Predict the AFC West in 2022

[CP3MVP]

5 hours ago, Soggust said:

MVS, sure.

But JuJu has 3 out of 5 years ended up with 800+ yards. One of the two years he didn't was when he played 5 games last year and the other sub 800-yard year was when Mason Rudolph was his QB.

There is no reason to believe he can't be a quality #2 at this point, especially when upgrading from a notoriously basic offensive mind in Tomlin to Andy Reid.

Yeah at best he’s a number 2 if everything goes right but more than likely he’s just a 3 on a great WR core right now. 
 

The argument is that a bunch of jags/unknowns  will replace Tyreek Hill. I wouldn’t harp on the hill point if everyone else in the division didn’t get much better. If they were stagnant I wouldn’t really bring this up. Like if the Broncos didn’t add a top 10 QB, the raiders didn’t add a top 3 WR, and the chargers didn’t bring in an All pro corner. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by CP3MVP

[CP3MVP]

3 hours ago, Soggust said:

He's a good player who got 169 targets?

When JuJu got 166 targets (from Ben), he put up 1400 and 7 lol.

Yeah a lifetime ago. In 2018 Tom Brady was still on the Patriots

Edited May 24, 2022 by CP3MVP

[Daniel]

A team that hasn’t been eliminated before the conference championship for the past three years isn’t overhyped. Full stop.

Maybe the Broncos or the Chargers can take the division, but objectively, KC ought to be the favorite.

[Soggust]

4 hours ago, CP3MVP said:

Yeah at best he’s a number 2 if everything goes right but more than likely he’s just a 3 on a great WR core right now. 
 

The argument is that a bunch of jags/unknowns  will replace Tyreek Hill. I wouldn’t harp on the hill point if everyone else in the division didn’t get much better. If they were stagnant I wouldn’t really bring this up. Like if the Broncos didn’t add a top 10 QB, the raiders didn’t add a top 3 WR, and the chargers didn’t bring in an All pro corner. 

Well, at best, he's at least 1400 and 7 right? Those are #1 numbers. But obviously we don't expect that.

I don't know how many teams are getting 800ish yards out of their WR3 during healthy seasons, and we can debate him as a WR2 vs WR3 but it's really irrelevant to your point, I think. Your point is that regardless of whatever we say he is - He ain't Tyreek - and I think that's fair. 

Some Chiefs fans might point to the fact that Mahomes has a 103.1 rating and 8:1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 347.5 YPG without Hill to suggest that the loss won't be as dramatic as you and I might think, but I actually do think it's different trying to manage 5 games without a weapon vs a full season of prepared teams, obviously, so I would take it a different direction.

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The Chiefs just won 12 games during the worst stretch of Mahomes career (arguably his worst year). Why can't he have a better year this year? Sure, losing Tyreek hurts, but its also certainly possible Mahomes regresses towards his career mean, especially as he seemed to get through his slump in the second half of the year.

Does the Broncos adding Russell Wilson (especially considering the season he is coming off of) account for 4-5 more wins? He's certainly good for a few more, in theory, but that's a big number. I do think this number is possible, but I also think it's about as probable as Mahomes playing better this year.

Does the Raiders adding Adams make the raiders 1-2 games better? If he's the Green Bay Adams, maybe? The Raiders offense sputtered down the stretch but I would argue their passing offense was not really their primary problem last year. I think they were like top 5 in yards or something? Again, I'm not saying he won't make them better, but a WR making your team a full game (or two!) better seems optimistic, especially if he ends up diminishing returns on Renfrow/Waller.

Finally, I don't see the Chargers adding JC Jackson making a 2-3 game difference, but the argument for the Chargers of course also involves Mack and them possibly playing to their potential, so whatever. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if they ended up being great and it wouldn't surprise me a bit to see them win 8-9 games again.

-----------------

But that's just the point. We ALL have question marks. And, of course, there are more pieces added than what we mentioned and we all got rookies who will solve all of our problems yadada. 

At the end of the day, we just don't know. The Chiefs could ABSOLUTELY miss the playoffs, but literally we could say that about every team in the division. So folks assuming every team in the AFCW gets better besides the Chiefs just seems presumptive at best, especially considering the Chiefs have owned this division since 2016.

But it's also a prediction thread and everyone saying the Chiefs would be boring so I get it.

Edited May 24, 2022 by Soggust

[Daniel]

I'd bet the house on one of the Chargers or the Broncos winning 8 or less.  Don't know which one, but one of them will fall flat.  Teams built to win now very rarely do.  Rams were the exception, but the rest of the league is treating them like they're the rule.

I'll believe the Chargers are elite when their QB proves he's elite consistently.  Flashes of that in 2021, but stretches of bad play too.

And Wilson hasn't put together an elite season in years.  Sure, the Seahawks never gave him an OL, but he very well just might no longer be the player he's used to.

As for the Raiders, well, they were good last season, but they also had four overtime wins to no losses, and only two losses by a single score to three wins (excluding the OT wins).  7-2 in close games usually signifies overperforming to me.  I don't know if Adams actually makes up for that, but they faced a lot of crap last season, so they may still be a borderline playoff team.

Chiefs are pretty much a sure thing to threaten.

[Bolts223]

2 hours ago, Daniel said:

  Teams built to win now very rarely do.  Rams were the exception, but the rest of the league is treating them like they're the rule.

 

2020 Bucs? 2015 Broncos? Guess it depends on what your definition of a "Win Now" team is.

I'd argue that the majority of Super Bowl winners were in some form of "Win now" mode during the season that they won. (Whether it be trying to win with an aging QB, trying to win while they still have a QB on a rookie deal, etc.)

Edited May 25, 2022 by Bolts223

[Bearerofnews]

29 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

2020 Bucs? 2015 Broncos? Guess it depends on what your definition of a "Win Now" team is.

I'd argue that the majority of Super Bowl winners were in some form of "Win now" mode during the season that they won. (Whether it be trying to win with an aging QB, trying to win while they still have a QB on a rookie deal, etc.)

Literally last 2 SB wins used that formula.

[FrantikRam]

On 5/24/2022 at 7:55 PM, Bolts223 said:

2020 Bucs? 2015 Broncos? Guess it depends on what your definition of a "Win Now" team is.

I'd argue that the majority of Super Bowl winners were in some form of "Win now" mode during the season that they won. (Whether it be trying to win with an aging QB, trying to win while they still have a QB on a rookie deal, etc.)

 

What the Rams have done is clearly different and I don't think there's a comp. I really doubt that another team went five consecutive years without a first round pick and won a Super Bowl.

So the Rams aside, I agree that what the Chargers did is pretty run of the mill in terms of trying to improve their roster. You can actually point to the Bengals as an example where a bunch of FA additions paid dividends, which is pretty much what the Chargers are attempting.

[NYRaider]

On 5/24/2022 at 5:21 AM, Soggust said:

MVS, sure.

But JuJu has 3 out of 5 years ended up with 800+ yards. One of the two years he didn't was when he played 5 games last year and the other sub 800-yard year was when Mason Rudolph was his QB.

There is no reason to believe he can't be a quality #2 at this point, especially when upgrading from a notoriously basic offensive mind in Tomlin to Andy Reid.

I actually think JuJu is going to surprise a lot of people this season.

[NYRaider]

On 5/24/2022 at 2:48 PM, Daniel said:

As for the Raiders, well, they were good last season, but they also had four overtime wins to no losses, and only two losses by a single score to three wins (excluding the OT wins).  7-2 in close games usually signifies overperforming to me.  I don't know if Adams actually makes up for that, but they faced a lot of crap last season, so they may still be a borderline playoff team.

We're a wild card because you can't really put a ton of stock into last season. Losing Ruggs, Gruden, etc. just made for a roller coaster year and we rallied at the end of the year to sneak into the playoffs. Ideally our coaching staff will be better and Adams is still a dominant piece but things could go either way for us.

[NYRaider]

On 5/24/2022 at 5:25 PM, Bearerofnews said:

Literally last 2 SB wins used that formula.

Yeah the Chargers definitely did an excellent job of going for it while Herbert is still on an affordable contract. The offense was fine last season, really just depends on if Staley has the pieces to run his defense, if it pans out well, the Chargers should be as good as anyone in the AFC.

[NYRaider]

On 5/24/2022 at 1:34 PM, Soggust said:

Well, at best, he's at least 1400 and 7 right? Those are #1 numbers. But obviously we don't expect that.

I don't know how many teams are getting 800ish yards out of their WR3 during healthy seasons, and we can debate him as a WR2 vs WR3 but it's really irrelevant to your point, I think. Your point is that regardless of whatever we say he is - He ain't Tyreek - and I think that's fair. 

Some Chiefs fans might point to the fact that Mahomes has a 103.1 rating and 8:1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 347.5 YPG without Hill to suggest that the loss won't be as dramatic as you and I might think, but I actually do think it's different trying to manage 5 games without a weapon vs a full season of prepared teams, obviously, so I would take it a different direction.

-------

The Chiefs just won 12 games during the worst stretch of Mahomes career (arguably his worst year). Why can't he have a better year this year? Sure, losing Tyreek hurts, but its also certainly possible Mahomes regresses towards his career mean, especially as he seemed to get through his slump in the second half of the year.

I'm not going to argue that losing Hill makes the Chiefs better because he's one of, if not the, most dynamic players in the NFL. But teams really did adjust last year which led to career lows in Y/A, IAY/PA, etc. because teams were just playing two high safeties most of the time and forcing Mahomes to take what they gave him. Tyreek had 27 more receptions in 2021 than he did in 2020 but had 37 less yards. (YPC went from 14.7 to 11.2)

Kelce is still a monster and the best TE in the game, losing Tyreek does hurt him but I think Reid will adjust just fine. 

I think you can make an argument that KC's lack of a third option and total dependence on Hill/Kelce hurt them when it mattered most because their offense was predictable. 

I'm personally a JuJu believer and think he'll fit really well with Reid as that WR that can operate over the middle of the field that they've missed over the last couple of seasons. MVS isn't anything special but he can stretch the field and should be decently productive. And I think Skyy Moore projects to have a really big season this year. So while they don't really have the star power, I think they'll spread the ball out a lot more which will make it harder to prepare for them.

[MrOaktown_56]

Anyone arguing diminishing returns for Adams didn’t see the raiders offense before vs after Henry Ruggs last year. Plus Adams is arguably the best RZ wr in the league and we were horrible there last year. Chandler Jones/ Rock Ya Sin were also decent adds. Averett is being slept on as well, as ravens fans can attest to. Our biggest question marks are strong safety and right tackle. Those holes could sink us, but the talent is certainly there.

I think it’s definitely possible we are 4th in the west, but I’ve seen quite a bit of disrespect online and we could be a lot better than that.

[y*so*blu]

I predict Ciara twerking on a Bronco will be what gets Denver back over the hump. [/sarcasm mode off]

It's a sad age we live in, folks.

[BroncoSojia]

3 hours ago, y*so*blu said:

I predict Ciara twerking on a Bronco will be what gets Denver back over the hump. [/sarcasm mode off]

It's a sad age we live in, folks.

Yeah, did you see those gas prices? It's ridiculous.