Fantasy Football 2022 General Discussion

[BayRaider]

Basically CMC’s worth the risk/reward. Cook does not offer enough upside to counter the risk of 1. Injury Prone, 2. Pass Heavy Offense. 

[BayRaider]

@holt_bruce81 Just so you’re not one of those guys who loves everyone, give me 5-8 players who are complete fades, that you will own zero shares of, in the Top 9 Rounds. And give me at least 4 names in the Top 5 Rounds, and at least one in the 1st Round. 

[holt_bruce81]

3 hours ago, BayRaider said:

@holt_bruce81 Just so you’re not one of those guys who loves everyone, give me 5-8 players who are complete fades, that you will own zero shares of, in the Top 9 Rounds. And give me at least 4 names in the Top 5 Rounds, and at least one in the 1st Round. 

Sure, mind you I’ve done zero drafts so far. I have 3 coming up over the weekend but don’t see myself owning any shares of these guys….

1. Zeke Elliott 
2. David Montgomery 
3. Antonio Gibson 
4. Josh Jacobs 
5. Amari Cooper
6. DK Metcalf
7. Miles Sanders
8. Cam Akers 
9. Najee Harris 

6 players who I’m thinking about taking a round or 2 earlier just so I get them…

1. Rashod Bateman 
2. AJ Dillon
3. Allen Robinson  
4. Darrell Henderson 
5. Allen Lazard
6. Brandon Aiyuk 

I havent found my late round steal yet this year. Might be either Skyy Moore or Isiah Pacheco. 

Edited August 21, 2022 by holt_bruce81

[Forge]

18 hours ago, BayRaider said:

In a 12 Team League, your chances of winning are 8.33%. 

Winning 8% of your leagues means you’re an average player. 

Winning 9% of your leagues means you’re a slightly above average player. 

Winning 10% of your leagues means you’re an above average player. 

Winning 11% of your leagues means you’re a great player. 

Winning 12% of your leagues means you’re an outstanding player. 

And 13% has become almost unheard of these days with how competitive fantasy has become. 

Obviously this doesn’t apply to co-worker and friend leagues, where you should probably be winning at least 25% of the time. 

I think this is kind of  flawed from the start. I haven't won my big money league in years. Just like winning the super bowl for real, it relies a bit on luck. These are my last few years in my big money league:  

• Lost first round playoff game - 1st in points scored for the season
• Lost championship game - 2nd in points scored for the season
• Lost first round of playoffs - 2nd in points scored
• Lost championship game - 1st in points scored 

I am the best player in that league hands down, and they would admit it without hesitation. 

These percentages might make sense if the year to year sample size is big enough, but I doubt that it is for the great majority of people. If you play 3 leagues, this is just too isolated. 

 

 

[Forge]

12 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Sure, mind you I’ve done zero drafts so far. I have 3 coming up over the weekend but don’t see myself owning any shares of these guys….

1. Zeke Elliott 
2. David Montgomery 
3. Antonio Gibson 
4. Josh Jacobs 
5. Amari Cooper
6. DK Metcalf
7. Miles Sanders
8. Cam Akers 
9. Najee Harris 

6 players who I’m thinking about taking a round or 2 earlier just so I get them…

1. Rashod Bateman 
2. AJ Dillon
3. Allen Robinson  
4. Darrell Henderson 
5. Allen Lazard
6. Brandon Aiyuk 

I havent found my late round steal yet this year. Might be either Skyy Moore or Isiah Pacheco. 

Honestly, I don't hate a Miles Sander pick if you are getting him around 85. He should (hopefully) get some positive touchdown regression and that would be 40-45 picks after guys like Jacobs / Gibson / Montgomery. With 3-5 touchdowns, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he finishes in a comparable range as those guys and at 85 you're (I hope) drafting him as an RB3, non flex player. 

[squire12]

17 minutes ago, Forge said:

I think this is kind of  flawed from the start. I haven't won my big money league in years. Just like winning the super bowl for real, it relies a bit on luck. These are my last few years in my big money league:  

• Lost first round playoff game - 1st in points scored for the season
• Lost championship game - 2nd in points scored for the season
• Lost first round of playoffs - 2nd in points scored
• Lost championship game - 1st in points scored 

I am the best player in that league hands down, and they would admit it without hesitation. 

These percentages might make sense if the year to year sample size is big enough, but I doubt that it is for the great majority of people. If you play 3 leagues, this is just too isolated. 

 

 

Well..... speak for yourself.

7 leagues each last 2 years.

4 titles and 3 othe 2nd place finishes 

4 /14 titles!!!!

[Forge]

6 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Well..... speak for yourself.

7 leagues each last 2 years.

4 titles and 3 othe 2nd place finishes 

4 /14 titles!!!!

I think you'd have to play around this many to really make it worthwhile as a point of reference. I would hope that you would win at least 1 of 7, though there is some volatility.   I feel like most people don't play 7 leagues though (that could be really off though, I've never done research on it). I play in 2. One is a dynasty league that I just started, and one is my main money league. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I feel like median ppg is a more accurate representation of how well you did if you’re really trying to have a pissing contest here. My championships were never fielded by my best teams

[BayRaider]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

I think this is kind of  flawed from the start. I haven't won my big money league in years. Just like winning the super bowl for real, it relies a bit on luck. These are my last few years in my big money league:  

• Lost first round playoff game - 1st in points scored for the season
• Lost championship game - 2nd in points scored for the season
• Lost first round of playoffs - 2nd in points scored
• Lost championship game - 1st in points scored 

I am the best player in that league hands down, and they would admit it without hesitation. 

These percentages might make sense if the year to year sample size is big enough, but I doubt that it is for the great majority of people. If you play 3 leagues, this is just too isolated. 

 

 

I’m sure it’s geared more towards the players that play hundreds of leagues. And playing against professionals, not casuals like friend/co-worker leagues. 

Edited August 21, 2022 by BayRaider

[BayRaider]

13 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Sure, mind you I’ve done zero drafts so far. I have 3 coming up over the weekend but don’t see myself owning any shares of these guys….

1. Zeke Elliott 
2. David Montgomery 
3. Antonio Gibson 
4. Josh Jacobs 
5. Amari Cooper
6. DK Metcalf
7. Miles Sanders
8. Cam Akers 
9. Najee Harris 

6 players who I’m thinking about taking a round or 2 earlier just so I get them…

1. Rashod Bateman 
2. AJ Dillon
3. Allen Robinson  
4. Darrell Henderson 
5. Allen Lazard
6. Brandon Aiyuk 

I havent found my late round steal yet this year. Might be either Skyy Moore or Isiah Pacheco. 

I agree with 1 through 5 and also 7. 

I’m ok with Metcalf this year. Don’t love him, don’t hate him. 

I like Cam this year, although don’t love him. 

I love Najee this year and think he has RB1, like RB #1 not Top 12, potential. 

As for the guys you like, I like all of those guys except Lazard. I mean I like Lazard but his price tag is way too expensive. I mean it’s likely Lazard leads the Packers WR in targets, but not by much. Also, don’t reach two rounds on anybody. You basically are losing all value on your breakout player. 

[Forge]

10 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

As for the guys you like, I like all of those guys except Lazard. I mean I like Lazard but his price tag is way too expensive. I mean it’s likely Lazard leads the Packers WR in targets, but not by much. Also, don’t reach two rounds on anybody. You basically are losing all value on your breakout player. 

I'm seeing lazard go after pick 100 most of the time? What's too expensive for you? 

The way that the Packers are currently constructed I'm most bullish on Jones more so than anyone else (in ppr at least), but lazard at like pick 110 as a wr5 is fine by me (he went 107 in a mock I did earlier today)

[BayRaider]

Just now, Forge said:

I'm seeing lazard go after pick 100 most of the time? What's too expensive for you? 

The way that the Packers are currently constructed I'm most bullish on Jones more so than anyone else (in ppr at least), but lazard at like pick 110 as a wr5 is fine by me (he went 107 in a mock I did earlier today)

Anywhere I have been drafting, Underdog, DraftKings, etc, Lazard goes around pick 70. While Doubs goes around 130 and Watson around 155. I’d way rather take my shot on one of the rookies. 

Are you doing real drafts or mocks? Mocks aren’t really accurate. 

[BayRaider]

Basically I only have one Lazard share out of 99 drafts, which was back in May in the 11th Round. 

Right now he goes in the 6th/7th every site im on. There is no way I can ever pick Lazard over guys like Elijah Moore, Drake London, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, and even Hunter Renfrow. If Lazard’s ADP was in the 100’s, I would have wayyyy more of him. 

[Forge]

15 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Anywhere I have been drafting, Underdog, DraftKings, etc, Lazard goes around pick 70. While Doubs goes around 130 and Watson around 155. I’d way rather take my shot on one of the rookies. 

Are you doing real drafts or mocks? Mocks aren’t really accurate. 

His average draft position on most sites is well below that. If he were going around pick 70 regularly, I would assume his average pick selection would be closer to that.

Mocks have been plenty accurate in my experience as the general public usually drafts against rankings,  adjusted for game type (ie, QBs are going to go a lot earlier in 6pt td, super flex and 2qb leagues so you wouldn't use a traditional ADP in those instances).  

But adp can vary pretty wildly by site. Wouldn't be surprised if he had a significant difference in a less casual site like underdog (compared to ESPN / Yahoo)

[BayRaider]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

His average draft position on most sites is well below that. If he were going around pick 70 regularly, I would assume his average pick selection would be closer to that.

Mocks have been plenty accurate in my experience as the general public usually drafts against rankings,  adjusted for game type (ie, QBs are going to go a lot earlier in 6pt td, super flex and 2qb leagues so you wouldn't use a traditional ADP in those instances).  

But adp can vary pretty wildly by site. Wouldn't be surprised if he had a significant difference in a less casual site like underdog (compared to ESPN / Yahoo)

His ADP on DraftKings is 68 and Underdog is 72. 
 
If you can get him in the 100’s in your home league, go for it. 

Doesn’t make sense in the 60’s or 70’s though. Like I said, I could never pull the trigger on Lazard over guys like Elijah Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk (who lead the Jags in targets by far), Drake London, etc.