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Are QBs more easily able to transition to the NFL now or was 2017-2020 just a really good run on elite QBs coming into the league?


Bolts223

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3 hours ago, lancerman said:

Part of it is being a great run and part of it is that QB’s are prone to have big years early before refreshing to the mean.

Is that really true though?

Most of the cases of this I can think of (Wentz being the main one) is because of injuries/his style of play was dependent on physicality and athleticism. Also just that Eagles offense was so stacked that it was probably going to make any QB look a lot better than they actually were.

Edited by Bolts223
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55 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

Is that really true though?

Most of the cases of this I can think of (Wentz being the main one) is because of injuries/his style of play was dependent on physicality and athleticism. Also just that Eagles offense was so stacked that it was probably going to make any QB look a lot better than they actually were.

Kaep, RGIII, Goff, Baker. All those guys had high tier years once or twice early on. Goff even was in MVP conversations for awhile in 2018

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35 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Kaep, RGIII, Goff, Baker. All those guys had high tier years once or twice early on. Goff even was in MVP conversations for awhile in 2018

 Yeah but even at the time I (and other people) thought that Goff was mostly a product of Mcvay’s system. He was pretty damn awful in his rookie year under Fisher. 
 

RGIII was another case of the fall off being because of injuries ruining a QB who was good because of freak athleticism.

Baker and Kaep are decent examples I guess. But I’d say there are more QBs that that didn’t fall off or got better. Wilson, Dak, Mahomes, Watson (off the field stuff aside), even Lamar Jackson is still very good even if he’s unlikely to repeat 2019.

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On 5/27/2022 at 5:29 PM, Bolts223 said:

Most of the cases of this I can think of (Wentz being the main one) is because of injuries/his style of play was dependent on physicality and athleticism. Also just that Eagles offense was so stacked that it was probably going to make any QB look a lot better than they actually were.

That Eagles offense was not stacked at all, they had some good players but nothing crazy. Wentz struggles have been mental.

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5 hours ago, NYRaider said:

That Eagles offense was not stacked at all, they had some good players but nothing crazy. Wentz struggles have been mental.

Yeah I wouldn't classify the Eagles 2017 Offense as "stacked" by any stretch of the imagination. However it was the best overall unit Wentz ever had at his disposal as a Eagle or Colt.

Best OL in the NFL

Top 3 Rush offense

Top 3 TE

Alshon, Smith and even Nelson flippin Agholor finally showed signs of life as a NFL WR.

As well as a Top 5 Defense to boot

Edited by Nabbs4u
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Just now, SteelKing728 said:

What's his story? lol

He was the #1 QB recruit in 2017 which also featured guys like Tua, Mac, and Pickett. When he went to Stanford he looked like a guy that would eventually become a 1st round pick. He started his career there as a backup, had some injury issues, and lost games due to the covid season, so he only played in 13 games during his four years in college. Considering how little he actually played at Stanford I thought that he played really well last season. It's crazy that he played in as many NFL games last year as he did in between HS and the start of his NFL career. 

 

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The leashes have never been shorter. A guy like Jay cutler got like 10 years in Chicago of mostly medicore play and never winning anything. I can’t see that happen today 

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12 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

The leashes have never been shorter. A guy like Jay cutler got like 10 years in Chicago of mostly medicore play and never winning anything. I can’t see that happen today 

Pass happy league and the rookie pay scale has made it easier to move on from guys if they don't pan out.

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On 5/26/2022 at 7:48 AM, ET80 said:

I think they’re more prepared - as far back as the 00s, guys coming out of HS into college were only introduced to advanced concepts as a Freshman, and got their first taste of elite coaching then. Sure, there are some great HS coaches in that level, but those were anomalies in QB growth.

Now? Guys are getting tutoring from former pro QBs or private QB coaches as early as the age of 11. People such as Sean Salisbury, Jordan Palmer, Quincy Avery - they’ve started to work with these QBs early and identify traits early in to build on, while sanding down flaws in mechanics, all while teaching very advanced read and recognition skills, pre and post snap checks, etc. 

Best stated - guys are coming from HS to college more advanced than ever. Sometimes the growth gets stagnant in College, or sometimes it takes on a new development path, which all ultimately feeds into a more pronounced QB once they’re drafted.

I graduated in 2000.  Want to talk boring football? I doubt that they passed more than 20% of the time.  Our team, their team, anyone in the games.  

 

On 5/9/2022 at 10:41 AM, Bolts223 said:

But 2017-2020 saw a really great run on QB's that have had success in the NFL.

  • Patrick Mahomes
  • Deshaun Watson
  • Josh Allen
  • Lamar Jackson
  • Kyler Murray
  • Joe Burrow
  • Justin Herbert

 

That is a good group of QBs.  But are we really looking at their rookie seasons? 

-Mahomes played one game, and was okay.

-Watson was pretty good, finished 3-3 as a starter but has greatly improved since that season.

-Allen threw more INTs than TDs.

-Jackson was 6-1 as a starter.  But he only passed for 6 TDs and 75 yards per game.

-Murray has been consistent as a starter since being a rookie.  He has very similar stats from his first three seasons.

-Burrow finished 2-7-1 in his first season.  He was pretty good for a poor Bengals team, and he definitely improved his second season.

-Herbert came in and played great.  Though he decreased his completion percentage, increased his INTs, and decreased his passer rating.  He is obviously on the decline, and is headed to bustsville.  ;)

Mac Jones is at least in the neighborhood as all of these guys as rookies.  You are probably on to something that the 13-16 classes just weren't that good.  

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23 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I graduated in 2000.  Want to talk boring football? I doubt that they passed more than 20% of the time.  Our team, their team, anyone in the games.  

C/o 1998 here - we had some racehorses at WR, dudes who were out of central casting, tall and long dudes with hands, ball skills, speed and quickness to spare.

Despite this, we ran an I-form option offense - fast fake to the zero hole for the FB (yes, an ACTUAL FB) then QB sprint and split the DE, pitch or keep. Our WRs were nothing more than guys who set the edge. They made their names playing DB, fortunately.

20 some years later, it’s all spread/Air Raid with QBs who have been watching All-22 since the 7th grade. So yeah - change took place that got these QBs actually playing QB.

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2 hours ago, ET80 said:

C/o 1998 here - we had some racehorses at WR, dudes who were out of central casting, tall and long dudes with hands, ball skills, speed and quickness to spare.

Despite this, we ran an I-form option offense - fast fake to the zero hole for the FB (yes, an ACTUAL FB) then QB sprint and split the DE, pitch or keep. Our WRs were nothing more than guys who set the edge. They made their names playing DB, fortunately.

20 some years later, it’s all spread/Air Raid with QBs who have been watching All-22 since the 7th grade. So yeah - change took place that got these QBs actually playing QB.

It is amazing to me that any QB ever developed in that era.  I don't recall seeing more than 10 passes in any game.  To be fair to the coach, our OL was easily the strength of our school.  Lots of 6'3+ 260+ farm boys in rural Missouri.  But man, was it boring.  My rival school produced Grant Wistrom and his less successful brothers, so someone made it out of there.  

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