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Will 2 teams from the same conference make the playoffs ???

Iamcanadian

By Iamcanadian
in College Football

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Iamcanadian

Iamcanadian

Posted
Posted

As of right now, it is Alabama, Miami, Oklahoma and Clemson, with Wisconsin 5th. If Wisconsin only loses 1, but wins the Big 10, will they beat out Clemson???

I think the winner of the Big 10 gets in and whoever loses out in the ACC does not. The Big 10 represents a huge TV audience and money talks, what say you!!!

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NateDawg

NateDawg

Posted
Posted

An undefeated Wisconsin gets in. A one loss conference champion Badgers probably does not. A two loss OSU conference champion would need help. If Bama loses to Auburn, they probably get in over a two loss conference champion OSU. If Bama wins out, it’s pretty black and white with one SEC school.  The winner of Clemson/Miami is in. Clemson is out with a loss, and the Canes have a chance if they lose close.

Conference title week is going to be really interesting this year. I don’t see Notre Dame really in the mix, unless there’s a lot of chaos. They get no conference title. Their status may hurt USC also, if both were to have two losses, because the Irish blew USC out. Big Ten champ, whether it a no loss UW or two loss OSU probably gets the nod over those two teams. The outcome of Miami/Clemson and the Bama/Auburn games will determine a lot. If Auburn wins out, they probably make it as a two-loss champ, to go along with Bama as your one losser, similar to how OSU got in last year. Bama wouldn’t get in over a no loss Badgers team but probably does over a conference title OSU. UGA is in if they win out, which obviously would require a win over either Bama or Auburn.

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BigD88

BigD88

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure how you can possibly justify leaving out a one loss Miami if their only loss is to Clemson in the ACC title game. An undefeated team in the regular season shouldn't get jumped by a 2 loss conference champ. (This is assuming OSU beats Wisconsin)

Same would go for 'Bama if they were to somehow slip up and lose the SECCG.

So yeah, I think it's very possible that two teams from the same conference make it.

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CWood21

CWood21

Posted
Posted

Probably not.  It'd take a near ideal situation to leave a one-loss conference champ over a one-loss conference non-champ.  Looking at this the rest of the way.

Alabama - Pretty straight forward.  They win out, they're in. Hell, even a loss against Auburn wouldn't end their chances.  As long as they win their conference, they'll be in the playoffs.

Clemson/Miami - Likely playing for the same playoff spot.  Can't imagine a one loss Miami or a two-loss Clemson would make it over a two-loss Georgia.

Oklahoma - Win out, and they're in.  Pretty straight forward.

Wisconsin - Like Oklahoma, win out and they're in.  One loss, and they're pretty much eliminated.

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NateDawg

NateDawg

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, cp0k2 said:

Keep in mind that Clemson and Ohio State's Athletic Directors are on the committee. 

I’m not sure how a playoff selection process can be considered neutral under this type of setup, regardless of how fair the respective ADs attempt to be. 

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ak23

ak23

Posted
Posted

Alabama losing to Auburn probably shouldn't get in. The head to head comparison with OSU isn't pretty. 

Bama will be 11-1 with no conference championship and wins vs 9-3/8-4 LSU (by 14),  @ 9-3/8-4 MSU (by 7), vs 9-3/8-4 Fresno State (by 31).

OSU will be 11-2 with a conference championship and wins over 12-1/11-2 Wisconsin (neutral site), @ 9-3/8-4 Michigan, vs 9-3 Michigan State (by 45), vs 10-2 Penn State (by 1) and vs 10-2/9-3 Army (by 31). 

Doesn't seem to me like Bama wins favorably that comparison. Especially considering precedent of the committee caring who you beat, not who you lose to.   

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PAW

PAW

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I don't see us getting passed by Ohio State, Notre Dame, or a 2 loss Georgia team even if Miami beats us.  Our resume would be better than those 3.  I can see us getting left out if Auburn runs the table and they put a 1 loss Bama team in even with an awful resume due to the Bama effect. Wisconsin has to win out for the B1G to get a spot IMO.

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BigD88

BigD88

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, PAW said:

I don't see us getting passed by Ohio State, Notre Dame, or a 2 loss Georgia team even if Miami beats us.  Our resume would be better than those 3.  I can see us getting left out if Auburn runs the table and they put a 1 loss Bama team in even with an awful resume due to the Bama effect. Wisconsin has to win out for the B1G to get a spot IMO.

Recency bias would absolutely put Clemson in danger of getting passed by OSU in that scenario, regardless of all the arguments made by Hocutt in Clemson's favor tonight.

I don't think they could possibly justify a two loss conference champion OSU getting in over a 1 loss Miami who ran through the regular season undefeated and whose only loss would be to Clemson in the ACCCG.

But a scenario like the one you lay out, I can totally see them simply taking a look at 2 two loss teams, and simply taking the conference champion in that scenario. And yes, the OSU brand would definitely play a part in it just like it did last year. (Before anyone comes at me, that's not some veiled shot... I understood and even agreed with the reasoning for OSU last year. But this year, for OSU to get in would be a complete 180 from that logic if that scenario plays out)

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RandyMossIsBoss

RandyMossIsBoss

Posted
Posted

How do you think the committee ranks the following? (I know some of these could not simultaneously exist)

12-1 Miami (non champ)

12-1 Wisconsin (B1G champ)

11-2 Ohio St (B1G champ)

11-2 Auburn (SEC champ)

11-1 Alabama (non champ)

12-1 Alabama (non champ)

11-2 TCU (Big 12 champ)

11-2 Oklahoma St (Big 12 champ)

11-2 Oklahoma (non champ)

11-2 USC (Pac 12 champ)

11-2 Clemson (non champ)

11-2 Georgia (non champ)

 

 

I would say

  1. 11-2 Auburn (SEC champ)
  2. 12-1 Wisconsin (B1G champ)
  3. 11-2 Ohio St (B1G champ)
  4. 12-1 Alabama (non champ)
  5. 12-1 Miami (non champ)
  6. 11-2 Oklahoma St (Big 12 champ)
  7. 11-2 TCU (Big 12 champ)
  8. 11-2 Georgia (non champ)
  9. 11-2 Clemson (non champ)
  10. 11-1 Alabama (non champ)
  11. 11-2 USC (Pac 12 champ)
  12. 11-2 Oklahoma (non champ)

I think these 4 are where it's tricky, and 3/4 of them could conceivably happen too. I guess it would depend on how much they value the B1G championship, since a 1 loss non champ Bama and Miami have far better resumes than a 1 loss champ Wisconsin or 2 loss champ OSU. 11/12 teams that have made it won their conference, but then last year we saw 1 loss OSU make it over 2 loss champ PSU (who beat OSU). They had OSU at 3 though, perhaps suggesting it wasn't that close in their mind? Who knows, there is not a whole lot of precedent for tight races. 

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Raves

Raves

Posted
Posted

The argument for Ohio State last year was that they had some good wins and their 1 loss was very good.  Even though they loss the h2h vs Penn State, Penn State was a 2 loss team with a bad loss.  It was probably easy for them to argue that the loss to Penn State was a freak loss and therefore put Ohio State in over Penn State.  This year I really dont' see an argument to make that has Ohio State as a realistic option for the playoffs besides name brand.

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MWil23

MWil23

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Raves said:

The argument for Ohio State last year was that they had some good wins and their 1 loss was very good.  Even though they loss the h2h vs Penn State, Penn State was a 2 loss team with a bad loss.  It was probably easy for them to argue that the loss to Penn State was a freak loss and therefore put Ohio State in over Penn State.  This year I really dont' see an argument to make that has Ohio State as a realistic option for the playoffs besides name brand.

The ONLY way OSU makes the playoff is if the following happens:

*Alabama wins out, beating Auburn (giving them 3 losses) and Georgia (giving them 2 losses and no conference title)

*Miami wins out, beating Clemson, giving them 2 losses and no conference title

*Oklahoma wins out, leaving them with 1 loss, a conference title, and H2H win against OSU.

*Notre Dame has 2 losses, no conference championship/title game. They're out. Plus they could still lose to Stanford.

*Ohio State wins out, beating an undefeated Wisconsin...however, Wisconsin would have only 1 loss to OSU's 2 losses, but with a pretty weak SOS.

Regardless, I've said it before and I'll say it again, OSU shouldn't be in the playoffs this year. They got housed twice, once against an unranked Iowa team. That said, they'd still have several ranked wins on their schedule and would be arguably the most deserving 2 loss team, if there is such a thing.

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