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Who's on your do not draft list this year?


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11 hours ago, Art_Vandalay said:

28yo with all that mileage, I'd probably feel like I had to take him if he dropped to 1.09. But I wouldn't feel good about it, and I'd definitely take another RB in Rd 2.

So this is what I did, but reversed, last season. Took Henry 1.2, then another RB in R2. My WR corps, consequently, felt a bit left behind. I usually do go double RB, and I haven't won for a few seasons now.

I may target WR early this time. NOT SURE GAHHH

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  • 2 months later...
On 8/14/2022 at 12:46 PM, Forge said:

Generally speaking I don't have a "do not draft" guys because for the most part, even with guys I'm super bearish on there is a point where the value just makes sense. Instead, I have a list of guys that I know that I'll probably have 0 shares on this year because I probably rank them a full round lower than where they are going. Doesn't mean that I don't think that they'll be awesome, just means that I don't think that they'll be value efficient. Also, please note that I'm mostly going off consensus rankings at draftpros. Individual ADP can vary pretty wildly by site. 

1. Deebo Samuel. Some places have him as a top 5 receiver and a top 20 pick. Hell, on ESPN his average pick is 13 which is the 11th highest.  I'm not that bullish on him. I think the niners offense will be very run heavy (and he will not be running as much), I think statistically he's due for some regression (he had a historically great run after the catch season last year and he's not a red zone guy), and I think Aiyuk is going to break out. He also has a pretty extended injury history which right now is not baked into his ADP, and that's a risk.  I tend to avoid guys who have historically great seasons in some context the following year because natural regression, and given additional factors mentioned, this is a pretty easy one for me to avoid (for those wondering why Kupp wouldn't be in consideration here, his season was so good that if he regressed 100 points, he'd still finish as WR1 in some leagues...Kupp can regress and I think you're still likely to get a top 3-5 WR...I think there's a reasonable chance that Deebo finishes outside of the WR top ten). 

2. Mark Andrews. Generally speaking I just don't like risking a pick this high on a tight end. I'm a 0 TE guy, so my style of play is partially to blame for this decision. Andrews is awesome. Top 3 TE in the league. Baltimore has no receivers, so on the surface he should get a ton of target shares. But here's the thing...like George Kittle circa 2018 when he shred the league with Nick Mullens,  I'm pretty concerned about how he crushed it with a backup quarterback. This split really bothers me - 5.3 rec, 67.6 yds, .4 td / g compared to 8.6 rec, 110 yards, .8 td /g. The former is what he did with Lamar early in the year, the latter is what he did with Huntley at the end of the year. And yes, you can bring up the lack of receiving options for the Ravens, but here's the thing, it wasn't all that different last year because Batemen didn't come back until week 6 and Sammy Watkins wasn't a thing. It was basically Andrews and Hollywood. The two years before last season? 4.2 rec/g, 53.6 yd / g, .6 td / g. This is still a Greg Roman running led attack.  He's going as a top 25 pick nearly everywhere in ppr. This is insane to me. There is too much evidence that he's not going to be worth anything near that and way too  He's going 20+ picks before Darren Waller. Guys you can get in range are Fournette, Barkley, AJ Brown, etc. 

3. David Montgomery, Antonio Gibson, Josh Jacobs (you can include James Connor in this list as well as he actually kicks off this tier as the RB before Montgomery) - Every year there is a dead spot for running backs where you prefer the next tier of guys and this is that area (With the exception of Cam Akers who is also being drafted around this tier). These guys are going around your RB17 - 20, and they are going in the top 50 overall (In Mongtomery's case, he's pretty much an across the board top 40 pick in PPR and Connor is going as a top 30 pick at ESPN). No good. Use this pick on another position in the area. WRs going in this area are Waddle, Scary Terry, Diontae and DJ Moore. All far superior values. Kittle and Waller are also going in this area. I'm not sure Montgomery is a clear cut workhorse #1 for Chicago, which may end up with the worst offense in football regardless. I have no reason to believe that Gibson or Jacobs are getting substantial passing work and Gibson has a tendency to put the ball on the ground and get hurt. The next four running backs by ADP after these guys are Etienne, Elijah Mitchell, JK Dobbins and Breece Hall, each of whom I'd much, much rather have. If you pick the receiver and miss out on those 4, the next guys up would be CEH, AJ Dillon and Miles Sanders, none of whom I feel worse about than these three/four if we are being honest.

*****Note that there has been some movement in this tier and this is becoming a lot more condensed. I'm seeing Gibson dropping down quite a bit and guys like Hall move ahead of him. 

4. Javonte Williams - This is simple. If he's really splitting time / carries with Melvin Gordon, he's simply not worth a top 25 pick overall. I don't think that it's that controversial. In a split backfield, he shouldn't be going ahead of Barkley, Fournette or even Chubb. ESPN has him at RB12. Too much risk for me that high until I know what that backfield really looks like. I know that Gordon got nicked up in practice or something the other day, but I haven't heard anything about a long term issue. I didn't group him in with the last tier just because there is at least legit upside here. I'm going to have 0 shares of any of those guys. There's a world where other people get nervous about Williams' share and he drops from 21 to 29 and I'm on my third pick at 29 and I would "reach" for him because I know he won't be there when it comes back around. 

5. Chris Godwin - Obviously, a lot of this is injury related. I don't think that Tampa is going to press him into action and I think it's weird that on average he's going as overall player 55-60? Like, that seems high for a guy we are unsure of health wise. ESPN has him overall 54 in PPR, with an average pick of 68, but that's still 20 picks higher than Adam Thielen and Allen Robinson? That just seems off. Obviously he's going to give you WR1 production by the middle of the season, but I don't know if this discount in pick is good enough to wait several weeks of the season. Hopkins is going around pick 100. 

6. Top 100 D/ST - The bills special teams is going as a top 70 pick in ESPN and Yahoo...Wut? ESPN has the Packers and Saints also in the top 100, while Yahoo includes Tampa, SF, LAR  and Indy as top 100 picks. Don't do that. 

Checking in on this: 

1) I'm claiming victory here for right now. Deebo is the #21 receiver in PPR leagues on a ppg basis or there about. If you remove limited sample guys Michael Thomas and Deandre Hopkins, he moves into the top 20 at around #19. He also missed a game. 

2) Okay, I'm taking the L on this. If he had been healthy all year, he would have made this a worthwhile pick at where he was going. given that he hasn't been prone to injuries in the past, hard to prognosticate that.  I still stand by the logic; I think it was sound. But I think Andrews has just leveled up a bit, is all. 

3) This is mostly fine....except for Josh Jacobs. Holy awful miss there, batman! But I don't feel too bad...nobody saw this coming. The rest was pretty on point, I think. There's some rotten injury luck in there in my methodology  (Elijah Mitchell, Dobbins, Hall, Penny  all got hurt if you waited on the next tier and Waller has had issues if you went that way) but sometimes that is the way it goes. You could have also gotten guys who are likely going to be big time league winners this year in Etienne and Kenneth Walker. But besides Jacobs, I don't believe any of those other guys named are in the top 20 running backs when it comes to PPR. But if you got derailed by the injuries of the guys behind them you're probably not doing too well either. If you picked Waddle and Etienne, there's a good chance that you could win your league. If you took Diontae and Dobbins, you're probably not very good. 

4) Obviously the injury makes this an easy win, but from a process standpoint, lets rule that out. Its really hard to say where this season would have gone if he had stayed healthy. Through 4 games he was only averaging about 10 points per game, definitely not great for where he was getting drafted. I suppose it could have gotten better, but seeing the status of the Denver offense and having a 4 game sample where he wasn't all that great, I see no reason to think that it was going to get that much better. The offense just isn't working and I don't think he changes that all that much. 

5) Godwin. Hilariously, I should have heeded my own advice. I actually did end up taking him in my big money league and I took him at #60. Right now, he's like WR 36 on a points per game basis in ppr leagues. So this was a clear victory in my thinking...but then I just didn't listen to myself lol. That being said, I think this is going to come around and I think that this would have been an L already if the tampa offense wasn't a dumpster fire for whatever reason. I almost feel like I've lucked into a victory with this so far. And I have to imagine that there's some positive touchdown regression coming on. He's been incredibly consistent in his game, and if he gets some TDs this can probably turn into an L when you just examine the end result. 

6) Defenses going this early is just a bad fantasy move. I stand by this. The bills are doing fine (depending on your scoring, they are probably somewhere in the 2-5 range), but I don't think that they are worth that much. The packers and saints would have been particularly brutal to draft that early. 

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On 7/29/2022 at 12:56 AM, NYRaider said:

Some of my picks:


James Conner (ADP: 31.8)

D'Andre Swift (ADP: 13.9)

Cam Akers (ADP: 34.7)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP: 62.3)

Damien Harris (ADP: 69.2)


Amari Cooper (ADP: 53.4)

Diontae Johnson (ADP: 39.9)

DK Metcalf (ADP: 46.2)

Drake London (ADP: 77.0)

Treylon Burks (ADP: 86.3)

Most of these were hits, lol.

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  • 4 weeks later...

I didn't post mine but the guys I was avoiding are:

Austin Ekler - Missed on this one but given there had not been a RB over 27 to finish top 3 or 5 since LeSean McCoy made me nervous that high and I thought Spiller or someone would also get some reps.  Turns out being a WR helps a lot but I am still nervous on him in future years. 

Najee Harris - He had a horrible YPC last year, he just had a lot of touches and with a new QB, it just didnt feel like a safe pick in the first or second.  

James Connor - Between injuries and questions about other backs there, I figured he would be over drafted and turns out I am right.  If he fell a couple of more rounds I would have but not at his 3rd-4th round price. 

Marquise Brown - I didn't like him going to a crowded WR room and he never had consistent production in Baltimore.  He was going in that 5th round range with others like ARSB, Mooney, Godwin, Bateman and I was all over ARSB of that group.  

Gabe Davis - I figured he would be a streaky player who gave you a big week here and there but not good enough to get consistent points week to week.  No way I was paying his inflated price this year. 

Guys I liked a lot and targeted earlier than ADP:

ARSB - I almost kept him over Deebo in one league and should have went with my gut.  He is a stud and if healthy all year he would be a top 5 WR.  Still is top 10 with missing almost two games. 

Hunter Renfrow - I figured with Adams taking coverage away, he would still have a big year.  Not as big as last year but still higher than many of the WRs drafted before him in that Mooney range.  Turns out they all were trash and/or hurt and Renfrow was not targeted when he was healthy.  I blame McDaniels for this. 

Kenneth Walker - It took Penny getting hurt to get a real chance but I figured his talent would get him on the field at some point.  Others in the round or two before him didnt have nearly the upside and had lower floors IMO so I definitely targets him.  Unfortunately many of my leagues are full of MSU fans so he went earlier than I could get him in my big money league but have him in two others.

Antonio Gibson - This was iffy early on but he has been solid lately since injuries opened it up for him.  I didnt think Robinson was a true threat early and although he may eventually, I liked the value with where he was getting drafted.  

Michael Thomas - I thought people had forgot how good he is when on the field and he was going relatively late for a WR1. Turns out he is never on the field.  Ive had to drop him in a few leagues unfortunately. 


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On 7/30/2022 at 9:35 AM, adamq said:

Alan Lazard is going way too high 

Cam Sutton and Amon Ra St Brown.. I need to see more before taking them over the likes of Lockett, Renfrow, ARob etc

Tua is brittle, no thanks

James Connor had a remarkable season, but at his ADP I'd rather bet on someone a little more proven.

Also out on Friermuth, Gesicki, Knox.. Very in on Kelce, Schultz, Kmet


And Aaron Rodgers... non football reasons, but I'm good



Lazard has done quite well but is anyone confident in starting him week to week? I still wouldn't be. Should have believed in ASRB.. thinking ARob would bounce back was pretty bad

Edited by adamq
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