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How many long term starting QBs does a 'great' NFL Draft produce?


Bolts223

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It seems like if a draft produces 4 long term starters it would be a great draft.

Just going by recent years....

 

2014: Derek Carr, Jimmy G.

2015: Winston

2016: Dak, Goff, Wentz

2017: Mahomes, Watson

2018: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, (Maybe Baker?)

2019: Kyler Murray

2020: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert (Maybe Tua and Hurts?)

2021: Too early to say.

Edited by Bolts223
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Jameis busted in Tampa and is a transitional starter in New Orleans. I don’t see how you can list him and not Mariota when they are both technically slated to be starters this year. 
 

Goff is also a bottom tier transitional stater. This is also going to be Wentz last year going into a season as an unquestioned starter for a team. 

Edited by CP3MVP
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Depends on your specific definition of 'great', but historically speaking, 3. 2004 and 1983 are seen as the best QB drafts ever (definitely qualify as 'great') and they both produced 3 great long term starters, most of whom are HOF caliber or already in the HOF.

2017 and 2020 definitely have shots at being 'good' QB classes. I think all 4 of those guys are already really good starters and see them continuing on their trajectories.

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On 5/16/2022 at 1:11 PM, Bolts223 said:

It seems like if a draft produces 4 long term starters it would be a great draft.

Just going by recent years....

 

2014: Derek Carr, Jimmy G.

2015: Winston

2016: Dak, Goff, Wentz

2017: Mahomes, Watson

2018: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, (Maybe Baker?)

2019: Kyler Murray

2020: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert (Maybe Tua and Hurts?)

2021: Too early to say.

Hmm...what draft class do you all think will have produced the best QBs when all is said and done?
 

2017, 2018, or 2020?

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I mean the 2004 draft used to be the standard. It produced Rivers, Eli, and Ben as long term franchise guys. 
 

Losman was also a first rounder and he flopped. 
 

McCown and Schaub were career journeyman. 
 

The rest weren’t notable. 

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56 minutes ago, lancerman said:

I mean the 2004 draft used to be the standard. It produced Rivers, Eli, and Ben as long term franchise guys. 
 

The rest weren’t notable. 

Super Bowl champion Jim Sorgi would like a word. 

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The short answer is one. 

Regardless of position, on average the top rookie should finish in or near the top 16, second best about 24th, third around 32nd at the NFL level in their first year.  Clearly, 2021 gave us a QB1 in Mac Jones (PFF:T11th, DYAR:12th) but no QB2.

(Rank +1) x 8

Barring sophomore slumps, it should--in theory--be onward and upward from there. 

(Of course, it isn't always immediately obvious who the "top rookie" really is/was.)

 

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