ThatJerkDave Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Packers are too low, tbh. no bias. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 13 hours ago, KingOfNewYork said: When’s the last time you were excited to watch the Jets? Last season. But I eat up stuff like Jags-Jets, or Texans-Jets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingOfNewYork Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 6 hours ago, FrantikRam said: Where would you put the Jets right now? I wouldn’t rank teams right now lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 (edited) Philly makes no sense at all. Last year when they played the average team they beat them. When they played the bad teams they beat them. When they played the good teams they got killed. They are better across the board this year by any metric. I don't care if they have them 5th or 8th or 14th but the negative rating is just stupid. Like the model is broken. Also, the Packers as the 2nd best team in the league is hilarious. Is this 2020 data? In 2021 when they played the bad teams they won (Chicago x2, Detroit x1, DC, Seattle with Wilson rushing back from injury) Detroit 2 was preseason. When they played everyone else it was usually a coinflip with 6 wins by 3 or less including some off the rails teams like Cleveland and Baltimore. Sure they handled the Rams in a shootout but the Saints woodshedded them. They were 10.6 - 6.4 in estimated wins and losses. What about 2021 season or the 2022 offseason makes the Packers a great predictive statistical probabilities team going into 2022? I think GB is probably still a playoff team in that 9-11 win range, 12 with luck and health. That's not near 2nd best in the league. Edited May 18, 2022 by SkippyX 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatKing Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 1 hour ago, SkippyX said: Philly makes no sense at all. Last year when they played the average team they beat them. When they played the bad teams they beat them. When they played the good teams they got killed. They are better across the board this year by any metric. I don't care if they have them 5th or 8th or 14th but the negative rating is just stupid. Like the model is broken. Also, the Packers as the 2nd best team in the league is hilarious. Is this 2020 data? In 2021 when they played the bad teams they won (Chicago x2, Detroit x1, DC, Seattle with Wilson rushing back from injury) Detroit 2 was preseason. When they played everyone else it was usually a coinflip with 6 wins by 3 or less including some off the rails teams like Cleveland and Baltimore. Sure they handled the Rams in a shootout but the Saints woodshedded them. They were 10.6 - 6.4 in estimated wins and losses. What about 2021 season or the 2022 offseason makes the Packers a great predictive statistical probabilities team going into 2022? I think GB is probably still a playoff team in that 9-11 win range, 12 with luck and health. That's not near 2nd best in the league. Going from 13 wins to 12. What a massive dropoff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, StatKing said: Going from 13 wins to 12. What a massive dropoff. That's best case if everything goes right and it also ignores 2nd best team in the league ranking The 2 things I could think of that would make them better in the machine probability are the return of Bakhtiari and Alexander but hoping they both play 17 at an elite level is what everyone does around the league after guys have injury years. Its a mixed bag. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingOfNewYork Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 I think the best “rankings” you could do right now is putting teams into groups or tiers. Example the Bears would be in phase 1 or a rebuild. Limited expectations, hoping to see who stands out and takes a lead role on either side of the ball. Bills/Rams/Chiefs/Bucs types are in their championship windows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetjuice Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 On 5/17/2022 at 3:21 PM, NYRaider said: I'll never understand the Colts love, like people legitimately hype them up more than they hype you guys up. With the Chargers I see it but the Colts, meh. Strong defense, strong run game, good coaching, good GM. They play good teams tough too, I like them to win the AFCS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetjuice Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said: I think the best “rankings” you could do right now is putting teams into groups or tiers. Example the Bears would be in phase 1 or a rebuild. And somehow we're right behind them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swoosh Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 7 hours ago, iloxygenil said: I feel like the Falcons are hard to predict in terms of points. The offensive line if we move Mayfield plus a mobile QB and having London as a new weapon makes me think 11 points UNDER NFL Average is quite a bit too far under. Roster is still bare, but something tells me they outperform their O/U in wins. I like what I've seen so far with the staff and how they're building this team back up. Love Dimitroff, but he left the team in cap hell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatKing Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 56 minutes ago, SkippyX said: That's best case if everything goes right and it also ignores 2nd best team in the league ranking The 2 things I could think of that would make them better in the machine probability are the return of Bakhtiari and Alexander but hoping they both play 17 at an elite level is what everyone does around the league after guys have injury years. Its a mixed bag. Packers being in a weak division has more to do with it than anything. Vikings are really the only other team I can see winning the NFCN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FinSting Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 35 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said: I think the best “rankings” you could do right now is putting teams into groups or tiers. Example the Bears would be in phase 1 or a rebuild. Limited expectations, hoping to see who stands out and takes a lead role on either side of the ball. Bills/Rams/Chiefs/Bucs types are in their championship windows. Did you see the Bengals in the Super Bowl? Imagine that team with a better o-line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iloxygenil Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 1 hour ago, swoosh said: Roster is still bare, but something tells me they outperform their O/U in wins. I like what I've seen so far with the staff and how they're building this team back up. Love Dimitroff, but he left the team in cap hell. I mean it’s the off-season and time for optimism so everything seems pointing up right now to me. I see a better roster than last year, by a wide margin. Falcons lost Foye which is kinda… whatever to me. Better at every position group other than QB, unless I’m just missing something. So I’m not saying the Falcons are a playoff team, but if healthy this team is going to win more games than most think. 5.5 and most think it’s like a 4 win team, but this roster is better than last year and last year the Falcons were in every game except that one horrible 10 day span they couldn’t do anything right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 1 hour ago, FinSting said: Did you see the Bengals in the Super Bowl? Imagine that team with a better o-line. I actually expect them to regress Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 One thing to look at from year to year is defensive turnovers. The teams that are at the top of that list in one year can be anywhere the next year. Just start 10 years ago and look at 1 and 2 and where they go next season and then do the same with the new 1 and 2. Very few teams even stay in the top 10 and lots go into the 20s. There's a decent amount of luck to defensive turnovers and its hard to duplicate year in and year out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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