July 4th Musings

[onejayhawk]

Independence Day is always a rite of passage. It means summer is half over, it's the week before the All Star game in baseball, and it's when I start to seriously consider the NFL season. For 2022 there are pressing issues throughout the team and the first half of the schedule is brutal , though it looks worst right around Thanksgiving. That said, I am optimistic.

Offense:

• WR: Hill is gone but his speed has been replaced and MVS seems to be developing a similar rapport. Pringle and Robinson have been replaced by JuJu and Skyy Moore. JuJu gives us the big receive in the middle depth that has been missing since forever and he blocks well. Hill was a superior slot WR and MVS is not, but Skyy may be or become a very good one. The 5th slot may be Josh Gordon again but he looks to be in much better football shape. Overall, I think the WR group has improved.
• QB: There also seems no doubt that Mahomes is a better version of himself. Last season he was coming off surgery and never completely got his flow going and he still cranked out 4800 yards and 37 TD. Rather than spread the wealth like he did in 2018 and 2019, he loaded up on Hill and Kelce. This offseason he has brought in his receivers for informal throw and catch sessions. In addition to building rapport with them, he also had a chance to work on his own timing and confidence. 
• TE: This may be one of the big surprise areas. Noah Gray had a solid rookie season, but he was mostly used as a blocker. I expect a significant improvement on the 10 targets he had in 2021. The real surprise may be Jody Fortson, who caught all five of his targets in the six games he played. As a converted WR, Fortson brings hands and route mastery that many TE never learn. There also could be a surprise from the 4th TE. Blake Bell returns as the blocking TE, but he will have to fight off a challenge from Matt Bushman.
• RB: This is the offense's big question mark. Clyde has been the clear starter since he was drafted, but he never took the job and ran with it. Part of it is injuries. He should be healthy. Part is the focus on the passing game. That may or may not have changed. Behind CEH there are only question marks. Is Ron Jones or Jerick McKinnon going to seize the RB2 job? What role is Isaiah Pacheo going to play?

Defense:

• DT: Chris Jones is the given. Derrick Nnadi is the known and Turk Wharton is the unknown. George Karlaftis could be the X factor. A lot remains to be seen. 
• DE: Frank Clark is hopefully back to his second half self. Too much of last year he played through injuries. Karlaftis is the other starter and Danna is the depth. Again, much is to be seen but one thing is clear, Karlaftis alone jacks the energy and athleticism up a notch or two. 
• LB: This could be one of the most improved units in the NFL. Nick Bolton had 100 tackles as a rookie playing out of position. Now he is stationed in the middle of the defense, calling the plays and laying the wood. Almost as important, Bolton works well with Willie Gay and it's Gay who will elevate the unit. Leo Chenal could also have a big impact, or they could mostly play a 4-2-5 like last season. They will be more athletic and should be more physical. With Chenal, much more physical. 
• S: One of the stories of OTA/minicamp is Bryan Cook. He's the first real box safety the team has had and he's a hitter. The pair of Thornhill and Reid could be one of the better safety combos in the league, but it's still speculation right now. Reid at least is showing leadership, which the defense needed in the wake of Tyrann Mathieu's departure. Also in the mix is Lonnie Johnson. Again in the theme, the safeties will be bigger, faster, more athletic than last year. 
• CB: Trent McDuffie is not bigger than Charvarius Ward but he is faster and more athletic. The hope is that McDuffie takes the job and never looks back. L'Jarius Sneed needs a better defined role and the CB3 position is open. Fenton could take it. Lonnie Johnson could take it as a CB/S hybrid. Joshua Williams or Deandre Baker could take it. There is a lot of potential  and a lot of flexibility. there is even a fair amount of experience in spite of all the rookies. What we don't have is certainty. 

Contrary to many expectations, the WR and the entire offense should be better. This team will score and score often. Hopefully it will also control the clock better it has. The defense is the real story. Losing Tyrann Mathieu cost them their vocal leader, but there is a bunch of talent ready to step into that role. In spite of all the new faces, this will not be an unusually inexperienced unit. McDuffie, Karlaftis, Cook, and Chenal will be significant pieces, but the defense will be built around Jones, Clark, Bolton, Reid and Sneed. Reid is new and many roles will change, but these are young veterans. As a group, the defense is younger, bigger, faster, more athletic and much more physical. With an attacking mindset, they could do some damage. 

The other story is special teams. The team brought in specialists like Deon Bush and Chris Lammons however they also drafted a bunch of DB. One in particular looks like a ST ace to me, Nazeeh Johnson. Bryan Cook, Joshua Williams, Jaylon Watson, Mike Rose, all profile as core ST, while Zayne Anderson returns for experience. 

Whatever else is true, the 2022 Chiefs will have a very different look and feel from the 2021 version. Given the difficulty of the early schedule, things could get rocky. Still, I'm optimistic. Let's rock this house.

Happy 4th.

J