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Realistic Expectations


Bigbear72

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So, now that the draft is over and we have more of an idea of what the roster will look like going into the new season, I would like to get everyone's input of what your expectations are for this coming up season. Here I some things that I would be interested in hearing how you would measure success for 2022. Please base your opinions on what is hear and not what we wish would have happened leading up to this point. I want a realist viewpoint of what WE have to deal with currently and not what could have been.

     1. What would you view moving forward as success for the front office? 

     2. What would you view as a successful campaign for the coaching staff? What would be your criteria and how would you measure that success?

     3. How would you measure player success? What would you like to see from but the offensive and defensive side of the ball?

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34 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

1) Fields becoming a franchise QB.

2) Fields becoming a franchise QB. Fields becoming a franchise QB.

3) Players becoming good players. Success.

 

I hear that. But what would be your criteria to measure that success?

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16 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

I hear that. But what would be your criteria to measure that success?

The title 'franchise QB' gets thrown around way too loosely. To me, a franchise QB is prime Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Ryan, Ben, Mahomes, etc.

That's my criteria and what I wanna see.  If Fields fails then this regime failed.

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1 hour ago, JAF-N72EX said:

1) Fields becoming a franchise QB.

2) Fields becoming a franchise QB. Fields becoming a franchise QB.

3) Players becoming good players. Success.

 

^^^
None of the other s*** matters if Fields sucks

I want to see the FO and staff do whatever it takes. If that means Eberflus somehow helps him turn the corner and the defense is absolutely dogs***, fine. I want to see a real QB. 35 TD's and 10 INT's annually

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My expectation is that we are going to be last in NFCN this season because right now the other teams in division are better on paper. 

But we have the QB with greater talent and potential than either the Lions or Vikings and finding QBs is not easy.  The packers QB in on a limited time clock.   So that is a hope for future. 

Yes we didn’t get positions of great need or rather we still had great need, but aside from teams drafting in top half of first round and with multiple high picks we may end up comparing nicely if you are just matching up first 3 picks.  It wasn’t a horrible draft all things considered. Or it doesn’t look like horrible at this moment despite bad ratings.

Jenkins is still unknown.  We need him to be a hit.  Borom would be a bonus.  We really need first two picks to hit from this years draft.  Our margin for error is virtually nil.   Obviously near future rests on Fields development.  If he fails we are looking at another 8 years of bad to middling team.  People know that, I hope there is some patience this season.

 Remember that people were questioning Burrow after terrible Bears game last year.  He and team had really struggled up to that time.  For a different coach he may have even seen a hook and a reset after 5 Ints and maybe Burrow’s whole career is different.  

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Success for the Front Office isn’t going to be truly visible for about 3 seasons…even at that this draft/offseason is a bit of a false indicator as it wasn’t all Poles and staffs work given all the grading systems would have been set up by Pace & his staff…that said immediate success would be finding at least three day one starting players with at least one of those guys making a real impact…you want a few of those later round guys being good enough to be backups who can play significant snaps when needed and show development potential as for the longest time we have been unable to really develop guys from backups to quality starters…longer term success would be keeping guys on the roster past their rookie contracts because they become fundamental players…another thing we massively struggled with under Pace…

2016 draft: Whitehair & DHC out of 9 picks

2017 draft: Eddie Jackson out of 5 picks.

2018 draft: Roquan out of 7 picks.

2019 draft: Monty out of 5 picks. (Shelly too but I doubt he makes the team this year)

To have only 5 (6 potentially) out of 26 draft picks on your roster from a 4-year period is terrible…especially when you then consider the positions…G, S, S, LB, RB…not one single primer position player…Poles will not nor should not survive if his record is anything like that…I would also point out the fact we only made 26 selections over 4 drafts is another indicator of how badly the franchise was being ran at that point…Poles making 11 selections this offseason isn’t by chance…he is not only giving himself more swings to hit on someone but trying to make up for the talent deficiency he was left by Pace…

Success for Poles would be not selling off a ton of future draft capital when we aren’t close to being a winning franchise…sticking as closely to a BPA approach at all times…drafting quality players at primer positions early & drafting high upside coachable players who this staff can take from backup quality players to potential starters down the road…

In free agency success would be targeting top players who have the skills to transcend scheme and make immediate impacts again at primer positions…and on the flip side of that target lower cost veteran starters at positions of less importance to plug roster gaps and allow us to draft their eventual replacements within 1-2 years…much like he has done this season…no more overpaying for potential in FA…target top stars and bottom starters…not the middle ground in hopes of elevating them…use the draft for that which is lower cost & lower risk…

If Poles can achieve that and this coaching staff can be the teaches they say they are (as does their track records) then we can quickly turn this round and become competitive again.

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26 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

My expectation is that we are going to be last in NFCN this season because right now the other teams in division are better on paper. 

But we have the QB with greater talent and potential than either the Lions or Vikings and finding QBs is not easy.  The packers QB in on a limited time clock.   So that is a hope for future. 

Yes we didn’t get positions of great need or rather we still had great need, but aside from teams drafting in top half of first round and with multiple high picks we may end up comparing nicely if you are just matching up first 3 picks.  It wasn’t a horrible draft all things considered. Or it doesn’t look like horrible at this moment despite bad ratings.

Jenkins is still unknown.  We need him to be a hit.  Borom would be a bonus.  We really need first two picks to hit from this years draft.  Our margin for error is virtually nil.   Obviously near future rests on Fields development.  If he fails we are looking at another 8 years of bad to middling team.  People know that, I hope there is some patience this season.

 Remember that people were questioning Burrow after terrible Bears game last year.  He and team had really struggled up to that time.  For a different coach he may have even seen a hook and a reset after 5 Ints and maybe Burrow’s whole career is different.  

Not one coach would've benched Burrow last year. Prior to the Bears game he had thrown for 15 touchdowns and 5 INT's in 11 career games. 

However I understand your main point here. The team is rather talentless and another year of bad play from Fields could have the entire organization and fan base yearning for a new QB

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23 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

^^^
None of the other s*** matters if Fields sucks

I want to see the FO and staff do whatever it takes. If that means Eberflus somehow helps him turn the corner and the defense is absolutely dogs***, fine. I want to see a real QB. 35 TD's and 10 INT's annually

I get the hyper-focus and hypersensitivity to the QB position given our history. I truly do. But this is just not a factual or realistic statement. The fact of the matter is the rest of the team does matter. No matter how great Fields is he alone is not going to bring us a SB victory (ask Dan Marino). Football, more than any other sport is a team sport. If we solely focus on Fields development and leave the defense to die, that will hurt Fields as well. Do you really want to have in playing from behind every week because our opponents are putting 30+ puts up on us consistently? That leaves him open to make more critical mistakes, be under more pressure (both physically and mentally), and quite frankly also sounds like a recipe for disaster. Plus, he would have to do all of that while learning a new system. Does Fields need more weapons? Of course. Would I have liked to have seen more of a focus on the offense? Sure would have. But to have this mentality that everything should have been poured into the offense and nothing else matters just does make sense to me.

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10 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

Success for Poles would be not selling off a ton of future draft capital when we aren’t close to being a winning franchise

I'd take a GM who is willing to go all in on a QB, regardless of what it costs, over one who sits around and expects his QB to throw the ball to kick returners. All day long. Another team that took the same approach is sitting at home right now enjoying their shiny new trophy.

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Fields is too talented of a QB. If he fails then this regime needs to go. Because the chances of them finding a better talent then him in a draft is pretty slim. And if they can't make it work with FIelds then I wouldn't trust them in anyone else anyhow.

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1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

Success for the Front Office isn’t going to be truly visible for about 3 seasons…even at that this draft/offseason is a bit of a false indicator as it wasn’t all Poles and staffs work given all the grading systems would have been set up by Pace & his staff…that said immediate success would be finding at least three day one starting players with at least one of those guys making a real impact…you want a few of those later round guys being good enough to be backups who can play significant snaps when needed and show development potential as for the longest time we have been unable to really develop guys from backups to quality starters…longer term success would be keeping guys on the roster past their rookie contracts because they become fundamental players…another thing we massively struggled with under Pace…

2016 draft: Whitehair & DHC out of 9 picks

2017 draft: Eddie Jackson out of 5 picks.

2018 draft: Roquan out of 7 picks.

2019 draft: Monty out of 5 picks. (Shelly too but I doubt he makes the team this year)

To have only 5 (6 potentially) out of 26 draft picks on your roster from a 4-year period is terrible…especially when you then consider the positions…G, S, S, LB, RB…not one single primer position player…Poles will not nor should not survive if his record is anything like that…I would also point out the fact we only made 26 selections over 4 drafts is another indicator of how badly the franchise was being ran at that point…Poles making 11 selections this offseason isn’t by chance…he is not only giving himself more swings to hit on someone but trying to make up for the talent deficiency he was left by Pace…

Success for Poles would be not selling off a ton of future draft capital when we aren’t close to being a winning franchise…sticking as closely to a BPA approach at all times…drafting quality players at primer positions early & drafting high upside coachable players who this staff can take from backup quality players to potential starters down the road…

In free agency success would be targeting top players who have the skills to transcend scheme and make immediate impacts again at primer positions…and on the flip side of that target lower cost veteran starters at positions of less importance to plug roster gaps and allow us to draft their eventual replacements within 1-2 years…much like he has done this season…no more overpaying for potential in FA…target top stars and bottom starters…not the middle ground in hopes of elevating them…use the draft for that which is lower cost & lower risk…

If Poles can achieve that and this coaching staff can be the teaches they say they are (as does their track records) then we can quickly turn this round and become competitive again.

All that doesn't matter.   He has one honeymoon year.   He better start showing tangible on field results after this season.  Nobody gets a 3 years honeymoon with a QB in place and in his 2nd year.

Poles has to go into FA next year and plug holes and bring in impact players even if he doesn't want to.

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Success for this coaching staff comes down to one thing and one thing only…Development…

Justin Fields has to be where this things starts…development wise we seem on the right path in that everything this offseason seems to be about working on his footwork, shortening his motion and getting the ball out his hand quicker…these things are key for this offence which is far more about staying on time than anything else…when it comes to minicamp, OTAs & training camp we need to give him as many reps as possible & keep the playbook concise when it comes to concepts…at times I think we all forget that practice & development continues throughout the year…what this playbook looks like at the start of the season does not mean it needs to look the same at the end of the year…we can continue to add more as we go…initially make this offence about timing & getting the ball out of his hand…if it’s not there allow his natural playmaking & athletic ability to take over to keep the chains moving…

Out with the development of Fields there are a ton of other questions on this offence that require scheme and development to help us reach the potential we could have with a QB like Fields…

Can Mooney replicate last season or even better it and become a true #1 receiver in this scheme with better QB play?

Can we carve out a real role for Velus?

Is Cole Kmet a long-term fixture for this franchise or are we drafting another guy next offseason?

Do we have a set of young OTs in Jenkins & Borom? Does Braxton Jones offer more than either at LT?

Who is playing at RG? Is it Zach Thomas or do we need to sign a vet?

Success would be developing Fields into a top 16 QB with the upside of moving into the top 8 in year two of this offence but also answering the above questions one way or the other because decisions will have to be made about how we move forward in every one of those position rooms…

Stats wise it’s tough to put a number on anything because we don’t know what it is going to be built around…are we going to run the ball a lot? Are we going to try and scheme to get a guy like Mooney open a ton or are we going to spread the balls around to many receivers? What role do we see for a guy like St. Brown? Will Kmet be a big factor? Will we expect a lot out of the RBs in the passing game?…however the offence is made up…we just need every aspect to be better when it comes to efficiency…we need the offence to average more yards per play…to be far more efficient in the redzone…to score more points than last year…it’s not a high bar I grant you but it’s the development that matters.

For the defence it’s much the same story of developing young players with a view of the future…

Getting Travis Gipson to continue to build on last season will be key as he will still be getting opportunities with Quinn on the other side…we need Quan to come in and be that #3 guy who can rotate in and still provide consistent pass rush considering these three will be the main source of the rush all season…the next question is can we use Robinson like we did Mark Anderson all those years ago? What can we get out of him on 3rd & long? It will be interesting to see what he looks like when the pads go on in TC…inside we are clearly lacking in talent which is a concern considering how important that UT position is to this defence…we need to hope Jones stays healthy…for me he is more of a Tank Johnson type than a Tommie Harris but we need him to add some pass rush upside…

LB we know we will get elite play from Roquan at either MLB or WLB…Morrow will add speed to the 2nd level which is also key to this scheme…we just need to hope he can return to pre injury form…behind that depth is a clear issue and part of the reason we are signing his upside young guys who could develop into quality depth…I would prefer to sign a guy like Hitchens as well given that depth…

At DB we now have a ton of young high upside talent who are going to be tested early…Johnson should take the next step to being a top quality CB in this scheme…Gordon & Brisker are pro ready prospects who should be able to give us good play straight off the bat…now it’s on to Jackson who we need a lot from…I feel he can still be a leader back there and if asked to play as more of true FS role next to Brisker could return back to being a really good player but there is no doubt a question mark there and with his cap number we will more than likely be looking for a new FS next offseason…at NB Young is a quality player but again there is a real health concern there.

Overall this defence has some talent but also a lot of question marks especially when it comes to health and depth…we need to see if we can develop some of these young guys for long term success…in terms of numbers I couldn’t care less about the amount of yards we give up…we need to focus on taking the ball away and being good in the redzone…turn what would have been TDs into field goals or turnovers…less points would be more success.

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1 hour ago, Bigbear72 said:

I get the hyper-focus and hypersensitivity to the QB position given our history. I truly do. But this is just not a factual or realistic statement. The fact of the matter is the rest of the team does matter. No matter how great Fields is he alone is not going to bring us a SB victory (ask Dan Marino). Football, more than any other sport is a team sport. If we solely focus on Fields development and leave the defense to die, that will hurt Fields as well. Do you really want to have in playing from behind every week because our opponents are putting 30+ puts up on us consistently? That leaves him open to make more critical mistakes, be under more pressure (both physically and mentally), and quite frankly also sounds like a recipe for disaster. Plus, he would have to do all of that while learning a new system. Does Fields need more weapons? Of course. Would I have liked to have seen more of a focus on the offense? Sure would have. But to have this mentality that everything should have been poured into the offense and nothing else matters just does make sense to me.

I didn't say everything should be poured into the offense. But if Fields sucks, the rest of the team won't be a true contender

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14 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

All that doesn't matter.   He has one honeymoon year.   He better start showing tangible on field results after this season.  Nobody gets a 3 years honeymoon with a QB in place and in his 2nd year.

Poles has to go into FA next year and plug holes and bring in impact players even if he doesn't want to.

The two things aren't linked...yes things should get better in terms of wins early but in terms of becoming a perennial playoff contender we have to give him time because what he walked into was bad. 

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