The Jalen Hurts Thread

[Nabbs4u]

2 hours ago, Jroc04 said:

For a guy to get 16 TDs one year and 30+ the next is a MASSIVE jump. You have to realize that it’s very optimistic sentiment. Can he get 20-25 if he and the offense is improved?

Already know the response I'm going to get but what the hell.

Josh Allen 20 TD to 37TD

Lamar Jackson 6 TD to 36TD

Cam Newton 18TD to 35TD

 

Since I know he's not Josh Allen blah blah blah. If Lamar and Cam can achieve those type of passing TD's with legit receiving  options to throw to if even for only a year, so can Hurts. Especially if the rumors of improved mechanics and footwork are true.

Also like to point out 25TD passing and 10TD rushing can still potentially lto a 4500/35 type stat line. Just saying.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Nabbs4u

[Broadway Joe]

3 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Already know the response I'm going to get but what the hell.

Josh Allen 20 TD to 37TD

Lamar Jackson 6 TD to 36TD

Cam Newton 18TD to 35TD

 

Since I know he's not Josh Allen blah blah blah. If Lamar and Cam can achieve those type of passing TD's with legit receiving  options to throw to if even for only a year, so can Hurts. Especially if the rumors of improved mechanics and footwork are true.

Also like to point out 25TD passing and 10TD rushing can still potentially lto a 4500/35 type stat line. Just saying.

You forgot one important thing. Hurts stats are wildly inflated to garbage time. Specially up until the Raiders game. 

At this point, all of this is hoping against hope that we fell *** backwards into a franchise QB that was overdrafted at the time, with a weak arm that didn't do NFL throws consistently. I hope that is the case but the chances are pretty low. 

[TheRealMcCoy]

22 minutes ago, Broadway Joe said:

You forgot one important thing. Hurts stats are wildly inflated to garbage time. Specially up until the Raiders game. 

I'm just curious, but how do you expect there to not be so much garbage time the first 7 weeks of the season when Gannon was playing the softest defense we ever saw against a bunch of really good to great QBs and Sirianni didn't utilize our run game and therefore offensive line to take pressure off Hurts and try to play clock control against these good to great QBs? Like 5 of the first 7 weeks we played were against playoff teams. We won the only 2 that weren't.

I agree with you that especially in the first half of the year when there was a lot of garbage time in the 4th quarter and I'm sure the pressure was off him quite a bit rather than the first 3 quarters he performed a lot better. Defense were also probably playing softer against us in the last quarters of those games too which is a fair thing to point out.

I'm just not sure all the blame falls on Hurts for us being in all those situations with garbage time should fall squarely on his shoulders. He has to take some of the blame for us being in those situations, sure, but the Eagles offensive coaching staff wasn't playing to the strength of the team and asking a first year starting QB in a brand new offense to go out and pass an average of 35 times a game those first 7 weeks against 5 playoff games with Gannon playing super soft defense allowing these really good to great QBs to march down the field for long scoring drives definitely deserves more of the blame.

[Broadway Joe]

3 minutes ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

I'm just curious, but how do you expect there to not be so much garbage time the first 7 weeks of the season when Gannon was playing the softest defense we ever saw against a bunch of really good to great QBs and Sirianni didn't utilize our run game and therefore offensive line to take pressure off Hurts and try to play clock control against these good to great QBs? Like 5 of the first 7 weeks we played were against playoff teams. We won the only 2 that weren't.

I agree with you that especially in the first half of the year when there was a lot of garbage time in the 4th quarter and I'm sure the pressure was off him quite a bit rather than the first 3 quarters he performed a lot better. Defense were also probably playing softer against us in the last quarters of those games too which is a fair thing to point out.

I'm just not sure all the blame falls on Hurts for us being in all those situations with garbage time should fall squarely on his shoulders. He has to take some of the blame for us being in those situations, sure, but the Eagles offensive coaching staff wasn't playing to the strength of the team and asking a first year starting QB in a brand new offense to go out and pass an average of 35 times a game those first 7 weeks against 5 playoff games with Gannon playing super soft defense allowing these really good to great QBs to march down the field for long scoring drives definitely deserves more of the blame.

It's not that whether I expect there to be garbage time or not and that would be irrelevant. That fact of the matter is that there was and it was to be taken into account when we discuss his bulk stats which is why I quoted Nabbs. 

Sure Sirianni and Gannon did what they did or didn't, and that's on them and they deserve their own criticism. Right now they are their own question mark on this team and that shouldn't be taken slightly. We still don't know if they are good coaches. 

But my post wasn't about who's to blame for the spankings we got, it's about how deceiving Hurts's sats are. 

[TheRealMcCoy]

6 hours ago, Jroc04 said:

For a guy to get 16 TDs one year and 30+ the next is a MASSIVE jump. You have to realize that it’s very optimistic sentiment.

It is. That's why I said to @Nabbs4u the hardest stat to reach from the projections he did was the 30 passing TDs.

It should also be noted that Hurts missed 2 of the 17 games. If not for that he probably hits about 20 passing TDs last year with us switching to a super heavy run offense from week 8 on. I think Sirianni definitely intends to pass it a decent bit more than he did in the second half of the season last year. I don't think he he wants his attempts to be like 34.5 as they were the first 7 weeks of the year, but probably definitely wants it higher than the 23.75 attempts he averaged after that. If you average out the whole 2021 season of 432 attempts in 15 games you get 28.8 attempts per game. I think the number for Hurts in 2022 will be between 29-31 passes per game. So maybe virtually the same as his 2020 averaged out, but probably a tick above. You don't add an AJ Brown unless you intend to pass it a bit more than we did in 2021.

I think 25-29 passing TDs should be more the projection or hope for this season, but there is an outside chance he could hit that 30 mark. I'm not betting on it, but its possible. I think the offense is gonna be really good, especially if Sanders can stay healthy. We saw Wentz go from 16 passing TDs as a rookie in 16 games on 607 attempts (!!!) to 33 passing TDs on 440 attempts in just 13 games. Not saying Hurts will double his passing TD production from last year like Wentz. I think that would be insane. But, you can draw some parallels like 2016 being Wentz's first season in the offense and them having a better idea of what passing concepts he works better on in 2017, the uptick in talent at WR, the work Wentz did with his mechanics in the offseason (Hurts worked with the same exact people this offseason), and maybe the most important was just the much better efficiency of the offense overall which got us in more scoring opportunities.

But, anyways...... back to some realistic projection:

I really like this outlook Gate City Sports on YouTube laid out for a potential stat line for Hurts this year. 

I'd be happy with something around this.

[TheRealMcCoy]

17 minutes ago, Broadway Joe said:

But my post wasn't about who's to blame for the spankings we got, it's about how deceiving Hurts's sats are. 

Fair enough.

I definitely do think that garbage time stats skew it a bit, but I think it skews it more in terms of  something like EPA per play rather than passing TDs.

[TheRealMcCoy]

But, yeah even with the added game I still don't think 30 passing TDs is easily achievable. Only 9 QBs did it last year. I think Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson could have been the 10th and 11th had they not missed 3 games. Wilson's finger injury in week 5 also severely hampered his passing afterwards. So basically about 9-11 QBs should be the expectation to hit that mark. That probably isn't changing this year and in fact I can see a lot more teams running the ball more this year, especially with Brandon Staley's 2 high safety influence spreading across the league inviting more advantageous running looks from light boxes.

Not to mention the Eagles have a fantastic running attack in the red zone and were super efficient scoring that way, so if we get down there a bunch I still expect us to be utilizing the rushing attack whether with Hurts or the RBs to score a lot of the time.

Edited June 13, 2022 by TheRealMcCoy

[ninjapirate]

1 hour ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

But, yeah even with the added game I still don't think 30 passing TDs is easily achievable. Only 9 QBs did it last year. I think Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson could have been the 10th and 11th had they not missed 3 games. Wilson's finger injury in week 5 also severely hampered his passing afterwards. So basically about 9-11 QBs should be the expectation to hit that mark. That probably isn't changing this year and in fact I can see a lot more teams running the ball more this year, especially with Brandon Staley's 2 high safety influence spreading across the league inviting more advantageous running looks from light boxes.

Not to mention the Eagles have a fantastic running attack in the red zone and were super efficient scoring that way, so if we get down there a bunch I still expect us to be utilizing the rushing attack whether with Hurts or the RBs to score a lot of the time.

If he only throws for 25 tds and rushes another 5 in that's still 30 tds for him in my book.

I'm not gonna hold the positive skill set of being able to score with his legs in the red zone against him

[Nabbs4u]

18 minutes ago, ninjapirate said:

If he only throws for 25 tds and rushes another 5 in that's still 30 tds for him in my book.

I'm not gonna hold the positive skill set of being able to score with his legs in the red zone against him

 

[Jeezla]

2 hours ago, Broadway Joe said:

6 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Already know the response I'm going to get but what the hell.

Josh Allen 20 TD to 37TD

Lamar Jackson 6 TD to 36TD

Cam Newton 18TD to 35TD

 

Since I know he's not Josh Allen blah blah blah. If Lamar and Cam can achieve those type of passing TD's with legit receiving  options to throw to if even for only a year, so can Hurts. Especially if the rumors of improved mechanics and footwork are true.

Also like to point out 25TD passing and 10TD rushing can still potentially lto a 4500/35 type stat line. Just saying.

Expand  

You forgot one important thing. Hurts stats are wildly inflated to garbage time. Specially up until the Raiders game. 

At this point, all of this is hoping against hope that we fell *** backwards into a franchise QB that was overdrafted at the time, with a weak arm that didn't do NFL throws consistently. I hope that is the case but the chances are pretty low. 

There's one other important thing: Those 3 other QB's he listed all have bazookas. Their arms are straight up more talented.

[Jroc04]

6 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Already know the response I'm going to get but what the hell.

Josh Allen 20 TD to 37TD

Lamar Jackson 6 TD to 36TD

Cam Newton 18TD to 35TD

 

Since I know he's not Josh Allen blah blah blah. If Lamar and Cam can achieve those type of passing TD's with legit receiving  options to throw to if even for only a year, so can Hurts. Especially if the rumors of improved mechanics and footwork are true.

Also like to point out 25TD passing and 10TD rushing can still potentially lto a 4500/35 type stat line. Just saying.

You’re making my point, Nabbs. You gave me three seasons where two guys were the MVP and one was the runner up. Lofty expectations for a limited guy. Do you really expect an MVP season?  I don’t think anyone would argue those guys are another tier or two more talented than Hurts. Those are tough years to duplicate, even for those guys. Is it possible? Sure. Will it happen? Doubt it. To think he’s just gonna roll out 4500 yards and 35 TDs season and just hop up to top 3-5 QB status is a large jump. It’s ok to expect something less and let him gradually get to that level if that’s what you feel. I’m just here to tell you to temper that. It’s most likely not happening. 
 

Do you know how rare 10 TDs is for a QB? It doesn’t just happen all the time. Sure Jalen has done it once already and it may continue but you can’t pencil him in for an auto 10 TDs a year rushing. Outside of Cam, it’s happened like 6 times or something. It’s not something he’s going to routinely get for sure. Maybe not even repeat again. With his natural progression he will move away from using his legs if he is to succeed. If you’re a young kid trying to make it, do what works. But he has to develop. Running QBs aren’t long for the league. The good ones figure it out. The lesser ones rely on it and get figured out. It’s cool he’s using his gifts to win games in the meantime but it’s not going to last.  

[Jeezla]

I'm expecting Hurts to statistically look like 2020 Lamar, but with 500-600 more passing yards and a little less rushing yards. I'm hoping he looks like 2001 Jeff Garcia with way more rushing yards. I think Jalen and Jeff have similar arms.

2001 Jeff Garcia
call it 63% completions
3538 yards 32 TDs, 12 int. 245 rushing yards, 5 td's.

Jeff had prime T.O., but Hurts has more overall weapons + middle class mans T.O. + modern pass rules + a 17th game.
 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Jeezla

[Jroc04]

To me, he’s got a lot of Russ in him. If he can mimic his early career, (specifically 2014 Russ: About 4300 yards 63% (3500 pass, 800 rush/ 26 TDs, 7 INTs (20 pass, 6 rush) I’d be thrilled. That’s something to build off of. 

[TheRealMcCoy]

8 minutes ago, Jroc04 said:

To me, he’s got a lot of Russ in him. If he can mimic his early career, (specifically 2014 Russ: About 4300 yards 63% (3500 pass, 800 rush/ 26 TDs, 7 INTs (20 pass, 6 rush) I’d be thrilled. That’s something to build off of. 

Yeah. Russ doesn't really like to target the middle of the field either lol.

I think Russ coming into the league was definitely a better pure passer going through reads. Hurts is a better runner for sure.

Both of them are really good when they scramble. 

My biggest hope for Jalen is he's better from the pocket this year and more accurate on deep passes.

I'd be very cool with a stat line similar to that though. 

Also, something to remember is Jalen Hurts is going into his 24 year old season. Wilson's 24 year old season was as a rookie. He was 26 for his 2014 season.

[EaglesFlySBChampsHigh]

5 hours ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

It is. That's why I said to @Nabbs4u the hardest stat to reach from the projections he did was the 30 passing TDs.

It should also be noted that Hurts missed 2 of the 17 games. If not for that he probably hits about 20 passing TDs last year with us switching to a super heavy run offense from week 8 on. I think Sirianni definitely intends to pass it a decent bit more than he did in the second half of the season last year. I don't think he he wants his attempts to be like 34.5 as they were the first 7 weeks of the year, but probably definitely wants it higher than the 23.75 attempts he averaged after that. If you average out the whole 2021 season of 432 attempts in 15 games you get 28.8 attempts per game. I think the number for Hurts in 2022 will be between 29-31 passes per game. So maybe virtually the same as his 2020 averaged out, but probably a tick above. You don't add an AJ Brown unless you intend to pass it a bit more than we did in 2021.

I think 25-29 passing TDs should be more the projection or hope for this season, but there is an outside chance he could hit that 30 mark. I'm not betting on it, but its possible. I think the offense is gonna be really good, especially if Sanders can stay healthy. We saw Wentz go from 16 passing TDs as a rookie in 16 games on 607 attempts (!!!) to 33 passing TDs on 440 attempts in just 13 games. Not saying Hurts will double his passing TD production from last year like Wentz. I think that would be insane. But, you can draw some parallels like 2016 being Wentz's first season in the offense and them having a better idea of what passing concepts he works better on in 2017, the uptick in talent at WR, the work Wentz did with his mechanics in the offseason (Hurts worked with the same exact people this offseason), and maybe the most important was just the much better efficiency of the offense overall which got us in more scoring opportunities.

But, anyways...... back to some realistic projection:

I really like this outlook Gate City Sports on YouTube laid out for a potential stat line for Hurts this year. 

I'd be happy with something around this.

It's that including rushing TDs? If it's not then add in about 6+ and that's an outstanding season and QB1 for us for a long long time

Edited June 14, 2022 by EaglesFlySBChampsHigh