

Using our 2023 1st's, we have a net discrepancy of 880 points (valued around pick #18). 

If the Lions did want to move up and draft their QBOTF, we'd be looking at (using these assumptions)

• 2023 1st, #14 Overall
• 2023 1st, #28 Overall
• 2024 1st

This trade would allow us to net either Bryce Young or CJ Stroud at #3 overall with Will Anderson and Jalen Carter also being in the mix. 

[Karnage84]

The key reason that I'm digging into this is that every single mock simulator available now has the Lions picking in the top 6. Some have us around pick 2 or 3. Fanspeak has us picking at pick #6. I don't see it after having two solid back-to-back drafts and how close this team was to winning 6-8 games last year with all of the injuries, lack of WR depth, holes on defense, etc. 

[Superduperman]

I can see the possibility of them winning 5 games or thereabouts. It's also possible that key guys will improve and they will be better, but:
- Goff may not prove to be better than a check down machine and not able to produce big plays
- Even if they don't suffer many injuries, the depth on defense is still questionable and even a lot of starters still aren't dependable top-level players
- Chark, Reynolds, and Jameson, for various reasons, might not pan out as reliable weapons for this season
- I can't at this point count on their ability to stop either the run or the pass at a winning level. There are things to hope for in those regards but hope doesn't win games

Anyway, I'll be optimistic that things will come together more than that but I am optimistic every year. It's pretty realistic to assume the Lions will have a pick in the lower part of the top 10 in 2023.

[diehardlionfan]

I think next years draft there will be a HUGE premium for top picks.

Lots of teams looking at QB so likely somewhat of a bidding war. It’s not beyond belief to see QB’s come off the board 1 and 2. 

Depending which QB they like a move may not be required. I really want to see what Levis does this year.

Edited May 10, 2022 by diehardlionfan
Additional comment

[diehardlionfan]

On 5/2/2022 at 11:28 AM, Karnage84 said:

The key reason that I'm digging into this is that every single mock simulator available now has the Lions picking in the top 6. Some have us around pick 2 or 3. Fanspeak has us picking at pick #6. I don't see it after having two solid back-to-back drafts and how close this team was to winning 6-8 games last year with all of the injuries, lack of WR depth, holes on defense, etc. 

There will be injuries next year. We still have holes on defence. Perhaps not as many but there are still holes.

Theres also questions about the theoretical number 1 corner, the LB group, and the WR’s. Both Williams and Chark are coming off injury, are new to the Lions so their anticipated impact may be later than anticipated. Will there be more organic growth in the secondary?

Still lots of questions. Hopefully the answers are positive.

I see them as a six or seven win team. 

[Superduperman]

The most positive thing I see for next year's draft at this point is, the qb's might push Will Anderson down a little and you might get him at pick 4 or 5. I consider him the #1 talent in 2023 by a mile. He's got Lawrence Taylor type potential in my opinion 

[Sllim Pickens]

11 hours ago, Superduperman said:

The most positive thing I see for next year's draft at this point is, the qb's might push Will Anderson down a little and you might get him at pick 4 or 5. I consider him the #1 talent in 2023 by a mile. He's got Lawrence Taylor type potential in my opinion 

I agree and hope to not be picking in a spot where we have a chance at him as it would mean the year was a failure and doubts on our staff and GM would be creeping in.  

[Superduperman]

I'd trade up for him. I think he's a surefire star.

[Just Want A Title]

I don't know where in the draft that they get it but they need to add more talent at LB and continue to add WR talent.  A big wrecking-ball DT would be a welcome addition also.

[Karnage84]

On 5/8/2022 at 9:04 AM, Superduperman said:

I'd trade up for him. I think he's a surefire star.

Where do you play him if they just drafted Hutchinson to be the "rush" guy and Paschal to play 5T? If we're sitting there at 6, the QB's are off the board and he's BPA by far... you draft him and find a way to get him involved. If you're going to trade up then you would do that with a plan, especially since you'd have to give up extra draft capital, we have other team needs, etc. 

[Superduperman]

Hutchinson isn't a speed rusher and Paschal will play more inside... also Anderson can play off-ball and cover. A lot of different roles you could move him around between. But anyway, aside from Hutch, I wouldn't worry about what anyone else on the defense does. Everyone else can just move on down the depth chart.

[Sllim Pickens]

16 minutes ago, Superduperman said:

Hutchinson isn't a speed rusher and Paschal will play more inside... also Anderson can play off-ball and cover. A lot of different roles you could move him around between. But anyway, aside from Hutch, I wouldn't worry about what anyone else on the defense does. Everyone else can just move on down the depth chart.

I think if we were able to draft Anderson to add to Hutch, I would go back to more 3-4 looks and have both playing OLB.  Both are good enough to play run and pass but both also can rush the passer.  Then have a line of Paschal, McNeil, Onwuzurike/Rookie DT. 

Also, i think we can see how we use Harris/Okwara this year along with Hutch to see what type of roles Anderson could have in our D.   

[Karnage84]

9 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think if we were able to draft Anderson to add to Hutch, I would go back to more 3-4 looks and have both playing OLB.  Both are good enough to play run and pass but both also can rush the passer.  Then have a line of Paschal, McNeil, Onwuzurike/Rookie DT. 

Also, i think we can see how we use Harris/Okwara this year along with Hutch to see what type of roles Anderson could have in our D.   

I feel like if we are in that situation (top 8 with the top QB's already off the board), we'd take a slight trade down and grab QB3 in the class or stand pat and take "our guy
. If it's a better class, someone will move up the board and be a strong #3 option. There's a big difference in taking Justin Herbert over Jordan Love/Jalen Hurts. 

[Sllim Pickens]

4 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I feel like if we are in that situation (top 8 with the top QB's already off the board), we'd take a slight trade down and grab QB3 in the class or stand pat and take "our guy
. If it's a better class, someone will move up the board and be a strong #3 option. There's a big difference in taking Justin Herbert over Jordan Love/Jalen Hurts. 

True, I guess I meant in more of a trade up scenario.  If we have a solid year I would probably be ok moving up for Anderson.  I also really like Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  If we do pick high, it likely means we need to go QB and it also means that our staff likely isn't doing their job so I am a little nervous on how this year plays out.  Picking high was understandable with the lack of talent and injuries.  We have added some solid pieces and should be getting more back from IR (Okudah, Ragnow, Okwara) which should make us competitive if our coaches are legit. 

[Karnage84]

3 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

True, I guess I meant in more of a trade up scenario.  If we have a solid year I would probably be ok moving up for Anderson.  I also really like Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  If we do pick high, it likely means we need to go QB and it also means that our staff likely isn't doing their job so I am a little nervous on how this year plays out.  Picking high was understandable with the lack of talent and injuries.  We have added some solid pieces and should be getting more back from IR (Okudah, Ragnow, Okwara) which should make us competitive if our coaches are legit. 

If Goff goes down early to an injury, pretty good chance that we'll wind up in the top 8 even with all of the other upgrades at other positions/guys coming back from injury. 

However, I wouldn't be opposed to trading up to grab him if Goff plays really well, we're sitting at pick 16-20+ and [Anderson] slips.