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What's the largest point spread we could realistically see in a Super Bowl nowadays?


Bolts223

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It used to be pretty common to see point-spreads of of 7+ as recently as the 2000's.

1994 49ers were 19-point favorites over the Chargers

1995 Cowboys were 13-point favorites over the Steelers

1996 Packers were 14-point favorites over the Pats

1997 Packers were 11-point favorites over the Broncos

1998 Broncos were 7.5-point favorites over the Falcons

1999 Rams were 7-point favorites over the Titans

2001 Rams were 14-point favorites over the Patriots

2003 Patriots were 7-point favorites over the Panthers

2004 Patriots were 7-point favorites over the Eagles

2006 Colts were 7-point favorites over the Bears

2007 Patriots were 12.5-point favorites over the Giants

2008 Steelers were 7-point favorites over the Cardinals

 

From 2009-present there hasn't been one Super Bowl point spread that was higher than 6. The largest in that time were Patriots/Eagles in 2017 and Panthers/Broncos in 2015. (Both 5.5)

 

So let's say we got a dynamic similar to Super Bowl 36 (Patriots/Rams) or Super Bowl 42 (Patriots/Giants) where one team looked to be an historic juggernaut that had already won a recent Super Bowl(s) and won 14-15+ games that season with a 200+ point differential. The other team was a scrappy underdog that won 9-10 games in the regular season and squeaked into the playoffs only to pull off some major upsets on their way to the Super Bowl. The other team had a not-elite QB and hadn't been in the playoffs in several years prior to the season they made the Super Bowl.

 

What do you think the spread in such a game would be by today's standards?

Edited by Bolts223
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17 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I'd guess probably 7 or 7.5 if a team like the Dolphins for example made a run and played a team like the Rams or the Bucs. 

 

 

Currently I see the Bills favored over the Vikings by 8 this season and that's close to the type of match up you're taking about. But the game is in Buffalo, so I agree about 7 there for a semi-realistic match up.

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9 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

 

 

Currently I see the Bills favored over the Vikings by 8 this season and that's close to the type of match up you're taking about. But the game is in Buffalo, so I agree about 7 there for a semi-realistic match up.

A better example might be like what if it was the Rams/Bucs from the NFC. They went 15-2/16-1 and had a 250+ point differential. Stafford/Brady have MVP Type seasons. They completely roll the teams they face in the NFC playoffs by scores of something like 38-7 and 42-3.

Then let's say you have a Colts team that goes 9-8/10-7 and wins the AFC South with a +20-30 point differential. Matt Ryan has a top 12-14ish QB year. Let's say they get lucky with some favorable matchups/teams like the Chiefs/Bills choking and end up getting to the Super Bowl in a way where the general public isn't overly impressed by them. (Really close games, other team kinda beats themselves, fluky type of wins, etc.)

What would be the spread of that Super Bowl?

Edited by Bolts223
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32 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

Currently I see the Bills favored over the Vikings by 8 this season and that's close to the type of match up you're taking about. But the game is in Buffalo, so I agree about 7 there for a semi-realistic match up.

It's just a little different because Cousins is at least above average while Tua hasn't been great.

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24 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

A better example might be like what if it was the Rams/Bucs from the NFC. They went 15-2/16-1 and had a 250+ point differential. Stafford/Brady have MVP Type seasons. They completely roll the teams they face in the NFC playoffs by scores of something like 38-7 and 42-3.

Then let's say you have a Colts team that goes 9-8/10-7 and wins the AFC South with a +20-30 point differential. Matt Ryan has a top 12-14ish QB year. Let's say they get lucky with some favorable matchups/teams like the Chiefs/Bills choking and end up getting to the Super Bowl in a way where the general public isn't overly impressed by them. (Really close games, other team kinda beats themselves, fluky type of wins, etc.)

What would be the spread of that Super Bowl?

Hard to say because if the Colts made a run to the Super Bowl it would almost certainly be because of their running game and defense. I'd guess like 5.5

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The betting public is more sophisticated and has more access to information with social media NFLN and everything else.

If you have a 7th seed get fumble/tipped pass lucky 3 weeks in a row and have a few key injuries late in the Championship game and the other 1 seed just rolls then I could see another 14 point spread but short of that its just not that likely.

 

Look at KC (2 but lost 1 on tiebreaker) vs 7 seed Philly last year.

KC did whatever they wanted on offense but still only won by 12 in week 4.

Now have Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce injured in the NFCCG win and you might get a 14 point line vs KC in that theoretical 2022 SB.

 

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1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

We shouldn't have been favored by 14 in that game. We played them earlier in the year and won 24-17.

I think if that game was played again now, the spread would be between 7-10. I think that's realistically the largest you'll see these days.

The 2001 Patriots were also 10-point underdogs to the Kordell Stewart Steelers in the AFC Championship game that year.

I think it was mostly just because the perception of Belichick was already a failed Head Coach and Brady was just some 2nd year 6th round who shouldn't even be starting over Bledsoe. Add that to the fact they went 5-11 the season before and hadn't made the playoffs in 3 seasons at that point they were just the ultimate Cinderella story at the time. Not to mention that a lot of people thought that it was BS that they even got by the Raiders in the Tuck Rule Game.

Which is why it's interesting to think what a spread in a matchup like that would be today.

Edited by Bolts223
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28 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

The betting public is more sophisticated and has more access to information with social media NFLN and everything else.

If you have a 7th seed get fumble/tipped pass lucky 3 weeks in a row and have a few key injuries late in the Championship game and the other 1 seed just rolls then I could see another 14 point spread but short of that its just not that likely.

 

Look at KC (2 but lost 1 on tiebreaker) vs 7 seed Philly last year.

KC did whatever they wanted on offense but still only won by 12 in week 4.

Now have Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce injured in the NFCCG win and you might get a 14 point line vs KC in that theoretical 2022 SB.

 

Even though KC is the most consistently great team year to year, they def weren't a juggernaut last year in the way that the 2001 Rams/2007 Patriots were.

It would have to be a team that many are saying could be one of the greatest of all time vs a team that most people have no idea how they got there.

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1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

We shouldn't have been favored by 14 in that game. We played them earlier in the year and won 24-17.

I think if that game was played again now, the spread would be between 7-10. I think that's realistically the largest you'll see these days.

My brother literally betted $1k on that game with full confidence. His reasoning: Belichick was gonna embarass Martz in the coaching battle.

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8 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

We shouldn't have been favored by 14 in that game. We played them earlier in the year and won 24-17.

I think if that game was played again now, the spread would be between 7-10. I think that's realistically the largest you'll see these days.

The way the Patriots got to the Super Bowl probably had something to do with it. Tuck rule in addition to beating the Steelers with two special teams TDs. Didn't blow anyone out in the postseason. 

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9 hours ago, SkippyX said:

The betting public is more sophisticated and has more access to information with social media NFLN and everything else.

If you have a 7th seed get fumble/tipped pass lucky 3 weeks in a row and have a few key injuries late in the Championship game and the other 1 seed just rolls then I could see another 14 point spread but short of that its just not that likely.

 

Look at KC (2 but lost 1 on tiebreaker) vs 7 seed Philly last year.

KC did whatever they wanted on offense but still only won by 12 in week 4.

Now have Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce injured in the NFCCG win and you might get a 14 point line vs KC in that theoretical 2022 SB.

 

On the other hand the Chiefs were 12.5 point favorites against the 7th seeded Steelers and easily covered, even though the Steelers got some “window dressing” scores

The Chiefs team that went into Philly was far from a juggernaut, they were allowing over 30 points a game at that point.

2021 just didn’t have any super dominant team overall. The Packers had a nice record but weren’t a 2001 Rams type team 

Super Bowl blowouts are alot more rare than they were back in the day. I’m trying to remember the last time a significant underdog (-6) was blown out in the SB. Maybe SB 41, if we consider the Bears a significant underdog and a 29-17 game a blowout

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Its not about the eventual results. Its about the public perception and how betting evens out.

A 12-5 number 1 or 2 seed vs a 9-8 number 7 seed who just had significant injuries would cause a big betting line.

Maybe it would be 9 1/2 instead of 14 but that's an example of how you get that kind of line.

 

If Buffalo goes 15-2 and beats up 2 good AFC West teams on the way to the SB and some NFC wildcard fumble stumbles into the SB then you might get that big line this year.

 

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