Rookie Starters

[Pastor Dillon]

What’s everyone predictions on the rookies starting?

 

it’s not crazy for Stingley, Green, Pietre, Metchie, Harris and pierce to be starting by the end of the year.

but man that’s 6 rookie starters. That’s insane. 
 

[ET80]

- I think Stingley Jr and Green are day 1 starters, both will bebth the best players at their position and immediately get in on every play on their side of the ball.

- Jalen Pitre will be in on big nickel downs as a 3rd S. I'd say by week 7-8, he'll take one of the starting S jobs, but expect him rotating in weeks 1-6.

- John Metchie III will rotate a lot with Chris Conley starting around week 5, won't probably get a "starting" job but will be the primary slot WR by week 10/11. Next year the competition will be Metchie and Nico Collins for the #2 spot behind Brandin Cooks, who’ll be mentoring a WR to take his spot as the new #1.

- Christian Harris won't start unless there's an injury to one of the starting OLBs. He might get in a lot of time as a ST body. Next season he should have a track to a starting LB role.

- Dameon Pierce will be the starting RB week 1. He’s athletically the most impressive player at RB (might actually be the best athlete on the team) and he’s got a great foundation to learn on when it comes to pass blocking. He might not start in the preseason, but he’ll separate from the pack and get the nod over Marlon Mack.

- Thomas Booker won’t supplant anyone on the DT depth chart, but he’ll get snaps over Roy Lopez on passing downs by Week 8-9.

- Teagen “Quitty” Quitoriano will be a secondary TE on run downs and in short yardage/goal line situations. I don’t expect him to catch many passes (but I do expect him to have more catches than Kahale Warring did in his career…)

- Austin Deculus won’t start, probably ever. If he does, the season is lost.

 

[Texansfan713]

Stingley and Green are for sure day 1 starters.

 

Call me crazy but I think Christian Harris can pull a DeMeco Ryans (ironically they are both from Alabama) and be a starter at linebacker as a rookie.   I think Pierce will open as 3rd string RB behind Mack and Burkhead.  If Mack gets injured I can see him being a starter this season and holding onto the job. 

[PAtexansFAN_99]

3 hours ago, Texansfan713 said:

Stingley and Green are for sure day 1 starters.

 

Call me crazy but I think Christian Harris can pull a DeMeco Ryans (ironically they are both from Alabama) and be a starter at linebacker as a rookie.   I think Pierce will open as 3rd string RB behind Mack and Burkhead.  If Mack gets injured I can see him being a starter this season and holding onto the job. 

I agree, Stingley and Green are day one starters. I also agree that Marlon Mack will finish with the lion's share of carries assuming he doesn't get hurt. I think one of the qualities the Texans liked with Pierce is how productive he's been without large numbers of touches. Some guys need 5-10 carries before they can really get going, not Dameon Pierce. We can use him on 6 or 7 crucial, short yardage, goal line type situations throughout the game, and I think he'd really thrive being used in that way. I honestly feel similarly about Burkhead, he's a really efficient player off the bench. 

Pitre is really interesting. I'm really not sure what happens if you play him as a traditional, half the field safety covering the deep part of the field. I don't think you take Jalen Pitre that high with the intention of playing him that way. I think Pitre is the X factor in our defense. He's the guy you've always got to keep an eye on, who you have to identify presnap. He's an outstanding blitzer, really good at covering the flats and in the run game. He's kind of like an undersized LB who's got speed to run with wide receivers. I think he'll be on the field almost all of the time doing all sorts of different ****, making our defense a nightmare to prepare for. 

I could see Christian Harris being way better at what Lovie's going to ask him to do than he was at what Alabama was asking him to do. He's so fast. He ran his 40 .23 seconds faster than Zach Cunningham as a reference. Also a really good blitzer. If the coaching staff can pare down the reads and the plays they ask him to make, I could see him making more than a handful of splash plays for us this year. 

5 hours ago, ET80 said:

- Thomas Booker won’t supplant anyone on the DT depth chart, but he’ll get snaps over Roy Lopez on passing downs by Week 8-9.

I agree.

5 hours ago, ET80 said:

- Teagen “Quitty” Quitoriano will be a secondary TE on run downs and in short yardage/goal line situations. I don’t expect him to catch many passes (but I do expect him to have more catches than Kahale Warring did in his career…)

I've been referring to him as Quentin Tarantino lol. 

Also, I don't think Deculus starting at some point necessarily means the season is lost. I could see him being our third best guard at some point and playing in the event of an injury. At tackle though, yea we might be in trouble if he starts this year. 

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by PAtexansFAN_99

[OzzyTexan]

11 hours ago, ET80 said:

- Dameon Pierce will be the starting RB week 1. He’s athletically the most impressive player at RB (might actually be the best athlete on the team) and he’s got a great foundation to learn on when it comes to pass blocking. He might not start in the preseason, but he’ll separate from the pack and get the nod over Marlon Mack.

Dameon Pierce is not the best athlete on this team. He's a tough physical runner but by no means is he a top athlete. Doesn't mean he can't be a good player and I like him on this team. I don't think he is our starting back vs the Colts week one but he will have plenty of opportunity and I think he'll start a couple games over the course of the season. 

As discussed Green and Stingley start day 1 and improve our team. Pitre I can also see starting at one of the safety spots by the time the season rolls around. 

Metchie when healthy will play. I don't think that who starts at reciever is necessairly important. It depends a lot on personnel as to which receivers will be on the field.

Harris I see as good depth and special teamer initially to start the season. Perhaps by the end of the year he is playing snaps on defense but will be tough for him to beat out Grugier-Hill, Kirksey, Reeves Maybin early in the season for meaningful defensive snaps. 

Quitoriano will be developed. He will need to play/block better than Aucliar or Brown to get snaps at TE. Really depends how he goes in camp. I could see him inactive to start the season or he could be a 5 -10 snap a game guy in certain personnel groupings while contributing on special teams. 

Booker is the prospect I'm most skeptical of contributing. He has a long way to go as a player... But super smart guy and decent athlete. He'll be asked to penetrate which isn't what Stanford had him doing. I could see him inactive most of the season despite us being thin on the interior DL imo. All active DL play as part of the rotation we use so if he's active on gameday he'll play meaningful snaps.

Deculus is a developmental guy. I don't see him getting snaps this year but I like him as a guy who could be solid pro in the future. Started a LOT of games at LSU which isnt easy to do. 

[ET80]

6 hours ago, OzzyTexan said:

Dameon Pierce is not the best athlete on this team.

He’s 5’ 11” 218 lbs, can bench press 390, squat 705, run a 40 in 4.50 flat and has a 37” vertical leap. That is INCREDIBLE athleticism, especially at his size. (Whether or not he plays to that athletic ability is another question entirely).

Find me anyone on this roster who can do all of that. There are faster guys, none of those guys are stronger. There are stronger guys, none of those guys are faster.

[Pastor Dillon]

On 5/16/2022 at 9:52 PM, ET80 said:

He’s 5’ 11” 218 lbs, can bench press 390, squat 705, run a 40 in 4.50 flat and has a 37” vertical leap. That is INCREDIBLE athleticism, especially at his size. (Whether or not he plays to that athletic ability is another question entirely).

Find me anyone on this roster who can do all of that. There are faster guys, none of those guys are stronger. There are stronger guys, none of those guys are faster.

Where did he run a 4.5?

[ET80]

5 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Where did he run a 4.5?

This is per Bruce Feldman's annual Freaks' list:

https://theathletic.com/2758595/2021/08/09/bruce-feldmans-2021-college-football-freaks-list/

[Pastor Dillon]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

This is per Bruce Feldman's annual Freaks' list:

https://theathletic.com/2758595/2021/08/09/bruce-feldmans-2021-college-football-freaks-list/

He ran a 4.59 at the combine but 4.5 is better. 

[UKTexans]

Define "starter" 😉

 

Pitre will be used in a variety of ways, but he may not always be present on the 1st down of the 1st defensive play.

Kenyon Green and Derek Stingley Jr will 100% be week 1 starters.

Dameon Pierce could be a day 1 starter, although I think initially he'll be a rotational guy with Mack (if healthy).

Metchie depends entirely on health. If he's healthy I think he starts. Although again, if we run a 2TE run heavy formation with Cooks and/or Collins on the outside, that doesn't leave room for a Y receiver. 

 

The later round picks I don't imagine will start barring a breakthrough camp.

[Pastor Dillon]

Stingley might not be ready for training camp. He could be a rookie bust this coming year,  but we want another high pick anyway. 

[PAtexansFAN_99]

On 5/25/2022 at 2:22 PM, Pastor Dillon said:

Stingley might not be ready for training camp. He could be a rookie bust this coming year,  but we want another high pick anyway. 

There's no way I'm willing to scrap 2022 for a high draft pick, especially when our GM has proven the ability to get any pick he wants. I want wins.

[ET80]

15 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

There's no way I'm willing to scrap 2022 for a high draft pick, especially when our GM has proven the ability to get any pick he wants. I want wins.

I think this is already the situation - by and large, this roster is nearly the same as the 4-13 unit from last season. Nothing has really changed, actually - similar coaching staff, schemes, players - and while players might be more experienced, this years draw of AFCW/NFCE is probably tougher than last years’ draw of AFCE/NFCW. 

If you look at the majority of moves (outside of the Watson trade and the draft) you’ll see Caserio is building with ‘23/‘24 in mind: Outside of a few guys (Tunsil, Cooks, Maliek Collins, Desmond King, maybe one or two more) none of the team signings are beyond 2022. So, that means roughly 18-20 of the 53 guys on roster are guaranteed to be here next season. That’s not really the sort of turnover you’re expecting when you’re maintaining a winning franchise. It’s VERY much the turnover you’re prepping for in a rebuilding season.

Logically thinking, stripping away what we WANT to happen - there might be a 2-3 game improvement at best. This is still an incomplete team - and that’s by design.

[Pastor Dillon]

16 hours ago, ET80 said:

I think this is already the situation - by and large, this roster is nearly the same as the 4-13 unit from last season. Nothing has really changed, actually - similar coaching staff, schemes, players - and while players might be more experienced, this years draw of AFCW/NFCE is probably tougher than last years’ draw of AFCE/NFCW. 

If you look at the majority of moves (outside of the Watson trade and the draft) you’ll see Caserio is building with ‘23/‘24 in mind: Outside of a few guys (Tunsil, Cooks, Maliek Collins, Desmond King, maybe one or two more) none of the team signings are beyond 2022. So, that means roughly 18-20 of the 53 guys on roster are guaranteed to be here next season. That’s not really the sort of turnover you’re expecting when you’re maintaining a winning franchise. It’s VERY much the turnover you’re prepping for in a rebuilding season.

Logically thinking, stripping away what we WANT to happen - there might be a 2-3 game improvement at best. This is still an incomplete team - and that’s by design.

I would agree with this. We are a 4-6 win team. Now we have players in place that could get us to 8 wins if they put it all together. If Davis Mills really is something special we could go 8-9. 
 

I think our defense is still going to be a disaster. The d-line was addressed, the linebackers are not great and the secondary will be a mess again this season, especially without Stingley,  but even with him, a rookie CB isn’t saving the secondary. 
 

I think next draft is going to be heavy defense. It has to be. We need D-Line help badly. 
 

our offense is set, outside the question at QB. We could probably use 1 more lineman at center or guard but I think everywhere else we are fine. 
 

I wouldn’t be opposed to using our two firsts next year on a D-Lineman and a Linebacker. 

[LORK88]

19 hours ago, ET80 said:

I think this is already the situation - by and large, this roster is nearly the same as the 4-13 unit from last season. Nothing has really changed, actually - similar coaching staff, schemes, players - and while players might be more experienced, this years draw of AFCW/NFCE is probably tougher than last years’ draw of AFCE/NFCW. 

If you look at the majority of moves (outside of the Watson trade and the draft) you’ll see Caserio is building with ‘23/‘24 in mind: Outside of a few guys (Tunsil, Cooks, Maliek Collins, Desmond King, maybe one or two more) none of the team signings are beyond 2022. So, that means roughly 18-20 of the 53 guys on roster are guaranteed to be here next season. That’s not really the sort of turnover you’re expecting when you’re maintaining a winning franchise. It’s VERY much the turnover you’re prepping for in a rebuilding season.

Logically thinking, stripping away what we WANT to happen - there might be a 2-3 game improvement at best. This is still an incomplete team - and that’s by design.

I agree, I don't think the win total changes much. I think we see a bigger change in the point differential and we're more competitive. Maybe we win 2 more games, but I don't see much more than that. However, I expect less blowout games than we had last season (Bills by 40, Colts by 31 and 28., Seahawks by 20, etc).