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LOOKING AHEAD AT THE 2022 SEASON AND THE 2023 DRAFT


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I just don't really see any scenario where we aren't going after a QB next year. Even if Goff improves on what he did last season, he would have to take massive strides compared to what he has done over the rest of his career to convince me (and I imagine the front office/coaching staff) that he's "the guy" long term. Next year is their best shot to take a QB with the extra draft capital - not to mention that the pressure to win is only going to increase year after year. It seems like we're committed to Holmes/Quinn long-term but you don't typically see guys get more than two or three years of losing football before the pressure gets really cranked up. 

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I put together a bit of a worksheet on the QB's for 2023 to see if anything sticks out. Emphasis is on production and things that should translate. I have 20 guys on the list right now with 52 altogether. 

Guys that are above average in three key categories (Completion %, Avg Depth of Completion, and TD:INT)

  • CJ Stroud, Ohio State - 71.9%; 10.1; 7.3; no rushing yards or TD's in 2021
  • Bryce Young, Alabama - 66.9%; 8.9; 6.; no rushing yards or TD's in 2021
  • Hendon Hooker, Tennessee - 68.2%; 9.8; 10.3 (Grad transfer, will be 25 (and nearly 26) by 2023 week 1; rushed for 620 yards and 5 TD's in 2021
  • Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina - 73.05; 11.9; 9.0 (will be 22); rushed for 290 yards and 4 TD's in 2021
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1 hour ago, Lions017 said:

I just don't really see any scenario where we aren't going after a QB next year. Even if Goff improves on what he did last season, he would have to take massive strides compared to what he has done over the rest of his career to convince me (and I imagine the front office/coaching staff) that he's "the guy" long term. Next year is their best shot to take a QB with the extra draft capital - not to mention that the pressure to win is only going to increase year after year. It seems like we're committed to Holmes/Quinn long-term but you don't typically see guys get more than two or three years of losing football before the pressure gets really cranked up. 

He led a team to a super bowl.  If he took us to the playoffs this year and won a game, he would do something that only one other Detroit team did.  In that scenario, i am not sure I would be worried about a QB next year.  Even if we just made the playoffs.  If we are a fringe playoff team and he isn't the reason we lost (bad defense, crazy injuries etc) then again, I wouldnt be forcing QB.  I am not sold on Goff being the long term answer, and we will likely be looking at a QB next year, but I know that Goff has accomplished more than any Lions QB in history so I have to give him some benefit of the doubt given how he finished last year. 

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58 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I put together a bit of a worksheet on the QB's for 2023 to see if anything sticks out. Emphasis is on production and things that should translate. I have 20 guys on the list right now with 52 altogether. 

Guys that are above average in three key categories (Completion %, Avg Depth of Completion, and TD:INT)

  • CJ Stroud, Ohio State - 71.9%; 10.1; 7.3; no rushing yards or TD's in 2021
  • Bryce Young, Alabama - 66.9%; 8.9; 6.; no rushing yards or TD's in 2021
  • Hendon Hooker, Tennessee - 68.2%; 9.8; 10.3 (Grad transfer, will be 25 (and nearly 26) by 2023 week 1; rushed for 620 yards and 5 TD's in 2021
  • Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina - 73.05; 11.9; 9.0 (will be 22); rushed for 290 yards and 4 TD's in 2021

In any given year, we typically see around 10 QB's get drafted. The most ever drafted in recent history was 20 in 1992 (17 in 2004). We've seen 5 QB's go in round 1 in 1999, 2018 and 2021. We're probably going to see about half of the QB's drafted go in round 1. If the Lions are going to meet the expectations that we (should) have for them, we're likely going to be looking at QB's 3-5. 

FanSpeak's early rankings are:

  1. 1.1 CJ Stroud
  2. 1.2 Bryce Young
  3. 1.13 Phil Jurkovec
  4. 1.27 Tyler Van Dyke
  5. 1.29 Will Levis
  6. 2.40 Jake Haener

ProFootballNetwork

  1. 1.1 CJ Stroud
  2. 1.2 Bryce Young
  3. 1.25 Spencer Rattler
  4. 1.29 Anthony Richardson
  5. 2.34 Jaren Hall
  6. 2.47 Jake Haener

WalterFootball

  1. 1.1 CJ Stroud
  2. 1.2 Bryce Young
  3. 1.5 Anthony Richardson
  4. 1.13 Will Levis
  5. 2.52 Jayden Daniels
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One guy we really should be looking at as a future 1st rounder is KJ Jefferson. Assuming he can keep his production up without Treylon Burks, he has a lot to offer. He has early Cam Newton comparisons at 6'3, 245 lbs. 

67.3% completion rate, 9.1 Average depth, 5.3 TD:INT ratio (21 to 4) > checks off all three key categories. Add in 660 rushing yards and 6 TD's. 

Accounted for 3,340 all purpose yards and 27 TD's. 

They went 9-4 in the SEC and beat Penn State in the Outback Bowl. Jefferson was the MVP in that game. 

In a class that has an outstanding #1 and #2, there are some question marks about who is QB3 and beyond. Jefferson has some potential to become that guy.

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It will be interesting next year for sure. I’m curious as I’m sure everyone else is, to see how they manage the QB position.

I wouldn’t rule out the Lions sticking with Goff beyond next year. It will all depend on his performance.

The offence looks really good. Hopefully the line can stay healthy.

 

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2 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

It will be interesting next year for sure. I’m curious as I’m sure everyone else is, to see how they manage the QB position.

I wouldn’t rule out the Lions sticking with Goff beyond next year. It will all depend on his performance.

The offence looks really good. Hopefully the line can stay healthy.

 

This regime has been remarkably transparent. They've stated they are willing to run with Goff if he performs well. I don't see reason to doubt them when they've been so open. 

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19 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

In any given year, we typically see around 10 QB's get drafted. The most ever drafted in recent history was 20 in 1992 (17 in 2004). We've seen 5 QB's go in round 1 in 1999, 2018 and 2021. We're probably going to see about half of the QB's drafted go in round 1. If the Lions are going to meet the expectations that we (should) have for them, we're likely going to be looking at QB's 3-5. 

FanSpeak's early rankings are:

  1. 1.1 CJ Stroud
  2. 1.2 Bryce Young
  3. 1.13 Phil Jurkovec
  4. 1.27 Tyler Van Dyke
  5. 1.29 Will Levis
  6. 2.40 Jake Haener

ProFootballNetwork

  1. 1.1 CJ Stroud
  2. 1.2 Bryce Young
  3. 1.25 Spencer Rattler
  4. 1.29 Anthony Richardson
  5. 2.34 Jaren Hall
  6. 2.47 Jake Haener

WalterFootball

  1. 1.1 CJ Stroud
  2. 1.2 Bryce Young
  3. 1.5 Anthony Richardson
  4. 1.13 Will Levis
  5. 2.52 Jayden Daniels

Last year at this time we were talking about how good the 2022 class would be with Spencer Rattler, Willis, Corral, Howell, and Slovis.  Two of those guys transferred after bad years and being replaced by Caleb Williams.  The others all showed weaknesses that caused their hype to die down. So although this class looks good next year, a lot can and will change. 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-2022-quarterbacks-sam-howell-spencer-rattler/sc4whw5b2o1r14yqbcdbajdiw

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1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Last year at this time we were talking about how good the 2022 class would be with Spencer Rattler, Willis, Corral, Howell, and Slovis.  Two of those guys transferred after bad years and being replaced by Caleb Williams.  The others all showed weaknesses that caused their hype to die down. So although this class looks good next year, a lot can and will change. 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-2022-quarterbacks-sam-howell-spencer-rattler/sc4whw5b2o1r14yqbcdbajdiw

That is very true. I'm actually a bit concerned about the 2023 class outside of Stroud and Young. There are always guys that could rise up like Herbert or Burrow but there is no guarantee that any of these guys will hit either. We've already seen what can happen to a "Generational Talent" (Lawrence) when they wind up in a bad position.

As Lions fans, what is it that we want to see our QB do? How do we win the NFC North? 

- Do we want a dual threat?

- Do we want a pocket passer?

- Do we want a big arm, downfield thrower?

- Do we want an accurate passer focused more on a quick release and getting the ball out on crossing routes, short to intermediate passing, etc. 

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27 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

That is very true. I'm actually a bit concerned about the 2023 class outside of Stroud and Young. There are always guys that could rise up like Herbert or Burrow but there is no guarantee that any of these guys will hit either. We've already seen what can happen to a "Generational Talent" (Lawrence) when they wind up in a bad position.

As Lions fans, what is it that we want to see our QB do? How do we win the NFC North? 

- Do we want a dual threat?

- Do we want a pocket passer?

- Do we want a big arm, downfield thrower?

- Do we want an accurate passer focused more on a quick release and getting the ball out on crossing routes, short to intermediate passing, etc. 

All of the above? 

I want a QB that can lead and win games.  I think we all would love a Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers but those guys are few and far between.  I don't think there is one type of QB we need, we just need someone who plays within themselves, handles pressure, and has confidence.  

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2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

That is very true. I'm actually a bit concerned about the 2023 class outside of Stroud and Young. There are always guys that could rise up like Herbert or Burrow but there is no guarantee that any of these guys will hit either. We've already seen what can happen to a "Generational Talent" (Lawrence) when they wind up in a bad position.

As Lions fans, what is it that we want to see our QB do? How do we win the NFC North? 

- Do we want a dual threat?

- Do we want a pocket passer?

- Do we want a big arm, downfield thrower?

- Do we want an accurate passer focused more on a quick release and getting the ball out on crossing routes, short to intermediate passing, etc. 

am I wrong for saying I want someone who can win? I really don’t care about arm strength, foot speed, size of hands or hair style. Can you drive the ball down field and keep the team from being one dimensional? Whatever that looks like, I want it. If I remember right, we won a playoff game and the division with Eric Kramer. If we get that next year (2022) I’m good. It’s good to have a Patrick Mahomes and his one Super Bowl win. But it’s cheaper to have Trent Dilfer and his super bowl win.

just win.

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1 minute ago, LionArkie said:

am I wrong for saying I want someone who can win? I really don’t care about arm strength, foot speed, size of hands or hair style. Can you drive the ball down field and keep the team from being one dimensional? Whatever that looks like, I want it. If I remember right, we won a playoff game and the division with Eric Kramer. If we get that next year (2022) I’m good. It’s good to have a Patrick Mahomes and his one Super Bowl win. But it’s cheaper to have Trent Dilfer and his super bowl win.

just win.

You have to build your team to win your division. It's a good way to start things. If we're cool with Trent Dilfer then we should just stick with Goff and continue to build out the rest of the roster. However, we've been dismissing him as a viable option (for some good reasons, some not so good reasons) for at least the next few years. 

We're playing:

- Dome (Indoor): 8-9 home games + 1 at Minnesota

- Outdoor: 2 games > Chicago and Green Bay

2023 Away (Non-Divisional)

  • Outdoor - KC, LAC, TB, NFCE, AFCN
  • Indoor - NO

2024 Away (Non-Divisional)

  • Outdoor - SF, NFCE
  • Indoor - HOU, IND, ARI

2025 Away (Non-Divisional)

  • Outdoor - WSH, BAL, CIN, PHI
  • TBD - NFCW

In a given year, we should be looking at about 11-12 games indoors between home games (5-6 outdoor games), playing at Minnesota and playing non-divisional games. 

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19 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

You have to build your team to win your division. It's a good way to start things. If we're cool with Trent Dilfer then we should just stick with Goff and continue to build out the rest of the roster. However, we've been dismissing him as a viable option (for some good reasons, some not so good reasons) for at least the next few years.

Yep, I'm fine with Goff...for now. I don't want to sell the farm to get a talented prospect. I'd rather build a better farm with more talented prospects.

Good line play and defense always keeps you in the hunt.

Good QB play covers up a multitude of issues.

Good OL covers up a multitude of issues.

Good DL covers up a multitude of issues.

Good Defense covers up a multitude of issues.

I'll take 3 out of any 4 of these and run with it.

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17 hours ago, Nnivolcm said:

This regime has been remarkably transparent. They've stated they are willing to run with Goff if he performs well. I don't see reason to doubt them when they've been so open. 

You’re absolutely correct.

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