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The Jalen Hurts Thread


TheRealMcCoy

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  1. 1. Jalen Hurts will be a top ___ QB in 2022?


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  • Poll closed on 07/26/2022 at 06:59 AM

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2 hours ago, EaglesFlySBChampsHigh said:

It's that including rushing TDs? If it's not then add in about 6+ and that's an outstanding season and QB1 for us for a long long time

Nah. That 26 TDs is only passing, cause he was comparing Wilson, Allen and Prescott’s year 2 to year 3 passing numbers then showed Jalen’s year 2 and this projection he had for him for year 3.

Here is the full video that graphic is from.

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13 hours ago, Jeezla said:

I'm expecting Hurts to statistically look like 2020 Lamar, but with 500-600 more passing yards and a little less rushing yards. I'm hoping he looks like 2001 Jeff Garcia with way more rushing yards. I think Jalen and Jeff have similar arms.

2001 Jeff Garcia
call it 63% completions
3538 yards 32 TDs, 12 int. 245 rushing yards, 5 td's.

Jeff had prime T.O., but Hurts has more overall weapons + middle class mans T.O. + modern pass rules + a 17th game.
 

If he were to put those numbers, I'd be sold.

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2 hours ago, EaglesFlySBChampsHigh said:

Gotcha and thanks again

Of course 👌🏻

4 hours ago, Broadway Joe said:

If he were to put those numbers, I'd be sold.

I just want to see improvement operating from the pocket, deep ball accuracy, throwing more with anticipation and going through reads quicker rather than just raw numbers. His numbers improving and him not showing enough growth in a lot of those areas wouldn’t do it for me as far as being sold. If we can get marked improvement in some of those areas and a decent jump in his raw stats, then I’ll be sold and excited for 2023 with 2 firsts we can use to bolster the rest of the roster even further.

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BTW Hurts is eligible for an extension after this season.

Lets just say he shows good improvement in quite a few of the areas he needs to and the stats take a pretty good jump. Do you think the Eagles will or should extend him maybe at a lower average per year or wait until after he does it again in 2023 and sign him or franchise tag in 2024 to a bigger contract with a higher average?

Paying Wentz early has me scarred. I knocked the Cowboys for not giving Prescott his long term extension earlier like we did with Wentz as they slapped him with a couple franchise tags and look how that worked out for both sides lol.

I think I would probably say wait until Hurts proves it for at least 2 years in a row before locking him in for a long term deal.

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40 minutes ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

BTW Hurts is eligible for an extension after this season.

Lets just say he shows good improvement in quite a few of the areas he needs to and the stats take a pretty good jump. Do you think the Eagles will or should extend him maybe at a lower average per year or wait until after he does it again in 2023 and sign him or franchise tag in 2024 to a bigger contract with a higher average?

Paying Wentz early has me scarred. I knocked the Cowboys for not giving Prescott his long term extension earlier like we did with Wentz as they slapped him with a couple franchise tags and look how that worked out for both sides lol.

I think I would probably say wait until Hurts proves it for at least 2 years in a row before locking him in for a long term deal.

Yea I think it would be silly to extend him after this year. I imagine he’ll be improved hopefully. Unless it’s like someone flipped a switch on him then I’d rather wait it out. There’s going to be opportunity with the 2 1sts. I’d like to see what kind of offers present themselves first before committing to him. 2 solid, improving years would give me the confidence as well to give him an extension. It would really have to be a no brainer though. The only thing worse than not having a QB is having a QB you think is franchise worthy and he’s not. 

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Depends on his season, overall improvement as a QB in Sirianni's system on what "his asking" price would be?

If it's north of $40M basic going rate for FQB moving forward,  they probably wait another season. If it's a short term deal 2-3 years $30-35M allowing another restructure down the line if proven the real deal for the next decade. I could see Howie trying to get Hurts on a "early" discount rather then "proving it again". 

In other words not a Dak/Cousins approach.  Which inevitably cost Dallass , Washington and Minnesota way more more in the end.

Dak could of been a 29-31M a year QB if signed before Wentz and Goff. Now he sucks as a 40+'r!!! See how the season plays out good or bad, go from there. Only you all think QB is in play for the draft in 2023. I don't.  Think the FO/Staff are hedging the bets on Hurts moving forward.  But who 🤷‍♂️

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

20-24???

dead to me GIF

@Jeezla

What rank would you have given him for last year? 20 is still a step up from 25-27. I think he takes a baby step, but is basically already closed to maxed out as a passer, because I don't really see his decision making or processing speed improving even if his accuracy does.


The only QB's I'm definitely not taking over Hurts, if I was building a franchise from scratch:

Wentz
Goff
Jones
Darnold
Lock
Mariota
Trubisky/Pickett
Matt Ryan (arm is shot, imo)
Jameis (just too weird)

I think Hurts will be right around #20 in passing yards and passing TD's (3550 passing yards and 22 passing TD's my guess), but there won't be much gap between the #18 guy and the #22 guy. He will arguably be top 20, but not slam dunk top 20/closer to top 15.

 

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2 hours ago, Daimonas said:

not gonna lie jalen is becoming so likeable that i'm near the point where even if he doesn't improve i wouldn't be upset at him playing for the eagles.

I'm at that point too, but game day will come and I will see his floaters and underthrows and that will go out the window. 

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18 hours ago, Jeezla said:

What rank would you have given him for last year? 20 is still a step up from 25-27.

I'd argue that he was top 20 on last year alone.

Maybe not top 20 strictly as a passer, but when factoring in his legs into how he plays the position. If you don't factor in what Lamar or Kyler do with their legs they wouldn't be as high on peoples lists as they are. Even Josh Allen with his legs boosts his ranking. He was only 4 yards rushing behind Jackson and 21 yards behind Hurts. Granted he played 2 games more than Hurts and 5 games more than Jackson. Still Allen's legs are a big part of the Bills offense. They do a bunch of designed runs for him.

That's why seeing that you voted for 20-24 was slightly disappointing to me. I can understand the pessimism though. I know I'm glass half full almost always and you're almost always glass half empty. 

Not saying you are wrong. Nobody can for sure project what he will do this year. I know I've said he has got better as a passer every single year since his true freshman year at Bama and I still believe that to be true, but he could also stay the same or even regress. I think it will be hard to regress with the addition of AJ Brown and the OL he'll have in front of him which could be better than last year, but something interesting I heard from a PFF podcast today is they were talking about an article up on their site which I don't have access to. Basically what the article is about is the difference between guys clean pocket grade and under pressure grade. Guys at the top of the list are guys who had a big difference between those two grades and the ones at the bottom were guys who had the least difference between the two grades. So their overall point was the guys at the top of the list who had the biggest difference like lets say a high grade with a clean pocket and low grade against pressure like Jimmy (#1) and Tua (#2) have reason for optimism based on the volatility of grade vs. pressure that they could be in for a better season. Whereas guys at the bottom of the list who had really good grades against pressure, but whose grade in the clean pocket wasn't all that much better could be in for some regression if that grade against pressure falls off some which is highly likely whereas grade in a clean pocket is more stable.

The QBs at the bottom of the list for difference between clean pocket vs. pressure?

26. Josh Allen (Has been terrific against pressure the past 2 seasons, but last year his clean pocket grade fell off from 2020)

27. Dak Prescott 

28. Jared Goff

29. Daniel Jones

31. Carson Wentz

32. Jalen Hurts 

They said that Carson and Jalen both graded in the 70s from a clean pocket. Wentz wasn't that bad against pressure and Hurts was pretty good against pressure. Like they said for Allen his grade against pressure didn't fall off from 2020 to 2021, but its a volatile grade/stat that you can't just assume is gonna stay the same cause its hard to have a high grade against pressure.

I do think Jalen thrives more outside the pocket, so it makes sense he's good against pressure. I'm not sure if I talked about it here or not yet, but Jalen's mechanical issues were much more prevalent from the pocket than when he broke it. 

I went back and watched some Eagles games after he tweeted this originally and it was definitely true.

Hurts footwork and lower body mechanics as a pocket passer might be more important to fixing his upper body stuff like tightening up the release which I think OTAs showed he did.

As you see in the Twitter post and the YouTube clip (I set the video to the part with Sirianni) you can hear Nick talk a lot about how he's worked on his footwork and how he sees it getting better, so that's an encouraging sign.

I do agree with you that his arm isn't the greatest. He's not gonna have a top 10 arm in the league. With his ability to scramble and make plays happen outside the pocket I don't think he needs a top 10 arm to be a successful QB. Would I love for him to have one? Absolutely. I think having a super strong arm lets you get away with a lot even when your mechanics or timing aren't the greatest. Mahomes can do some stuff he shouldn't be able to just cause of his arm talent.

The area Jalen ultimately has to improve isn't as a scrambler/improviser as he had the highest EPA in that regard, but you see his passing from the pocket fell woefully short of the other top scramblers.

I think the point about him being in the same offense for a 2nd year in a row for the first time since he was a kid in HS is a big deal and I've brought it up a lot since the end of last season. I also think the Eagles receivers and play callers failed him a good portion of the time like @TheHonestNFL brings up in the first couple tweets here. I think teams around the league will adjust more this year to take away Jalen's running opportunities, but I also think the staff having had a full season with him to learn what kind of passing concepts he excels most at is huge for him going into his 2nd year as the starter and his comfortability and how quick he sees things in the offense will just be a decent amount better than it was in 2021.

I also don't think it can really be understated how HUGE of an addition that AJ Brown really was. If he can stay healthy he's gonna be a big force multiplier for us beyond just taking pressure off DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. It will allow the Eagles to incorporate more middle read concepts like @TheHonestNFL said in the last tweet. I really think AJ will play a decent amount in the slot for us. He played at least like 30% or so of his snaps there for the Titans and I wanna say his snaps in the slot had been going up since he was a rookie. I really think Quez was miscasted as the main slot receiver last season. I think his speed is better utilized on the outside where he can stretch the defense and open stuff up underneath for guys who are better at operating through traffic. I'm glad Quez got that experience, cause he'll still see some snaps from the slot, but hopefully it will be a lot less than what we saw in 2021. Sirianni wants his receivers to be interchangeable with the spots they play, so its not like gaining experience on how to operate in the slot was a bad thing for Quez.

Like I said before there is a chance he could stay the same or even regress, but I think the latter is just gonna be hard for him to do with how hard he has supposedly worked this offseason on his mechanics, comfortability in the same offense for another year, and the addition of Brown which should open up a lot more of the playbook.

Now, does that mean I still don't have questions about Hurts ultimate ceiling? Sure I do. I saw enough progress throughout the year despite the atrocious playoff game to the point where I think he can be an unanimous top 20 QB after 2021 and might sneak into the top 15 if things go well. He's in a great spot with what we've surrounded him with personnel wise. 

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

BTW... let's just look at some QB rankings of where Jalen Hurts fell for the 2021 season:

Pro Football Focus grade: 10th.... EPA rank 13th...... for PFF's total rank of 11th

Football Outsiders (DYAR/DVOA): 17th/17th

Pro Football Network: 17th 

NFL.com QB Index: 17th

ESPN.com (Tannenbaum): 16th

247.com: 17th

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I'll stop there with the rankings, but you get the point. Basically everywhere had him in the top 20.

I'd say if Jalen Hurts is in that 20-24 range like you voted for after 2022, then that's a significant disappointment.

We would be looking hard at using our 2 first rounders + 2024 picks to trade up in that case.

I think Jalen needs to be AT LEAST a solidified top 20 QB.. if not widely seen as top 15 to keep the team from looking to replace him.

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