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WR #1


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This has been an ongoing conversation amongst posters after the Adams trade. Who is going to be WR #1? My question is it that important? Put another way are we better off with 3 or 4 guys who are above average and can be option #1 on any given play. I'm counting on Watson being a big contributor this year as part of my thoughts. Now throw in Lazard, Bobby Tonny, Aaron Jones and perhaps Watkins and is that better for us offensively than having Rodgers commit to many tosses to one guy, even force feeding him on more than a few occasions.

How many CB1's travel with the opposing teams #1 WR? Honest question, I don't know the answer to.  I also am aware they can role coverage to that one stud, or just outright double him. Trying to take that person out of the game. 

Are we better off with the scenario we have this year? The small sample we have says we are, 7-0 without Adams. The one area I do think we will be a work in progress without Adams is the redzone. He and Rodgers could get things done so quickly that if a team did show their hand immediately that they were doubling Adams, it was too late and over. That part will be a work in progress. However, if we have a healty O-line we can spread teams out more down in the RZ and run it will Jones or Dillion as well.

 

Convince me I'm wrong about THIS team with Rodgers as the QB needing a 'true #1 WR'! 

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There won’t be a true 1, which is just fine. There will probably be better balance without Tae, but there won’t be that easy bail out option for Rodgers without him.

 

I envision Watson AND Doubs contributing early on. I see lots of rotation and fresh legs throughout games.

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It is what it is. There's no way to lose the best WR in the league, without a clear replacement, and not take a step back.

I don't think we have 3-4 guys who are above average, either. Lazard is probably in line for a nice production bump, but after that you have a bunch of guys who are the 3rd or 4th best option on any other team in the league. The rookies will contribute, but I doubt they make much impact before December.

I think this is the year we go really run heavy, just because that's where the skill players of this offense are.

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I don't think we will even have a 1000 yard receiver.  I think week to week, they will find a match-up that they think will work; and that guy will get a heavier workload.  My guess is that, that primary receiver will rotate between Cobb, Lazard, and Watkins, and Watson will get some of the MVS deep shots once or twice a game.  It also wouldn't surprise me if both Doubs and Watson also get their yardages in bunches, where they may have 80 yards and a TD one week, then zero targets for the next three weeks.  

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I'd be cautious about our production in that small sample size you mentioned, and agree it's clear there is no #1 guy right now.

It seems that Lafleur does prioritize having that type of player as evidenced by the contract they were willing to offer a 29yo and the draft capital they used to move up to get someone they think can become that player. 

I also think that if Jordan Love was our QB1, then this would be a much bigger problem. But with an all time great at QB, paired with an elite rushing attack, the best defense we've seen since we won the Owl, and a completely reimagined special teams, I'm not too worried about not having that player right now.

 

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Honestly just hoping a combo of a (healthy) Tonyan/Jones can be a good safety valve in a few inevitable games where the O-line gets dinged up or is having a bad day. Won't be those gorgeous completions he's had with Tae, and previously Jordy. But yards are yards.

I think they'll manufacture the production collectively all season just fine, I guess the question is who gets the ball in a must have 3rd and XX situation? I suppose that's to be seen.

 

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I think end of the year it will be a nicely balanced target share spread amongst many of the folks mentioned

I expect Lazard to be the closest to 1000 yards by end of season but I’d also expect Watson to be on his heels by late in the year.

I look at Cobb and Watkins in a similar light. If either of them play more than 8-10 games then I’ll consider it lucky for us and hopefully they can combine for 1000 yards.

I bet a surprise contributor steps up with around 600-800 yards like Romeo Doubs or Samari Toure or maybe even Amari Rodgers?

Aaron Jones should see 50 targets or more and if Bob Tonyan stays healthy he should hover around 600-800 range also… and that about covers it

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Does it matter what is better or not? GB doesn’t have a “true number 1” and likely won’t have by seasons end either. Like there will be a guy that has the most yards, TDs, rec, etc… but I doubt any WR will enter the discussion of number 1 guys. Unless Watson goes all Jamar Chase/ Justin Jefferson in his rookie year, which I would say is unlikely.

So regardless of what is better or not… GB has to make what they have work. It kind of has to be better for them if they expect making and winning a Super Bowl this year.

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6 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Does WR1 have to be the same guy week in, week out ?  Surely scheme can dictate several different guys, depending on the weeks game plan.

And how will opposing defenses scheme for us?  Will teams play more man against us or more zone?  If we can't establish the run, what kind of offense will Rodgers be able to generate?  

We're going to see just how good of a HC MLF is this year.  Can he make the adjustments that he couldn't last year when Rodgers was a dud?  Maybe forcing Rodgers to look for different WRs is going to free up this offense to flourish.  

Edited by thrILL!
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10 hours ago, thrILL! said:

And how will opposing defenses scheme for us?  Will teams play more man against us or more zone?  If we can't establish the run, what kind of offense will Rodgers be able to generate?  

We're going to see just how good of a HC MLF is this year.  Can he make the adjustments that he couldn't last year when Rodgers was a dud?  Maybe forcing Rodgers to look for different WRs is going to free up this offense to flourish.  

I think that is the point right there. There are few plays where everybody is blanketed. The ability to get off of your 1st or 2nd read to get to 3 or 4 will beat even great defenses. 

Making two very large assumptions (Bak and Jenkins return to full health) our offensive line should be top 5 in the league. We should be very good in both run and pass blocking which will give us balance on offense. Those factors negate the need for that ONE standout WR IMO. Maybe not entirely negate but minimize. 

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"Who is going to be WR #1?"  Nobody.

"is it that important?"  Depends on how good or bad the other guys are.

"are we better off with 3 or 4 guys who are above average and can be option #1 on any given play."  Yes.  But the question is whether we've got those other guys.  The risk is that we might end up having one average guy and 3-4 below-average guys.  

"How many CB1's travel with the opposing teams #1 WR?"  I don't know either.  Less than half, though.   

"Are we better off with the scenario we have this year?"  The team as a whole might be, if the defense is better and the o-line is MUCH better.  It's a team game.  But for just the receiver group, it's pretty unlikely that we're better off.  

"The small sample we have says we are, 7-0 without Adams."  The 7-0 affirms it's possible to win NFL games with Adams, especially against vulnerable teams.  The 7-0 does not prove that the **offense** is better without Adams.  The 7-0 coincidentally coincided with playing a number of vulnerable teams.  For sure it's a team game, so *if* other aspects of the team are hypothetically improved enough, the team as a whole may be better now despite losing Adams.  The same goes for the offense.  

 

Edited by craig
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It's not that we were 7-0 without Adams. What i saw is Rodgers playing better in those games.

Here is what I found:

2020.  Weeks 3,4. QBR. 124.9/147.5. QBR 2020 121.5

2019 weeks 5-8 QBR 129/158.3/90/85.2 (Ave 115.6) Season QBR 97.6

I know it's a small sample size, but I am going from my eye test as well. Although this may be offset by my marginal memory capacity.

Now, I believe Adams is the best WR the Packers have had in my lifetime. And I am fairly old. But I think AR relied too heavily on him. Someone posted all the pictures from the Tampa PO loss of plays where someone other than Adams was open and AR did not throw it.  Had he made those throws I think we win.

Forcing AR to spread the ball around makes AR a better QB.   

AR to DA is the all time greatest Packer combo.  They were amazing together but AR relied too much on it.

The drop in WR talent will not hurt as most pundits have stated.

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