Fantasy Football 2022 General Discussion

[tyler735]

40 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Same coaches but different players usually means the offense is different.  Thomas is back, Olave and Landry are both new and Jameis isn't Brees.  Jameis has targeted RBs on 16% of his passes in his career and 47% to outside WRs.  Brees was at 27% to RBs since 2009.  The offense reduced RB targets under Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater, so it may be fair to say, the RB check downs were a product of Brees style and comfort.  Jameis doesn't share that desire, and although they may want him to, he will not change who he is regularly.  Kamara had 67 targets last year, a career low (only played 13 games but had 97 in 14 games two years before)which turned into 47 receptions.  His target share will have to go up significantly scheme wise, with a QB who does not check it down historically, for him to hit 80 catches again.  Especially when the WR options have improved so much.   Not to mention injuries. I just dont see it with Kamara, especially since he has never had over 1,000 yards rushing and was TD dependent rushing the ball for value. 

If Jameis doesn’t play within the system, it will be the Andy Dalton show before long. The Saints have been vocal over the past few years about Jameis not being the “gunslinger” type QB he was with Tampa. They are trying to make him pick his moments more and play within the system. 

Last season we saw a much different style of play from Jameis with the Saints than during his time with Tampa. I do expect them to give him some more freedom this season given the pass catchers he has, but still won’t change our overall offensive identity too much from our days of Kamara and Thomas dominating the volume of the offense.

In the first 5 games of the season last year (Jameis tore his ACL in week 6), Winston targeted Kamara 33 times. Kamara caught 25 of those targets with 4 receiving touchdowns in those 5 games with Jameis starting last year. If those numbers continue anywhere near that over an entire season Kamara is certainly right around his career averages as a pass catcher. 
 

I would also add that when Bridgwater took over as a starter for several games in 2019, he started 4 games where he and Kamara were both playing. In those 4 games, Kamara had 28 targets and 25 receptions, which is a massive target share over a 4 game stretch.

Taysom Hill is the only QB that Kamara has struggled with in the pass game and that is easily explained by 2 things. First being that Hill is a terrible QB. Second being Hill is much more likely to just take off and run rather than utilize a check down.

Edited September 15, 2022 by tyler735

[Sllim Pickens]

32 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

If Jameis doesn’t play within the system, it will be the Andy Dalton show before long. The Saints have been vocal over the past few years about Jameis not being the “gunslinger” type QB he was with Tampa. They are trying to make him pick his moments more and play within the system. 

Last season we saw a much different style of play from Jameis with the Saints than during his time with Tampa. I do expect them to give him some more freedom this season given the pass catchers he has, but still won’t change our overall offensive identity too much from our days of Kamara and Thomas dominating the volume of the offense.

In the first 5 games of the season last year (Jameis tore his ACL in week 6), Winston targeted Kamara 33 times. Kamara caught 25 of those targets with 4 receiving touchdowns in those 5 games with Jameis starting last year. If those numbers continue anywhere near that over an entire season Kamara is certainly right around his career averages as a pass catcher. 
 

I would also add that when Bridgwater took over as a starter for several games in 2019, he started 4 games where he and Kamara were both playing. In those 4 games, Kamara had 28 targets and 25 receptions, which is a massive target share over a 4 game stretch.

Taysom Hill is the only QB that Kamara has struggled with in the pass game and that is easily explained by 2 things. First being that Hill is a terrible QB. Second being Hill is much more likely to just take off and run rather than utilize a check down.

 

Last year, the best WR for Jameis to throw to in the first 5 weeks was Marquez Calloway who is the #4 or 5 this year.  There was nobody to throw to.  Game one showed the difference.  Plenty of other options and in turn, a reduction from Kamara.  Last year Jameis checked it down on third down 1 time.  The fewest in the league.  He will snot be a gunslinger but he also will not look at the RBs.  There will be Landry, Thomas or Olave over the middle which will attract more targets. 

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

 

Last year, the best WR for Jameis to throw to in the first 5 weeks was Marquez Calloway who is the #4 or 5 this year.  There was nobody to throw to.  Game one showed the difference.  Plenty of other options and in turn, a reduction from Kamara.  Last year Jameis checked it down on third down 1 time.  The fewest in the league.  He will snot be a gunslinger but he also will not look at the RBs.  There will be Landry, Thomas or Olave over the middle which will attract more targets. 

I side more with you in that I don't think that Kamara is that top tier rb1 any more. What I'm trying to figure out is where he's going to nestle in, which is why I'm buying the dip if I can find him cheap enough. I think people are maybe overcompensating and going too far in how far that they are out on him. I know the guy in my big money league wants nothing to do with him, and I know others are very concerned. I keep trying to find a trade to make it work in my big money league if only because I think ultimately he's an RB2. 

I offered Henderson for Kamara trying to buy on the dip of Kamara and sell on the peak of Henderson, but he's not that far out on Kamara yet lol. 

[tyler735]

45 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

 

Last year, the best WR for Jameis to throw to in the first 5 weeks was Marquez Calloway who is the #4 or 5 this year.  There was nobody to throw to.  Game one showed the difference.  Plenty of other options and in turn, a reduction from Kamara.  Last year Jameis checked it down on third down 1 time.  The fewest in the league.  He will snot be a gunslinger but he also will not look at the RBs.  There will be Landry, Thomas or Olave over the middle which will attract more targets. 

If you want to base your opinion off 1 game, be my guest. I’m happily taking the larger sample sizes I’ve highlighted in this thread with years of evidence to go off to form an opinion that Kamara is going to still play a large role in the pass game with the same offensive coordinator he’s had his entire career. Especially considering Kamara was dealing with an injury in said 1 game sample size.
 

There’s no reason to think the system has drastically changed. Kamara even while injured still had 3 catches/4 targets and the head coach reiterated that Kamara limited in the game because of his rib injury. I mean literally just 1-2 more targets and he’s right around his pace for his usual target share in his career. He’s going to get his chances in the pass game and be a focal point of the offense. Guess we will have to wait and see what happens in the coming weeks.

I’ll just leave this nugget since we were going on about Winston’s mindset when it comes to throwing to his RB:

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by tyler735

[BayRaider]

4 hours ago, NYRaider said:

CMC's week one performance is also a little concerning, imo. When he was a fantasy god he was getting an absurd amount of targets. Baker checks down at one of the lowest rates in the league and they have two legit WRs on the outside this year. 

Carolina actually had the second lowest amount of plays Week 1. If that increases to middle of the pack, he has 30+ points basically. 

[NYRaider]

Michael Pittman with a DNP today

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Carolina actually had the second lowest amount of plays Week 1. If that increases to middle of the pack, he has 30+ points basically. 

Does that change a 4 year sample size of Baker Mayfield's play style? 

[BayRaider]

3 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Does that change a 4 year sample size of Baker Mayfield's play style? 

McCaffrey will be fine. I think he will have a 28+ point game against the Giants. DJ Moore is the one I avoided all year. 0 shares in 106 drafts. 

[Forge]

If you can burn a roster spot, its' worth a one week flier. Just pick him up to see how the volume shakes out this weekend. 

[BayRaider]

8 minutes ago, Forge said:

If you can burn a roster spot, its' worth a one week flier. Just pick him up to see how the volume shakes out this weekend. 

Totally disagree with Mason. He is sooooo slow on tape, even in his 49er pre season tape. Same issue I had with Sermon last year and why I didn’t draft him on any team. 

TDP has great burst, he eats those first 10 yards like candy. Mason will probably get a crack first, but I don’t see him doing much. 

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Totally disagree with Mason. He is sooooo slow on tape, even in his 49er pre season tape. Same issue I had with Sermon last year and why I didn’t draft him on any team. 

TDP has great burst, he eats those first 10 yards like candy. Mason will probably get a crack first, but I don’t see him doing much. 

I mean, you could have said the same thing about Jeff Wilson 5 years ago and here we are with him basically holding off all comers. 

Doesn't always matter how well you run. Shanny has to trust you. He doesn't trust TDP, as evidenced by his "has to be better without the ball". He has already shown that he trusts Mason a little more solely by virtue of having him active. 

[BayRaider]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

I mean, you could have said the same thing about Jeff Wilson 5 years ago and here we are with him basically holding off all comers. 

Doesn't always matter how well you run. Shanny has to trust you. He doesn't trust TDP, as evidenced by his "has to be better without the ball". He has already shown that he trusts Mason a little more solely by virtue of having him active. 

Wilson is definitely faster than Mason on tape, don’t care what their 40 times say. Mason is super slow. Also, no one runs harder in the NFL than Jeff Wilson. 

[Forge]

1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

Wilson is definitely faster than Mason on tape, don’t care what their 40 times say. Mason is super slow. Also, no one runs harder in the NFL than Jeff Wilson. 

I'm guessing you haven't watched Wilson in a couple of years. looked absolutely cooked last year. 

[BayRaider]

I'm surprised Wentz went so low in drafts this year. He has been a Top 13 Fantasy QB every season of his career. Was being drafted as like QB21 in the 17th Round. 

Washington's supporting cast was one of my absolute favorites heading into this year. Three headed monster at WR in McLaurin-Samuel-Dotson. One of the best pass catching TE's in the NFL in Logan Thomas. RB1 Brian Robinson, polished and underrated, very good blend of skills. Gibson Hybrid RB, can run, pass catch, and line up as WR. J.D. McKissic receiving back. 

I'm not expecting anything too crazy from Wentz, but he should finish as his normal QB10-13 self. 

I think the publicity during the offseason tanked his stock. 

Edited September 15, 2022 by BayRaider

[TheGreatZepp]

31 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I'm surprised Wentz went so low in drafts this year. He has been a Top 13 Fantasy QB every season of his career. Was being drafted as like QB21 in the 17th Round. 

Washington's supporting cast was one of my absolute favorites heading into this year. Three headed monster at WR in McLaurin-Samuel-Dotson. One of the best pass catching TE's in the NFL in Logan Thomas. RB1 Brian Robinson, polished and underrated, very good blend of skills. Gibson Hybrid RB, can run, pass catch, and line up as WR. J.D. McKissic receiving back. 

I'm not expecting anything too crazy from Wentz, but he should finish as his normal QB10-13 self. 

I think the publicity during the offseason tanked his stock. 

Fantasy players chase new and shiny, Wentz is neither, drafting a quarterback because you’re happy with a 10-12 QB isn’t what most drafters are shooting for

Edited September 15, 2022 by TheGreatZepp