Fantasy Football 2022 General Discussion

[BayRaider]

This is from the winner of BestBall Mania I two years ago. 1M winner. Talks about how important stacks are (having a QB and WR of the same team), and how stacking Week 17 matchups is also important. For example, a QB and his WR1 and WR2, and the other teams WR1 and TE (if elite TE), and that game ends up 38-34, you might just win everything. 

[BayRaider]

I have a lot of Russell Wilson/Courtland Sutton/Tim Patrick/Skyy Moore/Ronald Jones rosters. That game just screams shootout to me. 

The most stacked Week 17 game is Bengals/Bills but I don’t think it will be as high scoring as people think. Plus the pieces of those offenses are way too expensive. 

[NYRaider]

17 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Outside of Strong, Tony, and Vaughn, these guys are all taken every bestball draft if 20 rounds. Vaughn is terrible beyond words, Patriors sit rookie RB’s and have Harris/Stevenson above Strong. 

Basically, one of the ways to beat an 800,000 user tournament is having a unique guy that isn’t getting drafted. 

I’ll give another example. Treadwell was the Jags #1 WR the second half of the season. This year he is #5 on the depth chart and no one and their mama is drafting him. First week of camp, Treadwell is getting a vast majority of the targets. Him and Lawrence have crazy good chemistry, and are super good friends. 

Therefore, IF you have Trevor Lawrence, Treadwell in the 20th Round for the Lawrence/Treadwell stack is a good gamble. 

A good way to be ahead of the curve is pretend to be a fan of all 32 teams and find a podcast dedicated to all 32 teams, and see who is standing out in camp. And IF they are standing out in camp, do they have the draft capital OR athletic profile to support drafting them?   You’re looking at least drafted in the top five rounds, or a RAS of 9.00 and above. Either or. Preferably both. 

If it’s a 6th Round Pick with a RAS of below 9, I’m staying away. I don’t care how good he looks in camp. 

Another example is Elijah Mitchell, only a 6th Rounder, BUT a crazy good RAS of 9.44. And looked great in camp. Many sharps/sharks took Mitchell in their final round of bestball drafts and won big. 

Find those athletic 6th/7th rounders no one is drafting is always a huge positive for you. 

More known guys that have higher draft capital but need an injury to be relevant as well, such as Calvin Austin. If one of the Top 3 Steeler WR’s go down, Austin was a great 20th Round flier. In big bestball tournaments, sometimes you have to bet on injuries. 

Andy Reid literally doesn't use rookies and he's currently 5th on their depth chart heading into camp.

[NYRaider]

21 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Of those listed, Mack, Moss, and Wilson have all been gone long before the last two rounds of every bestball I have done.  Those others all have the same question marks and road blocks in front of them.  Strong has Harris, Stevenson, White, JJ Taylor, and Kevin Harris in front of him and a coach who never plays rookies regularly and also never plays RBs consistent week to week.  Eno Benjamin is at best the third RB on that roster and has rookies trying to take his place.  Evans is the third back on the DC with no special traits.  He may get some shots due to injuries but doesnt have upside IMO.  Vaughn I like as a dart but he too has a huge hill to climb and rookies with stronger skills than him battling for snaps.  Tony Jones had a chance last year and did nothing.  If Kamara is suspended than he has more potential value but they also added vets in Malcolm Brown and a rookie to battle for a roster spot.  Breida is a decent dart to get starts if Saquan goes down but he also doesnt do anything special so not an ideal bestball option but can see it because of depth charts.  

Obviously all of these darts and 6th/7th RBs on Best ball teams are going to be guys battling for roster spots.  So grabbing guys who have elite traits (Pacheco had tied for the fastest 40 at the combine) makes sense.  There can be an argument for any of them, and unlike BayRaider I dont see him unseating the starters.  But if there are injuries or even if he gets a few snaps, he has potential to break a big one and score some points. 

I'd wager that Strong, Eno, Vaughn, Jones, and Breida all make 53 man rosters and Pacheco doesn't though. Hard to win in best ball when you have practice squad players that won't even play a snap.

Saquan hasn't been healthy for years and Bredia will be their primary backup. Devin Singletary isn't special at all in terms of talent but produced in Daboll's offense. 

Edited July 30, 2022 by NYRaider

[squire12]

15 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I have the #4 pick in a non-ppr league, I expect top-3 to be JT-Henry-Ekeler so i have to figure out if CMC is worth the risk

Non ppr, Harris probably gets the nod

[Tommy_C]

Thoughts on my Team-  Start up Dynasty, 10 team, Super-flex PPR. 5th pick.

Starters
QB - Joe Burrow Cin
RB - Javonte Williams Den
RB - Cam Akers LAR
WR - Tee Higgins Cin
WR - Jerry Jeudy Den
TE - Dalton Shultz Dal
Flex - David Montgomery Chi
Flex - Brandon Aiyuk SF
SUPER Flex - Trey Lance SF
K - Brandon McManus Den
IDP Flex - De'Vondre Campbell (LB) GB
IDP Flex - Eric Kendricks (LB) Min

Bench 
QB Baker Mayfield Car
RB Darrell Henderson LAR
RB Tony Pollard Dal
RB Rhmondre Stevenson NE
RB Isaiah Spiller LAC
WR Isaiah McKenzie Buf
WR Allen Lazard GB
WR Drake London Atl
WR Treylon Burks Ten
WR Jalen Tolbert Dal
TE Hayden Hurst Cin
IDB Jeremy Chinn (S/LB) Car

Taxi Squad
QB Matt Corral Car
RB Keaonty Ingram Ari
 

[Dr LBC]

Just got notification, I've got the 10th pick (out of 12) in my Big Money redraft this year (standard scoring, limited bench).

That pretty much just confirmed my draft strategy of definitely going RB-RB with my first two picks, barring some absolutely ridiculous scenario that's not going to happen because of there being at least 2 regular autodrafters picking ahead of me, wherein Cooper Kupp falls to me in the R1 10-hole.

And I'm actually completely fine with this.  I can nail down my main two starting RB's early (only would have a WR/RB flex to worry about as far as starting spots go) and I can play the minor-reaches-as-needed game on WR's to accommodate getting the guys I'm particularly sweet on this upcoming season (in particular due to our scoring format) over most of rounds 3-7 with 1-2 RB's sprinkled in where value and opportunity present itself.  I'm perfectly fine waiting until at least Rd. 8 for a QB, possibly later.

The thing I'm really toying with right now, because I'm likely going a floor play and a ceiling play with my first two RB's, is whether I'm willing to burn the 3rd pick of the 2nd round on Kamara if he's there (and he probably should be).  The more and more things unfold, the more it seems the league is going to be content to let his legal stuff playout before making any suspension decisions and will likely end up kicking that can down the road to 2023.  Which means AK would have Top 5 RB upside at Top 12 RB cost.  I was way more comfortable with this strat when I was thinking I'd end up with a middle of the round pick like I usually do.

But when looking at the idea of an Aaron Jones (or James Conner)/Alvin Kamara backfield (where I might re-evaluate if Chubb or Javonte fall to the 2nd round) vs an Jones(Conner)/Swift or Fournette backfield.

[BayRaider]

I knew all those 20th Round fliers on KJ Hamler would pay off… feels like a dream

[101Raider]

2 hours ago, Dr LBC said:

Just got notification, I've got the 10th pick (out of 12) in my Big Money redraft this year (standard scoring, limited bench).

That pretty much just confirmed my draft strategy of definitely going RB-RB with my first two picks, barring some absolutely ridiculous scenario that's not going to happen because of there being at least 2 regular autodrafters picking ahead of me, wherein Cooper Kupp falls to me in the R1 10-hole.

And I'm actually completely fine with this.  I can nail down my main two starting RB's early (only would have a WR/RB flex to worry about as far as starting spots go) and I can play the minor-reaches-as-needed game on WR's to accommodate getting the guys I'm particularly sweet on this upcoming season (in particular due to our scoring format) over most of rounds 3-7 with 1-2 RB's sprinkled in where value and opportunity present itself.  I'm perfectly fine waiting until at least Rd. 8 for a QB, possibly later.

The thing I'm really toying with right now, because I'm likely going a floor play and a ceiling play with my first two RB's, is whether I'm willing to burn the 3rd pick of the 2nd round on Kamara if he's there (and he probably should be).  The more and more things unfold, the more it seems the league is going to be content to let his legal stuff playout before making any suspension decisions and will likely end up kicking that can down the road to 2023.  Which means AK would have Top 5 RB upside at Top 12 RB cost.  I was way more comfortable with this strat when I was thinking I'd end up with a middle of the round pick like I usually do.

But when looking at the idea of an Aaron Jones (or James Conner)/Alvin Kamara backfield (where I might re-evaluate if Chubb or Javonte fall to the 2nd round) vs an Jones(Conner)/Swift or Fournette backfield.

At that pick I’d pass on Kamara.

Jones, Fournette, Swift and Barkley are all guys I’m taking over him even if he plays a full year. 

 

[BayRaider]

1 hour ago, 101Raider said:

At that pick I’d pass on Kamara.

Jones, Fournette, Swift and Barkley are all guys I’m taking over him even if he plays a full year. 

 

None of those four will be in second round. 

[101Raider]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

None of those four will be in second round. 

Hmm… not sure if I agree with this statement. Picked a random site and this was their average ADPs on Fantasy Pros:
Swift 12

Barkley: 21

Jones:23

Fournette: 25

In my early league, Jones went at the turn, Swift a few picks later, Fournette went late 2nd and Barkley middle of the 3rd.

 

 

 

 

 

[BayRaider]

54 minutes ago, 101Raider said:

Hmm… not sure if I agree with this statement. Picked a random site and this was their average ADPs on Fantasy Pros:
Swift 12

Barkley: 21

Jones:23

Fournette: 25

In my early league, Jones went at the turn, Swift a few picks later, Fournette went late 2nd and Barkley middle of the 3rd.

 

 

 

 

 

Fantasy Pros ADP tends to be pretty friendly. I’ve done like 40 drafts and none of those guys have fallen to the 3rd in the past few weeks except Fournette due to the weight reports, but now he’s back up to pick 19-20. 

Barkley once in a blue moon falls to the turn or 3.2. 

[Dr LBC]

   ...

Edited August 3, 2022 by Dr LBC
Don't mind me.

[NYRaider]

In my main redraft league I'm picking at the 1.12 spot, I want Adams/Deebo with my first two picks.

[Dr LBC]

19 hours ago, 101Raider said:

At that pick I’d pass on Kamara.

Jones, Fournette, Swift and Barkley are all guys I’m taking over him even if he plays a full year. 

 

Based off my league's scoring format, I have all the above projected for the following:

Kamara: 142.1 pts
Fournette: 130.1 pts
Swift: 124.2 pts
Barkley: 119.3 pts

Now I've got Jones at a projection of 134.4, but he's also at a 0.8 less variant-risk to reach his projection than Kamara is - so for what amounts to the difference of a rushing TD and 40 yards on the season, I'm willing to consider him a safer floor play because he's considerably more likely to play a full slate of games.

The others I really don't see as offering the kind of upside that Kamara would.  I have Conner projected for 149.3 pts but that's being modest in my projection for regression towards the mean in the pay-dirt department this season - though I really don't see a whole lot of competition for rushing TD opportunities given up, barring some variance towards Kyler's direction or maybe the odd sweep play to Hollywood.  His injury history (and last season being the lone instance he managed to stay healthy in his pro career) are presenting the biggest risk to me not having him as a complete lock over Jones - but that risk would put me off then turning around and making the risk on Kamara as well - I'd likely be hoping for Jones to make it back to me in the 2nd and content to settle with Fournette as a worst-case-scenario.