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Texans off-season thread


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13 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

BOB is such a baby, he can't even interact with the media after a loss. He just says "I have to coach better" or he goes all Trump on them. 

Maybe I'm just looking but I see a whole lot more subtext to the phrasing of his "it's on me" coachspeak.  Don't care enough to look for the specific quotes, but seems like there are plenty of "qualifiers" in the the carefully worded comments he repeats ad nauseum early, then little nuggets come out when he gets annoyed and goes off script.  Last week he made it very clear that "he is only in control of the players he is given and his job is to coach the players he is given."  This week his response to a question about whether it's the "quality of the players, plays, or the quality of the execution", you could see him biting his tongue, getting annoyed at the reporter, and finally offered "look, what do you want me to say here" then returning to his "i've gotta do better, we've gotta do better" 

O'Brien is from the Belichick, "don't give the media anything" school and I think just views pressers as a chore vs. a soapbox like a Rex Ryan or Jeff Fisher. Kubiak was always quick to accept blame for mistakes that were obviously on individual players with almost a wink and a smile, but you got the sense that he was pretty similarly even keeled in the locker room and pretty politically savvy in all his affairs.  O'Brien seems like he has a special padded room somewhere before and after pressers or meetings with the suits where he screams his true feelings and probably beats the hell out of one of those boxing dummies they sell at Academy. 

His tone right now seems like he's resigned to the divorce and knows Rick Smith is going to get everything anyway, so he's willing to just say "yes, honey it's all my fault" while muttering "my fault, I still married you after you blew two of my groomsmen."  We'll never get the satisfaction of him telling us to our faces, but nuggets like "I never even met Osweiler before we signed him" and various locker room screaming matches between the two both early and late in the season tend to find their way out once the parties no longer share the same employer.  Smith is too much of a weasel to ever actually have an open confrontation like Osweiler did, but Smith has been on no less of a mission than to get O'Brien out of here and I suspect we'll hear plenty once BOB slams the door behind him on Kirby.

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  • 1 month later...

I think we have a chance to have a 2011 like off-season.

Cut

LB Brian Cushing (retired?)

T Derek Newton (retired?)

T Kendall Lamm

 Restructure (reserved for players not going anywhere and who have high contracts with multiple years left on them)

DE JJ Watt

WR DeAndre Hopkins

 Trade

CB Kareem Jackson to New York Jets for T Ben Ijalana + QB Christian Hackenberg

 About $82Min cap space

 

Re-sign

WR Bruce Ellington (3 years, $4.5M, $1.5M SB)

G/C Greg Mancz (5 years, $15M, $5M SB)

SS Eddie Pleasant (3 years, $9M, $3M SB)

CB Jonathan Joseph (1 year, $5.5M)

RB Andre Ellington (2 years, $2M)

 Sign FAs (other teams)

QB EJ Manuel (OAK) (3 yrs, $4.5M, $1.5M SB)

TE Luke Willson (SEA) (3 yrs, $12M, $4.5M SB)

LT Nate Solder (NEP) (5 yrs, $70M, $40M G, $25M SB)

OLB/DE Chris Smith (CIN) (3 yrs, $4.5M)

CB Darryl Morris (NYG) (3 yrs, $3M)

S/CB Lamarcus Joyner (LAR) (4 yrs, $50M, $30MG, $20M SB)

CB Patrick Robinson (PHI) (3 yrs, $21M, $9M SB)

 

Draft

CB (young boundary CB)

T (swing)

RB/WR (young, fast, returner)

$$$ left over for extensions for McKinney & Clowney

 

 

2018 Projected Roster

QB – Watson // Manuel // Hackenberg

RB – Miller // Foreman // A. Ellington

FB – Prosch

X WR – Hopkins // Miller (or replacement)

Y WR – Fuller // B. Ellington // Thompson

TE – Fiedorowicz (or Willson) // Griffin // Anderson

LT – Solder // rookie

LG – Allen // Dorian Johnson

C – Martin // Fuller

RG – Mancz // Quessenberry

RT – Davenport // Ijalana

 

LDE – Watt // Covington

NT – Reader // Dunn

RDE – Heath // Watkins

LOLB – Mercilus // Scarlett

LILB – Cunningham // Cole

RILB – McKinney // Heeney 

ROLB – Clowney // Kamalu // Smith

LCB – Joseph // Morris

RCB – Robinson // rookie

NCB – Johnson // DeCoud

FS – Joyner // Moore

SS – Hal // Pleasant

K – Fairbairn // P – Lechler // LS – Weeks

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
2 hours ago, amazingandre said:

I would throw money at Malcolm Butler, Nate Solder, Jarvis Landry or Sammy Watkins, Vontae Davis, Patrick Omameh (OG), 

Solder, Omameh, Mancz, Martin, Davenport

Butler, Hal, Jackson, Davis, JJo

I'm not big on the receivers - I think Bruce Ellington looked great as a #3 and you can look to a lesser name like Taylor Gabriel, Marquis Lee or Kendall Wright (don't tell @Apollo Stallion I said that, ha!)

Everything else is spot on. I'd probably look for two CBs, try to bring in Nickell Robey-Coleman as a nickel/slot guy. If we're moving Jackson to S, then move him there FT.

I'd like to pick up a SS too - I thought Kenny Vaccaro was turning a corner this season prior to his injury, so I think he could be a low cost guy to rotate around with Jackson and Hal.

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I actually think Gaine is going to pull off a few trades nobody sees coming.  He and Brandon Beane pulled off 8 trades relatively quickly upon arriving in Buffalo including several rare player for player deals.  

  • Traded #10 overall pick to Chiefs (Mahomes) for their 2017 1st and 3rd and 2018 first.
  • Traded up to get Zay Jones in the 2nd and 5th rounder - gave Rams their 2nd and 3rd
  • Traded up to get Dion Dawkins (OT) in the 2nd - gave Falcons 3rd, and two 5th rounders.
  • Traded Cardale Jones to Chargers for conditional pick
  • Traded Sammy Watkins and their 2018 6th for EJ Gaines and Rams 2018 2nd  
  • Traded Ronald Darby to the Eagles for Jordan Matthews an their 2018 3rd
  • Traded Reggie Ragland to KC for their 2019 4th
  • Traded Kevon Seymour to Carolina for Kaelin Clay and a 7th rounder

I think Kevin Johnson is the most likely trade candidate as picking up his 5th year option seems unlikely.  He fits the Watkins profile as a constant injury risk that has shown flashes but no consistency, but would definitely be a sell-low situation likely netting either another teams "fallen out of favor" guy or maybe a day 3 pick which would be tough to swallow. If we aren't moving Kareem Jackson to safety, we need to trade him (and really paying him $9 million to play safety is pretty nuts) as he and Johnson are always going to be a problem together because neither belongs outside - like ever.

Call me crazy, but Benardrick McKinney could be a dark horse trade consideration as unlike Johnson we would get full value and we would avoid getting right back into a Cushing salary problem at ILB as he's going to command top 10-15ish ILB salary.  Cunningham has the makings of a star and I'm not so sure Dylan Cole is much of a step down from McKinney and ultimately may end up better as McKinney still glitches out on coverage too much. If trading McKinney gets us back into the 2nd round and a shot at a starting G or T, I'd take the deal, especially if Vrabel is still around to coach up a late round or another priority UDFA.  To be clear, I'd prefer to have him around, but we have precious few resources of any value to try to improve the o-line and he's one of them.  

I could also see us unloading Braxton Miller to the Browns for a middle-ish pick if only for the Ohio St connection and them missing Terrelle Pryor.  O'Brien clearly isn't going to maximise Miller's only upside skills (running/gadget throws), so I'd rather see us move him either for someone who can actually catch or someone who can return kicks.  It's a down year for WRs in the draft, so maybe one of the creative OCs would like the potential of some of those old Steelers Ward or Randal-El plays. 

BTW - Didn't include Cushing here as nobody is taking on the $7.6 and $9.5 million years left on his contract, so he's just going to get cut and have to pass thru waivers.   Ditto Jeff Allen and his $7.4 million.  Lamar Miller might have some trade value to a team that will actually use him out in space, but I'm not as sold on Foreman as everyone else seems to be.   Watson needs a credible running game to avoid us getting one dimensional which is going to ramp up the turnover tally and number of hits he takes.    

 

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i read an interesting idea. Sign Tyrod Taylor to be our #2 QB.

I love the idea. We can give him a decent deal, maybe even make him a top 5 paid back up QB, especially since Watson is on a really cheap rookie deal. He has the mobility to run the same system we put in place for Watson, not as good, but we wouldnt have to change up everything. 

plus with our new GM being from Buffalo it just makes sense.

Taylor has proven he can step in a be a starter, but i think hes also proven hes not going to be franchise QB. With vets like Eli Manning, Josh McCown and Alex Smith all available for teams who want to go with a proven starter, I dont see a team offering Taylor a short term starting role. 

all this assuming they release him. I dont see them taking an 18 million cap hit when they can cut him and save 10 million

I honestly dont see a better option than for us to have Watson/Taylor in the QB room

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11 minutes ago, amazingandre said:

I am all for the Tyrod signing as a backup. I would even be ok paying him top backup QB money knowing he could come in and keep us playing well.

All in all, I'm OK with Tyrod plus a rookie like Barrett - mobile guys who can run the RPO spread.

This being said, Tyrod looked horrible in the games I saw him in. I don't know if it's due to a WR unit with Zay Jones, Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews, or if he's that bad all of the time...

Still, probably better than Savage/Yates.

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On ‎11‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 7:17 PM, jch1911 said:

We should also be in top 10 in cap room this off-season (top 3 if we cut Cushing & Newton). Newton gives me pause, but he should have collected enough $$$ to be set by now.

 

LT Nate Solder (NEP) (5 years, $70M, $25M SB, $40M guaranteed – 1st 2 years fully guaranteed)  highest paid LT in the NFL by average annual salary & guaranteed $$$

CB / S Lamarcus Joyner (LAR) (4 years, $40M, $30M guaranteed, $20M signing bonus) top 7 highest paid safety & top 5 guaranteed $$$

Trade WR Braxton Miller to WSH for CB Quinton Dunbar (WSH) RFA

CB Johnson Bademosi (NEP) (3 years, $9M)

G/C Joe Looney (DAL) (3 years, $4.5M)

QB E.J. Manuel (OAK) (3 years, $7.5M)

OLB / DE Chris Smith (CIN) (3 years, $4.5M)

QB Jerod Evans (GB) PS (do this now!  he plays similar to DW4, but without the pedigree) 

WR Jeff Janis (GB) (3 years, $4.5M) or WR Jaron Brown (AZ) or WR Brice Butler (DAL) or WR Jordan Matthews (BUF) or WR Kendall Wright (CHI) or WR Robert Davis (WSH-PS)

CB / S Brandon Wilson (CIN) (PS)T Max Rich (SFA)

 NT Glen Antoine (SFA)

 

 

 

Draft

CB (outside CB) trade KJax + compensatory 3rd to move into bottom of 2nd to get player who falls

T (swing)

RB (young, fast, returner)

maybe NT

 

Re-sign

WR Bruce Ellington (3 years, $4.5M, $1.5M SB)

G/C Greg Mancz (5 years, $25M, $5M SB)

CB Johnathan Joseph (1 year, $5.5M - fully guaranteed)

 

Those moves will still leave us with enough to re-do contracts of Clowney & McKinney

 

Super Bowl or bust, baby!

 

I gotta say I like a lot of this, good thought put in.  A few thoughts I would add are:

- I think Derek Newton will be a very solid RG.  Not RT, but RG.  He played LG for a few years when we played tough interior D-lines like KC and played well.  I think coming off of the injury he would be a very solid RG, and I think he has shown real heart to rehab how he has and he will play tough. 

- Love the Jerod Evans pickup.  I second this and would do this immediately.  I like him during the draft and still like him now to compliment Watson.

- I don't think we get Solder.  I've even heard he may retire if he's not a Patriot next year.   For this reason, I think trading for Veldheer from the Cards would be a great one year rental/prove it deal.  We have the cap, they have the depth, and if healthy he is a very solid LT day one. 

- Don't know if we need him, but I think a very underrated CB is Aaron Colvin and Jax can't keep him with their other FAs. 

- I believe Mancz is an RFA, so we don't have to resign him yet.

- Unpopular but for the Price and Depth, I would absolutely resign Alfred Blue and XSF.  Foreman could not see the field in 2018 (a 33% chance he never does).  Our backup to Lamar Miller right now is Jordan Todman.  Blue is our best Special Teamer, and believe it or not was the #1 Pass Blocking RB in 2016 (I haven't seen this years stats yet).  He's serviceable and cheap and I think would be a huge value resigning for a cheap 2 year deal.  XSF is out of necessity.  He's a Pulling Guard and there aren't a lot out there.  When he had a remotely decent LT next to him he played well and I think whether it's Solder/Veldheer/someone else that LT is our highest priority and XSF will have a capable guy on both sides.  I think he plays well enough to knock out that resigning leaving a Vet Swing Tackle as our next highest priority.

- I like where your head is at with Joyner, but I just don't think we get him or Trumaine Johnson.  I want him, don't get me wrong, but they're in Los Angeles, on a team with a Franchise QB, and the Rams have plenty of money this offseason to sign them both and Sammy Watkins.  They have over $45M in Cap space, and that's before purging contracts of underperforming players.

- If CJF retires, I think an interesting player to look at is Crockett Gilmore.  He's the same size as CJF and drafted in the same round.  He played for an underperforming Ravens team and was asked to block a lot.   He is a good blocker, has the right size and will be a bargain player.  I think he could be that "out of nowhere player" that kills it with DeShaun Watson.

 - I like packaging KJax with a 3rd comp for a 2nd.  Well worth it for another team who is CB needy.

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22 minutes ago, QBin2017 said:

- I like where your head is at with Joyner, but I just don't think we get him or Trumaine Johnson.  I want him, don't get me wrong, but they're in Los Angeles, on a team with a Franchise QB, and the Rams have plenty of money this offseason to sign them both and Sammy Watkins.  They have over $45M in Cap space, and that's before purging contracts of underperforming players.

 

I dont think we are going to get either of them, but your explanation couldnt be more wrong. He would save SOO much money playing in texas vs California. We have a better franchise QB in Watson, and we also have plenty of money.

other than knowing our coach is incompetent, who wouldnt want to come play with a front 7 that includes Watt, Clowney, Mercilus and Mckinney? When healthy we should have a CB/S's dream front 7

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1 hour ago, QBin2017 said:

I like where your head is at with Joyner, but I just don't think we get him or Trumaine Johnson.  I want him, don't get me wrong, but they're in Los Angeles, on a team with a Franchise QB, and the Rams have plenty of money this offseason to sign them both and Sammy Watkins.  They have over $45M in Cap space, and that's before purging contracts of underperforming players.

I personally am pushing for Malcolm Butler and Kenny Vaccaro. I like Joyner and Johnson, but like you said - why leave what's working? 

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19 minutes ago, EliteTexan80 said:

I personally am pushing for Malcolm Butler and Kenny Vaccaro. I like Joyner and Johnson, but like you said - why leave what's working? 

My takes on top FA's at need position so far.

Corner

Trumaine Johnson (Rams) - a good, not great CB who is going to get paid like he's elite.  Probably shouldn't let good be the enemy of great considering we're upgrading from awful, but it's just going to hurt to pay a CB MORE than Bouye to not be as good, but young CBs on the open market are all gunnna get paid.  My biggest concern is his speed as 4.61 ain't pretty, but he's a lanky dude at 6' 2" which helps him make up ground.

Malcolm Butler (Pats) Over-rated!  Dude is in no way a #1 CB and to me is Dexter Jackson/Larry Brown III (Tampa and Dallas Super Bowl MVPs) as a guy who made his biggest play on the biggest stage and is going to get a huge contract out of it.  The Pats knew how limited he is which is why they spent their $ on Gilmore who can actually cover opposing #1's.  To be clear, I think Butler would improve our secondary, but to me he's a #2 who's going to bring in elite corner money and not be able to cover guys like Odell, TY, Cooks, Thomas/Sanders, etc.

Bashaud Breeland (Redskins) is a hard pass unless we move him to FS (which ain't happening at the salary he's going to command).  I think he's done well for his limited athletic talent, but I'd rather see us try to coach up a guy with elite speed than have another liability in man coverage which Breeland is since he's another 4.65+ plodder.

Kyle Fuller (Bears) - besides the fun of having two Kyle Fuller's on our team, the CB Kyle is an intriguing option.  By no means is he a #1 as his cover skills are spotty and more zone oriented, but he's also got speed for days.  To me, he would be a solid option if we move Jackson to FS as unlike KJ1, Fuller actually plays at his track speed.

EJ Gaines (Bills) - if there is a guy I'd put highest on the probability scale it would be Gaines considering Gaine traded for him just last year.  Like Fuller, he's fast but more of a zone corner/slot guy due to size, but he'd be an upgrade on Kareem if we move him to S.

Patrick Robinson (Eagles) - the dude thrived in Schwartz system, but only after some pretty ugly seasons in N.O. then bouncing around to SD & Indy. He shows how if you find the right CB for your system it can work and Robinson always had the measurables, but his play never met them.  There's some risk that he falls back into his lackadaisical habits, but if we think he's turned a corner, he could be a decent stop-gap measure at the right price.

Prince Amukamura (Bears) - I try not to mention too often that I wanted this guy over JJ Watt on draft day in 2011 as he had shut-down corner skills and speed and seemed destined for greatness.  His career has been far from it as he's got a Kevin Johnson track record of fragility. I suspect he's looking at another 1 year deal as his ankle injuries make him tough to invest in long term, but we could do far worse than throw $7 mil at him and hope he stays healthy.  I actually prefer just keeping Joseph in that scenario, but if we're moving on, Amukamara would be a decent replacement with upside. 

Vontae Davis (Colts) - could be a sneaky good signing as we'd be rolling back the clock a few years on Joseph and as long as he's healthy the dude's got the speed/cover skills combo we need.  There is some Ed Reed-ish concerns here as he seems like a handful as things did not end well in Indy, but coming back with a grudge may not be bad.  His brother Vernon doesn't seem to age, so know reason to think Vontae is slowing down anytime soon.

Aaron Colvin (Jags) - no.  zone okay. slow not ok. Bouye/Ramsey connection will get him a nice payday, but not a fit for us.

Safety

Morgan Burnett (packers) - I've previously mentioned that he is my #1 FA target.  Only knock is that he get's dinged up a bit, but that's the knock on Jonathan Joseph, our best signing ever.  Perfect combo of speed and cover skills for this secondary - he's a mistake eraser.

Kenny Vaccarro (Saints) - I like him as a player, but I don't think he fits our needs as he's more of a box/run stopper than coverage/speed guy.  Joyner fits the bill as a S with slot/corner coverage skills, but he's also 5' 8" and not real fast, so he's not exactly the answer I'm looking for with a safety who can actually cover deep and outside if we stick with the cover 4 stuff.

Eric Reid (49ers).  Probably my 2nd choice as he checks all the boxes as a lightning fast and tall SS that has flown under the radar since the 49ers have stunk.  Will be an interesting test case as he's pretty much Kaep without the notoriety since he was the 2nd to kneel, but if McNair can actually do what's best for the team and not what's best for his right wing politics, this should be our next SS.

O-Line

Andrew Norwell (Saints) - the top Guard out there, but as a 26 year old Pro Bowler he's going to be getting a LARGE paycheck  ($60 mil+). Probably the ONLY true impact O-Lineman around, so definitely someone to strongly consider.

Nate Solder (Pats) - the top T but he's 30 and I'm usually not too big on players the Pats let walk altho Wilfork was a nice bridge to Reader. I think like most Pats his reputation has the Brady bump, but he'd at least get us close to Duane Brown level.

Ryan Jenson (Vikings) - the top C who had a career season in his walk year.  Unfortunately, we picked a bad year to need o-lineman, so we might need to get creative and move Martin over to G.  I think Martin's struggles were magnified by the two terrible football players next to him, but we need starting caliber o-lineman period and Jenson is one.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Apollo Stallion said:

Morgan Burnett (packers) - I've previously mentioned that he is my #1 FA target.  Only knock is that he get's dinged up a bit, but that's the knock on Jonathan Joseph, our best signing ever.  Perfect combo of speed and cover skills for this secondary - he's a mistake eraser.

One thing to put out there - we're both pretty big on the analytics of PFF; This past season, Burnett was ranked 46th among all S. Tied with none other than our very own Eddie Pleasant.

Now, Burnett is a better player, but this is reason for concern.

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17 hours ago, EliteTexan80 said:

One thing to put out there - we're both pretty big on the analytics of PFF; This past season, Burnett was ranked 46th among all S. Tied with none other than our very own Eddie Pleasant.

Now, Burnett is a better player, but this is reason for concern.

Yeah, kind of a weird season up there in GB.  Not sure how PFF accounts for players playing out of position, but Burnett was forced into playing CB the last 5 or 6 games because the Packers lost 4 dbacks to season ending injuries and Burnett himself was playing hurt a good chunk of the season .  Rating a safety forced into lining up against WR's vs. S's covering RBs & TEs or doubling WRs isn't exactly a fair comparison.  If anything, that tells you how good Burnett is in coverage as a safety bumping UP the ladder to CB is exceedingly rare and would be out of the question for 90% of safeties in the league. 

To be clear, I don't even think Burnett is one of the best safeties in the league as he's never been to a Pro Bowl, but he is a consistently solid player who's strength is in coverage which is absolutely critical for THIS team because we don't have corners that can cover #1s or #2s without help, especially the fast ones. We seemed to spend most of the season in cover 4 which requires our safeties to be able to cover the entire middle back half of the field on their own which was a laughable strategy with Gilchrist (dumb) or Moore (slow) back there.  Neither Hal or Gilchrist could read play action to save their lives leaving K. Johnson exposed way too much and Burnett is a film room junkie who called the Packers plays and this secondary needs someone besides Joseph who actually knows what's coming and how to react (and can show others).  I'd much rather spend $35 million on a top 10-15ish safety who can greatly assist all of our corners in coverage + run support, than $60-$70 million on Butler, T. Johnson, Breeland, or most of the other corners on the market who you'd never trust on an island outside and are going to need help from a safety themselves. 

I'm also WAY more comfortable with Cunningham's ability to cover TE's and RB's than Cushing/McKinney's horrific coverage, so I think a guy with Burnett's coverage skill and ability to read coverages could bring back the opportunistic turnovers that were completely missing this season and got a mediocre Quintin Demps 6 ints back there in '16. If we don't bring Joseph back (which I think would be a mistake) it is that much MORE essential that we have a veteran presence back there.  I think the biggest failing of the Rick Smith era is that he failed to understand the dynamics of a secondary and how the pieces fit together aside from a year or two there has always been some massive hole.  Even when we had 2 passable safeties, we didn't have a LB who could cover so TE's and RBs would roast us, so having the flexibility of a corner who tackles like a safety (Kareem) and safety who covers like a corner (Burnett) and a LB who covers like a safety (Cunningham) we'd finally have the flexibility to adapt to gameflow and opponent.   You can't ignore run stopping from safeties especially with the Jags and Titans on the upswing, but if the offense operates even close to where it was with Watson, we are going to be sitting in a whole lot more dime and quarters protecting leads and that means 3 safeties who can cover and we have 1 mediocre one (Hal).  I'd draft a LB/S hybrid type late to groom as our 4th safety which should also be of great benefit to our coverage teams.

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On ‎1‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 11:55 PM, EliteTexan80 said:

One thing to put out there - we're both pretty big on the analytics of PFF; This past season, Burnett was ranked 46th among all S. Tied with none other than our very own Eddie Pleasant.

Now, Burnett is a better player, but this is reason for concern.

PFF's analytics can be SO terrible though.  I get it though, you have to use something.  It just fails to take a lot of major information into consideration.  Wasn't it PFF that had Lamar Miller as the 34th best RB this year?  It doesn't factor in our terrible O-line, or that with Watson he was a fantastic RB.  

 

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