ROY Predictions

[Daniel]

I’d bet on either Skyy Moore, Christian Watson, or Treylon Burks among receivers. The other highly drafted WRs have bad QBs, and all three teams that those three landed on just got rid of their No. 1s.

For DROY, probably one of the edges. Hutchinson is probably best situated for immediate impact.

[Jakuvious]

10 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Over the last decade the WR's to win it put up: Chase (81/1,455/13) | OBJ (91/1,305/12)

 

I feel like this could easily wind up going aggressively in either direction, this year. On one hand, with so many good WRs coming out of the draft, it feels really possible for someone to match that kind of rookie receiving production. Burks, Moore, or Watson wind up winning the #1 spot on a playoff team and produce a ton, or Williams winds up talented enough to overcome Detroit, or the Jets or Saints or Falcons get better QB play than we expect. Feels like odds are good that one of these things could happen.

But if none of them go off? I'm not sure the competition is there from other offensive prospects to keep a WR that leads rookies and goes for, say, 60/1000/8 from still winning it. I'm doubtful any rookie QB starts out of the gate. I've seen Breece Hall and James Cook thrown out there, but for Cook you'd need a drastic change in offensive philosophy from Buffalo, and Breece Hall would basically need to match the output of every RB from the 2021 Jets combined, to be ROTY relevant. And I'm not sure that'll even be physically possible on that team, with Carter still present.

So this year might be as likely as ever for a WR to go off for numbers like that, while also being the easiest year for a WR to win ROTY if they don't.

[NYJets4716]

Is Jameson Williams even going to play the full season? What's crazy is that Williams was the #4 WR at OSU. 

[onejayhawk]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

I feel like this could easily wind up going aggressively in either direction, this year. On one hand, with so many good WRs coming out of the draft, it feels really possible for someone to match that kind of rookie receiving production. Burks, Moore, or Watson wind up winning the #1 spot on a playoff team and produce a ton, or Williams winds up talented enough to overcome Detroit, or the Jets or Saints or Falcons get better QB play than we expect. Feels like odds are good that one of these things could happen.

But if none of them go off? I'm not sure the competition is there from other offensive prospects to keep a WR that leads rookies and goes for, say, 60/1000/8 from still winning it. I'm doubtful any rookie QB starts out of the gate. I've seen Breece Hall and James Cook thrown out there, but for Cook you'd need a drastic change in offensive philosophy from Buffalo, and Breece Hall would basically need to match the output of every RB from the 2021 Jets combined, to be ROTY relevant. And I'm not sure that'll even be physically possible on that team, with Carter still present.

So this year might be as likely as ever for a WR to go off for numbers like that, while also being the easiest year for a WR to win ROTY if they don't.

I would not let either of those issues stop me.

That said, Buffalo does not need to make a drastic change, just an adjustment. After all, Singletary had 870 yards last seeason. Why can't Breece Hall match the output of every Jets RB? Thats only a little over 1200 yards.  

Unless a WR goes for 1400+ the race usually devolves to RBs and QBs and this season it's doubtful a QB challenges. 

[Jakuvious]

17 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

I would not let either of those issues stop me.

That said, Buffalo does not need to make a drastic change, just an adjustment. After all, Singletary had 870 yards last seeason. Why can't Breece Hall match the output of every Jets RB? Thats only a little over 1200 yards.  

Unless a WR goes for 1400+ the race usually devolves to RBs and QBs and this season it's doubtful a QB challenges. 

The entire Bills RB corp in the past few years have gone for about 300 carries, and it's generally been about a 60/40 split between the top back in carries and the backups. They're a middle of the pack volume rushing team with Josh Allen's production. Without it, they run the ball less than we do. 870 yards rushing is not going to net OROTY unless it's backed up by almost as many yards receiving (a la Kamara's ROTY performance.) They would need to either run the ball far more with their RBs than they currently do, or they would need to switch to a much more bell cow style carry distribution, if not both, for the volume to be there for an OROTY campaign. Your OROTYs at RB over the last decade has averaged 1550 yards from scrimmage and 12.5 TDs (and Todd Gurley drags the averages down a lot, but 2015 did not have much OROTY competition.) You're talking about a 50% increase in productivity over what Singletary did for them last year. Buffalo has shown no inclination in recent years to have a 250+ carry RB. Or that they're going to throw 100 passes to their top RB, like Kamara or Barkley in their rookie years. The volume just won't be there.

The Jets are basically the same situation, but swap Singletary with Carter, and take the fact that the Bills want to pass the ball because they're good at it, and swap it for the Jets having to pass the ball because they're bad at football. And I really shouldn't have to explain why one rookie RB is not going to come in and immediately absorb the entire production of three others. All the other guys remain on the roster. They will not instantaneously forget Michael Carter exists because Hall is there, unless we're projecting Hall to be an instant all-pro. And even if they do, the Jets offense is still probably not going to be good enough for them to run the ball that much, and score enough, for Hall's statline to pop.

[NYRaider]

3 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

I feel like this could easily wind up going aggressively in either direction, this year. On one hand, with so many good WRs coming out of the draft, it feels really possible for someone to match that kind of rookie receiving production. Burks, Moore, or Watson wind up winning the #1 spot on a playoff team and produce a ton, or Williams winds up talented enough to overcome Detroit, or the Jets or Saints or Falcons get better QB play than we expect. Feels like odds are good that one of these things could happen.

But if none of them go off? I'm not sure the competition is there from other offensive prospects to keep a WR that leads rookies and goes for, say, 60/1000/8 from still winning it. I'm doubtful any rookie QB starts out of the gate. I've seen Breece Hall and James Cook thrown out there, but for Cook you'd need a drastic change in offensive philosophy from Buffalo, and Breece Hall would basically need to match the output of every RB from the 2021 Jets combined, to be ROTY relevant. And I'm not sure that'll even be physically possible on that team, with Carter still present.

So this year might be as likely as ever for a WR to go off for numbers like that, while also being the easiest year for a WR to win ROTY if they don't.

Kenny Pickett could win it if he gets the starting job immediately. I think Olave is in a pretty good spot just because of Winston's tendency to stretch the field and his ability to make big plays. 

[onejayhawk]

42 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

The entire Bills RB corp in the past few years have gone for about 300 carries, and it's generally been about a 60/40 split between the top back in carries and the backups. They're a middle of the pack volume rushing team with Josh Allen's production. Without it, they run the ball less than we do. 870 yards rushing is not going to net OROTY unless it's backed up by almost as many yards receiving (a la Kamara's ROTY performance.) They would need to either run the ball far more with their RBs than they currently do, or they would need to switch to a much more bell cow style carry distribution, if not both, for the volume to be there for an OROTY campaign. Your OROTYs at RB over the last decade has averaged 1550 yards from scrimmage and 12.5 TDs (and Todd Gurley drags the averages down a lot, but 2015 did not have much OROTY competition.) You're talking about a 50% increase in productivity over what Singletary did for them last year. Buffalo has shown no inclination in recent years to have a 250+ carry RB. Or that they're going to throw 100 passes to their top RB, like Kamara or Barkley in their rookie years. The volume just won't be there.

The Jets are basically the same situation, but swap Singletary with Carter, and take the fact that the Bills want to pass the ball because they're good at it, and swap it for the Jets having to pass the ball because they're bad at football. And I really shouldn't have to explain why one rookie RB is not going to come in and immediately absorb the entire production of three others. All the other guys remain on the roster. They will not instantaneously forget Michael Carter exists because Hall is there, unless we're projecting Hall to be an instant all-pro. And even if they do, the Jets offense is still probably not going to be good enough for them to run the ball that much, and score enough, for Hall's statline to pop.

The Bills only gave Singletary 188 carries and 40 receptions, yet he gained almost 1100 yards from scrimare. They don't need a major change, just an adjustmentby giving Cook 220 carries and 50 receptions. The opportunity is there with only a small uptick in usage. If Cook peals off a couple of long runs in preseason, there may be no wait. 

The Jets situation is completely different. Instead of an elite QB, they have a medicre one. Instead of a single RB getting 2/3 of the carries, they have a committee. Instead of being a SB contender, they will struggle to break .500. The Jets are the team that must make a major change to their offensive philosophy but they are also the team motivated to shake things up. For Hall to win RoY the Jets need to make him the undisputed lead RB and save Coleman, Carter, and Johnson for situational use. If it will take some weight off of Zack Wilson, they might do exactly that. 

Where do you get equating Singletary and Carter? I grant that they have similar talent level, but the point is that there are significantly better talents now available.

[KhanYouDigIt]

Breece Hall and Devin Lloyd.

[NYRaider]

3 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Breece Hall and Devin Lloyd.

Travis Ettiene is a sleeper if he still technically counts as a rookie since he didn't play last season.

[KhanYouDigIt]

6 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Travis Ettiene is a sleeper if he still technically counts as a rookie since he didn't play last season.

I have high expectations for ETN. Could be in line for a big work load if James Robinson isn’t ready to go by the start of the season.

[onejayhawk]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

Travis Ettiene is a sleeper if he still technically counts as a rookie since he didn't play last season.

Now with Jacksonville. Nice catch.

I am sure Mr Lawrence will welcome him and he deserves to be in the conversation. 

[SteelKing728]

Christian Watson and Derek Stingley Jr

[NYRaider]

21 hours ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

I have high expectations for ETN. Could be in line for a big work load if James Robinson isn’t ready to go by the start of the season.

19 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Now with Jacksonville. Nice catch.

I am sure Mr Lawrence will welcome him and he deserves to be in the conversation. 

Does ETN count as a rookie since he didn't play last season? I don't think Robinson will be at 100% even if he comes back early on in the season. ETN also has great pass catching ability so he doesn't necessarily need to rush for a ton of yards to produce, could be like Kamara when he won it.

 

[NYRaider]

9 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

Christian Watson and Derek Stingley Jr

Watson wasn't a high volume target at NDSU, wonder how many targets he'll get this year. I'd expect they use him more like they used MVS.

[Daniel]

13 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Does ETN count as a rookie since he didn't play last season? 

No.