CWood21 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, MWil23 said: Gotcha. The usage of the word/phrase go undefeated, as well as the phrase "someone has to lose" present tense, was confusing. I probably could have worded it better. LIS, I think it's going to take a very unusual situation where you've got two teams and one of them had to lose in order to have two teams from the same conference in the playoffs. I suppose it could happen this year with the ACC (Clemson beats Miami in the ACC Championship), and the Big 10 somehow knocks itself out with a Wisconsin loss to Michigan or Minnesota, but beats Ohio State in the Big 10 championship. But even then, you'd have a one-loss Wisconsin (conference champ) against a one-loss Miami (conference non-champ). Does the Notre Dame win for Miami weigh more than the Ohio State win enough to outweigh the fact that Wisconsin won the Big 10? I'd lean towards no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Just now, CWood21 said: I probably could have worded it better. LIS, I think it's going to take a very unusual situation where you've got two teams and one of them had to lose in order to have two teams from the same conference in the playoffs. I suppose it could happen this year with the ACC (Clemson beats Miami in the ACC Championship), and the Big 10 somehow knocks itself out with a Wisconsin loss to Michigan or Minnesota, but beats Ohio State in the Big 10 championship. But even then, you'd have a one-loss Wisconsin (conference champ) against a one-loss Miami (conference non-champ). Does the Notre Dame win for Miami weigh more than the Ohio State win enough to outweigh the fact that Wisconsin won the Big 10? I'd lean towards no. Yeah, I think it's a complex issue. For example, how does one weight strength of schedule? If USC and Michigan State lose/continue to lose, as well as Stanford losing a 4th game, then suddenly Notre Dame has beaten next to no one. Worst case scenario now would also include an OU loss, meaning that the Big 12, the Pac 12, and possibly the B1G Ten all have 2 loss conference champions. I think that the ACC is pretty cut and dry with the winner of the Miami/Clemson game going. What happens if Miami is undefeated and then loses to Clemson would be intriguing. They should still be ahead of any of those Big/Pac/B1G 2 loss teams, but I'm not sure if they will or not. Last year OSU beat out a 2 loss conference champion PSU team who BEAT them head to head due to the 2nd loss, so Miami shouldn't be penalized playing that extra game, but the 2 in one conference unwritten rule could make things a nightmare. I feel like Alabama losing to Auburn and missing out on the SEC Title game would mean that they'd get the 2016 OSU treatment (mentioned above), but what if Georgia then BEATS Auburn? They're probably in, hence the Miami/Clemson problem under that scenario. Chances are it sorts itself out, but under these scenarios it could be drawing names out of a hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mastercheddaar Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, MWil23 said: I feel like Alabama losing to Auburn and missing out on the SEC Title game would mean that they'd get the 2016 OSU treatment (mentioned above), but what if Georgia then BEATS Auburn? They're probably in, hence the Miami/Clemson problem under that scenario. If that happens then it'll be Bama at 1, Georgia at 2, Auburn at 3, and oh I don't know Vanderbilt at 4. All SEC all the time!!!! At least that's what ESPN would want. That is all Mastercheddaar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak23 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 16 hours ago, CWood21 said: I still think they'd take a two-loss Ohio State over a one-loss Miami (assuming they lose their conference championship). Compare the resumes. Miami's best wins would be over 10-2/9-3 Notre Dame by 33, 9-3 VT by 18, 6-5 GT by 1, 10-3/11-2 Toledo by 22. Those wins are all at home. On quality measures (Advanced Stats, Margin of Victory, YPP differentials etc) they would undoubtedly be behind OSU. OSU would have (1) the conference championship bonus and (2) wins over 12-1/11-2 Wisconsin (neutral site), 10-2 Penn State by 1, 9-3/8-4 Michigan, on the road, 9-3 Michigan State by 45, and 10-2/9-3 Army by 31. OSU will definitely win the quality metrics. Seems like OSU has clearly the better wins, better quality measures. The big question will be how much the committee weights losses. Is losing to Iowa by 31 (!!) enough to preclude a team from making it? My guess is no, especially considering Miami struggled to beat Florida State, UNC, GT, and Syracuse. But Miami does have good wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NateDawg Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 The Big XII is actually a bit intriguing. I was surprised by the Sooners being ranked below both Miami and Clemson. They have three top 10 wins, 2 of which are on the road. If they win out, no worries. However, let’s say TCU beats OU in the Big XII title game and OSU wins out. OU obviously won the H2H with OSU. However, then you have a 2-loss OU, a 2-loss conference champion TCU, and a 2-loss conference champion OSU. Big XII would be in trouble. TCU isn’t jumping up over OSU, and you don’t put OU over a TCU that they would have lost to in the conference title game. With that said, I think the Sooners win out. That offense is tough for anyone to stop right now. If they did lose though, and Clemson lost to Miami, I’d bet the ACC gets two teams and the Big XII is on the outs. Still do not see USC/UND getting back into the top 4. Lots of football left and interesting scenarios that could play out. Badgers could always kill a lot of the intrigue and beat OSU, which would seemingly make things cut and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenShore Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Clemson/Miami is most likely if Clemson beats Miami in a nail biter or a debatable call to decide the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRider Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 On 11/16/2017 at 6:15 PM, GreenShore said: Clemson/Miami is most likely if Clemson beats Miami in a nail biter or a debatable call to decide the game. No chance a one loss Miami team makes the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iamcanadian Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 You would have to calculate SOS to figure out the likely combinations, but a 2nd conference team will likely struggle to get in. The Big 10 looks like the most vulnerable, but they offer a huge TV audience and money counts when deciding playoff teams, so you cannot count out their conference Champion. If Alabama or Oklahoma go down, anything becomes possible. Could be some ugly choices out there if all goes wrong??? Leaving out conference champions and you could see the playoff format changed to add four more teams, because the left out conference will not take it lightly. This year is quite different than before, since the Big 12 added a playoff game. It was easy to leave them out without one, but that is gone now??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 13 hours ago, Iamcanadian said: You would have to calculate SOS to figure out the likely combinations, but a 2nd conference team will likely struggle to get in. The Big 10 looks like the most vulnerable, but they offer a huge TV audience and money counts when deciding playoff teams, so you cannot count out their conference Champion. If Alabama or Oklahoma go down, anything becomes possible. Could be some ugly choices out there if all goes wrong??? Leaving out conference champions and you could see the playoff format changed to add four more teams, because the left out conference will not take it lightly. This year is quite different than before, since the Big 12 added a playoff game. It was easy to leave them out without one, but that is gone now??? I don't think there's any way you can leave out a one-loss Oklahoma out of the playoffs. There aren't four programs with better resumes. The better question is would a two-loss Ohio State/USC/Washington jump a one-loss conference non-champ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iamcanadian Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 Well, it looks like Alabama is done , Miami certainly is out if it loses to Clemson. Makes for an exciting close to the season!!! SEC Champ Big 12 Champ ACC Champ Wisconsin if they win the Big 10, otherwise, Big 10 champion vs Pac 10 Champion for final spot. In all likelihood, the Big 10 champion will get in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmart128 Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 5 hours ago, Iamcanadian said: Well, it looks like Alabama is done , Miami certainly is out if it loses to Clemson. Makes for an exciting close to the season!!! SEC Champ Big 12 Champ ACC Champ Wisconsin if they win the Big 10, otherwise, Big 10 champion vs Pac 10 Champion for final spot. In all likelihood, the Big 10 champion will get in. I disagree. I think if TCU beats Oklahoma then Alabama gets in. And I think if Ohio State beats Wisconsin then it would come down to Alabama and Ohio State for that last spot. I want Wisconsin, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Auburn to make it. However I have a feeling it's going to be Oklahoma, Clemson, Auburn, and Alabama. Think Wisconsin loses to Ohio State. And they give it to the one loss Bama team over the Big 10 champs. Pretty sure at this point all Pac 12 teams are out unless something crazy happens like Wisconsin, Clemson, Oklahoma and Auburn all lose. And even then I see it as Ohio State, Alabama, TCU, and Georgia getting in if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 As of this moment, my top 4 is: 1. Clemson 2. Oklahoma 3. Wisconsin 4. Georgia Georgia has to play Auburn, and with two losses and beating Alabama, we might see a case of Ohio State/Penn State next year if they win the SECCG. It'd be chaotic. Needless to say, I hope all four of these teams with their CCG so that it keeps Alabama out. Tired of their BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catcheryea Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 an sec champion who has beaten 3 top 5 teams in 4 weeks including bama is not getting left out of the playoffs so that bama can get in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 My prediction is 1. Clemson 2. Oklahoma 3. Auburn 4. Ohio State Oklahoma over auburn Clemson over Ohio State Clemson over Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 My prediction: OSU beats Wiscy Clemson beats Miami OU beats TCU 1. Clemson 2. OU 3. Georgia/Auburn winner 4. Bama So yes, I think we get two SEC teams in this year's playoffs. Bama is going to sit and get rested for their playoff game while others are out there earning it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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