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The Jalen Hurts Thread


TheRealMcCoy

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  1. 1. Jalen Hurts will be a top ___ QB in 2022?


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  • Poll closed on 07/26/2022 at 06:59 AM

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 Jalen Hurts

 I really didn't even want to have to post this, but I've only really seen Eagles fans mention him in this thread just skimming through all the pages (so I could've missed one). 

I'm not sure about how high his ceiling is, but I think he's going to surprise some people this year.

Like Chris Simms went into last year not putting him in his top 40 QBs which was a joke. This year he moved him up to 25th, but I still think that was a bit too low. 

Division rivals just call him a RB and I see a lot of hate and scrutiny thrown his way which is crazy for what was essentially his first year starting. I don't consider those last few games in 2020 being thrown into the fire after having an abbreviated training camp due to COVID to be a legit first year, especially when he had no weapons at WR. The hate for him is more than any other QB in this league as far as on the field (*cough* Watson *cough*) and it gets to a point where I think its just downright disrespectful. I saw someone call him just a slightly better Tebow the other day lol. 

Reason #1: Constant Improvement

 
Yes... Solak is an Eagles fan, but he hasn't been covering the team in years and after he stopped it didn't even feel like he was that much of a fan of the team like he was more often than not super critical of them. I think coming into the 2020 draft when Jalen was a prospect his takes on him were pretty fair and I still think he has a pretty grounded opinion on him. I don't think this has anything to do with him being a homer, because he's not close to one IMO.

Plus, it's not like this statement is false. There has been progress made with him as a passer since his true freshman year at Alabama when he won the starting job. Back then he was absolutely trash as a passer. Now, have some of the years he's got better been more incremental improvements rather than big improvements? I'd say so. His biggest jump was probably when he transferred to Oklahoma and got with Lincoln Riley and from the few games he played as a rookie to starting his first season last year. I don't think getting better every year is something you can even say for most of the QBs in last years super heralded QB class with 5 QBs in the first 15 picks. Doesn't mean he'll end up better than any of them, but that is the kind of progression you like to see from a QB or any position is that they are always trending upwards.

Reason #2: Coachability

This is often not an aspect I've taken into account much as a fan on the outside, cause obviously all we know is stuff we hear from the media and it's hard to know for sure about this kind of stuff, but going from Carson to Jalen was night and day in terms of taking to coaching. Even long before we ever drafted Jalen Hurts it had already been reported way back in 2019 that coachability was a problem with Wentz ever since the coaches (Frank Reich - OC and John DeFilippo - QB) that were tough on him and got the best out of him in 2017 left after the Eagles won the Super Bowl. Doug Pederson promoted Press Taylor (now OC in Jacksonville) to QB coach after those Reich (HC in Indy) and DeFilippo (OC in Minnesota) were hired away after winning the Super Bowl. Taylor a much less experienced coach and not that much older than Wentz was reportedly too buddy-buddy with him and that's probably how Carson wanted it. He reverted back to bad habits/mechanics and regressed as a player. 

Here is that article in question from just after the 2018 season:

A lot of Eagles fans chastised the author and his "sources", but later on his credibility with this report was basically reaffirmed.

Jalen Hurts is the polar opposite of this. He's a son of a coach. His dad was his coach in high school. 

I understand the questions about him not having the biggest arm and needing to be a faster processor, but the guy has excellent mental fortitude to pair with a relentless work ethic and extreme coachability. He's a guy that I think will hit his ceiling, even if that ceiling isn't as high as some others.

Reason #3: Continuity 

I even talked about this exact fact in the summer of last year when responding to Chris Simms not ranking Hurts in his top 40 QBs last year:

On 6/24/2021 at 3:22 PM, TheRealMcCoy said:

Speaking of coaches. I don't think its brought up enough how many different systems/offenses that Hurts has had to learn. Here is just a quick run down:

  1. ) 2016 - Hurts true freshman year at Bama he had to learn under Kiffin & Sark to an extent for the championship game.
  2. ) 2017 - Then, Daboll takes over the offense and Hurts has to learn a new one, but he bolts for Buffalo after the year to eventually go on to coach Josh Allen as a rookie before turning down the opportunity to coach Hurts this offseason lol.
  3. ) 2018 - Kiffin comes back to enter the fray, so this was a return to the familiar for Hurts, but by this time he wasn't really playing at all as Tua was the starter, so it didn't really matter, but I figured I should detail every season.
  4. ) 2019 - Hurts transfers to Oklahoma where Lincoln Riley who had gotten good results out of Mayfield and Murray considering both went #1 overall and won the Heisman. Hurts unfortunately only had 1 season under him as a Senior before being drafted compared to Murray (2) and Mayfield (3), but he did have his best season by far and was 2nd in Heisman voting just edging out Fields in 3rd and way behind 1st in Burrow.
  5. ) 2020 - Hurts is selected in the 2nd round and has to learn Doug Pederson's offense with hardly any offseason like I talked about before.

So, that is 3 different offenses in 4 years of college and 4 different offenses in 5 years when you add in the Eagles as a rookie. Now, he will be going on to his 5th offense in 6 years...... that is A LOT. 

Bottom line: The guy only had the same offense in 2016 & 2018. In 2016 he was a true freshman thrust into a starting role and 2018 he was firmly on the bench behind Tua and just basically waiting till he was going to transfer, so not sure how much good a familiar offense did that year.

The points about growth in his game and coachability are nice, but this may be the most important reason I'll list here.

I think going into year 2 with the same play caller (Shane Steichen) is going to be huge for him. He actually had 2 play callers last year. Sirianni when we were going pass heavy early in the season which I guess was when Nick was trying to see what he had in him and then Steichen when we started to run the ball a lot more in the second half of the year when we took off as a team. I don't think the move to running the ball was necessarily just Steichen's decision. Game planning went through Sirianni along with Steichen. Anyways, Hurts will know the system/playbook better and they'll know which concepts/plays he executes best. I think the comfortability of having this continuity is going to be big for his development.

Reason #4: Improved Mechanics

Jalen Hurts has a throwing coach Quincy Avery, but decided to go work with some other throwing coaches out in California.

 
Tom House has also worked with the likes of Matt Stafford, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, Lamar Jackson, etc.

You could already see in the limited clips we've got from OTAs that his mechanics look more fluid. He seems to have a higher release point, quicker delivery, his stance has been shortened, etc. Obviously all that is nice when no one is hitting you, so we have to see it in real games and when bullets are flying, cause guys can revert back to old habits.

Hurts was up and down in training camp last year, but from just the two OTA practices (that were open to the media) which don't mean a whole lot cause its 7 on 7 without a pass rush, but by all the beat writers they were pretty impressed with Jalen's accuracy, especially on deep targets which he really struggled at last year. I don't want to read too much into OTAs, but most of the beat reporters who were pretty critical of him last camp and probably deservedly so at times, but to hear them all unanimously say that he definitely looked better from mechanics to accuracy on air its still better to hear than the opposite.

Reason #5: Supporting Cast

It could be argued that Jalen Hurts might have the best offensive supporting cast of any QB in the NFL and if its not its very close.

Hurts offensive line was definitely top 5 at worst last year and maybe in the top 3, despite being 1st in AGL (Adjusted Games Lost) for offensive line according to Football Outsiders:

Quote

Offensive Linemen

With pectoral and foot injuries, Brandon Brooks (15.0) and Isaac Seumalo (14.0) suffered their second consecutive lost seasons for the Eagles and pushed the team to a position-leading 38.6 AGL on the offensive line. But compared to 2020—when the team lost expected starters Brooks, Seumalo, Lane Johnson, and Andre Dillard, as well as replacement starter Jason Peters, for half the season or more—two season-long injuries were a nice reprieve. With a non-outlier high AGL total, the Eagles jumped from a 60% to a 67% pass block win rate and helped sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts improve from a worrying -17.6% passing DVOA in his rookie season to a near-average -0.4% rate as a sophomore.

The offensive line has Mailata who was one of the very best LTs in the league last year in only his 2nd year of starting real football games in his life (no HS or college obv). Him and Landon Dickerson formed a punishing duo on the left side, especially as the season went along. Dickerson was arguably our best or at least one of our best players in that Bucs playoff game. He handled himself very well that game despite the bad loss for us. Jason Kelce has been an ironman at center and still played at an elite level last year. I have no reasons to doubt him. At RG obviously Brooks retired and with his injuries I understand that. We were able to cut Nate Herbig who the Jets smartly picked up off waivers who we developed into a solid spot starter/good back-up, because our depth along the offensive line is crazy good! The RG spot is the only one that isn't decided. I think Isaac Seumalo who is a smart player and very solid starter will get first crack at it, but he'll have to beat out Jack Driscoll who is younger and a guy our OL coach (the GOAT) supposedly loves. I'd be cool with either of them starting. Both have had trouble staying healthy the past couple years, so whoever can remain healthy is probably going to be the guy there. At right tackle Lane Johnson was a stud when he was on the field and didn't have injuries like he did in past seasons, but he did leave the team for a few weeks early in the season due to mental health.

There is no reason to believe that the left side (Mailata + Dickerson) won't get better and that whoever starts at RG won't be an upgrade to Nate Herbig starting half the games. Our starting OL might be the best in the league, but our depth behind it might be the best as well. It wouldn't shock me one bit if they are the best OL in the league this year and by a decent margin.

As far as receiving weapons we kinda forced Reagor to play as a 1st round pick and he had a disappointing oyear. Quez Watkins stepped up in year 2, but we used him A LOT out of the slot which he hadn't really played before in college or as a rookie. I still don't think Watkins is that well suited for the slot, so getting AJ Brown who is a top receiver and can play outside at the X or inside in the slot will really help both DeVonta as now we can move him around more and can bounce Watkins to the outside where he can use his 4.35 speed to take the top off and provide room underneath for the rest of the receiving targets. I think that's where he's more useful. DeVonta was obviously very good as a rookie and was usually open, but again he was hamstrung by not being able to be motioned around as much. Goedert to me is a top 5 TE and if he's not in your opinion that's cool. I know the stats don't say he is.

The RBs are a pretty solid group. I think Miles Sanders is a talented RB who has some of the best home run hitting ability in the league, but he's always getting banged up. He didn't run with a ton of patience early in his career, but he was better in that aspect running with more decisiveness and not hesitating in the backfield much as evident by him being one of the lowest in the league in runs for no gain or a loss. I will admit the Eagles run blocking on the OL (think they were 1st in yards before contact) makes it easy for him to have a high YPC like he has the past 2 seasons, but I still think he's a good back. Another positive is he didn't drop passes like he did in 2020. He has to stay healthy for that position group to be as good as they can be. The RB2 will probably be Kenny Gainwell who had basically just as much production as a receiver as he did as a rusher. He only had spot duty, but they would line him up in the slot or even out wide a few times and asked him to run harder routes than Sanders. He did have drops he needs to clean up going into year 2, but he's a talented receiving back. Boston Scott is a great RB3. Not sure who the 4th RB is going to be. Maybe we bring back Jordan Howard at some point as the power back/short yardage guy or if Kennedy Brooks impresses in camp I can see him making the team as a UDFA. I'd be happy with either.

Conclusion:

There is a lot going in Hurts favor to be a QB that surprises people this season, especially after his godawful playoff game against Todd Bowles and that Bucs defense. Will he take a significant step? I'm not sure. I'm not ready to say he'll have 5,000 passing yards in 2022 like Ace is bold enough to claim for Carson Wentz.

Will he be improved in 2022? I'm pretty confident in that and think he can be a top 15 QB this year.

The Eagles have done a great job giving him the best situation to prove himself. Now he just needs to go out and do it. 

All I know for sure is.....

Mrw GIF

Edited by TheRealMcCoy
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I was writing this post in the "Who will be the surprise QB of 2022?" thread on NFL Gen and decided I was spending way too many key strokes just to drop it there and we have a thread I know on Howie and we might have one on Nick, so why not have one on the starting QB to talk all things revolving around Hurts instead of like me making a thread about the news he was working with House and Dedeaux out in California a couple months ago.

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Great write up TRM. 🥃

I went with 11-15 for the poll. Assuming this team stays relatively healthy I believe 15 is actually his floor. With potential upside of having a top 10 statistical season if everything plays out perfectly. 

Like the previous thread I don't think close to 3800-4K passing 30TD, 5-700 rushing with 7-10TD on the ground is out of the question. Not with this projected starting lineup/ supporting cast. If 4500yds and 35+TD in his 2nd year starting isn't enough improvement for the haters, kick rocks.

Now if injury starts to derail that unit, Hurts himself specifically with ribs, hammy, ankles, shoulder type injury reports. Then those numbers will diminish greatly. 

So 11-15 with a ceiling of a Lamar Jackson MVP type impact season in a perfect world.

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I mentioned this in another thread but I'd say Hurts being the 11th best QB in the league is the highest I can possibly see right now.  I'd saying presuming that all players play every game then: Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Allen, Watson, Burrow, Stafford and Prescott are all pretty much guaranteed to have better years than Hurts.  Murray, Carr, Jackson are very likely to have a better year as well. If Hurts came in behind all of those players statistically it would still likely be a very good year. If he made it to 11th, I'd be extremely happy and the Eagles will have had, in all likelihood, a really good year. Coming into the year 16-19 seems appropriate but he could move into the top 15 if he takes a big step forward this season.

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14 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Great write up TRM. 🥃

Appreciate that my guy.

14 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

I went with 11-15 for the poll. Assuming this team stays relatively healthy I believe 15 is actually his floor. With potential upside of having a top 10 statistical season if everything plays out perfectly. 

Yeah, I went with 11-15 too. I think he could be on the lower end of that range like 14 or 15 more likely, but if he's in the top half of the league I'd be happy with that.

I think 16-19 would be a little disappointing, but we can still be a very good team with that result too. If he's just inside the top 20 of QBs, then that definitely has to make us start questioning the upside though. I'm hoping to see more progression than that, cause you could argue he was in the 17-22 range last year.

14 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Like the previous thread I don't think close to 3800-4K passing 30TD, 5-700 rushing with 7-10TD on the ground is out of the question

I think that's actually a pretty likely stat line.

The hardest to achieve there will be the 30 passing TDs.

Edited by TheRealMcCoy
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11 hours ago, Folesadelphia said:

I mentioned this in another thread but I'd say Hurts being the 11th best QB in the league is the highest I can possibly see right now.  I'd saying presuming that all players play every game then: Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Allen, Watson, Burrow, Stafford and Prescott are all pretty much guaranteed to have better years than Hurts.  Murray, Carr, Jackson are very likely to have a better year as well. If Hurts came in behind all of those players statistically it would still likely be a very good year. If he made it to 11th, I'd be extremely happy and the Eagles will have had, in all likelihood, a really good year. Coming into the year 16-19 seems appropriate but he could move into the top 15 if he takes a big step forward this season.

Can't disagree with anything you said here. He has to at least be in the 16-19 range. The hope is that he cracks the top 15.

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18 hours ago, Folesadelphia said:

I mentioned this in another thread but I'd say Hurts being the 11th best QB in the league is the highest I can possibly see right now.  I'd saying presuming that all players play every game then: Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Allen, Watson, Burrow, Stafford and Prescott are all pretty much guaranteed to have better years than Hurts.  Murray, Carr, Jackson are very likely to have a better year as well. If Hurts came in behind all of those players statistically it would still likely be a very good year. If he made it to 11th, I'd be extremely happy and the Eagles will have had, in all likelihood, a really good year. Coming into the year 16-19 seems appropriate but he could move into the top 15 if he takes a big step forward this season.

Think it was me and you talking about this. Watson's looking like he might not even play and IMO Hurts can pass Prescott. The rest of that top list is gonna be rough. I'll take my chances with Hurts over Murray Carr n Lamar. 

Really depends on how big of a Jump Hurts makes. Can see him around 11 too but wouldn't shock me if he's top 10. This is one kid I would NEVER bet against

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30 passing TDs would be an astronomical jump. Would love to see it but highly doubt it. 4500 yards and 35-40 TDs total and youre not only looking at our franchise QB, you’re looking at an MVP contender. That would be an insane jump from last year. I’m here for it, just crazy expectations. 

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2 hours ago, Jroc04 said:

30 passing TDs would be an astronomical jump. Would love to see it but highly doubt it. 4500 yards and 35-40 TDs total and youre not only looking at our franchise QB, you’re looking at an MVP contender. That would be an insane jump from last year. I’m here for it, just crazy expectations. 

Not really.  Last year with horrible WR options outside of Smitty in a run heavy offense Hurts still had 3,928 total yds and 26 TD. Had an additional 6 TD removed from adding to those numbers due to penalties. 

No one is suggesting a Josh Allen 4,500 passing 35+throwing type season but "total yds" isn't as far fetched as you might think Jroc IMO. 

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10 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Not really.  Last year with horrible WR options outside of Smitty in a run heavy offense Hurts still had 3,928 total yds and 26 TD. Had an additional 6 TD removed from adding to those numbers due to penalties. 

No one is suggesting a Josh Allen 4,500 passing 35+throwing type season but "total yds" isn't as far fetched as you might think Jroc IMO. 

Let’s not pretend Hurts only limitations was his WRs. His accuracy is a problem. He missed plenty. 28th (?) in completion percentage isn’t going to get it done. Sure, his receivers have a bit to do with it but that’s a damning stat. He’s got to get better for those numbers to rise. You’d have to imagine we’re not going to be as run heavy so more than likely his rushing stats suffer. I can’t imagine his rushing stats going up, even if the offense is more successful. If he’s improved, it’s the passing stats that are going to get better. For a guy to get 16 TDs one year and 30+ the next is a MASSIVE jump. You have to realize that it’s very optimistic sentiment. Can he get 20-25 if he and the offense is improved? Possibly. But he’d need that offseason work to really pay off to take that next step up as a complete QB. It’s not impossible, just lofty. Even if he’s to be improved this year, doesn’t even necessarily mean those numbers are attainable. Like I said, those are MVP caliber numbers. That’s not really fair to expect out of Hurts, who is in his second real year and is clearly limited in his abilities currently speaking. And that’s from a guy not very confident in him. 

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I think 8 more passing TDs is a realistic expectation. So that would put him at 24 total. The rushing TDs is the tricky part for projections. I think 7-8 would be realistic but again it's difficult to project. So 32 total would be my guess. With a small chance at surpassing even that. If he can get to 35+ that means we probably just dominated the NFL

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