My offer to Terry McLaruin

[DCNative]

3 hours ago, offbyone said:

Maybe.  There is always another WR deal to come, but frankly how many more comps does Terry or washington need to find a number?  Not to mention there were deals signed this offseason by players who are clearly better than him so a top end should be pretty clear.  

 

Who was better than Terry that was willing to sign with Washington? 

[MikeT14]

28 minutes ago, DCNative said:

Who was better than Terry that was willing to sign with Washington? 

 

29 minutes ago, DCNative said:

Who was better than Terry that was willing to sign with Washington? 

Incredible strawman 

[offbyone]

30 minutes ago, DCNative said:

Who was better than Terry that was willing to sign with Washington? 

What does that mean?  I would assume we never tried to sign anyone, so you will never know the answer to that question.  Hill was traded.  Which WR did we try to sign who didn't?

I am happy to pay a premium and I think we will be paying quite a premium if we give him deals in line with Brown, Cupp, Diggs which I believe you are pitching.  But do you also think we should give Terry a deal on par with Adams or Hill if that is all he would take?  Do you think there is no appropriate limit?

Let's be real.  Terry McLaurin is absolutely #1 WR in this league, but saying he is top 10 is a reach which we rationalize based upon projections of him having a better qb.  Paying him like top 5 is a big reach, but paying him like top 3 is a ridiculous reach.  

[lavar703]

2 hours ago, offbyone said:

What does that mean?  I would assume we never tried to sign anyone, so you will never know the answer to that question.  Hill was traded.  Which WR did we try to sign who didn't?

I am happy to pay a premium and I think we will be paying quite a premium if we give him deals in line with Brown, Cupp, Diggs which I believe you are pitching.  But do you also think we should give Terry a deal on par with Adams or Hill if that is all he would take?  Do you think there is no appropriate limit?

Let's be real.  Terry McLaurin is absolutely #1 WR in this league, but saying he is top 10 is a reach which we rationalize based upon projections of him having a better qb.  Paying him like top 5 is a big reach, but paying him like top 3 is a ridiculous reach.  

I mean, the QBs we’ve fielded have absolutely hurt his production. Even when he’s basically the only receiving threat we have most teams can’t stop him. Do you think his numbers don’t immediately balloon if he were dealt to the Packers? You don’t get the benefit of paying your star where you think he fits in based on the rankings of players at his position. Contracts have never worked that way with star players. 

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I mean, the QBs we’ve fielded have absolutely hurt his production. Even when he’s basically the only receiving threat we have most teams can’t stop him. Do you think his numbers don’t immediately balloon if he were dealt to the Packers?

Absolutely true. But that’s also true of lots of guys who aren’t in ideal situations. A.J. Brown was on the most run-heavy teams in the league, for example. How would his numbers have been affected if he was on a team that hoisted it 600+ times a year? Or even if he was on Washington, which attempted 130 more passes than Tennessee over the last two seasons? Allen Robinson has never played with a good QB, he’s had 3 seasons better than anything Terry has done, and (though he seems like he’d be old) is only two years older than Terry — he’s never gotten a long-term deal and he had to settle for a 3/$46M deal this offseason after one down year. 

Paying guys a price equivalent to what you hope they’ll become — rather than what they’ve proven to be in the past — is really the number one way to get stuck holding a bad deal. That’s how you end up paying good money to guys like Brandon Lloyd and Paul Richardson, because you convince yourself that you will get something out of them that their previous team wasn’t able to. And usually you can’t. 

You’re always gambling when you give a long-term contract, on the hope that your guy stays healthy as he gets older. When you’re also gambling that his numbers will take a significant uptick in *new situation*, you’re adding even more risk to the proposition. At least with Terry, he’s not having to change systems/organizations, so that minimizes some of the risk. But if you’re paying him to be a 1300 yard receiver (or something like that), you’re still rolling the dice on (a) his health and (b) him finding some magic with Wentz that takes him from very good to borderline superstar. That’s a fairly big ask for a 27-year-old. 

In the end, I’m obviously willing to overpay to keep him. I think the A.J. Brown contract terms are a major overpay (for Terry and for Brown himself), and I would be willing to go beyond that even. Coming into this offseason, I was at around 4/$85M for Terry based on where things stood at that time, so I’m plainly open to going well beyond where I think it really should be. But if you pay him at a rate equivalent to his absolute ceiling, there’s nothing but downside in the deal for you. There’s gotta be some possibility that you get a “win” out of the deal, to balance out the very real risk that it turns into a huge “loss.”

[DCNative]

13 hours ago, offbyone said:

What does that mean?  I would assume we never tried to sign anyone, so you will never know the answer to that question.  Hill was traded.  Which WR did we try to sign who didn't?

I am happy to pay a premium and I think we will be paying quite a premium if we give him deals in line with Brown, Cupp, Diggs which I believe you are pitching.  But do you also think we should give Terry a deal on par with Adams or Hill if that is all he would take?  Do you think there is no appropriate limit?

Let's be real.  Terry McLaurin is absolutely #1 WR in this league, but saying he is top 10 is a reach which we rationalize based upon projections of him having a better qb.  Paying him like top 5 is a big reach, but paying him like top 3 is a ridiculous reach.  

My offer for Terry is below Adams and Hill so I see no ridiculous reach. I see a fair deal for a #1 WR. 

[lavar703]

17 hours ago, e16bball said:

Absolutely true. But that’s also true of lots of guys who aren’t in ideal situations. A.J. Brown was on the most run-heavy teams in the league, for example. How would his numbers have been affected if he was on a team that hoisted it 600+ times a year? Or even if he was on Washington, which attempted 130 more passes than Tennessee over the last two seasons? Allen Robinson has never played with a good QB, he’s had 3 seasons better than anything Terry has done, and (though he seems like he’d be old) is only two years older than Terry — he’s never gotten a long-term deal and he had to settle for a 3/$46M deal this offseason after one down year. 

Paying guys a price equivalent to what you hope they’ll become — rather than what they’ve proven to be in the past — is really the number one way to get stuck holding a bad deal. That’s how you end up paying good money to guys like Brandon Lloyd and Paul Richardson, because you convince yourself that you will get something out of them that their previous team wasn’t able to. And usually you can’t. 

You’re always gambling when you give a long-term contract, on the hope that your guy stays healthy as he gets older. When you’re also gambling that his numbers will take a significant uptick in *new situation*, you’re adding even more risk to the proposition. At least with Terry, he’s not having to change systems/organizations, so that minimizes some of the risk. But if you’re paying him to be a 1300 yard receiver (or something like that), you’re still rolling the dice on (a) his health and (b) him finding some magic with Wentz that takes him from very good to borderline superstar. That’s a fairly big ask for a 27-year-old. 

In the end, I’m obviously willing to overpay to keep him. I think the A.J. Brown contract terms are a major overpay (for Terry and for Brown himself), and I would be willing to go beyond that even. Coming into this offseason, I was at around 4/$85M for Terry based on where things stood at that time, so I’m plainly open to going well beyond where I think it really should be. But if you pay him at a rate equivalent to his absolute ceiling, there’s nothing but downside in the deal for you. There’s gotta be some possibility that you get a “win” out of the deal, to balance out the very real risk that it turns into a huge “loss.”

I mean, I agree. I think AJ Brown, Metcalf, Debo, Terry etc are in a group together. But you can’t just let Terry walk and I don’t see how trading him makes sense for a team trying to become a contender. I don’t want this team to become the Nationals. I don’t want the stars we have to walk away immediately once their deal is up. Either commit to building this thing or just blow it up, trade everyone and start over. 

[DCNative]

2 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I mean, I agree. I think AJ Brown, Metcalf, Debo, Terry etc are in a group together. But you can’t just let Terry walk and I don’t see how trading him makes sense for a team trying to become a contender. I don’t want this team to become the Nationals. I don’t want the stars we have to walk away immediately once their deal is up. Either commit to building this thing or just blow it up, trade everyone and start over. 

Why and How are you gonna start over with a roster full of talent?

It's way easier, smarter, and keeps fans interested if you just Win! Terry is the Best piece of Talent the offense has. While the Defense is built and has been drafted to lead the way. We saw what this front 4 can do when playing at its best against Wentz and the Eagles in 2020, opening week. They were extremely dominate! Re-sign your Star Proven Captain WR and get this offense to the level it's needs to be to compete for a Super Bowl. The drafted Dotson who has been wrote and talked about extremely well. Let him be a dependable #2 who can take some pressure off of Terry while also opening up the playbook for others. This creates more opportunities for guys like Samuel, Dotson, Logan, Bates, Turner, Gibson, Brown, Sims, ect. It's makes zero sense not to sign Terry to a reasonable deal like the one I proposed. 

If Terry is the one not interested in resigning, come out and say that. If anything needs to be blown up it's Rivera and His Panther Staff.

[lavar703]

2 hours ago, DCNative said:

Why and How are you gonna start over with a roster full of talent?

It's way easier, smarter, and keeps fans interested if you just Win! Terry is the Best piece of Talent the offense has. While the Defense is built and has been drafted to lead the way. We saw what this front 4 can do when playing at its best against Wentz and the Eagles in 2020, opening week. They were extremely dominate! Re-sign your Star Proven Captain WR and get this offense to the level it's needs to be to compete for a Super Bowl. The drafted Dotson who has been wrote and talked about extremely well. Let him be a dependable #2 who can take some pressure off of Terry while also opening up the playbook for others. This creates more opportunities for guys like Samuel, Dotson, Logan, Bates, Turner, Gibson, Brown, Sims, ect. It's makes zero sense not to sign Terry to a reasonable deal like the one I proposed. 

If Terry is the one not interested in resigning, come out and say that. If anything needs to be blown up it's Rivera and His Panther Staff.

If the idea is to never pay that talent then you aren’t really building anything. I was no fan of Kirk but literally no one has done what we did with Kirk. I know that’s not on this staff but they’ve just continued the tradition.

Scherff was the only All Pro this team had in 20+ years and we let him walk. They’re spending nothing and being lauded for their cap situation and yet still can’t pay their best player. You can’t call players core guys and then do nothing to keep them. So if you aren’t going to pay Terry, who are you going to pay? And if you aren’t going to pay guys like Terry, Scherff, Payne etc what are we really building here and what’s the point of continuing down that path with this group? 

[DCNative]

2 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

If the idea is to never pay that talent then you aren’t really building anything. I was no fan of Kirk but literally no one has done what we did with Kirk. I know that’s not on this staff but they’ve just continued the tradition.

Scherff was the only All Pro this team had in 20+ years and we let him walk. They’re spending nothing and being lauded for their cap situation and yet still can’t pay their best player. You can’t call players core guys and then do nothing to keep them. So if you aren’t going to pay Terry, who are you going to pay? And if you aren’t going to pay guys like Terry, Scherff, Payne etc what are we really building here and what’s the point of continuing down that path with this group? 

They can resign but seem to choose otherwise . I'll add Terry is 2nd in receptions and receiving yards out of his draft class. You can't not resign him and think fans will continue to support you or buy the words Ron are saying. 

[offbyone]

18 hours ago, DCNative said:

My offer for Terry is below Adams and Hill so I see no ridiculous reach. I see a fair deal for a #1 WR. 

So you are saying you agree with me then.  Good.

[turtle28]

@e16bball I agree with most of your post but using Brandon Lloyd was a bad example. Gibbs didn’t like him/play him over practice habits or being late for practice or something to that effect.

When Lloyd went to play for Denv w/ Kyle Orton as his QB in 2010 he had 77 recs, 1448 yds & 11 TDs. In 2011 when in Denv & St Louis & when Lloyd was in NE w/ Brady in 2011, Lloyd had back to back 70 Plus catch 900 plus yard seasons.

Paul Richardson could play, he just couldn’t stay healthy. 

[DCNative]

8 hours ago, offbyone said:

So you are saying you agree with me then.  Good.

Did you read the opening post where my offer is? Seems if we agree, this conclusion could've come way earlier. 

[offbyone]

2 hours ago, DCNative said:

Did you read the opening post where my offer is? Seems if we agree, this conclusion could've come way earlier. 

I did but I clearly wasn't addressing and neither was your odd unexplained response :

On 6/24/2022 at 2:07 PM, DCNative said:

Who was better than Terry that was willing to sign with Washington? 

Outside of your comments that I don't follow, I do think Brown's deal would be an overpayment.  I think Brown was overpaid and Brown is a better WR than Terry.  That is the highest comp I would consider using to write this contract and while I think we would be overpaying, that doesn't mean I wouldn't do it.

However, your offer is paying him significantly more.  It is hard to evaluate your offer because it doesn't break down year by year how the dead cap aligns.  My concern is the guarantee.  Your guarantee of 85 million would be far and the way the highest in the WR market.  It also likely makes it harder to manage from a cap perspective as these types of contracts are designed to be reworked to finagle the cap hit down the line, but with that much guarantee it is hard to rework.

[DCNative]

1 hour ago, offbyone said:

I did but I clearly wasn't addressing and neither was your odd unexplained response :

Outside of your comments that I don't follow, I do think Brown's deal would be an overpayment.  I think Brown was overpaid and Brown is a better WR than Terry.  That is the highest comp I would consider using to write this contract and while I think we would be overpaying, that doesn't mean I wouldn't do it.

However, your offer is paying him significantly more.  It is hard to evaluate your offer because it doesn't break down year by year how the dead cap aligns.  My concern is the guarantee.  Your guarantee of 85 million would be far and the way the highest in the WR market.  It also likely makes it harder to manage from a cap perspective as these types of contracts are designed to be reworked to finagle the cap hit down the line, but with that much guarantee it is hard to rework.

Can you explain how his guaranteed money effects future contracts? I thought once he signed the contract, that money would automatically become his. 85÷5 is 17. 17 million per year for Terry is a good deal. Leaving 35 million left to pay over 5 years once he signed the deal. Again there is no Other Contract on Washingtons books that would make this contract a bad Cap Situation. I understand you don't agree with the deal because it's more than Brown and the guaranteed money. Yet that's where They or You should try to negotiate those perspectives before ending contract talks, trading him, or placing the Franchise Tag on him consecutively only for a 3rd pick in return.