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LOOKING AHEAD AT THE 2022 SEASON AND THE 2023 DRAFT


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5 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

That is very true. I'm actually a bit concerned about the 2023 class outside of Stroud and Young. There are always guys that could rise up like Herbert or Burrow but there is no guarantee that any of these guys will hit either. We've already seen what can happen to a "Generational Talent" (Lawrence) when they wind up in a bad position.

As Lions fans, what is it that we want to see our QB do? How do we win the NFC North? 

- Do we want a dual threat?

- Do we want a pocket passer?

- Do we want a big arm, downfield thrower?

- Do we want an accurate passer focused more on a quick release and getting the ball out on crossing routes, short to intermediate passing, etc. 

I want a QB that knows how to deliver a football downfield. Running ability is great but doesn’t matter much if you can’t throw the ball.

Accuracy matters regardless of route. Ideally, a big armed pocket passer with situational awareness.

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Posted (edited)

This is a comparison of KJ Jefferson and Will Levis against SEC opponents in 2021. Who knows what 2022 will hold but it's an interesting comparison of two guys playing in the same conference who are in the 2023 draft chatter. Levis has been in the QB3/QB4 discussions. Jefferson is getting some darkhorse Heisman buzz.

  PASS                     RUSH       TOTAL YARDS TD
  ATT CMP CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG SCK RTG QBR ATT YDS AVG TD    
KJ Jeffreson 24 17 68.3% 219 9.2 1.63 0.13 46.5 2.5 166.0 76.6 12 43 3.8 0.38 262 2.00
Will Levis 27 18 63.9% 176 6.7 1.63 1.00 31.9 1.5 133.8 69.2 8 31 3.9 0.63 207 2.25
Edited by Karnage84
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Just now, Karnage84 said:

This is a comparison of KJ Jefferson and Will Levis against SEC opponents in 2021. Who knows what 2022 will hold but it's an interesting comparison of two guys playing in the same conference who are in the 2023 draft chatter. Levis has been in the QB3/QB4 discussions. Jefferson is getting some darkhorse Heisman buzz.

  PASS                     RUSH       TOTAL YARDS TD
  ATT CMP CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG SCK RTG QBR ATT YDS AVG TD    
KJ Jeffreson 24 17 68.3% 219 9.2 1.63 0.13 46.5 2.5 166.0 76.6 12 43 3.8 0.38 262 2.00
Will Levis 27 18 63.9% 176 6.7 1.63 1.00 31.9 1.5 133.8 69.23 8 31 3.9 0.63 207 2.25

Jefferson was 4-4 against SEC opponents; Levis was 5-3; They had the same record against similar opponents (3-1 vs Miss St; LSU, Mizzou, Georgia); Arkansas had the 8th ranked SOS; Kentucky had 43rd ranked SOS. 

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I'm trying to look at efficiency metrics as opposed to full on yards, TD's, etc. since there will be guys who haven't had as much playing time, maybe played well until an injury occurred, etc. 

Some interesting nuggets to look at. 

TD:INT

  • Hendon Hooker - 10.3
  • Zach Gibson (Akron) - 10.0
  • Grayson McCall - 9.0
  • Dequan Finn (Toledo) - 9.0
  • CJ Stroud - 7.3
  • Bryce Young - 6.7

TDA (Touchdowns per Attempt) - Percentage of attempts that are TD's

  • Grayson McCall - 11.2%
  • Hendon Hooker - 10.3%
  • CJ Stroud - 10.0%
  • Anthony Richardson - 9.4%
  • Dillon Gabriel - 8.8%
  • Bryce Young - 8.6%
  • Tanner Mordecai (SMU) - 8.6%

INTA (Interceptions per Attempt) Percentage of attempts that are INT's

  • Zach Gibson (Akron) - 0.6%
  • Dequan Finn (Toledo) - 0.8%
  • Bo Nix - 0.9%
  • Hendon Hooker - 1.0%
  • Bryce Young - 1.3%
  • CJ Stroud 1.4%

 

  • Anthony Richardson - 7.8%
  • Michael Penix (Washington) - 4.3%
  • Phil Jurkovec - 4.2%
  • Graham Mertz - 3.9%
  • Will Levis - 3.7%
  • Tanner Morgan - 3.6%

 

NET (I don't know what to call it: TDA - INTA)

  • Grayson McCall - 10.0%
  • Hendon Hooker - 9.3%
  • CJ Stroud - 8.6%
  • Bryce Young - 7.3%
  • Devin Leary (NC St) - 7.0%

 

  • Michael Penix - -1.9%
  • Tommy Devito - -1.9%
  • Graham Mertz - -0.4%
  • DJ Uiagalelei - -0.3%
  • Jayden Daniels - 0.0%
  • Spencer Petras - 0.3%
  • Tanner Morgan - 0.4%

 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

Herndon Hooker looks very intriguing.

The play doesn't measure up to the stats. It's the same system that made Drew Lock look great. Some guys I haven't seen mentioned much yet are Brennan Armstrong from UVA, Devin Leary from N.C. State, and Sam Hartman from Wake Forest. The dark horses are Anthony Richardson, Spencer Rattler, and Malik Cunningham. Cameron Rising at Utah is another name to watch.

Richardson is an absolute freak of nature, but Mullen refused to start him until throwing him to the wolves against UGA (with a terrible game plan). It's hard to tell if Richardson has "it" mentally based on the limited film so far. But he's 6'4" 240 with 4.5 speed and a cannon for an arm. 

Rattler looked like he was well on his way to being a first round pick in 2020. He obviously didn't perform in 2021. Mobile, rifle for an arm, improvisational, and has great accuracy when he's on. Decision making can be iffy. Cunningham is still growing as a passer, but he's a superb athlete. Tua's younger brother (Taulia) has also flashed at Maryland, but he's a small dude with turnover problems.

Edited by jrry32
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and not even close when it comes to WR from this past draft to next year. At least next year there is a sure fire stud at WR but drop off after Addison is crazy. Still pumped for this season for college...shoot everything changes at combine so we have a long wait lol 

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11 hours ago, jrry32 said:

The play doesn't measure up to the stats. It's the same system that made Drew Lock look great. Some guys I haven't seen mentioned much yet are Brennan Armstrong from UVA, Devin Leary from N.C. State, and Sam Hartman from Wake Forest. The dark horses are Anthony Richardson, Spencer Rattler, and Malik Cunningham. Cameron Rising at Utah is another name to watch.

Richardson is an absolute freak of nature, but Mullen refused to start him until throwing him to the wolves against UGA (with a terrible game plan). It's hard to tell if Richardson has "it" mentally based on the limited film so far. But he's 6'4" 240 with 4.5 speed and a cannon for an arm. 

Rattler looked like he was well on his way to being a first round pick in 2020. He obviously didn't perform in 2021. Mobile, rifle for an arm, improvisational, and has great accuracy when he's on. Decision making can be iffy. Cunningham is still growing as a passer, but he's a superb athlete. Tua's younger brother (Taulia) has also flashed at Maryland, but he's a small dude with turnover problems.

I expect Rattler to rebound. Lincoln Riley can’t mess with his head anymore.

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On 5/15/2022 at 2:58 PM, diehardlionfan said:

I expect Rattler to rebound. Lincoln Riley can’t mess with his head anymore.

As an OU fan, Rattler's issue wasn't Riley.  He regressed.  Badly.  Over the same attempts as 2020, he would have had 19 TDs and 9 INTs.  He was completing passes, but he wasn't moving the ball down the field.  Go compare his Y/A from 2020 to 2021.  Oklahoma's offense was stagnant with Rattler under center.  Every QB since 2014 (Trevor Knight) had an AY/A of at least 10 until last year with Rattler.

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2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

As an OU fan, Rattler's issue wasn't Riley.  He regressed.  Badly.  Over the same attempts as 2020, he would have had 19 TDs and 9 INTs.  He was completing passes, but he wasn't moving the ball down the field.  Go compare his Y/A from 2020 to 2021.  Oklahoma's offense was stagnant with Rattler under center.  Every QB since 2014 (Trevor Knight) had an AY/A of at least 10 until last year with Rattler.

Yeah - I wasn't really on board with Riley being the only reason for Rattler's down fall (although it could play a part). Rattler seems to have all of the personality issues that Josh Rosen and Connor Cook have been pegged with. 

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3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

As an OU fan, Rattler's issue wasn't Riley.  He regressed.  Badly.  Over the same attempts as 2020, he would have had 19 TDs and 9 INTs.  He was completing passes, but he wasn't moving the ball down the field.  Go compare his Y/A from 2020 to 2021.  Oklahoma's offense was stagnant with Rattler under center.  Every QB since 2014 (Trevor Knight) had an AY/A of at least 10 until last year with Rattler.

Rattler did regress but Riley was certainly in his head. 

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1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

Yeah - I wasn't really on board with Riley being the only reason for Rattler's down fall (although it could play a part). Rattler seems to have all of the personality issues that Josh Rosen and Connor Cook have been pegged with. 

It’s never just one thing. 

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