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  • 3 weeks later...
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My new analytical model says Cordarrelle Patterson could be the X-Factor to a Patriots title run (comparing him to the most reliable Patriots receiver, Julian Edelman):

New England Patriots
Statistic C. Patterson J. Edelman
Rec. WAR +0.47 +0.37
WAR / Target +0.017 +0.003
Rush. WAR +0.10 +0.07
WAR / Carry +0.002 +0.008

Realistically, the Rush WAR will only matter for volume because they're receivers - Edelman's higher WAR per carry comes from the higher average that jet sweeps bring because they're more unorthodox. Patterson offers more as a runner. However, Patterson's WAR receiving was actually higher than Edelman's, despite Edelman having 80 more targets because Patterson had a much higher TD rate, adjusted yards per catch, and completion rate, and lower interception rate (0 on passes intended for Patterson; 2 on passes intended more Edelman). What I'm really looking at here, though, is WAR per target. 1.7% of a win per target is insane, as shown by it being almost six times that of Edelman's rate. Patterson might be a gadget player, which surely helps his statistics here, but when the ball's in his hands, good things happen. Hopefully Josh can dial up some things to get the ball to Cordarrelle, because when they've done it, it's worked. On passes his way, Brady's been 60% better than average, whereas targeting Edelman it's 14% better (in other words - Patterson's WAR would be way higher if he had a bigger target share). And the kick return value doesn't hurt either.

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@AlNFL19 "Julian Edelman ... most reliable" LOL! (Just making a point here.) That's been the case maybe one season in his career. Between injuries, stupid suspensions, drops, or just someone more reliable being on the team (Welker/Amendola/Gronkowski/Hernandez/White/ect.) Edelman has always been a valuable contributor but rarely have I thought of him as the most reliable option on the team.


That aside, it's no surprise that the one player who seems to love playing on the Patriots this year, (Patterson), is the X-Factor. The only things getting in Patterson's way are: 1. Himself, if he turns the ball over, 2. Josh McDaniels wretched play-calling, or 3. Brady locking in on Gronkowski/Edelman.

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  • 3 weeks later...

So I thought it would be fun to run the greatest destruction in the history of the modern NFL through my WAR model, but it basically just broke it.

New England Patriots 59-0 Tennessee Titans (2009)

WAR New England Tennessee
Total WAR +2.15 -2.16
Offense WAR +1.20 -1.25
Defense WAR +0.94 -0.9
ST WAR +0.01 -0.01
Pass O WAR +0.82 -0.59
Rush O WAR +0.36 -0.66
Pass D WAR +0.44 -0.62
Rush D WAR +0.50 -0.28
Win Chance 100.00% 0.00%

Holy crap, it broke my model. Obviously, these WAR figures should not be possible. That just goes to show, I guess, how utterly terrible the Titans were that day and how utterly great the Patriots were. It should've counted for 2 wins :P . I mean, look at the win chance at the bottom: two teams playing at this level would leave absolutely nothing up to luck (duh). The Patriots would've won this one a million times out of a million (for reference: Pats' win chance against Chargers was 85% - when both played at the level they did, Pats would've won roughly 85% of the time).

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