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Realistic Expectations


Bigbear72

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4 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Hester wasn't drafted to be a WR though, he was an elite returner at Miami and that's what he was specifically drafted to be. Velus isn't elite at anything. Hester also didn't have much experience as a WR until he was forced into the role in Chicago which is why he struggled so much.

Plus, Hester and Cupp were both 24 going into their rookie season. If you're talking about their exact age on draft day they were both 23 years old. Velus turned 25 two weeks after the draft and guys who were 25 years or older when they were drafted don't exactly have the greatest track record of success. Especially at WR. Go back to the last 41 years and Velus is only the 11th WR drafted at the age of 25 or older since 1981. The other 10 were;

  • John Ursa: Year 1-- 3 games, 1 rec, 11 yards, 0 TDs. Out of the league in 1 year.
  • DeMarco Sampson: Year 1--12 games, 3 rec, 38 yards, 0TDs. Out of the league in 1 year.
  • Clyde Gates: Year 1-- 15 games, 2 rec, 19 yards, 0TDs. Out of the league in 3 years.
  • Tim Toone: Year 0.
  • Lynn James: Year 1-- 11 games, 3 rec, 36 yards, 0TDs. Out of the league in 2 years.
  • Ryan Thelwell: Year 1-- 6 games, 16 rec, 268 yards, 1TD. Out of the league in 1 year.
  • Andre King: Year 1-- 7 games, 11 rec, 149 yards, 0TDs. Out of the league in 4 years.
  • Patrick Crayton: Year 1-- 8 games, 12 rec, 162 yards, 1TD. 8 years in the league.
  • Ernest Wilford: Year 1--15 games, 19 rec, 272 yards, 2TDs. 7 years in the league.
  • Kevin Curtis: Year 1--4 games, 4 rec, 13 yards, 0TDs. 8 years in the league.

7 of them were out of the league within 3 years and only 3 of them were ever a primary starter in at least 1 season during their careers -- Ernest Wilford, Patrick Crayton, Kevin Curtis. Not exactly a high bar. Wilford was a jag. It took Clayton 4 years to have a decent season and it proved to be more of an anomaly than anything else. It took Curtis 5 years even after playing with the GSOT and that was also short lived but at least he was the only WR who ever reached a 1000 yards one time in his career (thanks Andy Reid) before completely falling off a cliff in year 6. 

If Velus becomes the 1st WR in the last ~40 years to break this cycle then I'll gladly come back and eat my words.
 

LOL, so Velus sucks because he is 25 going into his first year of the NFL. You really should be working for an NFL team instead of posting here.

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21 minutes ago, dafreak said:

LOL, so Velus sucks because he is 25 going into his first year of the NFL. You really should be working for an NFL team instead of posting here.

Yeah because age is the only problem I have with him and not the other issues I've pointed out in other threads regarding his play.  Such an insightful post. Maybe I should I go work for your Packers team.

 

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4 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

I never suggested Poles should only be given a half an off season. That's not what my comment was about. Mine was about the silly notion that we shouldn't question the Velus pick or blame the FO just because "they got their guy", when there is plenty of reasons to have doubts (just like there was with Mitch) is not only strange but also very hypocritical as well.

For years people on here would say "well I didn't like this pick or that pick or agree with the position choice" when the same "their guy" argument could be made and yet they still continuously bring up how much they didn't like it. Hell, even more in hindsight. But now all of sudden we're supposed to just celebrate the pick and trust the process right?

Look at how much flak Belichick was getting for his draft this year and how many people on here were laughing at him for taking Cole Strange? Where was all of this "well he got his guy" talk then?

I know you didn't, I just meant more that the criticisms and praises are all way too premature at this point. We all have favorites and players that d is nothing for us but how good they will turn out will have to likely take 2+ years to get a real grasp on. "Their guy" needs to produce or it is a poor pick if a top 3rd or 4th rounder. Maybe not rookie year but if they arent even valued enough to sign a 2nd contract with the team and they're a 3rd or higher it really looks bad. But im of the opinion ANY pick can be challenged as long as there is more sound reasoning than "our GM sucks so whoever he picks sucks" or "Bama RBs are trash" or other generic nonsense. 

Agree with you here. I cant say that a pick is good because they got their choice but I also think they need 2-3 years to show they are a really good or bad pick.  Sometimes they start poor and pick up (like Tru from year 1 to 2) or they can really fall off after a hot start (Anthony Miller). Critiques are fine, id rather people dig into why they dont like a person rather than have constant Bear Goggles on. I REALLY disliked Kmet predraft but I hope like hell he comes out and makes me eat crow. 

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31 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Yeah because age is the only problem I have with him and not the other issues I've pointed out in other threads regarding his play.  Such an insightful post. Maybe I should I go work for your Packers team.

 

I did not read your other posts, but why do you think Poles selected Velus over any other WR? You provided some stats but what do they mean? 25 year old WR's "at the start of their NFL career" suck? #1 WR 25 year olds "at the start of their NFL career" suck? In general 25 year olds "at the start of their NFL career" suck? But more importantly, why do you think Poles and company focused on Velus? I know you are a "great" GM but why Velus over everyone else available?

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15 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

I know you didn't, I just meant more that the criticisms and praises are all way too premature at this point. We all have favorites and players that d is nothing for us but how good they will turn out will have to likely take 2+ years to get a real grasp on. "Their guy" needs to produce or it is a poor pick if a top 3rd or 4th rounder. Maybe not rookie year but if they arent even valued enough to sign a 2nd contract with the team and they're a 3rd or higher it really looks bad. But im of the opinion ANY pick can be challenged as long as there is more sound reasoning than "our GM sucks so whoever he picks sucks" or "Bama RBs are trash" or other generic nonsense. 

Agree with you here. I cant say that a pick is good because they got their choice but I also think they need 2-3 years to show they are a really good or bad pick.  Sometimes they start poor and pick up (like Tru from year 1 to 2) or they can really fall off after a hot start (Anthony Miller). Critiques are fine, id rather people dig into why they dont like a person rather than have constant Bear Goggles on. I REALLY disliked Kmet predraft but I hope like hell he comes out and makes me eat crow. 

Outside of maybe a couple of small semantics (that I won't get into b/c it doesn't really matter) I largely agree with everything you said here suga. Especially the highlighted points. Well put. I agree 100%. If you like/dislike a draftee then at least have a valid reason for it and try to look at it as objectively as you can without your opinion being clouded for one reason or another. This is exactly what I try to do with every player and it's what I'm doing now with the Velus pick.

I've stated my reasons as to why I didn't like the pick from day 1 and I have gone into detail about his play and why his age matters more than people think it does based on MY OPINION and personal research. I'm also a die hard Bears fan and I truly hope I'm wrong about Velus and he becomes a staple of the offense who can help Fields become the player we all think/hope he is. But again, based on my opinion, the likelihood of this happening seems pretty small with him.

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57 minutes ago, dafreak said:

did not read your other posts, but why do you think Poles selected Velus over any other WR?

For his speed and athleticism which are generally good traits to use in spacing concepts which I suspect we'll see alot of in Getsy's offense. But it takes more than speed and athleticism to be a good WR as we've seen with several other athletic WRs with speed. His route running is very limited and his experience with running the tree is even more limited.

 

57 minutes ago, dafreak said:

You provided some stats but what do they mean? 25 year old WR's "at the start of their NFL career" suck? #1 WR 25 year olds "at the start of their NFL career" suck? In general 25 year olds "at the start of their NFL career" suck?

You need to be specific on what part your confused about. It's pretty self explanatory.

Going back as far as 1981, 25 year old draftees and older generally don't work out too well --this is based on the 115 players drafted since 1981 (minus the 5 in 2022). There's a reason why coaches stray away from them or only use a late 7th round pick on them.  Especially at WR and other positions where there's a learning curve because they're damn near 30 by the time they catch on to the NFL level, if at all. WRs usually don't even start to peak until year 2. This stands to reason why the top 20 most successful 25+ year olds out of the 115 players were playing at positions with a relatively minimal learning curve like DB, RB, and OL where they can make an immediate impact within the 1st or 2nd year with a lot less time in development than a position like WR.

This list is based on wCAv. The top 20 players drafted at the age of 25 or older. If you need more info on what these stats mean then use the search feature where I recently explained it in detail.

Player Pos DrAge wAV
Terence Newman DB 25 70
Sebastian Vollmer OL 25 52
Antowain Smith RB 25 48
Pierce Holt DE 26 45
Edwin Mulitalo OL 25 44
Derrick Rodgers LB 25 43
Yeremiah Bell DB 25 40
Terry Long OL 25 38
Nick Kaczur OL 26 37
Mike Anderson RB 26 37
Sione Pouha DT 26 36
Christian Okoye RB 26 34
Garett Bolles OL 25 33
Patrick Crayton WR 25 33
Jeff Wright DT 25 30
Dave Thomas DB 25 26
Brady Poppinga LB 25 25
Kevin Curtis WR 25 25
Rob Morris LB 25 24
Ryan Denney DE 25 23

Only 6 different 25 year old draftees since 1981 have ever made the pro-bowl (which is a low bar) and not a single one has ever made 1st team All pro.

Terence Newman DB
Christian Okoye RB
Pierce Holt DE
Yeremiah Bell DB
Gary Stills DE
Matt Gay K

 

Edited by JAF-N72EX
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58 minutes ago, dafreak said:

I did not read your other posts, but why do you think Poles selected Velus over any other WR? You provided some stats but what do they mean? 25 year old WR's "at the start of their NFL career" suck? #1 WR 25 year olds "at the start of their NFL career" suck? In general 25 year olds "at the start of their NFL career" suck? But more importantly, why do you think Poles and company focused on Velus? I know you are a "great" GM but why Velus over everyone else available?

Now explain to me why you think Velus will be good?

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6 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Now explain to me why you think Velus will be good?

I have no idea if he will be good but I also don't think he was drafted to be a #1. I think he was drafted because his skill set will provide Fields options in the passing game that perhaps a true #1 could not. If, and I know a big if, but if he is in the mold of a Deebo or Tyreek then the pick will be a home run. He was drafted to take pressure off of Fields and the OL and is a piece of a much bigger puzzle. I think we need to put some faith into what Poles is doing and I just can't get on board with bashing the pick based on his age, no matter the stats. The question should be why did Poles and company choose Velus Jones?

 

At rookie minicamp there was one play that stood out to me, he had a 10-yard dig route in and caught it and hit that second gear kick for a touchdown,” Fields said in an interview with Bleacher Report. “I think he caught it at 10 yards and took it 60, so he’s a great run-after-the-catch guy. He’s going to pick up a lot of yards and is physical. He’s almost like a running back at receiver. Having him on the outside and putting the ball in his hands and letting him work will be great.”

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