RAS, the Draft, and the Bengals

[THE DUKE]

I knew what Relative Athletic Score (RAS) was last year, but I wasn't really looking at it as a draft indicator.  RAS seems to have really taken off this year in its use as a draft analytic tool.  How I viewed it was kind of how Joe Goodberry introduced it to me last year through the Locked On Bengals podcasts to use as an indicator to make sure guys who had shown good football skill at least past certain thresholds that we have seen from historically good players in the NFL past.  That definitely seems to best way to use it to me, so you aren't passing on supremely skilled players that don't test as elite athletes, as long as they aren't a bottom tier athlete.  Once you get to day 3 of the draft, I am much more of the mindset that we should be drafting high RAS players as once you get past the first 100 picks, most of the best football skill will be picked over in the draft and then it's time to invest in elite athletes and hope you can refine that skill.  Through that lens, I just looked at last years draft class, and that is what prompted me to make this thread.

Ja'Mar Chase - 9.81 RAS - RASRAS Information
Jackson Carman - Incomplete Testing - Jackson Carman RAS
Joseph Ossai - 9.49 RAS - Joseph Ossai RAS
Cam Sample - 6.98 RAS - Cameron Sample RAS
D'Ante Smith - 6.17 RAS - RASRAS Information (35.25" arm length)
Tyler Shelvin - 0.86 RAS - Tyler Shelvin RAS
Evan McPherson - No Testing - Evan McPherson RAS (Hey, he's a kicker)
Chris Evans - 9.85 RAS - Chris Evans RAS
Trey Hill - 2.02 RAS - Trey Hill RAS
Wyatt Hubert - 5.99 RAS - Wyatt Hubert RAS

Now, not all draft classes will lineup like this, but who were we happy about as rookies?  Chase (elite athlete), Ossai before injury (elite athlete), Evans (elite athlete).  Cam Sample and D'Ante Smith fluctuated between just a guy and below average both tested as slightly above average athletes.  Same with Hubert, but he was also injured.  Hubert did have great agility testing though and did make a little noise in camp.  Tyler Shelvin and his bottom 10% athletic testing pretty much just looked like a big fat guy as a rookie.  Trey Hill didn't test all that great and didn't make much noise. Jackson Carman is supposed to be athletic, but an incomplete profile is a risk, and that pick still looks like a risk.  Pretty much no one is judging a kicker by how athletic they are, just boot that ball, and McPherson was a home run pick.  Early returns on that class back up my position.  Get the elite athletes with skill, and don't look for unathletic guys on day 3.

Transpose the same view to this years class

Dax Hill - 9.04 RAS - Daxton Hill RAS
Cam Taylor-Britt - 8.32 RAS - Cam Taylor-Britt RAS
Zach Carter - 8.12 RAS - Zachary Carter RAS
Cordell Volson - 6.06 RAS - Cordell Volson RAS
Tycen Anderson - 9.49 RAS - Tycen Anderson RAS
Jeff Gunter - 9.75 RAS - Jeffrey Gunter RAS

While still focusing on tape, developed and proven football skill we got good to elite athletes on days 1 and 2.  Volson as a guard is more of a mid level athlete, but he hit most thresholds to possibly still be a solid player so I won't discount that pick, but the last two picks were both elite athletes that maybe had not as good competition, or are a little more raw on their technique and need development.  This is exactly the type of player I want us to be taking on day 3 though, and don't see much reason in taking below average to bad NFL athletes in the later rounds.

Is this fool proof?  Absolutely not, here are just a few of the Bengals and how they stacked up testing wise:

Chad Johsnon - 3.94 now, 5.85 when drafted - Chad Johnson RAS
Kevin Zeitler - 7.66 now, 7.82 when drafted - Kevin Zeitler RAS
Mo Sanu - 6.47 now, 7.02 when drafted - Mohamed Sanu RAS
Tyler Boyd - 4.27 now, 5.15 when drafted - Tyler Boyd RAS
Tee Higgins - 4.11 now, 4.16 when drafted - Tee Higgins RAS
Odell Thurman - 4.04 now, 4.25 when drafted - Odell Thurman RAS
Willie Anderson - 2.55 now, 4.24 when drafted - Willie Anderson RAS

The Bengals have drafted two players who were 10 RAS scores when drafted

Eric Steinbach - Eric Steinbach RAS
Jason Shirley - Jason Shirley RAS

Can't think of a better example that RAS alone will not dictate success.  Steinbach was great, Shirley......not so much.  However, as pick 145 in round 5, he was absolutely a shot worth taking.

Football skill and tape evaluation should always be the first tool of scouting in the draft, but RAS can be very useful as well.  Just don't use it as a crutch.

[sparky151]

I was hoping we'd take a day 3 flier on Tariq Woolen or Zion McCollum, a couple of CBs with elite RAS. Woolen is a WR to CB conversion who is very raw. McCollum has plenty of CB snaps but at a lower level. 

[Beck Bristow]

11 hours ago, sparky151 said:

I was hoping we'd take a day 3 flier on Tariq Woolen or Zion McCollum, a couple of CBs with elite RAS. Woolen is a WR to CB conversion who is very raw. McCollum has plenty of CB snaps but at a lower level. 

Would have definitely liked to have one of those two to try to develop  

[THE DUKE]

7 hours ago, Beck Bristow said:

Would have definitely liked to have one of those two to try to develop  

Could have been options but it looks like they want to develop an elite athlete at safety over a 2nd CB in the draft.  I think we see a lot of 3 safety looks with Logan Wilson as the sole LB on the field in 3rd and long this year.

[sparky151]

They usually carry 4 safeties and 6 CBs on the roster. It looks like 5 and 5 this year. Hill can backup Hilton in the slot. CTB can backup/challenge Apple. But we lost 3 CBs from last year in Waynes, Phillips, and Hargreaves. We've only added CTB. So we should have taken another CB in my opinion. Woolen is a 6-4 CB with 33" arms who ran a 4.26 at the combine. That's plenty of tools to work with. He could backup/challenge Flowers as the TE specialist in 2022. He could also have been a 2 way player with a few 9 routes for the offense. McCollum isn't quite as straight line fast as Woolen but is 6-2 with elite athleticism. 

[THE DUKE]

I figure i'll keep this thread to keep working backwards through Bengals drafts and the further back we get, the more complete view we'll have of the players being discussed.

2020 Draft

Joe Burrow - Incomplete Testing - Joe Burrow RAS
Tee Higgins - 4.11 RAS, 4.16 when drafted - Tee Higgins RAS
Logan Wilson - 8.83 RAS, 8.83 when drafted - Logan Wilson RAS
Akeem Davis-Gaither - Incomplete Testing - Akeem Davis-Gaither RAS
Khalid Kareem - Incomplete testing - Khalid Kareem RAS
Hakeem Adeniji - 7.83 RAS, 7.68 when drafted - Hakeem Adeniji RAS
Markus Bailey - Incomplete Testing - Markus Bailey RAS

The first thing that jumps out to me about the 2020 class, is that there was a whole lot of incomplete athletic profiles.  Now Burrow I think just didn't test, because he didn't really need to as the consensus #1 overall prospect.  In general though, I don't like taking the incomplete profiles. It's not necessarily a 'Do Not Draft' type of situation, but it is a risk.  Now risks with lower round picks are a little more acceptable, but I like the idea of getting guys who are healthy and have shown to be elite athletes better.

1. Joe Burrow, QB, LSU - When you are the man, no testing is needed.  If I recall correctly, he was perfectly healthy, just didn't have to prove anything after having arguably the greatest college football season ever.  The one thing RAS did tell us is that Burrow had good size for the QB position and he wouldn't be an outlier based on that to have success.

33. Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson - Higgins is a great case study of just don't look at the testing, draft good football players.  In the early rounds, your evaluation of their football talent has to be king.  And while 4.16 sounds bad, it is still close to an average athletic profile, compared to other NFL draft prospects, and it also shows that he passes most of the thresholds that wouldn't make him an outlier.  The one real curious one to me is that shuttle time, a 4.53 being in the bottom 10% of all draftable WR's since 1987.  That may have given me pause then, but now is a reminder that tape is still king, especially early on.  Higgins had lots of good tape against good competition, and his size and ball skills are both special.

65. Logan Wilson, LB, Wyoming - Wilson had the best athletic profile of anyone we drafted in 2020, being an 88th percentile athlete amongst LB's, and it's a well rounded profile all around with the vertical jump being the only red flag.  All the other measurements are good to great across the board.  Now Wilson did have some legitimate quality of competition concerns, but he aced the pre-draft process and answered a lot of those, and is on the verge of being one of the better LB's in the league.  Outside of the obvious Burrow pick, you can argue this was our best pick in this draft, which also happened to correlate with the high RAS.  Higgins has a decent argument as well, and therein lies the counter argument.

107. Akeem Davis-Gaither, LB, Appalachian State - ADG is small for a linebacker, and without tesing you have an incomplete athletic profile, although his tape did show a good athlete on the football field.  One capable both in coverage and in rushing the passer.  My standard argument is days 1-2 RAS should only be used to eliminate known outliers, but round 4 is kind of the gray area, especially early round 4 which is barely different than a late round 3 pick.  If you are still confident in the football skill evaluation here, I won't begrudge taking a risk.  Now ADG has had some injury issues, but in his time on the field, has looked like a solid contributor.

147. Khaled Kareem, Edge, Notre Dame - Kareem brings good size to the edge spot, but that's all we knew with him not testing.  Quality of competition wasn't a concern playing at Notre Dame, but he didn't exactly rack up a bunch of stats either.  I definitely wouldn't have made this pick with my current view.  Round 5, taking a risk with an incomplete profile, middling production.  Kareem hasn't been terrible in his first couple of years either, but it's hard to call him anything more than just a guy either. If you wanted an edge, the guy taken directly after him, Alton Robinson had a 8.94 RAS and ticked all the boxes except height at just a little under 6'3".  Robinson had 4 sacks in a reserve role as a rookie but only 1 this past season, although Kareem only has 1 career sack.

180.  Hakeem Adeniji, OL, Kansas - Adeniji actually tested pretty well athletically, showing up as a 79% athlete amongst tackles.  Based on his limited time there as a rookie, I think he profiles better as a tackle than guard after seeing him flounder as part of the failed RG experiment in 2021 where the Bengals were desperately looking for someone to step up.  He had elite vert/broad numbers and a respectable bench, and his 3 cone was well below average, so maybe they thought he'd have the strength for the inside.  Adeniji's near 34" arms and limited NFL tape look much more like a OT to me though.  With 4 new OL brought in this year through FA and the shiny new draft pick, he's definitely on the hot seat for a roster spot, and I think at tackle is his best shot to stay on the team.  I remember at the time I thought we should have double dipped at WR and taken Donovan Peoples-Jones (9.63 RAS) or Quez Watkins (7.41 RAS) to get another vertical threat.

215. Markus Bailey, LB, Purdue - Bailey didn't test because he was coming off a pretty significant injury from the college season, but by all accounts he was seen as a very good athlete.  I remember him having 2nd round buzz before he was hurt, and I did love this pick at the time.  Stacking risks with both injury and an incomplete athletic profile is something I might veer away from, but in rd 7, if you trust the athleticism you see on film enough, I wouldn't knock taking this swing too much.  Bailey did miss some games in year one, but last year did play in 16 games, even starting 3 with the Bengals injury issues at the position and wasn't terrible.  He's shown enough to where his roster spot this year is pretty safe.  In hindsight I probably would have been advocating for Carter Coughlin out of Minnesota and his 9.81 RAS if we wanted a LB, who has done pretty much nothing for the Giants so far.

Only allowing myself to change day 3 picks, trusting the Bengals evaluation for days 1-2, and limiting myself to the same position in each round, I think my retro-draft would have looked like this:

1. Joe Burrow
2. Tee Higgins
3. Logan Wilson
4. Mykal Walker, LB, Fresno State
5. Alton Robinson, Edge, Syracuse
6. Jon Runyan, OT, Michigan (Would have been hard for me to pass on DPJ's 44.5" vert or Quez Watkins 4.35 speed though)
7. Carter Coughlin, LB, Minnesota

In reality, this is the class that has spearheaded the Bengals revival and it all begins with Joe Burrow, but those first three picks were all home runs.  Beyond that we didn't get too much more than LB depth, although that depth still has decent upside.

[THE DUKE]

46 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

They usually carry 4 safeties and 6 CBs on the roster. It looks like 5 and 5 this year. Hill can backup Hilton in the slot. CTB can backup/challenge Apple. But we lost 3 CBs from last year in Waynes, Phillips, and Hargreaves. We've only added CTB. So we should have taken another CB in my opinion. Woolen is a 6-4 CB with 33" arms who ran a 4.26 at the combine. That's plenty of tools to work with. He could backup/challenge Flowers as the TE specialist in 2022. He could also have been a 2 way player with a few 9 routes for the offense. McCollum isn't quite as straight line fast as Woolen but is 6-2 with elite athleticism. 

I would have loved either of those picks, I even mocked McCollum to us in my final guess mock once I heard the Bengals had talked to him.  I guess i'm more ok with it because we at least got another elite athlete in Tycen Anderson and we didn't pass on Wollen/McCollum for another Fejedelem.  I expect that CB will be a day 1-2 pick again next year as well, even if we do extend Awuzie another 3-4 years after this year instead of letting him walk after 2023.

[INbengalfan]

RAS isn't new, it just changed the the reporting format.  They used to be the spiderweb layout format.  Those have been around awhile.

 

Duke, i appreciate the effort in posting past draft classes.  Good read.

[THE DUKE]

2 hours ago, INbengalfan said:

RAS isn't new, it just changed the the reporting format.  They used to be the spiderweb layout format.  Those have been around awhile.

 

Duke, i appreciate the effort in posting past draft classes.  Good read.

I know it's not new, but i'm paying more attention to it and how to use it as a tool than I did in the past, so I wanted to discuss it a little more.  It's been tracked since 1987.

[INbengalfan]

9 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

I know it's not new, but i'm paying more attention to it and how to use it as a tool than I did in the past, so I wanted to discuss it a little more.  It's been tracked since 1987.

I've always liked it as a tie breaker or tier mover in the pre-draft process.  If you like two guys who have similar tape, I take the better athlete.  If you rank in tiers, which is the thing, it can bump a guy or drop a guy one tier for me.